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JUST IN - Trump shares a rendering of the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library, to be constructed in Miami
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Bearish sentiment is through the roof:
Median short interest in Russell 3000 stocks is up to 4.3%, the highest in 15 years.
This is now 1.0 percentage point above the 2022 bear market levels.
At the same time, short Interest in the energy sector ETF, $XLE, is up to the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Short interest in the sector has DOUBLED over the last few weeks, posting its most rapid jump this century.
All while put options volume in the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, surged to 8.6 million contracts, the highest since "Liberation Day" in April 2025.
Conditions are ripe for a short squeeze.
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Median short interest in Russell 3000 stocks is up to 4.3%, the highest in 15 years.
This is now 1.0 percentage point above the 2022 bear market levels.
At the same time, short Interest in the energy sector ETF, $XLE, is up to the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Short interest in the sector has DOUBLED over the last few weeks, posting its most rapid jump this century.
All while put options volume in the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, surged to 8.6 million contracts, the highest since "Liberation Day" in April 2025.
Conditions are ripe for a short squeeze.
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Compute Wars: OpenAI vs Anthopic.
Why was Opus 4.5 such a breakthrough? Anthropic got lots more compute from AWS Madison and New Carlisle sites likely more than doubling their capacity.
This got Anthropic got close to OpenAI's total capacity, and probably much higher effective capacity available for new model runs.
Remember that it takes 6+ months between getting capacity and releasing the model, so the extra OpenAI capacity might be aligning well with the 'spud' model rather than GPT-5.4.
Unless something dramatic happens, OpenAI will pull away in terms of compute available in H2 2026, but 2027 will be close. Future years are less certain but so far OpenAI has much higher planned capacity, though can't imagine Anthropic isn't pushing as hard as they can to get lots more compute.
Always watch the compute, other things matter, but any new capability breakthrough probably came from throwing more compute at it.
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Why was Opus 4.5 such a breakthrough? Anthropic got lots more compute from AWS Madison and New Carlisle sites likely more than doubling their capacity.
This got Anthropic got close to OpenAI's total capacity, and probably much higher effective capacity available for new model runs.
Remember that it takes 6+ months between getting capacity and releasing the model, so the extra OpenAI capacity might be aligning well with the 'spud' model rather than GPT-5.4.
Unless something dramatic happens, OpenAI will pull away in terms of compute available in H2 2026, but 2027 will be close. Future years are less certain but so far OpenAI has much higher planned capacity, though can't imagine Anthropic isn't pushing as hard as they can to get lots more compute.
Always watch the compute, other things matter, but any new capability breakthrough probably came from throwing more compute at it.
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Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed -WSJ
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BREAKING:
Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End US-Iran War Without Reopening Hormuz, per WSJ
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Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End US-Iran War Without Reopening Hormuz, per WSJ
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Bitcoin reclaims $67,000 and ETH is back above $2,000 after Trump signals at ending the US-Iran War
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