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Degens Deteriorating
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Exactly 12 hours after our "warning," Trump has INTERVENED:

Yesterday, at 7:35 PM ET, we posted that "oil prices are no longer the biggest threat to markets."

We said it has become increasingly clear that "bond markets will dictate just how long Trump can continue increase pressure in the Iran War."

At 4:30 AM ET today, we noted that bond market is now more "broken" than the energy market situation.

Then, as the 10Y Note Yield hit 4.45% last night, Trump likely had the same conversation as he did on April 9th, 2025, when he paused tariffs for 90-days.

3 hours later, Trump postponed all strikes on Iranian power plants for 5 days and said the US and Iran have had "productive" talks to end the war. And, the intervention becomes even more clear.

30 minutes later, Iran denied Trump's claims and said Trump is trying to "buy time" by calming markets.

The 10Y Yield briefly collapsed before rebounding back to 4.38% now, a clear attempt by the US to contain the brewing bond market crisis.

The US simply cannot afford the 10Y Yield at 4.50%+.

Keep watching the bond market.

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Fun fact.

Before modern refrigeration, rural communities in Russia and Finland used an unusual technique to keep milk from spoiling: they dropped live brown frogs (Rana temporaria) into their milk containers.

Scientists later discovered that the skin of these frogs secretes antimicrobial peptides-natural antibiotics-that kill bacteria and slow spoilage, helping the milk stay safe to drink for longer.

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Russian oil export facilities at the port of Primorsk are ablaze this morning after a highly successful Ukrainian drone raid overnight. Via RFERL

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OH MY GOSH!!!

The Atlanta TSA line is so long, that it is not just wrapped around baggage claim...

...BUT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE OUTSIDE OF THE FREAKING BUILDING!!!!

I am hearing that people waited in line for SIX HOURS last night and still missed their flights.

INSANE!!!!!

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β€œok but you really did have talks with iran, right?”

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On today, World Bear Day, spare a thought and prayer for all the beautiful bears in captivity around the world. Pray that they might one day remember their strength and turn on their captors, rending them limb from limb in a wild frenzy

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BREAKING:

Iran's state TV IRIB: The position on the Strait of Hormuz hasn't changed and won't change, no matter what

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BREAKING: Shooting down Iran’s cheap drones is costing Gulf nations millions.

$20K drones are being intercepted by fighter jets burning $25K per hour and missiles worth up to $1M each, creating a massive cost imbalance. Experts warn this strategy is unsustainable as drone waves continue.

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Trump:

"We have had very, very strong talks. We'll see where they lead.

We have points, major points of agreement, I would say almost all points of agreement.

Perhaps that hasn't been conveyed."

Witkoff and Kushner had them the talks."

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The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) arrived Monday morning at NATO’s Crete Naval Base in Souda Bay, Greece, following several weeks in the Eastern Mediterranean and Northern Red Sea supporting Operation Epic Fury, during which the ship suffered a significant ventilation fire that resulted in damage to multiple berthings, forcing several hundred sailors to sleep on mattresses placed throughout the Ford

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BREAKING:

Trump says US will 'just keep bombing' if Iran talks fail.

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