BIG WARNING: S&P 500 SETUP IS LOOKING FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN PEOPLE REALIZE.
Price is still holding up, but fundamentals and strength are getting worse.
Let’s start with the economy first.
The latest Challenger data showed 108,435 layoffs in January 2026, the worst January since 2009, when the U.S. was already in recession.
At the same time, hiring is not replacing those jobs.
The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio has dropped to 0.87, meaning there are only 87 jobs available for every 100 unemployed workers.
Job openings have also fallen to 6.5 million, the lowest level in more than five years.
Wage growth has also slowed down to 0.7% in Q4, the weakest pace in 4.5 years.
Then comes housing, which is another major economic pillar.
Right now, U.S. home sellers outnumber buyers by roughly 630,000, the biggest gap ever recorded.
Now let's talk about spending.
Core retail spending fell 0.1% in December, the weakest since May 2025.
Now shift to the bond market.
The 10-year yield is rising much faster than the 2-year yield, creating a bear steepening environment.
On top of that, major countries are exiting their US bond holdings, which is causing more upward pressure on yields.
And this is happening while multiple external pressures are still active:
• Iran tensions remain unresolved.
• China continues reducing Treasury exposure.
• The Fed is maintaining a hawkish tone.
Now look at the technical side.
The daily RSI is showing weakness even while price is pushing higher, a structure very similar to what we saw in Q1 2025 before a major correction.
When price rises but momentum fades, it often signals late-stage trend exhaustion rather than fresh strength.
So when you combine everything:
-> Weakening labor data.
-> Falling job demand.
-> Lower spending
-> Housing imbalance.
-> Bear steepening in bonds.
-> Geopolitical risk.
-> Hawkish Fed stance.
-> Momentum divergence on charts.
You get a market that is losing strength and detached from the fundamentals, which often don't last long.
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Price is still holding up, but fundamentals and strength are getting worse.
Let’s start with the economy first.
The latest Challenger data showed 108,435 layoffs in January 2026, the worst January since 2009, when the U.S. was already in recession.
At the same time, hiring is not replacing those jobs.
The vacancy-to-unemployed ratio has dropped to 0.87, meaning there are only 87 jobs available for every 100 unemployed workers.
Job openings have also fallen to 6.5 million, the lowest level in more than five years.
Wage growth has also slowed down to 0.7% in Q4, the weakest pace in 4.5 years.
Then comes housing, which is another major economic pillar.
Right now, U.S. home sellers outnumber buyers by roughly 630,000, the biggest gap ever recorded.
Now let's talk about spending.
Core retail spending fell 0.1% in December, the weakest since May 2025.
Now shift to the bond market.
The 10-year yield is rising much faster than the 2-year yield, creating a bear steepening environment.
On top of that, major countries are exiting their US bond holdings, which is causing more upward pressure on yields.
And this is happening while multiple external pressures are still active:
• Iran tensions remain unresolved.
• China continues reducing Treasury exposure.
• The Fed is maintaining a hawkish tone.
Now look at the technical side.
The daily RSI is showing weakness even while price is pushing higher, a structure very similar to what we saw in Q1 2025 before a major correction.
When price rises but momentum fades, it often signals late-stage trend exhaustion rather than fresh strength.
So when you combine everything:
-> Weakening labor data.
-> Falling job demand.
-> Lower spending
-> Housing imbalance.
-> Bear steepening in bonds.
-> Geopolitical risk.
-> Hawkish Fed stance.
-> Momentum divergence on charts.
You get a market that is losing strength and detached from the fundamentals, which often don't last long.
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BREAKING: The inflation-adjusted average starting salary for college graduates is down -8% YoY, to ~$54,500, the lowest in at least 6 years.
This marks the 4th consecutive annual decline.
Salaries have plummeted -24% in real terms since the ~$71,000 peak seen in 2021.
This comes as graduates are being pushed into lower-paying roles that often have little to do with their degree.
The % of recent graduates whose first job aligns with their field of study has fallen from 26% for the 2022 cohort to 20% for the 2025 cohort.
Young Americans are unable to find jobs.
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This marks the 4th consecutive annual decline.
Salaries have plummeted -24% in real terms since the ~$71,000 peak seen in 2021.
This comes as graduates are being pushed into lower-paying roles that often have little to do with their degree.
The % of recent graduates whose first job aligns with their field of study has fallen from 26% for the 2022 cohort to 20% for the 2025 cohort.
Young Americans are unable to find jobs.
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JUST IN - FBI releases images of potential suspect in the Nancy Guthrie case, asking public for help identifying the suspect
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This striking macro image uncovers the real reason bee stings hurt so intensely.
New high-resolution imaging exposes the hidden serrated design that makes a bee sting far more painful than a medical needle.
Unlike a hypodermic needle—smooth, polished, and engineered to glide through skin with minimal tissue disruption—a honeybee’s stinger is a sophisticated natural weapon built for maximum damage and retention. Close-up views reveal a shaft lined with dozens of sharp, backward-facing barbs that resemble tiny saw teeth. As the stinger penetrates, these jagged edges rip and catch on surrounding tissue, creating far greater mechanical trauma than the clean puncture of a surgical needle and making the stinger extremely difficult to extract without additional tearing.
The physical injury is only part of the story. Once lodged, the bee rapidly injects a complex venom blend specifically evolved to aggressively stimulate pain receptors and trigger rapid, intense inflammation. This powerful combination of brutal mechanical disruption and targeted chemical attack produces a level of pain that far exceeds what a simple needle prick would cause—even one delivering the same volume of liquid.
These microscopic details highlight nature’s remarkable engineering for defense: every backward barb is precisely shaped to inflict lasting pain and discourage future threats. The image serves as a vivid reminder of how evolution has turned a tiny structure into one of the insect world’s most effective deterrents.
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New high-resolution imaging exposes the hidden serrated design that makes a bee sting far more painful than a medical needle.
Unlike a hypodermic needle—smooth, polished, and engineered to glide through skin with minimal tissue disruption—a honeybee’s stinger is a sophisticated natural weapon built for maximum damage and retention. Close-up views reveal a shaft lined with dozens of sharp, backward-facing barbs that resemble tiny saw teeth. As the stinger penetrates, these jagged edges rip and catch on surrounding tissue, creating far greater mechanical trauma than the clean puncture of a surgical needle and making the stinger extremely difficult to extract without additional tearing.
The physical injury is only part of the story. Once lodged, the bee rapidly injects a complex venom blend specifically evolved to aggressively stimulate pain receptors and trigger rapid, intense inflammation. This powerful combination of brutal mechanical disruption and targeted chemical attack produces a level of pain that far exceeds what a simple needle prick would cause—even one delivering the same volume of liquid.
These microscopic details highlight nature’s remarkable engineering for defense: every backward barb is precisely shaped to inflict lasting pain and discourage future threats. The image serves as a vivid reminder of how evolution has turned a tiny structure into one of the insect world’s most effective deterrents.
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Today's high $70,465, with the latest ATH at $126,272.
It has been 127 days since the last ATH.
ATHs per year: 2010: 11, 2011: 28, 2013: 35, 2017: 67, 2020: 11, 2021: 23, 2024: 21, 2025: 12. bitcoin $BTC ATH BitcoinChartBot
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It has been 127 days since the last ATH.
ATHs per year: 2010: 11, 2011: 28, 2013: 35, 2017: 67, 2020: 11, 2021: 23, 2024: 21, 2025: 12. bitcoin $BTC ATH BitcoinChartBot
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NEW - Lisa Murkowski becomes the first Republican senator to reject passing the SAVE Act, which would require proof of citizenship to vote nationwide
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Adderall men create good times. Good times create Weed men. Weed men create hard times. Hard times create Adderall men
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BREAKING:
Trump said he might send a second aircraft carrier to strike Iran if negotiations fail.
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Trump said he might send a second aircraft carrier to strike Iran if negotiations fail.
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Americans are extremely bullish on the stock market:
50% of Americans now expect the stock market to rise over the next 6 months, the 2nd-highest reading since 2020, according to a January Gallup poll.
This is above the long-term average of ~45% seen from 2006 to 2019.
By comparison, the previous peaks were 61% in January 2025 and 59% in December 2003.
At the same time, only 25% surveyed saw the market declining, the 2nd-lowest reading since 2014.
Meanwhile, 50% expect unemployment to increase, the highest percentage since May 2009, even higher than the 49% seen during the 2020 pandemic.
The disconnect between stock market expectations and economic fears has rarely been this wide.
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50% of Americans now expect the stock market to rise over the next 6 months, the 2nd-highest reading since 2020, according to a January Gallup poll.
This is above the long-term average of ~45% seen from 2006 to 2019.
By comparison, the previous peaks were 61% in January 2025 and 59% in December 2003.
At the same time, only 25% surveyed saw the market declining, the 2nd-lowest reading since 2014.
Meanwhile, 50% expect unemployment to increase, the highest percentage since May 2009, even higher than the 49% seen during the 2020 pandemic.
The disconnect between stock market expectations and economic fears has rarely been this wide.
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An older man sits down for a haircut, hears it’s $30, and immediately walks out saying he’s not paying that.
Is $30 too much for a haircut? How much do you pay?
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Is $30 too much for a haircut? How much do you pay?
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Auto loan credit quality is tumbling: average FICO scores for newly originated auto loans have plunged in recent quarters
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