Bitcoin seasonality:

The best indicator of 4th quarter performance is the nine months leading up to it (88% correlation). After a stellar August, Bitcoin is still down 10% YTD.

That means that if September is 0%, there would only be a 50/50 chance Bitcoin would have a positive 4th quarter.

Bitcoin would need another +25% in September to get that up to a 2/3 chance.

Except that Bitcoin is terrible in September. It's by far the worst month, going back to 2010.

And when August is positive for Bitcoin, September is negative 80% of the time. A 'normal' September implies less than 50% chance Bitcoin will have a positive 4Q in 2026, and about a 1-in-3 chance of finishing 2026 above $88k.

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This is what he blocked me for. Some of you might not know he was the origin of that memorable tweet about a systemic risk in crypto

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All of in the Blocked by Paul Graham Club should share what triggered it

Mine was this paragraph I wrote right after the 2024 assassination attempt on Trump, where I basically said that Trump overriding the most basic fear instinct to stand up and pump his fist in the air, mid high-adrenaline/cortisol chaos, with no idea if the threat was even neutralized yet, showed something pretty rare. You don’t have to like him or his politics to admit that was a fearless act of sheer will and unflappable courage.

Paul Graham disagreed and says no he’s not brave at all and I just quote tweet him saying “this shows just how far removed from actual danger the white collar laptop class is….”

and the next thing I know he blocks me

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I once saw one of the calmest men I know go into a complete screaming fit over the idea of intelligence differences.

Paul Graham blocked me simply for sharing stories from US missionaries about how Haitians struggle to alphabetize files on my own feed. Not even in a reply.

Blank slatism is a religion for these people. Graham has evidently believed this his whole life.

Imagine how hard it must be to reconcile that your beliefs were not just false, but threaten the very civilization you love.

Much easier to maintain epistemic closure.

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No matter what the verdict says, we all know she did it.

it’s unfortunate that virtual signal performative morons like this girl can sway other women into believing a child killer.

They are easily swayed when in a mob mentality.

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BREAKING - Germany says Russia ‘responsible’ for airport drone incident: minister

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ICE arrested roughly 50,000 people in August, matching July’s record high for the second Trump administration amid a nationwide enforcement surge

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Showdown of the century happening right now on tech twitter between Palmer Luckey and Paul Graham.

This makes us love Palmer so much more as he says what we’ve all been thinking: That although Paul is the founder of YC, he has turned into a massive pussy in recent years for leaving the US and retreating to his UK estate to sh&t post about America.

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We all know there are 3 reasons Lindsay Clancy hasn’t wheeled herself out of court a free woman

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BREAKING: US officials say the US Military has begun striking Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz.

US oil prices are surging toward $90/barrel on the news and now stand at their highest level since July 24th.

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