THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS COULD BE HIDING INSIDE THE $2 TRILLION PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET.
And the stress is already showing.
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) just warned that the private credit market has grown into a $1.5-$2 trillion system deeply connected to banks, insurers, pension funds, and private equity firms.
But this market has never been tested during a real prolonged recession.
Now cracks are starting to appear.
Last month, Blue Owl Capital was forced to limit withdrawals from two major private credit funds after investors requested to pull out $5.4 billion in a single quarter.
Its $36 billion Credit Income fund received redemption requests equal to 21.9% of assets.
Its technology lending fund saw withdrawal requests equal to 40.7% of assets.
Blue Owl responded by capping withdrawals at just 5% per quarter.
And Blue Owl is not alone.
According to multiple reports, KKR, Apollo, BlackRock, and other large private credit managers have also started restricting investor redemptions as stress spreads across the industry.
This is exactly the type of liquidity mismatch regulators are warning about.
Many private credit funds promise periodic withdrawals to investors while holding highly illiquid loans underneath.
That structure works during bull markets.
It becomes dangerous when large numbers of investors suddenly want their money back at the same time.
The FSB specifically warned that:
• leverage is increasing
• defaults are rising
• valuations remain opaque
• borrower quality is deteriorating
• payment-in-kind structures are becoming more common
Payment-in-kind financing is especially concerning.
Many borrowers are no longer paying interest in cash.
Instead, they borrow MORE money just to cover existing interest payments.
That is usually a major sign that credit quality is weakening.
The FSB also warned that private credit is heavily concentrated in sectors like:
• technology
• healthcare
• business services
Meaning stress in one sector can quickly spread across the system.
And unlike public markets, there is very little transparency.
Many private credit loans:
• do not trade publicly
• are not marked to market daily
• rely on internal valuations
• use private ratings from lesser-known firms
Regulators admitted they still do not fully understand where many of the risks are sitting because global reporting standards remain inconsistent.
The banking system is also becoming increasingly exposed.
The FSB estimates banks already have between $220 billion and $500 billion of direct and indirect exposure to private credit through financing lines, revolving facilities, and synthetic risk structures.
This matters because private credit exploded during one of the easiest money environments in modern history.
Cheap borrowing costs allowed weak companies to survive for years.
Now rates remain elevated, refinancing conditions are tightening, and investors are starting to demand liquidity at the exact moment credit conditions are worsening.
The entire system is now facing its first real stress test.
And regulators are openly warning they may not fully see the risks until the pressure spreads through the financial system.
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And the stress is already showing.
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) just warned that the private credit market has grown into a $1.5-$2 trillion system deeply connected to banks, insurers, pension funds, and private equity firms.
But this market has never been tested during a real prolonged recession.
Now cracks are starting to appear.
Last month, Blue Owl Capital was forced to limit withdrawals from two major private credit funds after investors requested to pull out $5.4 billion in a single quarter.
Its $36 billion Credit Income fund received redemption requests equal to 21.9% of assets.
Its technology lending fund saw withdrawal requests equal to 40.7% of assets.
Blue Owl responded by capping withdrawals at just 5% per quarter.
And Blue Owl is not alone.
According to multiple reports, KKR, Apollo, BlackRock, and other large private credit managers have also started restricting investor redemptions as stress spreads across the industry.
This is exactly the type of liquidity mismatch regulators are warning about.
Many private credit funds promise periodic withdrawals to investors while holding highly illiquid loans underneath.
That structure works during bull markets.
It becomes dangerous when large numbers of investors suddenly want their money back at the same time.
The FSB specifically warned that:
• leverage is increasing
• defaults are rising
• valuations remain opaque
• borrower quality is deteriorating
• payment-in-kind structures are becoming more common
Payment-in-kind financing is especially concerning.
Many borrowers are no longer paying interest in cash.
Instead, they borrow MORE money just to cover existing interest payments.
That is usually a major sign that credit quality is weakening.
The FSB also warned that private credit is heavily concentrated in sectors like:
• technology
• healthcare
• business services
Meaning stress in one sector can quickly spread across the system.
And unlike public markets, there is very little transparency.
Many private credit loans:
• do not trade publicly
• are not marked to market daily
• rely on internal valuations
• use private ratings from lesser-known firms
Regulators admitted they still do not fully understand where many of the risks are sitting because global reporting standards remain inconsistent.
The banking system is also becoming increasingly exposed.
The FSB estimates banks already have between $220 billion and $500 billion of direct and indirect exposure to private credit through financing lines, revolving facilities, and synthetic risk structures.
This matters because private credit exploded during one of the easiest money environments in modern history.
Cheap borrowing costs allowed weak companies to survive for years.
Now rates remain elevated, refinancing conditions are tightening, and investors are starting to demand liquidity at the exact moment credit conditions are worsening.
The entire system is now facing its first real stress test.
And regulators are openly warning they may not fully see the risks until the pressure spreads through the financial system.
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KRAKEN PARENT MOVES TO BECOME A FEDERAL CRYPTO BANK
Payward has applied for an OCC charter, a step that would add a federally regulated trust company to Kraken’s existing Wyoming bank charter and Fed master account.
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Payward has applied for an OCC charter, a step that would add a federally regulated trust company to Kraken’s existing Wyoming bank charter and Fed master account.
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Factory construction jobs show rapid expansion of industrial development under Trump, reporting over 12k construction jobs in April alone, raising expectations further
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Spencer Pratt says he would work to end the fraudulent spending of LA’s tax dollars and use it to rebuild and improve LA’s infrastructure
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Another massive gamma squeeze day as "spot up, vol up": VIX soars on Call buying as everyone rushes into the AI mania.
Not even during the "Summer of 2020 Softbank squeeze" did we see such moves
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Not even during the "Summer of 2020 Softbank squeeze" did we see such moves
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Not only did she want more than half of what he has now, she wants to attach herself like a leech. She wants to enslave him to her forever
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record, now up +17.2% since the March 30th bottom.
That's +$10 TRILLION in market cap in 29 trading days.
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That's +$10 TRILLION in market cap in 29 trading days.
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Joe Lonsdale calls out Tucker Carlson for saying to “Professor” Jiang, whom Lonsdale called a “spy, that the US should “share” power with the Chinese
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BREAKING: The judge in the Charlie Kirk murder trial has officially ruled that cameras will be allowed in the courtroom for the full duration of the trial, which is set to begin in July. The decision comes after Tyler Robinson’s attorneys fought aggressively to block cameras from being permitted inside the courtroom
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Demand for global equities is skyrocketing:
Global equity funds have attracted +$210 billion in inflows over the last 6 months, the best 6-month stretch in history.
This represents ~10% of the total assets under management of these funds.
Inflows have QUADRUPLED over the last year and surpassed the meme stock frenzy peak of 2021 by +100%.
Emerging Markets ETFs alone have attracted +$35 billion in inflows year-to-date, on track for its strongest annual intake on record.
Meanwhile, the South Korean ETF, $EWY, has been one of the most actively traded ETFs, accounting for 10-14% of total volume across all 688 global equity ETFs over the last 3 months.
This percentage has more than TRIPLED since the beginning of the year.
Investor appetite for global equities has never been stronger.
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Global equity funds have attracted +$210 billion in inflows over the last 6 months, the best 6-month stretch in history.
This represents ~10% of the total assets under management of these funds.
Inflows have QUADRUPLED over the last year and surpassed the meme stock frenzy peak of 2021 by +100%.
Emerging Markets ETFs alone have attracted +$35 billion in inflows year-to-date, on track for its strongest annual intake on record.
Meanwhile, the South Korean ETF, $EWY, has been one of the most actively traded ETFs, accounting for 10-14% of total volume across all 688 global equity ETFs over the last 3 months.
This percentage has more than TRIPLED since the beginning of the year.
Investor appetite for global equities has never been stronger.
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You should interrogate all software you use daily with codex. there is a lot of low hanging fruit. for example, i was wondering why solidity compilers take such a long time to download. for years i thought they had a slow server. turned out the culprit was a progress bar renderer that has used tiny chunk increments and reassembling bytes instead of bytearray or a file output. fixing all this sped it up 42x
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PRESIDENT TRUMP just put out a post congratulating 115 THOUSAND AMERICANS who found a job in April, despite what the “experts” said
“Despite the best efforts of Jerome ‘Too Late and Won't Leave’ Powell, and the America Hating Democrat Party, more Americans are working today than ever before.”
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“Despite the best efforts of Jerome ‘Too Late and Won't Leave’ Powell, and the America Hating Democrat Party, more Americans are working today than ever before.”
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Every asset is making new highs, except for Crypto.
Live Cattle are up +525% since 2022 and just hit an ATH.
We are getting outperformed by Cows.
You can’t make it up
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Live Cattle are up +525% since 2022 and just hit an ATH.
We are getting outperformed by Cows.
You can’t make it up
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Congresswoman Luna posts ‘OPHANIM’ right after Pentagon declassifies eerie 8-POINTED star UFO
Ophanim described as multi-eyed ANGELS in Dead Sea Scrolls
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Ophanim described as multi-eyed ANGELS in Dead Sea Scrolls
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What is that?...
CENTCOM released video from a U.S. military platform in 2024, showing what the official mission report describes as a "misshapen and uneven ball of white light" with a strange "light/glare halo effect" at the top of the feed.
The Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) couldn't explain what it is.
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CENTCOM released video from a U.S. military platform in 2024, showing what the official mission report describes as a "misshapen and uneven ball of white light" with a strange "light/glare halo effect" at the top of the feed.
The Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) couldn't explain what it is.
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New one from today's big UFO drop: 9 seconds of raw IR footage from a U.S. military plane in the Middle East, 2020.
Just a weird contrast streaking linear across the screen no description, no explanation.
AARO still calls it unresolved.
They’re dumping these while jets buzz Baghdad and drones hit Kurds.
Perfect timing for the "look over here" treatment? Thoughts?
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Just a weird contrast streaking linear across the screen no description, no explanation.
AARO still calls it unresolved.
They’re dumping these while jets buzz Baghdad and drones hit Kurds.
Perfect timing for the "look over here" treatment? Thoughts?
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