All Guts, No Brains 💎

Botswana intends to buy a diamond giant despite having no money and IMF alarms

🌐 Botswana's president Duma Boko reaffirmed the intention to buy the dying diamond major De Beers. In early December, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended that Botswana abandon the purchase in the face of budget deficits and the dubious future of natural diamonds.

🏷 De Beers is a once-great diamond company that held a global monopoly over the diamond trade in the mid-20th century. De Beers’ main trump cards were its control over diamond trading networks and marketing — its slogan “A Diamond is Forever” became one of the most famous slogans in the world.

🔴 Since the early 21th century, the company has been in crisis due to the loss of its trading monopoly and the rise of lab-grown diamonds. Today the current owner, Anglo American Plc, wants to sell its 85% stake, while Botswana has long declared its desire to acquire the majority share.

The price tag is $4.1 billion.

🇧🇼 For once, the IMF offered good advice — but Botswana’s Duma Boko apparently didn’t need it. Despite shrinking diamond revenues and falling demand, the president believes he can make both diamonds and Botswana great again through better marketing.

“Diamonds are not selling due to the process being used, and we have to overhaul it,” he said.

⏩ Boko may well portray the potential acquisition as restoration of Botswana's control over its diamonds, but in reality the state is simply going to waste an amount equivalent to 73% of its annual revenue (which was $5.6 billion in 2024) to buy a hopeless asset.

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Delaying the Solution

🌐 Namibia has managed to do what Botswana should also have done: break its dependence on diamond exports. But it may not be what it seems.

🥇 For the 1st time in the country’s history, revenues from gold and uranium exports have matched and exceeded revenues from diamonds. While this may look like a successful case of diversification, in reality Namibia is so far just swapping one dependency for another.

⚙️ In fact, the exit from diamond dependence happened almost automatically. Diamond prices have been weak for several years, while gold prices have risen by 56% since the start of the year alone. A 22% increase in uranium production also played a role.

💵 For a long time, diamonds accounted for up to 30% of Namibia's total export earnings. Seeking to reduce its exposure to diamond prices, the government tried to attract foreign companies into gold, other metals, and oil.

⏩ While the bet on gold has paid off and allowed Namibia’s economy to endure the diamond downturn, it would be naive to assume that gold prices will rise forever. Real diversification means developing manufacturing and services, not exporting just another raw material.

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Oil Tycoon Sacked Two Officials in Nigeria 🇳🇬

⚡️ Nigerian President Tinubu unexpectedly dismissed the heads of two key oil and fuel regulators just 2 days after one of them was publicly accused of corruption by oil mogul Aliko Dangote.

❓ What's the chance of this being a genuine fight against corruption, or does the richest man in Africa now decide who holds public office in Nigeria?

➡️Over these days Nigerians probably saw a typical political performance played by the oil tycoon and the country's president. To strengthen the position of his Dangote Refinery, the mogul needed to get rid of fuel inflows from abroad. This in turn required either making imports unprofitable, or creating legal obstacles for importers.

➡️The mogul did have Nigeria's leader on his side. In October the government had already planned to introduce a 15% duty on imported fuel. However, once this plan was leaked, it triggered public fears of rising fuel prices, so the introduction was delayed until 2026.

➡️The other option was to obstruct imports through administrative barriers. However, this ran into resistance from the now dismissed heads of the regulators, especially Nigeria's downstream regulator chief Farouk Ahmed, responsible for issuing import licenses, who, either out of conviction or links to fuel marketers, defended fuel imports into the country.

➡️Because the petroleum prices will inevitably rise as a result, for the president the decision to replace them had to be wrapped up in a positive narrative, namely the fight against corruption. That way, fewer people would accuse him of indulging the oil mogul + he may avoid losing political capital because of rising prices.

➡️To fast-track the process, the anti-corruption narrative had to originate from some reputable source other than official investigation — the role which Dangote eventually assumed himself.

🔽 So, Nigeria is now on the track towards lower dependency on imports at the cost of utmost reliance on Dangote and his fuel business. The only remaining question is what Nigeria's president wants to get out of it. Maybe the tycoon's endorsement in the 2027 elections?

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Backed Down 🇿🇼

Zimbabwe has abandoned what was for once a good idea

💸 Zimbabwe will not raise gold royalties to 10%, according to the approved 2026 budget plan. The proposal, put forward in late November, was reportedly dropped due to pressure from mining industry lobbyists.

📉 There is, of course, no real economic logic in refusing to raise the tax. Half of the continent is currently increasing taxes on gold, and in some cases companies that object even lose their assets, as in Mali — and yet "investors" are not fleeing.

💬 Here, by contrast, someone as they say grumbled, and the country gave up higher revenues from its main source of export earnings at a time when gold prices are reaching historic highs.

⏩ Unfortunately, high gold prices are not eternal, and introducing a higher tax in a year or two will already be too late.

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Soon Enough for an Entire Planet
[ Minerals In Numbers ]

🌡Every year, more than 2,000 tonnes of mercury are released into the atmosphere, soil, and water from artisanal gold mining. In Sub-Saharan Africa, artisanal mining is, in fact, the single largest source of mercury pollution.

➡️The popularity of mercury among artisanal miners originates from a radical reduction in costs. To start mining using mercury requires minimal upfront investment, typically around $10–50 per site, compared with mercury-free alternatives that demand $2,000–15,000 in basic equipment costs.

➡️ How much is 2,000 tonnes? Less than 1 gram is enough to cause mercury poisoning in a human. Another comparison: if we took all that mercury and spread it evenly in a layer just 2–3 atoms thick, it would be enough to cover the entire area of Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 (about 275,000 km2).

🔽 The solution of this problem is not on the surface though. As long as there is poverty and gold is considered a precious commodity, mercury will persist. On the other hand, everyone can at least protect themselves and ensure that mercury in their environment and food does not exceed safe limits.

#MineralsInNumbers

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Chad Wants to Be More Versatile 🇹🇩

The government of Chad wants more items on its list of potential oil-sector partners

🌐 On Wednesday, the Minister of Petroleum, Mines and Geology of Chad, Ndolenodji Alex Naimbaye, went to Algeria to propose cooperation in the oil sector.

🛢 Potential Algerian involvement in Chad’s oil sector would be implemented through the Algerian national company Sonatrach, Africa’s largest oil company. As regards the other end of the fuel supply chain, the visit also included discussions about possible fuel supplies from Algeria to Chad.

⏩ Chad’s leadership has effectively cornered itself into a situation where the only major company in the entire oil sector is Chinese CNPC. Then the government found itself amid excessive dependence on the sole oil producer and lower revenues — so, expanding the zoo of oil partners has become today's most urgent task.

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Central African Scam

🇨🇭 Activists from the Swiss Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime have published a report on how the CAR government is using cryptocurrencies for non-transparent deals with the country’s natural resources.

😎 The main conclusion suggested by CAR’s crypto experience is that the government appears to have grasped the essence of online scamming and is actively freeing naive foreigners from their money.

🪤 Since 2022, CAR has launched two cryptocurrencies: Sango Coin and $CAR. The former was initially supposed to be backed by plots of land for agricultural use — a straightforward sale of resources! However, by the time the entire initiative was shut down, none of the “crypto investors” had apparently ever seen any actual land rights.

💻 $CAR, launched in early 2025, was initially a meme token and did not imply access to any assets. Although the government later tried to claim that holders of $CAR could also register their names in the land cadastre of CAR, this likewise ended in nothing.

📈 In the end, in October the president promised to tokenize mineral resources directly — but something suggests that the miner’s badge will once again become void as soon as the government earns enough from crypto transaction fees.

🤷‍♂️ As for the lack of transparency in such affairs — a point repeatedly emphasized in the report — in CAR there are no transparent resource deals to begin with, so cryptocurrency is hardly required for that.

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Came Looking for Lithium and Found Gold

Debates over the lithium deal gave Ghana a progressive royalty scale on gold (but didn't give lithium)

🌐 Ghana’s Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources has submitted to parliament an initiative to introduce a progressive royalty scale linked to mineral prices. Royalties ranging from 5% to 12% would apply to gold (Ghana’s main export) as well as lithium and other minerals.

⚖️ Since mid-November, Ghana’s parliament has been debating the terms of a lithium mining deal with Atlantic Lithium. This deal is remarkable in two ways. First, it has been stuck in parliament since 2023, as the government and the opposition have been weaponizing the issue of lithium royalties to score political points.

📈 Second, the debate around this deal may now bring Ghana something more valuable than lithium itself: a progressive royalty scale for all minerals.

💰 Although the new rules have yet to be approved, they represent a significant step forward for Ghana. For a long time, the country made do with a flat 5% royalty on all major resources, while its regional neighbors introduced either sliding royalties or additional levies.

⏩ If adopted, Ghana could substantially boost revenues, though more likely from gold than from lithium mining, whose future remains unclear.

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Enough Work? 🏗

In Guinea, the full launch of a 600-kilometer railway is approaching — accompanied by mass layoffs

🌐 The completion of the core infrastructure for Guinea’s largest iron ore project, Simandou, risks turning into the dismissal of thousands, if not tens of thousands, of workers involved in the construction of the 600-kilometer railway and its satellite facilities.

🪖 Bringing the megaproject to life required the labor of around 60,000 people, but only about 15,000 of them will be directly employed in iron ore mining. The remaining 40,000-plus are employees of contractor companies whose services are no longer needed once construction is finished.

⏩ For the country’s labor market, this is a major challenge, especially given that a significant share of the workers facing layoffs is concentrated in the underdeveloped southeast of the country.

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⚡️ Ten people died in the collapses of two gold mines in southeastern Senegal between December 12 and 17.

Reports say that 9 of the deceased were Malian nationals and 1 was a citizen of Burkina Faso.

The victims used to undertake nighttime intrusions into mines near the Senegal-Mali border which were officially sealed or where gold mining was prohibited.

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Paris Prosecutor's Office vs. Niger

☢️ Apparently having established perfect order at home, the Paris prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation into the alleged sale of uranium from the Arlit mine, nationalized by Niger from the French company Orano in June.

⚖️ The Paris Prosecutor's Office has earned its "good reputation" through its high-quality public service, including cases against Macron’s political rival Marine Le Pen and Telegram founder Pavel Durov. Now it has undertaken to apply its vast and profound expertise in the deserts of northern Niger.

⚠️ Remarkably, media reports that first made this investigation public on December 19 described it as a case of “robbery by an organized group with a view to serve the interests of a foreign power,” even though the official opening date of the case is August 18, when no uranium or anything else was being sold or moved from Arlit at all.

🔮 Not only were the French investigators apparently able to foresee in a crystal ball the very act of transportation — but they also seem to already know the result of the “investigation”, with Russia likely to be accused of stealing French uranium as part of the “organized group.”

⏩ Since there is no real way for Paris even to find out what exactly (uranium itself or some nuclear waste) Niger is transporting from the Arlit mine, the probe looks more like a performance, designed to show the French public that the government is not sitting idly by and is trying to defend the French interests.

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Extortion or Asset Seizure?

⚡️ Twelve miners were killed and three others abducted in Nigeria’s Plateau State during an attack by unidentified armed men on Tuesday, December 16.

⏩ Why the attackers felt the need to kill the miners remains unclear. As a rule, criminal groups prefer to impose “taxes” on artisanal miners or demand a cut from the extracted ore as a levy. Killing such a source of income is, on the contrary, unprofitable.

⏩ The likely explanation is either that the miners refused to pay or that the initial objective was to drive them off the deposit altogether.

⏩ Artisanal miners are frequently targeted in such attacks. In the past, these incidents were mostly typical for the mineral-rich but less developed North of the country. Now, similar attacks are increasingly being reported closer to Nigeria’s central regions.

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South Africa Is a Unique Country
[ Policy Review ]

🇿🇦 What sets South Africa apart from the rest of Africa?

🚩 South Africa is unique not only because there is only one South Africa in the world. There is a second factor as well. Like many African countries, South Africa today mainly exports raw minerals abroad — but for SA this was not always the case.

⚙️ Until the 2010s, South Africa had its own strong mineral processing industry, especially in metals. With large metal deposits, the country built its own plants and exported not raw materials but refined metal products.

📉 However, from the 2010s onward, South Africa has ironically begun to slide back toward the all-African norm, as deindustrialization set in. The chart shows how, starting in 2009, exports of metal ores steadily caught up with exports of refined metals, and from 2017 onward, raw material exports permanently exceeded exports of processed products.

This situation resulted from several factors.

⏩ First, there was rapid expansion of processing capacity in China and other Asian countries with cheaper labor than in South Africa. South Africa found itself in the so-called “middle-income trap,” where further investment is constrained by relatively high wage levels.

⏩ Second, currency. In the 2010s, the rand depreciated several times, making exports more profitable than domestic processing. Exports made more rand per tonne of ore, while wages and local expenses remained the same.

⏩ Finally, electricity issues. Electricity is a key input for metallurgy. In the 2010s, the state-owned utility Eskom repeatedly raised tariffs at double-digit rates following years of lack of investment in new generation capacity in the 2000s.

🔽 As a result, SA now finds itself in a paradoxical situation. A country that 20 years ago would not lament exploitation and resource extraction is now turning into a kind of raw material appendage for China’s processing industry.

#PolicyReview

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Pocket Money for Australians 🇦🇺

🦘 Australia’s Marvel Gold is getting rid of the Yanfolila gold project in southern Mali, selling it to a local company Askiya Mineral Resources for $1.94 million. Despite its favorable location — close to major routes leading into Guinea — the asset is effectively being sold for next to nothing.

⏩ The reasons are stricter regulations and the country’s ongoing instability. Although Yanfolila lies almost 100 kilometers from the main areas of activity of JNIM, the Australians have probably overestimated the risks, especially given the rather lackluster pace of production.

⏩ Against the backdrop of such news, one may think that Mali is seeing some kind of domestic industry emergence and departure of foreign investors — however, past experience clearly shows that the main players have been, and remain, foreign companies.

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Old Story in the New Year

Mali’s economy will grow faster, but on obsolete “fuel”

📈 The IMF has published its forecast for Mali’s GDP growth in 2026: 5.5%, up from 4.1% in 2025.

⚙️ The main drivers of future growth are higher gold production combined with an improvement in security.

🥇 It is unclear how the IMF knows that the security situation will improve, but when it comes to higher gold output, the Fund is clearly referring to the resumption of operations at the country’s largest gold mine, Loulo-Gounkoto.

🔽 While 5.5% is a very strong figure, roughly twice the global average, relying on gold as the main source of this growth is a problem. As long as it is not replaced by industry, knowledge, and services, the country’s development remains dependent on gold prices, the size of remaining deposits, and the whims of gold producers.

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ℹ️Troubles with the Law ℹ️

A year of persuading everyone that the law must be obeyed

✔️ Côte d’Ivoire has finally dealt with all gold producers who had refused to pay the increased 8% gold mining royalty.

📅 The law raising the levy from 6% to 8% was adopted back in January, but many producers refused to comply, citing the terms of their contracts allegedly not allowing for an increase in royalties.

⏩ Once again, it turned out that when the state and private companies lock horns, the former always has more patience and resources than the latter — and "investors" do not run away anywhere.

❓ A fine example, isn’t it, Zimbabwe?

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🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: Marange Blood Diamonds
[Cost of Greed]

🌟 In June 2006, one of the most significant diamond discoveries of recent times was made in the rural Marange area of eastern Zimbabwe, offering its economy a unique development chance.

🌟 By 2012, Zimbabwe had become the world’s 4th-largest diamond producer, while Marange had become synonymous with blood diamonds and human rights abuses, drawing international attention, leading to sanctions against Zimbabwe and involvement of the global diamond watchdog.

🌟 At the heart of the tragedy was the government’s 2008 decision to expel individual miners from the deposit, even though in a burst of populism after the discovery it had initially declared the field open to everyone.

✈️ Once the government itself wanted to capture diamond profits, the military was sent to the site. In helicopters. With machine guns. To drive out artisanal miners.

🔥 Unsurprisingly, this decision was a straight route to tragedy. During the three-week Operation "No Return," from October 27 to November 16, at least 200 people were killed, while the military established near-direct control over the deposit.

💵 The troops deployed to Marange set up labor camps at the site. Their control lasted until November 2009, when the government began issuing mining licenses. Of the 6 main companies that received them, only one was not directly owned by the government itself.

🌟 The massacre and forced labor drew the attention of the international community. In 2008-2011, the United States and the European Union imposed sanctions on companies operating there, including the state-run Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation. In 2009, members of the Kimberley Process banned the sale of diamonds from Marange.

🌟 Although human rights abuses continued after 2011, international concern soon faded, and over time both the sanctions and the ban on diamond sales were lifted.

🔽 This allowed the state-owned companies to extract diamond profits and use them for off-budget financing of the army and secret services — but that is a topic for a separate post.

#CostOfGreed

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Just Like Adults

🚩 Guinea is planning to hold its first mining conference. The decision was prompted by the launch of the large Simandou iron project in the southeast of the country.

🛒 Unlike many conferences, whose organizers overtly seek to sale their countries’ resources, the event in Guinea will be more about showmanship and Guinea’s new status as an iron exporter. Even the name of the upcoming gathering — the Simandou Mining Summit — speaks for itself.

🇿🇦The main conference of this kind — Mining Indaba — is held annually in South Africa, but many countries enjoy organizing their own small mineral asset sales and not only countries — even Somaliland has its own mining conference.

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The Glass Is Half Full 🥛

Nigeria recovers a share of its oil

🌐 An association of Nigerian oil producers claims that more than half of Nigeria’s crude oil is now produced by indigenous companies.

⏩ Although no specific sources are provided for the estimates, the transfer of part of the oil sector into the hands of local producers is a well-known recent trend in the country.

🔸 In general, major foreign firms began selling their Nigerian assets around 2010, but in 2024–2025 the process intensified. The main pretext was oil theft and pipeline vandalism. Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies all said farewell to some of their assets.

🔸 There was, however, a more important factor behind their exodus: as if by surprise, many of the departing companies had with unpaid, multimillion-dollar obligations to local communities for endless oil spills and environmental damage, which even attracted the attention of the UN.

⏩ So alongside the positive trend, there is another side: the assets are extremely old, requiring modernization, while new owners just cannot afford to clean up the environmental damage left behind by the majors.

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