For comparison, typical prediction market accuracy, i.e. a calibration plot, for sports betting

— which is typically relatively very easy

= very accurate

= straight line on the calibration plot

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Meanwhile, in some other areas, prediction markets have been found to be quite a bit worse at producing accurate odds than they are for sports betting

— showing up as those types of predictions being far off of this diagonal line of the calibration plot

(And ofc the length of time before the predicted event tends to make the points further or closer from this diagonal too.)

So, strongly suspecting crypto prices prediction markets are similarly terribly inaccurate, much like some of the other events for which prediction markets are far less accurate, as shown here.

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Quick attempt at roughly aligning the $BTC prices with the polymarket odds of $BTC reaching $90k before the end of the year over time

— Yeah, looking pretty terribly-miscalibrated to me

Was at just ~10% at the beginning of the month, and then just barely rising to ~20% a few days before ATH hit, only finally shooting up to near ~100% when the price was practically touching $90k

Sure seems like the prediction markets serially under-estimate the odds.

If true, would guess because there’s so much more money to be made just by playing the markets directly for this bet, e.g. via leverage, rather than using these markets. Or maybe not.

Really want to see a calibration plot for the accuracy of these prediction markets on crypto price bets.

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👀 COIN ALERT:

Name: Official Mascot of the Holy Year
Thickness: 0.114 ❌
Liquidity: $288_892
Cap: $6_388_976
Created: 1.2h ago
Refreshed: 9.5s ago
Address: CBdCxKo9QavR9hfShgpEBG3zekorAeD7W1jfq2o3pump
Warning: Low amount of LP Providers - Only a few users are providing liquidity

Note: experimental, still testing. Do not share.

$LUCE is ascending

Now up from $6.48M to $280M

= 40x

^^ FYI, above is the alert from our experimental best-coin launch detection system, which greenlights about 1 in 2000 coin launches, and which flagged us to $LUCE’s potential within 1 hour of its launch

(Uses a small set of unique factors which we won’t reveal.)

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So, interesting thing about this kinda junk one I was watching out of curiosity, without buying

— Is that the pre-drawn lines ended up perfectly indicating where it was a good time to sell

Seeing this in the memecoins says to me that there are 100% amateurs involved in lots of these coins, no pros you’re competing with

Interesting

(Still not recommending technical analysis as a backbone of memecoin investing, or even perhaps at all.)

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FBI seizes Polymarket CEO’s phone, electronics

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So many crypto influencers with big claims but never any receipts to show

Don’t believe ya bro

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🍃🍃🍃
🍃HIS 🍃🐿️
🍃CLIMB🍃
JUST
DONT
STOP

$PNUT approaching $2B

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$PNUT hits $2.1B

700x for those keeping track at home

JUSTICE FOR PEANUT

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$PNUT daily chart

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