What the code for a probability-of-touch model looks like
Widely known, easy
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
Widely known, easy
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π3
BTW,
$BTC just dumped to $93k
$SOL dumped to $215
Both immediately bounced back⦠for now
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
$BTC just dumped to $93k
$SOL dumped to $215
Both immediately bounced back⦠for now
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π4
$BTC continuing to fly upward out after that dump
$BTC & $ETH did too at first,
β¦but both now looking like theyβre anticipating that $BTC has over-corrected in the short termβ¦
Weβll see
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
$BTC & $ETH did too at first,
β¦but both now looking like theyβre anticipating that $BTC has over-corrected in the short termβ¦
Weβll see
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π4
DoomPosting
Will $XRP have a meme wave, or not? So far XRPβs meme offerings have been quite empty Remember many other majors which recently pumped, did not β TRON, BNB, etc ^^ Above is the entire list of XRP memecoins made in the past month, which have achieved $1M+β¦
Checking in on $XRP memes
Bad, pretty bad, doing much worse than $SOL & $ETH memecoins are rn
What does that tell me?
Tells me that $XRP whales are expecting $XRP to tank hard soon, exactly as it did in its last 2 spikes
β And you definitely donβt want to be holding memecoins on a platform whose coin is about to tank
Memecoins are for when a platformβs token has recently surged, and that price is expected to roughly hold if not grow, but not grow as hugely as at the start of the surge
β so rotation to memecoins & other new coins, where huge growth is still happening, happens after the majors surge
But
This rotation doesnβt happen at all if itβs expected that the major coin will simply totally collapse
You donβt want to be heavy on memes on a platform whose coin totally collapses
β Which feels like exactly what the market is anticipating with $XRP
$XPR market expecting $XRP spike to be short-lived, soon collapse, it seems
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
Bad, pretty bad, doing much worse than $SOL & $ETH memecoins are rn
What does that tell me?
Tells me that $XRP whales are expecting $XRP to tank hard soon, exactly as it did in its last 2 spikes
β And you definitely donβt want to be holding memecoins on a platform whose coin is about to tank
Memecoins are for when a platformβs token has recently surged, and that price is expected to roughly hold if not grow, but not grow as hugely as at the start of the surge
β so rotation to memecoins & other new coins, where huge growth is still happening, happens after the majors surge
But
This rotation doesnβt happen at all if itβs expected that the major coin will simply totally collapse
You donβt want to be heavy on memes on a platform whose coin totally collapses
β Which feels like exactly what the market is anticipating with $XRP
$XPR market expecting $XRP spike to be short-lived, soon collapse, it seems
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π4π―2π1π1
$SOL & $ETH memecoin performance over recent days, for comparison
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π4
My latest memecoin launch success rate charts
Also did cactus style survival plots, which can give you more immediate estimates of current market conditions, without having to wait for a delay to measure success
β but this one gives you a clearer picture of how memecoin launch success relates to market conditions in general
= Massively improved success rates & ROIs soon after big surges, and the bigger the surge the bigger that increase
Wave analogy theory β when it comes to new launches, timing the market really does matter
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
Also did cactus style survival plots, which can give you more immediate estimates of current market conditions, without having to wait for a delay to measure success
β but this one gives you a clearer picture of how memecoin launch success relates to market conditions in general
= Massively improved success rates & ROIs soon after big surges, and the bigger the surge the bigger that increase
Wave analogy theory β when it comes to new launches, timing the market really does matter
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π5π―3π3
Koreans loading up on $XRP
This is going to turn out just great
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
This is going to turn out just great
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π8β€βπ₯2
Longish-term downward slide of $SOL/$BTC over past few days
IIRC often tends to lead up to dumpsβ¦
Will see later if I can chart the accuracy of such SOL/BTC-based predictions
Thereβs some trickiness in that itβs very unclear the timespan over which such βpredictionsβ by the SOL/BTC price apply, even if totally real, itβs likely that the timespan is non-stationary, varying over time, and predicting over multiple timeframes at once.
Will think about it
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
IIRC often tends to lead up to dumpsβ¦
Will see later if I can chart the accuracy of such SOL/BTC-based predictions
Thereβs some trickiness in that itβs very unclear the timespan over which such βpredictionsβ by the SOL/BTC price apply, even if totally real, itβs likely that the timespan is non-stationary, varying over time, and predicting over multiple timeframes at once.
Will think about it
π³πΎπΎπΌπΏπΎπ π πΈπ½πΆ
π6
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π17π―5π’2π1