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Degens Deteriorating
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Bitcoin looking ready af for another dump

SOL already partitially priced-in another dump, as you can see i the SOL/BTC ratio, which can be seen as a market sentiment indicator,

Quick rough thoughts, that will try to further backtest in a bit,

BTC up & SOL/BTC up β€” short-term strong bullish

BTC flat & SOL/BTC up β€” short-term medium bullish

BTC up & SOL/BTC flat β€” short-term uncertain

BTC down & SOL/BTC flat β€” short-term uncertain

BTC down & SOL/BTC up β€” short-term bullish

BTC flat & SOL/BTC down β€” short-term bearish

BTC down & SOL/BTC down β€” short-term super-bearish (we are here?, though SOL/BTC has tried to raise back up, but not quite..)

Note that this is market SENTIMENT, not a final decision signal, and markets can sometimes be badly wrong, so shouldn’t be used as a final decision signal without consideration of other signals that could sometimes negate or flip the conclusion,

Still, amazing the percentage win-rate of this signal over many timescales,

…Sure feels like that pattern of the market being right or wrong, e.g. detect major regime shifts… gonna backtest a few ideas here rq

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Last month’s huge dump

β€” Notice how there’s ALWAYS a surge upward, sometimes a huge surge upward,

Right before a far bigger dump

Beware the fakeouts

This is the kind of thing separating many people from their money, while lowering the MVRV, which enables an even bigger next longer-term wave, but still

Beware the fakeouts

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(And again, on general strategy for these kinds of things β€” if I do buy, I do it immediately when I first find something with good signals, never waiting until it goes up to buy, which is much more likely to get you rekt)

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$MOODENG holding on for its life during this pullback

β€” One advantage of a pool created with thin liquidity,

whales can much more easily hold the price up.

FWIW, remembering $BOME, which was launched near the top of the march peak, having HUGE USDC pools right from the first day, IIRC composing ~50% of the total liquidity

Seems clear that $BOME knew a huge pullback was coming, and for sure the massive $USDT pools sure helped ensure that $BOME wouldn’t be wiped out during these pullbacks,

Unlike e.g. $boden, which was incredibly wiped out by these pullbacks, virtually all the way to zero

($boden also had its liquidity pool configured to be very thin, like $MOODENG, and like pumpfun coins)

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Very Heavy Airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force on the Dahieh Suburb of Southern Beirut in the last hour, with several High-Rise Buildings reported to have Collapsed.

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