Close enough

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Today?

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GM

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Yup, prices bounced off of this yellow line I drew a few days ago

Upward march continues

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Meanwhile, $BTC seems to be battling these two lines,

between ~$86k rn and $90k

(Not betting big on these, especially not this data alone, just an observation.)

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MVRV has entered the HOT zone

about 2.6

Not a critical level like 3.0, but definitely hot

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My take on where we’re at & where we’re going this cycle—

So, if you ignore noise from the initial market launch frenzy in ~2011, and ignore noise from the 2020 covid crash, ensuing mass money printing, and ensuing market collapse

— suddenly a pattern becomes super clear:

+ 3 MVRV humps every cycle:

(1) Yellow: 1st a smaller, slightly fuzzier hump, driven by renewed hype as the market rises from the bottom of the cycle, peaking somewhere around halving

(2) Orange: 2nd, not long after the US presidential elections, we rise into a much larger and clearer 2nd hump

(3) Green: 3rd an even larger and super-clear 3rd giga-hump, whose peak finally marks the top of the cycle

So how long from election day, to the peak of the 3rd hump, marking the peak of the cycle?

Turns out this seems to be shockingly consistent as well:

Nov 2012 — Dec 2013 = 13 months from election day to peak

Nov 2016 — Dec 2017 = 13 months from election day to peak

Nov 2020 — Nov 2021 = 12 months from election day to peak (despite 2020 cycle being a bit screwed up)

Nov 2024 — Dec 2025? = 13 months from election day to peak yet again?

So there you have it.

+ Always 3 humps

+ 2nd hump always kicking off around election day

+ 3rd hump marking cycle top peaking ~13 months after election day

— And pretty well justified to ignore the slight aberrations in 2011 and 2020, due to the extreme abnormal events taking place in each of those.

And BTW, the 2020 post-covid money printing collapse seems it may have created the illusion that the peaks of these humps are decreasing in size much more than they actually are — since the 2020 money printing and then tightening reversed the usual ordering of the hump sizes.

So the hump sizes are gradually decreasing, but looking like not as quickly as the illusion created by the 2020 mess makes it seem.

Instead, the humps just slightly decreasing in their peak magnitude over time, not as drastically decreasing now as it may seem if you include the 2020 mess cycle.

= This cycle is going much higher, for far longer than most seem to be predicting.

(And IMO tons of today’s influencers are incentivized to tell people to “take profit”, i.e. cash out, way too early, because they get far more attention and affiliate commissions if you’re constantly cashing out and buying back in — perverse incentives causing them to repeatedly call cycle top way too early.)

Now, what could create a big enough demand in the next ~13 months to drive prices to the obscene new price levels that 2 more large MVRV humps would imply?

Many plausible theories,

= e.g. Some of us have long predicted that nations will eventually realize that they can’t stop the advance of crypto, at which point nations suddenly switch from fighting it to buying it, competing to amass the largest crypto national reserves, getting on the train or perpetually increasing crypto prices or else get left behind forever. Like nations racing to seize mineral-rich and oil-rich land before it’s no longer free for the taking.

That’s one strong theory as to what would be big enough to fulfill the immense demand needed to drive prices to these next levels, and looks like that’s clearly already begun to happen.

So there you have it.

This pattern is has clearly been happening extremely consistently since the dawn of crypto, and barring another covid-level macro disaster, solid bet that we’ll see the same happen yet again this cycle.

Once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

AFAIK, no one’s ever pointed out this set of patterns before.

We’re going so much higher over the next ~13 months

Pattern recognition ftw

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Not exactly endorsing this underpowered launch atm, since it doesn’t hit many of my favorite signals,

But saw one of the larger not-so-scammy, but not-super influential influencers shilling this launch tonight

Now keeping a close eye on how well underpowered launches like this do

— in part to see if any of these underpowered ones start achieving outsized success,

i.e. the “despite test”, which would be a sign that the market is seriously heating up, which would signal a time to shift strategy

Perhaps will just confirm that my usual signals still are needed, and flop. Not sure, haven’t really backtested signals in this regime yet

We’ll see we’ll see

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$SOL suddenly dumping below the trendline, to $205

$BTC still well within its trendlines for now, though dropping toward its trendline

MVRV is pretty high now — and remember that big ups and downs like this tend to reduce the MVRV, enable price to go higher

Short-term who knows

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Bucking the usual sell-on-binance trend, which becomes far more true later in the cycle,

$PNUT is booming to new highs even after hitting Binance, and even at times when $SOL is dropping

= yet another sign that this cycle is only just getting started

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State of $LUCE

Not bad, not bad

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Aha, another Elon-fueled $PNUT giga-pump

$PNUT now at $636M

NUTS OUT FOR PEANUT

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$PNUT again reminding us of the classic good VC advice,

That seems obvious but really is very non-obvious and very few people really do it when big money is on the line,

— of just letting the winners ride,

Or alternately, that usually price going up unusually fast is a sign it’s about to come back down,

But in the most extreme cases this flips, and the extreme fast rise in price in those cases is really a sign that it’s set to go even higher

Midcurve -vs- top of the curve.

Many of the usual midcurve rules tend to invert at the top of the curve

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$PNUT $3M to $900M

= 300x

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