🔴Drawing Red Lines🔴

Zimbabwe has just imposed an immediate ban on exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates — Why now?

🌐 On Wednesday, the Zimbabwean mines ministry suddenly announced an immediate ban on exports of raw ores and lithium concentrates, citing “malpractices” and export leakages.

⏩Generally speaking, this decision came out of the blue — up to the moment of its announcement by the minister of mines, the official policy was less ambitious: to halt lithium concentrates exports by 2027. No "raw ores" and no "immediately", which is why the current ban was not expected, the processing facilities had no chance to be prepared.

🔸In the official communiqué the mines ministry explicitly sets forth 2 main requirements for corporations willing to resume exports: 1) to get rid of traders, agents and middlemen when selling and exporting minerals; 2) to report on progress in the field of mineral beneficiation.

🔸So, the new ban seems more like a bargaining position, and not a new permanent policy course. The Zim government has long demanded local processing, and in 2025 it even set the aforementioned 2027 deadline for lithium concentrates — however, only one major lithium plant has been built since then.

🔸Besides obscure behind the scenes considerations that can never be ruled out, only the desire to demonstrate the seriousness of the government's demands seems to be a sound explanation of the sudden ban. Probably, as soon as the corporations set out clear timelines for processing build-up, the exports will be resumed.

However, until then the situation also risks triggering massive layoffs — particularly if the government won't show flexibility toward minor companies that cannot afford building a plant of their own. This factor may well be exploited by corporations unwilling to obey the government's demands.

✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

Iran's Role in the Oil World: What Will Happen to Gasoline Prices Worldwide After the Strikes

❗️ Earlier today US President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Iran, escalating the standoff into an all-out military conflict, after he failed nuclear talks. Given Iran's major role in oil production, there's even more to it than violation of international law and flouting of someone else's sovereignty, to which everyone is accustomed now. So, let's get it sorted out.

1️⃣ Iran's economy is about oil and gas. Under strict sanctions, Iran still pumps about 3.3 million barrels a day — two times twice as much as Nigeria — which is equal to 3-4% of global oil supplies. It exports 90% of its crude via Kharg Island, for shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz to China.

2️⃣ The Strait of Hormuz itself is another important factor. It handles about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and some 20% of the trade in oil. Besides, it is the only sea route for the Gulf monarchies' exports.

The shallow depth of the waterway makes ships vulnerable to mines, while the proximity of the strait to the Iranian land leaves vessels open to attack from shore-based missiles or interception by patrol boats and helicopters.

The Iranian government has threatened during previous periods of geopolitical tension to block the strait — however, it has never followed through on its threats yet.

⁉️ The repercussions of today's strikes depend on the severity and duration of the new round of conflict. If the escalation remains limited, leaving shipping and exports intact, oil would likely spike briefly and then stabilize

If any of the sides set about consistently targeting oil infrastructure, the increase in oil prices will be serious and long-lasting. One of Goldman Sachs's leading analysts predicted last week that it would lead to an $8 per barrel price increase.

➡️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

Good morning!

Everyone shares photos of occasional drone strikes on Dubai hotels — and I have compiled something more economically devastating: a selection of Iran's strikes on the oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

🔴 The 1st photo and video: the consequences of the strike on the Saudi Ras Tanura refinery.

The 2nd photo shows a fire on a tanker sailing through the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of Iran's ban. In general, traffic has not stopped there and tankers generally ignore this ban.

For some reason Iran is holding back — since the infrastructure is defenseless, they could possibly knock out half of all oil refining in Saudi Arabia at once, as they already did in 2019.

💡 Anytime you've ideas to suggest, interesting topics to share, or feel that some facts are unfairly overlooked — don’t hesitate to drop a comment here or DM the channel.

✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow