Markets, Money & Crypto: What 2026 Holds

Crypto in 2025 didn’t meet our expectations - but that’s part of the journey. Unexpected political, economic and monetary events lined up, resulting in a bad year for crypto and macroeconomic uncertainty. But looking ahead to 2026, the setup looks a lot better:

- Quantitative tightening is expected to wind down, with quantitative easing potentially returning.

- U.S. interest rates are finally moving lower. They are expected to continue to go lower in 2026.

- Liquidity, which had been largely absent during 2025, is starting to return.

- Commodities such as gold and silver, have gone parabolic. As they become increasingly expensive, capital is likely to rotate into alternative assets. Bitcoin, and some altcoins, are the perfect alternative. Wait until they find out Bitcoin is gold 2.0 ...

- Altcoins have been in a four-year bear market relative to Bitcoin. A breakout occurred in May, followed by a recent retest. The technical setup of altcoins for an outperformance versus Bitcoin looks good.

- AI stocks have absorbed the majority of attention and liquidity. The market is increasingly viewing the sector as crowded or bubble-like, which could drive capital elsewhere.

- Macroeconomic uncertainty and recession fears previously pushed investors away from risk assets like crypto. U.S. recession probabilities for 2026 have since fallen to around 30% (they were at 70%), while the EU economy is expected to rebound and return to growth.

- With U.S. midterm elections in November 2026, political incentives will favor policies that support financial markets, including crypto. Trump promised to be 'the crypto President' and has some catching up to do to keep his crypto voters.

- A new Federal Reserve chair is expected in 2026 when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. The replacement, to be appointed by president Trump, will inevitably make a shift in monetary policy direction. Trump wants a different direction, and wants interest rates to go down faster. The person he will appoint is expected to follow his guidelines (or at least more than Powell did).

Bottom line:

2026 looks like a regime change: QT is over, rates are falling, and liquidity is returning. Capital is rotating away from crowded trades (commodities, AI) toward under-owned risk like crypto. Macro fear is easing, politics favor market support, and altcoins are historically well-positioned. If crypto can’t work in this setup, then I don't know anymore.

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