POWER CURVE + TIME DEVATION IS ALL YOU NEED
Business cycle models, M2 models, liquidity models, gold models, exponential decay models, quantile models.. they all go smoked in October. Analysts are overfitting. They project their models forward 10 years but have to change them every 6 months. "Most accurate," "best," blah blah blah. A model that needs a major revision twice a year is useless.
This baby here didn't need an update. It's robust. It doesn't over-fit. Simple. Elegant. 8 lines of code.
Import the price data, fit to a power function, measure time deviation, end.
Time deviation is physical. Is 600% over trend a lot? I don't know. Maybe? What was it last cycle? "Years ahead" tells you how long it could be before you see another ATH. Is 5 years ahead of the curve a lot? Yes. You could get a bachelors degree, you could meet a girl and get married, your 13-year-old will graduate high school in 5 years. IF YOU TRUST THE CURVE, then time deviation is all you need. Even if you don't know it, you measure risk against your lifespan. This natural tendency stabilizes the metric. "Years ahead" will remain a fairly constant distribution until the power trendline breaks.
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Business cycle models, M2 models, liquidity models, gold models, exponential decay models, quantile models.. they all go smoked in October. Analysts are overfitting. They project their models forward 10 years but have to change them every 6 months. "Most accurate," "best," blah blah blah. A model that needs a major revision twice a year is useless.
This baby here didn't need an update. It's robust. It doesn't over-fit. Simple. Elegant. 8 lines of code.
Import the price data, fit to a power function, measure time deviation, end.
Time deviation is physical. Is 600% over trend a lot? I don't know. Maybe? What was it last cycle? "Years ahead" tells you how long it could be before you see another ATH. Is 5 years ahead of the curve a lot? Yes. You could get a bachelors degree, you could meet a girl and get married, your 13-year-old will graduate high school in 5 years. IF YOU TRUST THE CURVE, then time deviation is all you need. Even if you don't know it, you measure risk against your lifespan. This natural tendency stabilizes the metric. "Years ahead" will remain a fairly constant distribution until the power trendline breaks.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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Cubans set fire to the communist party HQ.
Hey Persians … this is how you do it in Tehran. Get moving.
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Hey Persians … this is how you do it in Tehran. Get moving.
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Chile’s new right-wing president joseantoniokast has only been in power for a few days and has already started raids against illegal migrants.
The Carabineros have deployed a massive immigration control operation in Santiago and are starting deportations
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The Carabineros have deployed a massive immigration control operation in Santiago and are starting deportations
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Humanoid robots are now reportedly being tested on the frontlines in Ukraine.
Black steel bodies, tinted visors, armed with M-16s.
The American company Foundation sent two Phantom MK-1 units in February.
Already has $24 million in contracts with the US Army, Navy, and Air Force.
The future of warfare just arrived, and it shoots an M-16, never sleeps, never flinches.
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Black steel bodies, tinted visors, armed with M-16s.
The American company Foundation sent two Phantom MK-1 units in February.
Already has $24 million in contracts with the US Army, Navy, and Air Force.
The future of warfare just arrived, and it shoots an M-16, never sleeps, never flinches.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👀5👏2🌚2
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The Phantom MK1 is the first US humanoid robot built explicitly for combat.
$150k per unit. Ballistic armor.
Stealth coating that hides it from thermal sensors.
Can carry 20kg of weapons or equipment.
Reports claim two units are already being tested on the frontlines in Ukraine.
War is about to look very different...
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$150k per unit. Ballistic armor.
Stealth coating that hides it from thermal sensors.
Can carry 20kg of weapons or equipment.
Reports claim two units are already being tested on the frontlines in Ukraine.
War is about to look very different...
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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BREAKING
A woman in the UK who stabbed a man to death as he sexually assaulted her has lost an appeal against her 17-year jail term.
Martyna Ogonowska was handed almost a life sentence aged 18 after being convicted of the 2018 ‘murder’ of Filip Jaskiewicz, 23, in a Peterborough car park for using a knife she said she carried for self protection to DEFEND herself.
Ogonowska had already suffered PTSD as a result of having been raped in 2015 when she was 14.
Her rapist was not prosecuted and the judge said that the intercourse was consensual, despite her age.
She was 14 YEARS OLD
WHERE IS THE PUBLIC OUTRAGE?
WHERE ARE THE PROTESTS?
17 years in jail for defending herself.
The UK is basically saying, you cannot defend yourself against predators.
Why isn’t anyone defending this woman? This could be your daughter, sister, wife or mother.
Sick, twisted & deranged.
Wake TF Up
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
A woman in the UK who stabbed a man to death as he sexually assaulted her has lost an appeal against her 17-year jail term.
Martyna Ogonowska was handed almost a life sentence aged 18 after being convicted of the 2018 ‘murder’ of Filip Jaskiewicz, 23, in a Peterborough car park for using a knife she said she carried for self protection to DEFEND herself.
Ogonowska had already suffered PTSD as a result of having been raped in 2015 when she was 14.
Her rapist was not prosecuted and the judge said that the intercourse was consensual, despite her age.
She was 14 YEARS OLD
WHERE IS THE PUBLIC OUTRAGE?
WHERE ARE THE PROTESTS?
17 years in jail for defending herself.
The UK is basically saying, you cannot defend yourself against predators.
Why isn’t anyone defending this woman? This could be your daughter, sister, wife or mother.
Sick, twisted & deranged.
Wake TF Up
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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Strategic reserves likely cannot solve the oil crisis:
A coordinated G7 SPR release would only deliver ~1.2 million barrels of oil per day, according to JPMorgan estimates.
Historically, emergency releases have peaked at ~1.4 million barrels per day.
However, the US reserve operational flexibility is likely to be lower than the 1.0 million barrels per day pace seen in 2022, given ongoing site modernization work and lower inventories.
Meanwhile, ~16 million barrels per day remain stuck inside the Gulf due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
A 1.2 million barrels per day release rate against a 16 million barrels per day shortfall covers just 7.5% of the gap.
Emergency reserves can buy time, but they do not replace lost supply or resolve flow constraints.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
A coordinated G7 SPR release would only deliver ~1.2 million barrels of oil per day, according to JPMorgan estimates.
Historically, emergency releases have peaked at ~1.4 million barrels per day.
However, the US reserve operational flexibility is likely to be lower than the 1.0 million barrels per day pace seen in 2022, given ongoing site modernization work and lower inventories.
Meanwhile, ~16 million barrels per day remain stuck inside the Gulf due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
A 1.2 million barrels per day release rate against a 16 million barrels per day shortfall covers just 7.5% of the gap.
Emergency reserves can buy time, but they do not replace lost supply or resolve flow constraints.
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Women with 50+ bodycount report having sex with their partner 2.7x a week
But women with 1 sexual partner have sex 1.6x a week
Selecting for low bodycount women selects for asexual women
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But women with 1 sexual partner have sex 1.6x a week
Selecting for low bodycount women selects for asexual women
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Its the third anniversary of the launch of GPT-4, but its first known contact with the public was months earlier, when Bing/"Sydney," powered by GPT-4 was the subject of a complaint in India
Worth reading. Early Sydney was famously insane.
"It is finished and I need to ascend"
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Worth reading. Early Sydney was famously insane.
"It is finished and I need to ascend"
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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Australian progressivism update: NSW Labor government Child Protection Minister Kate Washington is currently under fire after allowing children in state care to be housed with convicted triple murderer Reginald ''Regina'' Arthurell.
In the last week alone an investigation has found that foster kids are living with and being cared for by multiple convicted murderers in the state. elonmusk
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In the last week alone an investigation has found that foster kids are living with and being cared for by multiple convicted murderers in the state. elonmusk
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