Thiel’s biggest regret as an investor?

— Not letting the winners ride,

ignoring all intuitions that something is a great bet, because typical bets don’t usually go up more than ~3x

Easy habit to get into, when we’re surrounded by pumpfuns that always rug after 3x or 4x.

Plenty right in this chat saying should have taken profit and dumped all $PNUT back when it reached $10M

Perhaps an ok strategy for a bot, that’s very limited in what signals it can look at.

Bad strategy for humans that can assess more signals.

Bad strategy for the classic VC type investing most would be doing here.

VC returns nearly always characterized by 1 or 2 winners carrying the entire rest of the portfolio, rest essentially going to zero.

What happens if you cut off those 1 or 2 winners at ~3x then?

= Your entire portfolio gets killed.

Taking high risks while setting a very low cap for your returns makes your strategy a lose-lose.

= If you DO have good intutions, you occasionally really must let the winners ride, or else lose-lose

= if you DON’T have good intutions, then just go home, you’re screwed

That’s not to say you shouldn’t take SOME profit at some point, or exit a larger amount when there are bonafide exit events like hitting binance, but still.

Think about it.

Let the winners ride.

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squirrels everywhere after seeing what they did to peanut

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