Key Events This Week🔊
Monday, December 1:
4:45 PM - Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (letter)
5:00 PM - ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (sheet)
Tuesday, December 2:
3:00 AM - Fed Chairman Powell's Speech
5:00 PM - JOLTS Job Openings (ver)
Wednesday, December 3:
3:15 PM - ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (sheet)
4:45 PM - Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (letter)
5:00 PM - ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (letter)
5:30 PM - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, December 4:
3:30 PM - Initial Jobless Claims Unemployment
Friday, December 5:
5:00 PM - Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (MoM) (ver)
5:00 PM - Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (Rs) (ver)
Have a great week everyone 💪🏻
Monday, December 1:
4:45 PM - Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (letter)
5:00 PM - ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (sheet)
Tuesday, December 2:
3:00 AM - Fed Chairman Powell's Speech
5:00 PM - JOLTS Job Openings (ver)
Wednesday, December 3:
3:15 PM - ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (sheet)
4:45 PM - Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (letter)
5:00 PM - ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (letter)
5:30 PM - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, December 4:
3:30 PM - Initial Jobless Claims Unemployment
Friday, December 5:
5:00 PM - Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (MoM) (ver)
5:00 PM - Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (Rs) (ver)
Have a great week everyone 💪🏻
The shutdown is almost over 🗣
The US Senate has approved the government reopening bill ~ the required number of votes has been reached. The final vote will take place tomorrow, and the House of Representatives will consider the document on Wednesday.
Therefore, the US government could reopen as early as this week.
Trump stated: "We're close to ending the shutdown. Everything will become clear very soon."
The market reacted with growth 🕶
Bitcoin rose above
$106,000
Ethereum broke through
$3,600
Alts rose by an average of 15-30% in a day.
💬 Guys, do you think this is truly positive news or another attempt at market manipulation? 😈
The US Senate has approved the government reopening bill ~ the required number of votes has been reached. The final vote will take place tomorrow, and the House of Representatives will consider the document on Wednesday.
Therefore, the US government could reopen as early as this week.
Trump stated: "We're close to ending the shutdown. Everything will become clear very soon."
The market reacted with growth 🕶
Bitcoin rose above
$106,000
Ethereum broke through
$3,600
Alts rose by an average of 15-30% in a day.
💬 Guys, do you think this is truly positive news or another attempt at market manipulation? 😈
🇺🇸Markets are 86% anticipating a 0.25% Fed rate cut at Wednesday's meeting.
This is the key event of the coming week—liquidity, risk appetite, and investor positions will depend on the regulator's decision.‼️
This is the key event of the coming week—liquidity, risk appetite, and investor positions will depend on the regulator's decision.‼️
Capital is flowing into #BTC and #ETH.
🪙Bitcoin has recovered to around $90,000 after $2 billion in liquidations last week, and the total crypto market capitalization has risen to approximately $3.25 trillion.
Volatility remains high, as investors choose calmer, more profitable strategies without significant market risk, instead of aggressively betting on altcoins, awaiting signals from the Fed and the macroeconomy.👀
🪙Bitcoin has recovered to around $90,000 after $2 billion in liquidations last week, and the total crypto market capitalization has risen to approximately $3.25 trillion.
Volatility remains high, as investors choose calmer, more profitable strategies without significant market risk, instead of aggressively betting on altcoins, awaiting signals from the Fed and the macroeconomy.👀
FEDERAL OFFICIALS CONFIRM RATE OUTLOOK, SIGNALING SMALL CUTS AHEAD
A few numbers to add to the podcast above:
Federal officials left their median forecasts for the federal funds rate unchanged: 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for 2027 and 2028, with a long-term estimate of 3.0%. The forecasts imply a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, though opinions on the path forward vary widely. Policymakers expect unemployment to reach 4.4% in 2026, PCE inflation to slow to 2.4%, and GDP growth to 2.3%.
Get ready for Powell to say that the contraction cycle hasn't begun and the Fed is forecasting a difficult economic reality in which they can only afford a 0.25% contraction PER YEAR. This will be the tone for all three sessions while he's in office, and Trump doesn't have an ideological majority at the Fed.
UPDATE: The crowd isn't reading any of this; they'll hear it all from Powell, and I think they'll be very upset. The short-selling idea is still relevant.
A few numbers to add to the podcast above:
Federal officials left their median forecasts for the federal funds rate unchanged: 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for 2027 and 2028, with a long-term estimate of 3.0%. The forecasts imply a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, though opinions on the path forward vary widely. Policymakers expect unemployment to reach 4.4% in 2026, PCE inflation to slow to 2.4%, and GDP growth to 2.3%.
Get ready for Powell to say that the contraction cycle hasn't begun and the Fed is forecasting a difficult economic reality in which they can only afford a 0.25% contraction PER YEAR. This will be the tone for all three sessions while he's in office, and Trump doesn't have an ideological majority at the Fed.
UPDATE: The crowd isn't reading any of this; they'll hear it all from Powell, and I think they'll be very upset. The short-selling idea is still relevant.
Oh, wow. Last night, important papers came out of the US Congress, which quietly lobbied Atkins and company to approve the storage of pension assets in crypto.
Do you know who's been feasting on the AI sector and that American retirees have been the main investors in the S&P 500 and gold in recent years?
Have you seen this news? Neither have I. But everyone's already in the red.
Do you know who's been feasting on the AI sector and that American retirees have been the main investors in the S&P 500 and gold in recent years?
Have you seen this news? Neither have I. But everyone's already in the red.
🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan is on the home stretch
A 25 bp interest rate hike is expected this Friday.
The probability is already 98%.
Some of the market believes this decision is largely already priced in. But there's another side to the story: a number of economists warn that Japan's tightening could trigger pressure on risk assets (as has happened previously) and push BTC all the way to $63,000.
Japan's interest rate: noise or a real market trigger? 💰
A 25 bp interest rate hike is expected this Friday.
The probability is already 98%.
Some of the market believes this decision is largely already priced in. But there's another side to the story: a number of economists warn that Japan's tightening could trigger pressure on risk assets (as has happened previously) and push BTC all the way to $63,000.
Japan's interest rate: noise or a real market trigger? 💰
TUCKER CARLSON, CITING AN UNINDITED MEMBER OF CONGRESS, SAID THAT AMERICAN LAWS WERE INFORMED YESTERDAY ABOUT AN IMMINENT WAR WITH VENEZUELA, WHICH HE SAID WILL BE ANNOUNCED THIS NIGHT (5:00 AM MSK THURSDAY) DURING TRUMP'S SCHEDULED SPEECH IN THE OVAL OFFICE AT 9:00 PM WASHINGTON TIME.
🛑Tucker Carlson's Alarming Statement
The popular TV host, citing an unnamed member of Congress, claimed that US lawmakers allegedly received information about an imminent war with Venezuela.
According to him, the announcement could be made during Trump's scheduled speech in the Oval Office at 4:00 AM (UTC+2).
If the information is confirmed, markets could fall even further.
Here are the reasons for today's rally 😡
The popular TV host, citing an unnamed member of Congress, claimed that US lawmakers allegedly received information about an imminent war with Venezuela.
According to him, the announcement could be made during Trump's scheduled speech in the Oval Office at 4:00 AM (UTC+2).
If the information is confirmed, markets could fall even further.
Here are the reasons for today's rally 😡
Venezuela deployed naval vessels to protect tankers from the US Navy, according to The New York Times.
The Bank of Japan is raising its rate to 0.75%.
I'm watching to see how the market reacts. By the end of the Asian session, maybe there'll be a squeeze in the opposite direction.
I'm watching to see how the market reacts. By the end of the Asian session, maybe there'll be a squeeze in the opposite direction.
💼 The Bank of Russia presented a concept for regulating cryptocurrency circulation in the Russian Federation:
— The purchase and sale of digital currencies and stablecoins is permitted, but their use as a means of payment within the country is prohibited;
— The regulator continues to view cryptocurrencies as a high-risk instrument;
— Qualified investors will be able to purchase any cryptocurrency, with the exception of anonymous ones;
— Non-qualified investors will be able to invest only in the most liquid cryptoassets, the list and requirements for which will be established by law;
— Cryptocurrency transactions are permitted through exchanges, brokers, and management companies;
— An annual limit on cryptocurrency purchases for non-qualified investors has been established: up to 300,000 rubles when working through intermediaries;
— The circulation of digital financial assets and other Russian digital rights will be permitted on public blockchain networks;
— The legislative framework for regulating the crypto market is planned to be established by July 1, 2026;
— Russian residents will be able to purchase cryptocurrency abroad and transfer previously acquired assets abroad using Russian intermediaries.
We're in trouble, gentlemen. In a year, we'll be looking back on the good times—our free time 🖐
— The purchase and sale of digital currencies and stablecoins is permitted, but their use as a means of payment within the country is prohibited;
— The regulator continues to view cryptocurrencies as a high-risk instrument;
— Qualified investors will be able to purchase any cryptocurrency, with the exception of anonymous ones;
— Non-qualified investors will be able to invest only in the most liquid cryptoassets, the list and requirements for which will be established by law;
— Cryptocurrency transactions are permitted through exchanges, brokers, and management companies;
— An annual limit on cryptocurrency purchases for non-qualified investors has been established: up to 300,000 rubles when working through intermediaries;
— The circulation of digital financial assets and other Russian digital rights will be permitted on public blockchain networks;
— The legislative framework for regulating the crypto market is planned to be established by July 1, 2026;
— Russian residents will be able to purchase cryptocurrency abroad and transfer previously acquired assets abroad using Russian intermediaries.
We're in trouble, gentlemen. In a year, we'll be looking back on the good times—our free time 🖐
💵 Liquidity speaks before price
One of the strongest on-chain signals is the growth of stablecoin capitalization (USDT, USDC). It shows whether new liquidity is entering the market.
Currently:
• Stablecoins are growing by approximately +42% YoY
• New supply - approximately $79 billion
This is not a bearish signal or a liquidity squeeze.
It's important to understand: Liquidity comes first, and the price reacts later. This is not a buy signal, but rather a general market backdrop. 😎
One of the strongest on-chain signals is the growth of stablecoin capitalization (USDT, USDC). It shows whether new liquidity is entering the market.
Currently:
• Stablecoins are growing by approximately +42% YoY
• New supply - approximately $79 billion
This is not a bearish signal or a liquidity squeeze.
It's important to understand: Liquidity comes first, and the price reacts later. This is not a buy signal, but rather a general market backdrop. 😎
Comrades, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released today at 10:00 PM.
The minutes will focus on:
- possible timing of a rate cut
- the state of liquidity
- hints of future cash injections
I don't expect any major surprises. The likelihood that nothing will change at the next Fed meeting is currently estimated at ~84%.
However, it's always best to minimize risks before the publication of such data. 👍
The minutes will focus on:
- possible timing of a rate cut
- the state of liquidity
- hints of future cash injections
I don't expect any major surprises. The likelihood that nothing will change at the next Fed meeting is currently estimated at ~84%.
However, it's always best to minimize risks before the publication of such data. 👍
Happy New Year, friends! For some, it's already here, while others are just getting ready for the holiday 🎉
It doesn't matter—we're all in the same boat and trying to achieve our goals together!
We may have our own challenges, but the most important thing is that we remain human and live these days as a close-knit community, which I've built over several years.
I wish you the best of health (the most important thing these days). And more enthusiasm, guys! We always have support and advice from experienced people here. You can always contact us in the chat 🤝
I send you all a big hug and wish you a green PNL. The whole next year, this market, will be ours no matter what!
Happy New Year, my dears! While we're celebrating, take a break from the charts and I'm waiting for you all tomorrow so I can start crushing the market right away, after a short break.
It doesn't matter—we're all in the same boat and trying to achieve our goals together!
We may have our own challenges, but the most important thing is that we remain human and live these days as a close-knit community, which I've built over several years.
I wish you the best of health (the most important thing these days). And more enthusiasm, guys! We always have support and advice from experienced people here. You can always contact us in the chat 🤝
I send you all a big hug and wish you a green PNL. The whole next year, this market, will be ours no matter what!
Happy New Year, my dears! While we're celebrating, take a break from the charts and I'm waiting for you all tomorrow so I can start crushing the market right away, after a short break.
💼 US - Venezuela
Explosions are heard in Caracas, airstrikes and air defense activity against military facilities are being recorded. The US is attacking military infrastructure, with helicopters and special forces operations reported. Airspace is closed, and mobilization has been declared!
Venezuelan authorities have confirmed the attack and declared a state of emergency. Colombia is demanding an urgent meeting of the UN and the OAS.
The action has picked up, but the charts are stagnant. The US market opens on Tuesday 👀
Explosions are heard in Caracas, airstrikes and air defense activity against military facilities are being recorded. The US is attacking military infrastructure, with helicopters and special forces operations reported. Airspace is closed, and mobilization has been declared!
Venezuelan authorities have confirmed the attack and declared a state of emergency. Colombia is demanding an urgent meeting of the UN and the OAS.
The action has picked up, but the charts are stagnant. The US market opens on Tuesday 👀
The US will rule Venezuela - Trump 💼
Trump is a leader, no doubt about it. He racketeered the country in a single day. I feel especially sorry for the civilians – the media is already reporting attacks. Let this not turn into a disaster.
Trump is a leader, no doubt about it. He racketeered the country in a single day. I feel especially sorry for the civilians – the media is already reporting attacks. Let this not turn into a disaster.
🇯🇵🇰🇵 Pivnichny Korea launched, most likely, a ballistic missile - Japanese Ministry of Security