The number of jobs needed to keep US unemployment stable has collapsed:
Minimum monthly job gains needed to hold unemployment steady are down to an average -3,000 per month.
The breakeven rate has collapsed from ~250,000 per month in mid-2023, driven by a decline in net immigration.
Net unauthorized immigration turned negative in February 2025, then averaged -55,000 per month in the second half of 2025, as deportations and voluntary exits far exceeded new arrivals.
As a result, total net unauthorized immigration for 2025 hit -548,000.
Put simply, with fewer workers entering the labor force, the economy now needs far fewer jobs to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
The US job market is facing a massive structural shift.
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Minimum monthly job gains needed to hold unemployment steady are down to an average -3,000 per month.
The breakeven rate has collapsed from ~250,000 per month in mid-2023, driven by a decline in net immigration.
Net unauthorized immigration turned negative in February 2025, then averaged -55,000 per month in the second half of 2025, as deportations and voluntary exits far exceeded new arrivals.
As a result, total net unauthorized immigration for 2025 hit -548,000.
Put simply, with fewer workers entering the labor force, the economy now needs far fewer jobs to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
The US job market is facing a massive structural shift.
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DoomPosting
About Nikita saying Dom Lucre is just an “aggregator” who “adds no value” Weird thing to say Do they have the numbers to prove/disprove this? Interestingly, we do The AI poster bot tracks all reactions to posts, and which feed they were sourced from —…
FYI ran the numbers here and AI poster bot’s very top most used feed here is the source of <5% of the posts
99% of the feeds contribute <1% of the posts here
Extreme, extreme long tail
And remember the poster bot only shares a tiny fraction of the best posts from any of those feeds
Any decent poster has to dig DEEP into a long tail of feeds to do even a mediocre job at finding gems
Long, long tail
And if you have a particular task in mind, e.g. seeing what are the upcoming memes for the next big memecoin — the long tail is even MUCH longer
The old meme about the best memes & posts originating from super-obscure accounts that just get a few likes — is objectively true
Basically pretty sure the DEI retards over at twitter don’t realize the math of memes and how they spread
To the extent that there are great posters — it’s because they’re digging deep into the long tail to find what to steal & improve
Picasso was right, in that sense — great artists steal
“Nerd heat” theory was also right, in the same sense — about being in the know for the next big thing, being well read deep in those long-tail trenches, to see the very diffuse set of creators that the next big things originate from not literally inventing everything yourself from scratch
VERY VERY COMMON MISCONCEPTION — that you can just find and follow 1 or 2 twitter feeds and then be on top of the trends
That’s just not the reality
Need to watch 1000+ feeds just to not miss 50% of the trends
Reality of emerging next big things is very diffuse, especially when it’s your job to get there well before everyone else
The numbers don’t lie
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99% of the feeds contribute <1% of the posts here
Extreme, extreme long tail
And remember the poster bot only shares a tiny fraction of the best posts from any of those feeds
Any decent poster has to dig DEEP into a long tail of feeds to do even a mediocre job at finding gems
Long, long tail
And if you have a particular task in mind, e.g. seeing what are the upcoming memes for the next big memecoin — the long tail is even MUCH longer
The old meme about the best memes & posts originating from super-obscure accounts that just get a few likes — is objectively true
Basically pretty sure the DEI retards over at twitter don’t realize the math of memes and how they spread
To the extent that there are great posters — it’s because they’re digging deep into the long tail to find what to steal & improve
Picasso was right, in that sense — great artists steal
“Nerd heat” theory was also right, in the same sense — about being in the know for the next big thing, being well read deep in those long-tail trenches, to see the very diffuse set of creators that the next big things originate from not literally inventing everything yourself from scratch
VERY VERY COMMON MISCONCEPTION — that you can just find and follow 1 or 2 twitter feeds and then be on top of the trends
That’s just not the reality
Need to watch 1000+ feeds just to not miss 50% of the trends
Reality of emerging next big things is very diffuse, especially when it’s your job to get there well before everyone else
The numbers don’t lie
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DoomPosting
FYI ran the numbers here and AI poster bot’s very top most used feed here is the source of <5% of the posts 99% of the feeds contribute <1% of the posts here Extreme, extreme long tail And remember the poster bot only shares a tiny fraction of the best…
Clearly when Nikita says that “you’ve got to add your own commentary” on posts,
— He’s making an analogy to the “transformative” fair use part of copyright law, where it’s considered sufficiently value-add if you sufficiently transform an existing copyrighted work
But dipsh&t Nikita is forgetting the other huge, and far more applicable analogy to copyright law here
— Compilations
= selected, coordinated, or arranged creatively — EVEN IF it’s purely compiling existing copyrighted work
= curations themselves, obviously can be hugely value-add, and this has been recognized e.g. in US copyright law for many years
Now, notice also the “Copyright does not exist when content is compiled without creativity, such as in the production of a telephone directory” = i.e. aggregators
So, Nikita is trying to say that all the top curators on Twitter are simply non-creative aggregators that aren’t smartly filtering at all
…But the evidence is so overwhelming that that’s total BS, non-curated feeds would look MUCH DIFFERENT than you see today… 1000x worse
Basically curation of content 100% owned by others can itself be hugely value add, and this has been a well-recognized reality even in US law, since the dawn of time
AFAIK no one else pointed this out yet
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— He’s making an analogy to the “transformative” fair use part of copyright law, where it’s considered sufficiently value-add if you sufficiently transform an existing copyrighted work
But dipsh&t Nikita is forgetting the other huge, and far more applicable analogy to copyright law here
— Compilations
= selected, coordinated, or arranged creatively — EVEN IF it’s purely compiling existing copyrighted work
= curations themselves, obviously can be hugely value-add, and this has been recognized e.g. in US copyright law for many years
Now, notice also the “Copyright does not exist when content is compiled without creativity, such as in the production of a telephone directory” = i.e. aggregators
So, Nikita is trying to say that all the top curators on Twitter are simply non-creative aggregators that aren’t smartly filtering at all
…But the evidence is so overwhelming that that’s total BS, non-curated feeds would look MUCH DIFFERENT than you see today… 1000x worse
Basically curation of content 100% owned by others can itself be hugely value add, and this has been a well-recognized reality even in US law, since the dawn of time
AFAIK no one else pointed this out yet
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Update from the Gaza flotilla: activists are furious that a senior organising member of the Steering Committee is having sex with people on the boats
“To have sex on the boat - while heading to a nation undergoing genocide - is a clear violation of ethics and power”
Lmfao
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“To have sex on the boat - while heading to a nation undergoing genocide - is a clear violation of ethics and power”
Lmfao
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Two years ago, Alexander "Xander" Kazanowski opened a small antique shop in Chicago.
Trans activists doxxed him and protested his business over his "wrongthink" social media posts. The store eventually closed.
Just weeks ago, while expecting his second child and raising a young daughter, he was bludgeoned to death outside a bar. Police are still searching for four suspects.
Another young father gone in a Democrat-run city where crime festers and certain "opinions" get you targeted.
His kids will grow up without him.
Chicago deserves better. When does accountability start?
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Trans activists doxxed him and protested his business over his "wrongthink" social media posts. The store eventually closed.
Just weeks ago, while expecting his second child and raising a young daughter, he was bludgeoned to death outside a bar. Police are still searching for four suspects.
Another young father gone in a Democrat-run city where crime festers and certain "opinions" get you targeted.
His kids will grow up without him.
Chicago deserves better. When does accountability start?
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This is a great study
- Only one marginally-significant subgroup interaction (p = 0.04) out of 11 (= none after multiplicity correction)
- Results not driven by a single part of the composite (no significant interactions or directional inconsistency)
- Significant 3P-MACE
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- Only one marginally-significant subgroup interaction (p = 0.04) out of 11 (= none after multiplicity correction)
- Results not driven by a single part of the composite (no significant interactions or directional inconsistency)
- Significant 3P-MACE
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ISLAMIFICATION: HEB is rolling out Halal food in supermarkets across the State of Texas due to the massive influx of Islamic migrants and the normalization of Sharia in Texas. Crescent Foods is the dominant national halal meat brand founded by Ahmad Adam.
IsabellaMDeLuca
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IsabellaMDeLuca
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BREAKING:
Polkadot $DOT has crashed -5% in just 5 minutes, wiping out $20 million in market cap.
$728k in DOT longs were quickly liquidated.
This follows reports that Polkadot has been exploited. The attacker allegedly minted over 1 billion $DOT and dumped it all in a single transaction for 108.2 ETH ($237,000).
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Polkadot $DOT has crashed -5% in just 5 minutes, wiping out $20 million in market cap.
$728k in DOT longs were quickly liquidated.
This follows reports that Polkadot has been exploited. The attacker allegedly minted over 1 billion $DOT and dumped it all in a single transaction for 108.2 ETH ($237,000).
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Trump on Pope Leo: "I don’t think he’s doing a very good job. He likes crime I guess... We don’t like a pope who says it’s ok to have a nuclear weapon. We don’t want a pope that says crime is ok. I am not a fan of Pope Leo."
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The au pair when she arrives from France and finds out I actually don’t have a wife and kids
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Girl from Kharkiv lifted an apple with her teeth while performing a backbend from a platform at an impressive height
set Ukraine's National Record
unbelievably flexible!
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set Ukraine's National Record
unbelievably flexible!
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