US consumer sentiment is deteriorating as inflation expectations surge:
The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.3 points in March, to 53.3, its lowest since December 2025.
The index is now below the 2008 Financial Crisis low and almost in-line with the 1980s recession bottom.
This comes as 1-year inflation expectations jumped +0.4 percentage points, to 3.8%, the largest monthly increase since April 2025.
~66% of consumer interviews were conducted after the start of the Iran War on February 28th, with those respondents reporting significantly worse sentiment and higher inflation expectations than those surveyed before that date.
The decline was broad-based across all age groups, with middle and higher-income consumers showing particularly large drops as surging gasoline prices and volatile financial markets weighed on confidence.
Consumer sentiment among Americans is at crisis levels.
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The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.3 points in March, to 53.3, its lowest since December 2025.
The index is now below the 2008 Financial Crisis low and almost in-line with the 1980s recession bottom.
This comes as 1-year inflation expectations jumped +0.4 percentage points, to 3.8%, the largest monthly increase since April 2025.
~66% of consumer interviews were conducted after the start of the Iran War on February 28th, with those respondents reporting significantly worse sentiment and higher inflation expectations than those surveyed before that date.
The decline was broad-based across all age groups, with middle and higher-income consumers showing particularly large drops as surging gasoline prices and volatile financial markets weighed on confidence.
Consumer sentiment among Americans is at crisis levels.
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Costco has opened their first store in New Delhi!
Just kidding, this was filmed at a Costco in Texas.
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Just kidding, this was filmed at a Costco in Texas.
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NEW: Wyoming teen finds a megalodon shark tooth off the coast of Florida.
16-year-old Aiden Andrews was on a fossil-hunting tour off Manasota Key when he made the discovery.
Scientists say the megalodon weighed up to 50 tons, was up to 60 feet long, and had teeth the size of a human hand.
The tooth found by Andrews was over 6 inches.
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16-year-old Aiden Andrews was on a fossil-hunting tour off Manasota Key when he made the discovery.
Scientists say the megalodon weighed up to 50 tons, was up to 60 feet long, and had teeth the size of a human hand.
The tooth found by Andrews was over 6 inches.
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“Um, akshually, that crab mounting an heroic defence of its mate against an enormous foe whose nature and intentions are beyond its comprehension—the literal equivalent of battling a god—is actually a r*pist.”
Incredible.
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Incredible.
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WARNING: 2008 RECESSION SIGNS ARE EMERGING AGAIN
This week, UBS told investors they cannot have their money back for 3 years.
And this isn't any random entity.
UBS is the world's largest private wealth manager, holding over $7 trillion in AUM.
And this is the same thing Bear Stearns did in June 2007.
Fourteen months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed and Global Financial Crisis happened.
On March 25, 2026, UBS suspended all withdrawals from its €407 million Euroinvest real estate fund.
The reason given was insufficient liquidity.
And this is not a UBS problem. It is a sector-wide problem.
In Germany alone, four real estate funds have now suspended withdrawals in the last four months.
Greenman Open halted redemptions in December 2025.
Wertgrund WohnSelect D followed in January 2026.
Fokus Wohnen Deutschland in February 2026.
UBS in March 2026.
The same thing is happening in US private credit.
Investors tried to pull $13 billion from private credit funds in Q1 2026 alone.
Ares, Apollo, BlackRock, Cliffwater, and Morgan Stanley all capped withdrawals.
More than $4.6 billion is currently trapped behind withdrawal limits.
The underlying problem is commercial real estate, specifically office buildings.
The numbers are serious:
US office vacancy rate is projected to hit 24% in 2026, the highest ever recorded.
Office CMBS delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 12.34% in January 2026. The overall CMBS delinquency rate is at 7.47% and rising. $5.4 billion in new delinquencies was recorded in a single month. CBD office values have fallen 52% from their peak.
1,607 US banks currently hold commercial real estate exposure above 300% of their total equity. Regional banks have 44% of all their loans sitting in commercial real estate.
The mechanism keeping this from blowing up right now is called "extend and pretend." Banks and borrowers keep extending loan maturities instead of forcing sales at current prices.
CRE loan modifications jumped from $21 billion in March 2024 to $39 billion by March 2025. The Willis Tower in Chicago has had its $1.33 billion loan extended all the way to 2028.
Nobody wants to be the first one to sell and reveal what these buildings are actually worth.
This is almost exactly what happened in 2007.
Bear Stearns suspended two hedge funds in June 2007.
The reason was the same: assets that could not be sold at book value. BNP Paribas followed in August 2007, freezing three funds worth €1.6 billion, citing "complete evaporation of liquidity."
Northern Rock had a bank run in September 2007. Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. From the first fund suspension to full crisis was approximately 15 months.
That doesn't mean the exact same thing will happen again, but the odds of a global recession are definitely going up in 2026.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
This week, UBS told investors they cannot have their money back for 3 years.
And this isn't any random entity.
UBS is the world's largest private wealth manager, holding over $7 trillion in AUM.
And this is the same thing Bear Stearns did in June 2007.
Fourteen months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed and Global Financial Crisis happened.
On March 25, 2026, UBS suspended all withdrawals from its €407 million Euroinvest real estate fund.
The reason given was insufficient liquidity.
And this is not a UBS problem. It is a sector-wide problem.
In Germany alone, four real estate funds have now suspended withdrawals in the last four months.
Greenman Open halted redemptions in December 2025.
Wertgrund WohnSelect D followed in January 2026.
Fokus Wohnen Deutschland in February 2026.
UBS in March 2026.
The same thing is happening in US private credit.
Investors tried to pull $13 billion from private credit funds in Q1 2026 alone.
Ares, Apollo, BlackRock, Cliffwater, and Morgan Stanley all capped withdrawals.
More than $4.6 billion is currently trapped behind withdrawal limits.
The underlying problem is commercial real estate, specifically office buildings.
The numbers are serious:
US office vacancy rate is projected to hit 24% in 2026, the highest ever recorded.
Office CMBS delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 12.34% in January 2026. The overall CMBS delinquency rate is at 7.47% and rising. $5.4 billion in new delinquencies was recorded in a single month. CBD office values have fallen 52% from their peak.
1,607 US banks currently hold commercial real estate exposure above 300% of their total equity. Regional banks have 44% of all their loans sitting in commercial real estate.
The mechanism keeping this from blowing up right now is called "extend and pretend." Banks and borrowers keep extending loan maturities instead of forcing sales at current prices.
CRE loan modifications jumped from $21 billion in March 2024 to $39 billion by March 2025. The Willis Tower in Chicago has had its $1.33 billion loan extended all the way to 2028.
Nobody wants to be the first one to sell and reveal what these buildings are actually worth.
This is almost exactly what happened in 2007.
Bear Stearns suspended two hedge funds in June 2007.
The reason was the same: assets that could not be sold at book value. BNP Paribas followed in August 2007, freezing three funds worth €1.6 billion, citing "complete evaporation of liquidity."
Northern Rock had a bank run in September 2007. Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. From the first fund suspension to full crisis was approximately 15 months.
That doesn't mean the exact same thing will happen again, but the odds of a global recession are definitely going up in 2026.
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This is excellent
>GitLab founder diagnosed with rare cancer (osteosarcoma)
>standard care works but cancer comes back later
>medical team says there's not much else to do
>"It became my own job to keep myself alive. Nobody else was going to do it for me at this point"
>starts researching, assembles his own medical team, uses AI for deep research
>“I’ll talk to anyone, I’ll go anywhere, and I can be there anytime" to collect information
>does as many diagnostic tests as he can find as often as he can (maximal diagnostics)
>develops his own therapeutic ladder with repurposed drugs, personalized medicine, etc
>Sid’s cancer currently in remission
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>GitLab founder diagnosed with rare cancer (osteosarcoma)
>standard care works but cancer comes back later
>medical team says there's not much else to do
>"It became my own job to keep myself alive. Nobody else was going to do it for me at this point"
>starts researching, assembles his own medical team, uses AI for deep research
>“I’ll talk to anyone, I’ll go anywhere, and I can be there anytime" to collect information
>does as many diagnostic tests as he can find as often as he can (maximal diagnostics)
>develops his own therapeutic ladder with repurposed drugs, personalized medicine, etc
>Sid’s cancer currently in remission
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Bitcoin Treasury Company "Nakamoto" is down -99.34% from its peak, erasing over $23.3 billion from its market cap.
If you invested $100,000 in $NAKA last year, today it would be worth $600.
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If you invested $100,000 in $NAKA last year, today it would be worth $600.
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The UEFA fined the Serbian club "Red Star" €95,500 because fans unfurled an image of the Orthodox saint St. Simeon the Wonderworker and a banner saying "Let our faith lead you to victory"
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Be careful when you trust AI for personal advice. LLMs will glaze you +50% more than a human would.
In this study, they found LLMs like GPT 4o/5 often endorsed the users view on "Am I the asshole" Reddit threads.
Worse still, users found sycophancy to be more trustworthy.
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In this study, they found LLMs like GPT 4o/5 often endorsed the users view on "Am I the asshole" Reddit threads.
Worse still, users found sycophancy to be more trustworthy.
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Why did govt funded food stamps become such a crazy program in the USA?
12% of the country is receiving government subsidized food stamps now and it costs us $102 billion per year.
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12% of the country is receiving government subsidized food stamps now and it costs us $102 billion per year.
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