So wouldn’t bet on it,
But tell ya what, here’s a signal that I haven’t properly backtested, but anecdotally is looking spot-on for all the cases I checked
= on the 15min timescale, real bangers tend to practically always going up for all, or almost all of the first 2 hours post launch
Whereas losers the opposite.
So here, from the start to 16:30, on this 15min timescale, I’d like to see rising volume.
Perhaps a large part of why this works is that, with things like pump.fun, reaching the real dexes = seen as kind of a exit event, especially for serial pump & dumps
Whereas the good ones have enough interest that they’re powering through those first ~2 hours, increasing volume.
But tell ya what, here’s a signal that I haven’t properly backtested, but anecdotally is looking spot-on for all the cases I checked
= on the 15min timescale, real bangers tend to practically always going up for all, or almost all of the first 2 hours post launch
Whereas losers the opposite.
So here, from the start to 16:30, on this 15min timescale, I’d like to see rising volume.
Perhaps a large part of why this works is that, with things like pump.fun, reaching the real dexes = seen as kind of a exit event, especially for serial pump & dumps
Whereas the good ones have enough interest that they’re powering through those first ~2 hours, increasing volume.
👏2
Example,
$DAVIDO with the descending volume for first 2 hours of launch, on the 15min timescale,
and where it subsequently went
$DAVIDO with the descending volume for first 2 hours of launch, on the 15min timescale,
and where it subsequently went
$BOME, with upward-sloping volume for the first ~2 hours, on the 15min timescale,
(11k, 700k, 3m, 2.4m, 3.5m, 2.4m, 3.5m, 4.7m, 5.8m,…)
And where it subsequently went
(11k, 700k, 3m, 2.4m, 3.5m, 2.4m, 3.5m, 4.7m, 5.8m,…)
And where it subsequently went
$COUPE, with choppy downward sloping volume in the first 2h on the 15min timescale
…and where it ultimately went
…and where it ultimately went
$MAGA/SOL, smooth ramp-up on volume in the first 2 hours,
and 10xing soon after, and multiple times subsequently
Ok, wasn’t an absolute banger,
…but does to this day remain above the price it was when it completed that first 2 hours, and did multiple 10x’s inbetween
…And it was the 5000th MAGA clone, which complicates things.
Perhaps if you always get in at that price at the end of those 2 hours, on non-blatant-rug coins where there’s a good 2 hours ramp-up on, you’d be EV+
(Again, did not backtest myself, but imo clearly a promising signal to properly look into)
and 10xing soon after, and multiple times subsequently
Ok, wasn’t an absolute banger,
…but does to this day remain above the price it was when it completed that first 2 hours, and did multiple 10x’s inbetween
…And it was the 5000th MAGA clone, which complicates things.
Perhaps if you always get in at that price at the end of those 2 hours, on non-blatant-rug coins where there’s a good 2 hours ramp-up on, you’d be EV+
(Again, did not backtest myself, but imo clearly a promising signal to properly look into)