Iran's Role in the Oil World: What Will Happen to Gasoline Prices Worldwide After the Strikes

❗️ Earlier today US President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Iran, escalating the standoff into an all-out military conflict, after he failed nuclear talks. Given Iran's major role in oil production, there's even more to it than violation of international law and flouting of someone else's sovereignty, to which everyone is accustomed now. So, let's get it sorted out.

1️⃣ Iran's economy is about oil and gas. Under strict sanctions, Iran still pumps about 3.3 million barrels a day — two times twice as much as Nigeria — which is equal to 3-4% of global oil supplies. It exports 90% of its crude via Kharg Island, for shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz to China.

2️⃣ The Strait of Hormuz itself is another important factor. It handles about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and some 20% of the trade in oil. Besides, it is the only sea route for the Gulf monarchies' exports.

The shallow depth of the waterway makes ships vulnerable to mines, while the proximity of the strait to the Iranian land leaves vessels open to attack from shore-based missiles or interception by patrol boats and helicopters.

The Iranian government has threatened during previous periods of geopolitical tension to block the strait — however, it has never followed through on its threats yet.

⁉️ The repercussions of today's strikes depend on the severity and duration of the new round of conflict. If the escalation remains limited, leaving shipping and exports intact, oil would likely spike briefly and then stabilize

If any of the sides set about consistently targeting oil infrastructure, the increase in oil prices will be serious and long-lasting. One of Goldman Sachs's leading analysts predicted last week that it would lead to an $8 per barrel price increase.

➡️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

Good morning!

Everyone shares photos of occasional drone strikes on Dubai hotels — and I have compiled something more economically devastating: a selection of Iran's strikes on the oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

🔴 The 1st photo and video: the consequences of the strike on the Saudi Ras Tanura refinery.

The 2nd photo shows a fire on a tanker sailing through the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of Iran's ban. In general, traffic has not stopped there and tankers generally ignore this ban.

For some reason Iran is holding back — since the infrastructure is defenseless, they could possibly knock out half of all oil refining in Saudi Arabia at once, as they already did in 2019.

💡 Anytime you've ideas to suggest, interesting topics to share, or feel that some facts are unfairly overlooked — don’t hesitate to drop a comment here or DM the channel.

✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

No One Cares How Many People Died?

Yet another landslide in eastern DRC fuels information warfare

🌐Another major landslide at DR Congo’s Rubaya coltan mine on Tuesday results in an undefined death toll, with Kinshasa and M23 pointing at strikingly different numbers of victims.

⏩ The landslide follows a similar tragedy on February 28, which allegedly killed some 200 miners.

🔸 From the beginning, both tragedies were about the Kinshasa-M23 tug-of-war, and to lesser extent about the victims. The Congo mines ministry claimed the death toll this time also amounted to 200 people, including 70 children — while AFC/M23 said “only 5-6” people died.

🔸 While the Rubaya mine is currently under control of AFC/M23, in early February it was mentioned on the list of projects Kinshasa offered to the US under the Strategic Partnership Framework.

The Tuesday landslide is now turning into an excellent reason for Kinshasa and Washington to increase pressure on the rebels and Rwanda to squeeze the asset under the pretext of greater safety for workers — and having turned into a politically sensitive propaganda tool, people's deaths are unlikely to be ever investigated.

#News

✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow