Hunter's last three hours of full immunity

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GM

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Wonder if there’s a name for when they make a smooth, curved, rainbow of death like that

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yup

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GM

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memecoins when vitalik tries to stop them but they just keep reproducin

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Now: Martial law declared in South Korea

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$94k $BTC

$221 $SOL

Both continuing to drop, as crypto lines up for the next surge

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MVRV at 2.592

Hasn’t budged in a while

In line with where it’s been prior to past big surges

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Prediction marketes giving 67% odds of $SOL hitting $200 this month

BUT WAIT

Now realizing why these crypto prediction market odds are so often so far off

These betters aren’t putting any real effort into trying to predict the future prices

No

Bet these betters are simply doing arbitrage against the crypto options markets

I.e. taking a probability-of-touch model, assuming the classic Black-Scholes model of Brownian Motion, inputing current options info, outputting implied odds,

and then you do arbitrage between the crypto options markets and these prediction market prices, if the two sufficiently differ

Problem?

Yes, big problem

Those methods have awful success rates, all kinds of things distort options prices from being good predictions of future price touching

These betters likely only do this at all because it’s a guaranteed win for them

Yeah, bet that solves the mystery

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What the code for a probability-of-touch model looks like

Widely known, easy

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