🇨🇩The DRC Reclaims Its $7 Billion

🌏 The new Minister of Mining, Louis Watum, has announced that the country plans to increase its gold production, including by developing mines in the eastern part of the country, which is still in conflict with the M23.

‼️ The government says the DRC is currently losing $7 billion — 60 tons of gold annually — due to illegal and unregulated mining and smuggling of gold through Uganda and Rwanda to the United Arab Emirates.

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States around the world are trying to jump on the train of unusually high gold prices. Now, DRC is joining Mali and Ghana, which we wrote about earlier. The country's government is counting on signing an agreement with Rwanda in October and subsequent cooperation with major companies like Barrick to increase legal gold production.

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📈 Gold's Godlen Years

We've already mentioned several times the unprecedented heights of gold prices (GP) in recent years, but we've never posed the question of why gold is ever more expensive.

❓ Since March 2019, the GP per troy ounce has increased by about 280% and currently reaches $3,600 (equivalent to, for example, 76.6 minimum wages in Nigeria). Very good for a measly 33 grams of shiny metal.

Basically, there are 3 reasons that explain the endless rise in GP.:
👉 Geopolitical crises, against which gold seems to be the last island of stability
👉 The low interest rate of the US Federal Reserve, with people around the world choosing to invest in gold instead of dollars
👉 No one has figured out how to grow gold in laboratories (unlike diamonds 😁)

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It is expected that the GP won't stop and will continue to rise up to $4,000 per ounce and above, unless one of the listed factors disappears.

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Sorry, But Can't Stop Thinking of Botswana

🤝 Recently we've mentioned that the country is going to strike a deal with major world diamond miner De Beers so that state's stake in the company reaches at least 50%, which certainly means they want a controlling share.

At first it seemed cool and OK, but then I saw this Bloomberg's interview with pres. Duma Boko of Botswana and thought: actually...why would they do this?

📉 The crisis on the diamond market caused a downturn in Botswana's economy which is now 5% smaller than a year ago and country's deficit budget is itself comparable in full size with the cost of De Beers.

“We want effective control of the industry, we want our voice to be heard…”

🤔 Doen't look like a good deal, especially when in August the same pres. Duma Boko had to announce a public health emergency due to the lack of finances to supply medical stores. 👇

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…So What For?

❗️ Taking into account that such a deal would require Botswana to borrow some (my own assessment) $1.7 billion, it brings along a serious risk for the country’s economy.

The considerations behind it may be:
👉 That diamond prices will soon bounce back and the De Beers asset, which is so to say “cheap” now, is a good investment
👉 That by controlling diamonds production Botswana will be able to effectively affect and make grow world prices (if so why not impose exports control???)

Both are very questionable, mainly because there are still lab-grown diamonds that limit any price growth.

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🤩 How To Polish The Kimberley? [3/3]

Long-overdue finale of our series on the Kimberley process.

As I've said the international community have long noticed that the Kimberley works well mostly on paper.

To improve this, the participants of the mechanism went to great lengths:
👉 They reiterated that the process works well and comprises 99% of world trade in diamonds
👉 They voiced concerns and spoke of the need of reform
👉 In 2022 they finally agreed to create an Ad-hoc Committee for Review and Reforms, charged of devising a new, broader definition of "blood diamonds"

🎉 Finally, in May 2025 the Kimberley was reported to be about to adopt a revised definition (though suggested by the African Diamond Producers Association, rather than the Ad-hoc Committee).

Presumably, it will incorporate some notice of diamond-financed state-driven violence and not only rebel groups. How this will work out we'll see at the Kimberley's November 2025 Plenary session.

Personal opinion: the real change will come only when Kimberley process will be able to enforce its provisions, not with a decorative new definition.

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🇳🇬 What's Up With Nigeria's Oil Refinery?

🌏 Yestarday Nigeria's Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) announced a nation-wide strike against the Dangote Oil Refinery starting today.

The development, that in short-term may strongly affect country's economy, is just another part of Dangote's brawl with trade unionists that started this September.

For you to understand, we've compiled a short chronicle of the dispute:
👉 5 Sept. - Dangote announced it will deploy 4000 Compressed Natural Gas trucks to destribute its products across Nigeria
👉 In responce Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) announced a strike (apparently worrying that new truck drivers will not be part of the Union) and got the support of PENGASSAN
👉 9 Sept. - NUPENG and Dangote signed a deal allegedly making NUPENG the only trade union new Dangote drivers may join
...

Next part 👇

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👉 11 Sept. - NUPENG accused Dangote of not obiding by the deal
👉 17 Sept. - National Industrial Court prohibited NUPENG to perform any industrial actions complelling non-members to join the Union
👉 25 Sept. - Dangote fired some stuff citing "sabotage" (PENGASSAN claims the refinery sacked some 800 white-collar empoyees remplacing them with 2000 Indians - not a joke)
👉 27 Sept. - PENGASSAN called on its members in Dangote to go to strike from Sunday (for those in field locations) and Monday (for those in offices)

All members working across field locations are to withdraw services effective 06:00hrs on Sunday, 28 September 2025 and commence 24-hour prayers.

Dangote is visibly trying to get rid of the noisy unionists by firing and reallocating their members away from the decision-making positions. The unions in their turn dream to have an effective leverage on the Dangote.

❓ The question is where the fuck here are the workers' rights?

P.S. If you were an oil tycoon, would you try to replace 800 of your managers with 2000 out-of-the-blue pulled Indians? 🤔

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🇲🇱 Mali Struggles With Gold

🌏 Today Reuters reported that Mali’s gold production fell by 32% year-on-year because of the dispute with Barrick.

The fact itself is not surprising, given the half-year pause in Barrick’s operation in Mali and its current interim management.

Regulatory uncertainty in Mali has weighed on investment and output. The government, like others in the region, has emphasised resource nationalism while pivoting from Western investors to courting Russian interests.

🤔 What is surprising is how crafty journalists are in relating unrelated things.

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🇳🇬 13 Dead In Zamfara Mine Collapse

🌏 The Government of Nigeria has confirmed on Sunday 13 illegal miners are found dead after a gold mine collapse in Zamfara.

Previously the media bred rumours that at least 100 people were feared dead.

❓ What's also sad, besides the premature death of gold miners, is that Nigeria's Govt still fails to harness illegal small-scale gold mining. Almost all of the country's estimated gold production even today remains undeclared and thus illegal. (see the pic.)

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🇳🇬 Nigeria's Oil Deadlock

🌏 At this moment (2 pm, GMT +1) Nigeria's Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association and Dangote Oil Refinery shall start the second round of negotioations over mass transfer and sack of union members.

❓ The previous round of talks ended in a deadlock, which means PENGASSAN goes on with its strike. So far the major inflicted damage included reduced national power generation by 1,100MW (some 25% of total).

The question is whether the parties are willing to compromise or we may expect a full-fledged oil industry crisis here.

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🇳🇪 Niger Acquired 22k Atomic Bobms

...or such a number of explosive devices could be produced out of 1570 tonnes of uranium, which Niger reportedly confiscated from French Orano company along with the mine where it all had been extracted.

❓ The stockpile is worth $270 million, though it is unclear how Niger would dispose of it, bearing in mind the strick international oversight of fussile materials trade and the World Bank's arbitration order to halt any movement of this stockpiles.

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🇳🇬 It's All Oil Under The Bridge...

🌏 With the help of a bunch of federal ministers, Wednesday morning Nigeria's Dangote Refinery and PENGASSAN trade union ended their dispute.

The terms of their agreement allegedly iclude:
👉 Redeployment of the sacked workers (though in different business units)
👉 No punishment for those engaged in the PENGASSAN strike

Dangote meanwhile seems to be the winner, since none of the sacked will be redeployed at the refinery itself. Also interesting that the agreement only displays the Labour Minister's signature and looks like his own declaration rather than a treaty.

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❤️ Africa Loses 1.5 Niger’s GDP

That much gold is reportedly illegally mined and smuggled from African countries each year.

As the LBMA gold price reaches new heights ($3890 per ounce as of today), we decided to cover some fact about illegal gold mining in Africa.

Did you know that:
👉 Each year around 475 tonnes of gold are produced illegally in Africa (which is equal to approximately $85 billion or 1.5 of Niger’s GDP)
👉 The leaders in illegal mining are Zimbabwe, Mali and Ivory Coast
👉 The major part of illegal gold end up in the UAE, where undergoes refining and join the legal flows of gold bullions

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🇸🇳 Senegal To Launch Refinery

Senegal has announced its plans for the construction of its second oil refinery by 2029.

❓ Like many other crude oil exporting countries, Senegal has long been dependent on petroleum products import due to the lack of local refineries.

This in turn leads to foreign currency deficits and a bizzare situation where countries full of oil (besides Senegal, for example, Nigeria and also Iran) need to rely on oversea refineries.

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🇨🇮 Ivory Coast Joins The Game

Ivory Coast has distributed 11 new mining exploration licenses, whereof 8 for gold.

❓ This, besides the fact that the IC's government goes on performing its basic functions, can tell us that Ivory Coast is inclined to take its share of the pie of the growing prices of gold and other minerals (like copper).

From an investor's perspective, Ivory Coast is thereby distancing itself from its northern neighbourns, where the desire to hop on the train of high prices led to disputes between state and mining corporations.

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🇨🇩🇷🇼 DRC And Rwanda Postpone A Deal

Reuters report that so far the DRC and Rwanda fail to sign a US-sponsored deal on economic cooperation and resources exploitation in the border area.

❓ We've already mentioned that Rwanda and the DRC had agreed on the text of this agreement, with the official introduction of this document expected in early October. Now the DRC appears unwilling to put its signature on the paper.

"The negotiating teams had finalized the text of the agreement but disappointingly, Kinshasa decided at the last minute not to initial it",

a Rwandan official said.

Perhaps the DRC is planning to use its signature as a leverage over Trump to make the latter put pressure on Rwanda. The final goal is probably to get some additional safeguards against armed faction M23 getting Rwandan support.

Heads of both countries are expected to make a visit to Washington by the end of October.


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🇳🇬 Nigeria Boosts Oil (Though Modestly)

Nigeria has reportedly increased daily oil production to 1.7-1.83 million barrels and the number of active drilling rigs from 31 in January to 50 by July 2025.

❓The reforms are attributed to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Comission's (NUPRC) "Drill or Drop" and "One Million Barrels Per Day" initiatives.

However, launched in October 2024, "One Million Barrels Per Day" originally meant the increase in production by 1 million barrels per day by October 2026.

So far it increased from 1.6 a year ago to 1.83.

It's unclear whether Nigeria will eventually meet its ambitious goal, and whether it is worth at all given the persistent surplus on crude oil market.

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🇬🇭 What's Wrong With Ghana's Gold

On Friday Ghana's president held a meeting with civil society representatives intended to discuss solutions to Ghana's "galamsey" problem - massive illegal gold mining that poisons rivers and causes deforestation.

"I don’t gain anything from galamsey. I’m not personally involved in galamsey. I have no interest in galamsey continuing", said the president.

Over the past decade Ghana tried:
👉 Teprorarily banning small-scale mining
👉 Vice-versa expanding legal small-scale mining by massive license distribution
👉 Deporting foreign nationals involved + restricting visa granting rules
👉 Transferring the monopoly to buy gold from small-scale miners to the Gold Board, created in April 2025

What's interesting is that none of this had really had any significant impact yet. Partly this is the reason why some in Ghana are calling on the president to declare a state of emergency.

How exactly the latter can help fix the "galamsey" problem is once again unclear.

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