Well that’s part, that most readily talk about,
but then there’s also another part, which almost no one talks about
— That as soon as the prediction market predictions are actually used for anything of value, whether intentionally or not,
then if value of having control over those predictions outstrips the cost of moving the markets
…it becomes net profitable to manipulate the markets.
i.e. externalities.
E.g. Good reason to believe that the left is pumping both the polls and the prediction markets for the election,
even if it appears to be a money losing proposition when you look at the markets alone,
— because of the value of these externalities.
Specifically that tons of NPCs out there just want to do whatever they think everyone else is doing, and so tricking them to believe that everyone else is about to do something actually makes them do it — and having that control can have big value…
These problems are often solvable, but in many cases doing so is not exactly trivial at all.
But, as Hayek points out, you can never get people to adopt advances in such tech willingly.
In all likelihood, at some point, someone will finish building this and just force it upon everyone.
but then there’s also another part, which almost no one talks about
— That as soon as the prediction market predictions are actually used for anything of value, whether intentionally or not,
then if value of having control over those predictions outstrips the cost of moving the markets
…it becomes net profitable to manipulate the markets.
i.e. externalities.
E.g. Good reason to believe that the left is pumping both the polls and the prediction markets for the election,
even if it appears to be a money losing proposition when you look at the markets alone,
— because of the value of these externalities.
Specifically that tons of NPCs out there just want to do whatever they think everyone else is doing, and so tricking them to believe that everyone else is about to do something actually makes them do it — and having that control can have big value…
These problems are often solvable, but in many cases doing so is not exactly trivial at all.
But, as Hayek points out, you can never get people to adopt advances in such tech willingly.
In all likelihood, at some point, someone will finish building this and just force it upon everyone.
🔥5✍3👀1
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“Taxi ride in Japan."
“i feel his pain.”
“i feel his pain.”
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Most British pair of community notes ever written
“But it’s good because them’s the rules mate”
Most rule-following pussies culture in the world
What’s good vs what the rules are
British mind cannot comprehend
“But it’s good because them’s the rules mate”
Most rule-following pussies culture in the world
What’s good vs what the rules are
British mind cannot comprehend
😡3👀1