US UNEMPLOYMENT JUST HIT ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR YEARS

And this is a nightmare for the Fed.

Today the unemployment rate came in at 4.6% vs 4.5% expected, and this is the highest reading since September 2021.

And this is pointing towards a serious danger.

This tells us the US labor market is now weaker than at any point in the last four years.

Hiring is slowing.

Growth is losing momentum.

At the same time, inflation is still around 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

This is the Fed’s worst setup.

Growth is slowing, but inflation is still high. That is the definition of stagflation.

And stagflation leaves the Fed with no good choices.

If the Fed does not cut rates, the risk of recession rises quickly.

A weak labour market combined with high interest rates usually leads to accelerating job losses.

But if the Fed does cut rates, inflation could reaccelerate.

We’ve seen this before.

In 2020, the Fed cut too aggressively, and inflation surged in 2021.

In 2022, the Fed was forced to start QT and aggressive rate hikes.

Now the Fed is trapped between those two mistakes.

This is why the unemployment data matters so much.

The Fed had broadly planned not to cut rates in January.

This unemployment spike puts that plan under pressure.

Ignore the data, and risk a recession.

React too fast, and risk another inflation wave.

There is also a bigger historical warning here.

In the 1970s, the US economy faced something similar.

Inflation was going up, unemployment was going up while the economic growth was stagnant.

Back then, the Fed hiked interest rates to almost 20% and crushed inflation.

But this led to a lost decade, as the S&P 500 had a 0% return from 1970-1980.

The risk today is similar but not of that magnitude.

Still, the Fed needs to fight this.

If the Fed focuses on reviving the labor market, there will be a rally first and then a massive crash.

If the Fed focuses on bringing inflation down, there will be a massive crash followed by a huge rally.

I don't think that the Fed will do what it did in 1970, so more easing is expected in 2026.

But what'll happen after that will be obvious.

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