In Jebel Ali, Dubai a building was just hit by an Iranian drone but it failed to detonate

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BREAKING: Iran has named Alireza Arafi as their interim Supreme Leader following the death of Khamenei.

He's known for:

1. Being a long-time insider in Iran’s political hierarchy

2. Spending decades within Iran’s theological and political institutions

3. Being appointed by Khamenei to several roles

4. Being considered for years as a possible successor to Khamenei

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is alive, stating this morning on state-run television that the Interim Leadership Council is now operational and has assumed constitutional control of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pezeshkian adds that, “We will continue the path of the Leader with strength. Our Armed Forces are crushing the bases of the enemies.”

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BREAKING:

A video has been released of Belgian forces boarding & seizing the Russian shadow fleet oil tanker MV Ethera

It has been taken to the port of Zeebrugge

European countries seizing Russian oil tankers will help collapse Russia’s economy. Congratulations FranckenTheo!

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Everybody is concentrating on the Iranians shutting the Strait of Hormuz. But that's not the worst case scenario.

policytensor makes the point that the worst case scenario is that Tehran starts destroying the Gulf's entire oil and gas infrastructure. The strategic need is there: only the threat of severe pain will make the US stop, and the closer the regime comes to collapse, the higher their risk tolerance will be. Furthermore, as we are now seeing, Saudi, the UAE and other states, save Oman, are co-belligerents.

All the main fields and ports are within short-range missile (or even artillery!) range of the Iranian coast. Furthermore, all those areas are majority Shia, a population that has been brutally oppressed for decades (much like the population in Iran, ironically enough).

So, the worst case scenario is that the Iranians, with some combination of missile/drone attacks and Shia militias start destroying the oil wells and processing infrastructure. I cannot remember who pointed out that when the Iraqis retreated from Kuwait in 91, they set the oil fields on fire and it took a year to put them all out.

If oil markets start pricing this in, the benchmarks—Brent, and then later, WTI—are going to be well north of a hundred.

And what then?

If oil stays there because the Strait is shut long term, then it is possible that Trump imposes export controls on US oil and gas to hold prices down before the midterms. And what then for Europe? No Russian oil and gas, no Gulf oil and gas. Only American, which Trump might stop for political gain. So what then?

This is the worst case scenario, as described by policytensor. I am less convinced. The Iranians have threatened a big game before and not done it. This time does feel different, but I will believe it when I see it.

Still, we must ask the EU+UK to start considering this possibility.

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Just a reminder of what the British found when they got to Africa

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BREAKING: Iran says it has targeted US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln using 4 ballistic missiles

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Okay we are monitoring the situation

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Everyone around is shooting rockets, but they forgot to invite that very guy who loves rockets more than anyone else in the world

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JUST IN: Trump seems to be blaming MITCH McCONNELL for BLOCKING the SAVE America Act in the Senate

McConnell is HELLBENT on doing as much damage as he can before retiring in disgrace.

What a loser.

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