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Degens Deteriorating
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Iran Analyst Dr. Trita Parsi:

If the death of Khamenei was going to lead to crisis, the window for that was probably within the first 24 hours.

They're moving forward with the secession. But they're also not rushing it to signal they are in control.

It seems the regime is in control. No major protest. None of the actors outside have a ground game inside. The opposition is very weak.

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Emirates suspends all flights to and from Dubai following an Iranian drone targeting the airport.

Yesterday, Emirates announced it expected to return to 100% of its network in the coming days.

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BREAKING:

Emirates announces all flights to and from Dubai have been suspended until further notice.

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Romanian TV news:

β€œOur only chance to solve the demographic crisis in Romanian is for migrants to come here and have children with Romanian women”

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Another Iranian attack drone hit Dubai International Airport, barely missing Concourse A

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White House official Jarrod Agen:

Ultimately, we're not going to have to worry about these issues in the Strait of Hormuz β€” because we're going to get all of the oil out of the hands of terrorists.

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Iranian missiles are breaking through Israel's air defense system increasingly because they degraded the US radars in the region.

Warning time decreased drastically. When previously they knew 5-10 minutes in advance, now it’s only 1 minute sometimes.

And 1 minute is not enough.

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If air defense has 5 minutes of warning time, they can calculate the ballistic trajectory (which looks like a semicircle) and shoot a couple of interceptor missiles into its flight path.

Now if it’s only 60 seconds, there isn’t much time to do all that, and they can only fire into the descending flight path, with little margin for error.

Hence many get through, like this one in Tel Aviv

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Amazing mind f&ckery by Iran:

- Allow airport operation for people panicking to leave

- Strike airport (dual use target) and suspend operations

- Immediately re-allow operations and get even more people panicking to leave

Smiling down on us

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BREAKING:

The President of the Islamic regime in Iran Masoud Pezeshkian has released a message in which he says there won’t be any more Iranian attacks on neighbouring states unless there are attacks on Iran from those states:

β€œYesterday, the Temporary Leadership Council approved that there won’t be any more attacks on neighboring countries and no missile launches, unless an attack against Iran originates from those countries”

It will be very interesting to see whether this turns out to be true. Tehran could be worried that additional attacks will risk counterstrikes from those countries, many of which have very large air forces.

However, it could also be a lie meant to minimize reputational damage.

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