$BILLY @ $42M
$BOBBY just 4x’ed in a few min
FWIW, can see the case for, when it’s clear there’s a big new trend, people wanting to diversify into some of the copycats that appear simultaneously,
As e.g. VCs have often done,
Since, though the 1st is a special place, which usually wins, sometimes the 1st gets screwed up horribly, usually for the stupidest reasons, and then 2nd or 3rd dominates
E.g.
JENNER vs MOTHER
RNT vs DADDY
Myspace vs Facebook
Etc.
But even so, the first still often remains the winner, so this is about diversifying to capture all who have a shot at the top spot,
and NOT about skipping the leader to get a much lower-cap copycat, just because it’s lower cap — which something different, and is generally a horrible move done by very bad investors.
$BOBBY just 4x’ed in a few min
FWIW, can see the case for, when it’s clear there’s a big new trend, people wanting to diversify into some of the copycats that appear simultaneously,
As e.g. VCs have often done,
Since, though the 1st is a special place, which usually wins, sometimes the 1st gets screwed up horribly, usually for the stupidest reasons, and then 2nd or 3rd dominates
E.g.
JENNER vs MOTHER
RNT vs DADDY
Myspace vs Facebook
Etc.
But even so, the first still often remains the winner, so this is about diversifying to capture all who have a shot at the top spot,
and NOT about skipping the leader to get a much lower-cap copycat, just because it’s lower cap — which something different, and is generally a horrible move done by very bad investors.
$Bobby now 6x what it was a few min ago
FWIW, should also say, my general strategy, if I am going to get into something — which I almost never do — but if i do,
my strategy is to force a decision UP-FRONT, right at the beginning, before sharing any screenshots or anything, which usually involves urgently searching everywhere for all possible signals asap,
Either in or out, right up front.
Whatever you’re going to put in, front load it up front, or forever hold your peace.
Idea here is to NEVER wait to see more price action first, which creates huge potential to get sucked into investing based on upward price movement, which often is a death trap
In backtesting past decisions, this tends to work out incredibly well — nearly always, even for the failures that crash down a lot, had I put in money right in the beginning, as soon as I’d received a solid signal for something, then even after a later crash down, the price still extremely often remains above where it had been near the beginning.
Speed can be massively important in hot markets.
The advantage you have by acting fast, can so often outstrip the certainty advantage you get by waiting a protracted time to see more.
Biggest point here: Generally suicidal to “wait to see more”, for something you already like and see more than enough good signals for, especially since “wait to see more” tends to mean using upward price movement as a signal - at which point your entry is far worse.
And really some version of this has been classic startup VC investment advice too, since the dawn of time.
(Mostly applies to earliest stage investing, ofc.)
Nothing new under the sun.
FWIW, should also say, my general strategy, if I am going to get into something — which I almost never do — but if i do,
my strategy is to force a decision UP-FRONT, right at the beginning, before sharing any screenshots or anything, which usually involves urgently searching everywhere for all possible signals asap,
Either in or out, right up front.
Whatever you’re going to put in, front load it up front, or forever hold your peace.
Idea here is to NEVER wait to see more price action first, which creates huge potential to get sucked into investing based on upward price movement, which often is a death trap
In backtesting past decisions, this tends to work out incredibly well — nearly always, even for the failures that crash down a lot, had I put in money right in the beginning, as soon as I’d received a solid signal for something, then even after a later crash down, the price still extremely often remains above where it had been near the beginning.
Speed can be massively important in hot markets.
The advantage you have by acting fast, can so often outstrip the certainty advantage you get by waiting a protracted time to see more.
Biggest point here: Generally suicidal to “wait to see more”, for something you already like and see more than enough good signals for, especially since “wait to see more” tends to mean using upward price movement as a signal - at which point your entry is far worse.
And really some version of this has been classic startup VC investment advice too, since the dawn of time.
(Mostly applies to earliest stage investing, ofc.)
Nothing new under the sun.
🔥2
As expected, $BILLY & $NIGGY dominating in today’s dog cycle
Not-so-coincidentally, also the only 2 that are actual somewhat original jokes / plays on words
($MILLY is also a play on words, but not original enough, too much of a copycat of $BILLY without enough added originality)
But there’s a bigger thing, that dominates a lot of whales minds
Each time a big whale considers putting in money, they know that they’re about to make a bunch of people rich,
So the question each whale quickly comes to face is,
— Are the people holding this coin the type of people I want to make rich?
IMO, this one huge, underrecognized factor.
Basically you, as a whale, are anointing the next thought leaders, like it or not
— So are the holders of the coin the type of people you want to be the next thought leaders?
Examples:
$BOME — Yes, the presale audience was leading-edge tastemakers with good taste. Easy to see how making them rich would lead to them imposing their superior taste on the whole rest of the ecosystem. Yes, good that they become the next thought leaders of the meme cycle.
$BILLY — here we’ve got the based16z audiece. Probably a pretty based audience. Yes, good that they become the next thought leaders of the meme cycle.
$NIGGY — early backers of that are probably some humor-loving, non-woke dudes. Sure, good that they become the next thought leaders of the meme cycle.
Etc.
Big thing here is that it’s the type of thing you as a whale can be happy about even if you get wrecked as a whale on the trade itself — redistributing funds to those who you want to be the next thought leaders has value in and of itself.
This creates extra upward pressure, people wanting to put in money even if they don’t strongly believe the coin itself will have big returns. The shaping of the next thought leaders is itself a type of value.
Think like a whale: think about who would be made rich, should the coin succeed, are they who you want to be the future thought leaders?
Ofc, this is classic startup investing advice too.
Nothing new under the sun.
Not-so-coincidentally, also the only 2 that are actual somewhat original jokes / plays on words
($MILLY is also a play on words, but not original enough, too much of a copycat of $BILLY without enough added originality)
But there’s a bigger thing, that dominates a lot of whales minds
Each time a big whale considers putting in money, they know that they’re about to make a bunch of people rich,
So the question each whale quickly comes to face is,
— Are the people holding this coin the type of people I want to make rich?
IMO, this one huge, underrecognized factor.
Basically you, as a whale, are anointing the next thought leaders, like it or not
— So are the holders of the coin the type of people you want to be the next thought leaders?
Examples:
$BOME — Yes, the presale audience was leading-edge tastemakers with good taste. Easy to see how making them rich would lead to them imposing their superior taste on the whole rest of the ecosystem. Yes, good that they become the next thought leaders of the meme cycle.
$BILLY — here we’ve got the based16z audiece. Probably a pretty based audience. Yes, good that they become the next thought leaders of the meme cycle.
$NIGGY — early backers of that are probably some humor-loving, non-woke dudes. Sure, good that they become the next thought leaders of the meme cycle.
Etc.
Big thing here is that it’s the type of thing you as a whale can be happy about even if you get wrecked as a whale on the trade itself — redistributing funds to those who you want to be the next thought leaders has value in and of itself.
This creates extra upward pressure, people wanting to put in money even if they don’t strongly believe the coin itself will have big returns. The shaping of the next thought leaders is itself a type of value.
Think like a whale: think about who would be made rich, should the coin succeed, are they who you want to be the future thought leaders?
Ofc, this is classic startup investing advice too.
Nothing new under the sun.
DoomPosting
$Bobby now 6x what it was a few min ago FWIW, should also say, my general strategy, if I am going to get into something — which I almost never do — but if i do, my strategy is to force a decision UP-FRONT, right at the beginning, before sharing any screenshots…
A bit early to call this one, but case in point, as a rough example —
(A) Up-front: Made aware of it at $549k cap — had you put in money up-front there, and you’re still in the green, since current cap is $1.8M.
(B) Wait & see: But, had you instead waited for upward price action to give you the confidence to put in money, you’d have bought in at $2.8M cap, right after the big surge — You’d be way down now, since current cap is $1.8M.
= So often better to very quickly front-weight, deciding based on factors other than upward price movements, instead of waiting for upward price movement to give you more confidence and then investing.
(FWIW, as written above, never liked $BOBBY on its own, simply because there’s zero joke there. Copycat and without any additional joke. At best useful for diversification, if you’re already heavily invested in the #1 leader, in case that leader massively screws up, but that’s about it. Not so good on its own.)
(A) Up-front: Made aware of it at $549k cap — had you put in money up-front there, and you’re still in the green, since current cap is $1.8M.
(B) Wait & see: But, had you instead waited for upward price action to give you the confidence to put in money, you’d have bought in at $2.8M cap, right after the big surge — You’d be way down now, since current cap is $1.8M.
= So often better to very quickly front-weight, deciding based on factors other than upward price movements, instead of waiting for upward price movement to give you more confidence and then investing.
(FWIW, as written above, never liked $BOBBY on its own, simply because there’s zero joke there. Copycat and without any additional joke. At best useful for diversification, if you’re already heavily invested in the #1 leader, in case that leader massively screws up, but that’s about it. Not so good on its own.)
DoomPosting
sus
Liability-based theory of value.
Established niche crypto influencers,
who are among the very few who put a long hours building up their reputation through the bear market,
(in theory frauds could do this too, but for whatever reason they don’t, frauds dissapear in bear markets)
even if still with tiny follower counts,
Doing a rare and substantial staking of their reputation on something,
(Would be worthlessly diluted if they do it all the time)
risking all those hours having gone to waste, should it fail.
Liability theory of value.
Established niche crypto influencers,
who are among the very few who put a long hours building up their reputation through the bear market,
(in theory frauds could do this too, but for whatever reason they don’t, frauds dissapear in bear markets)
even if still with tiny follower counts,
Doing a rare and substantial staking of their reputation on something,
(Would be worthlessly diluted if they do it all the time)
risking all those hours having gone to waste, should it fail.
Liability theory of value.
DoomPosting
sus
Second, notice how he says that if you moon this coin, you make him rich.
A whale betting big on this coin is an act of making this guy, and those who align with him, the next thought leaders of the industry.
Mooning-as-election of thought leaders theory of value.
(All value types are generally additive, roughly speaking.)
A whale betting big on this coin is an act of making this guy, and those who align with him, the next thought leaders of the industry.
Mooning-as-election of thought leaders theory of value.
(All value types are generally additive, roughly speaking.)
FWIW, using
“sus” as shorthand for
→
“that’s weird” as shorthand for
→
“this is so unusual that it’s likely either a huge win or huge scam, so better drop everything I’m doing and dig to get to the bottom of what’s happening asap, to see if we can figure out which one it is”
I.e. not a statement of confidence in goodness or badness, rather a call to action, to figure out what tf is going on, try to gather what’s needed to get that confidence
“sus” as shorthand for
→
“that’s weird” as shorthand for
→
“this is so unusual that it’s likely either a huge win or huge scam, so better drop everything I’m doing and dig to get to the bottom of what’s happening asap, to see if we can figure out which one it is”
I.e. not a statement of confidence in goodness or badness, rather a call to action, to figure out what tf is going on, try to gather what’s needed to get that confidence
👏1