❤️ Sovereignty Of Gold

🌏 The head of the Gold Board of Ghana announced the launch of local gold refining in October.

The measure seeks to increase the country's weight in supply chains by encouraging the internal production of pure gold. Ghana is the leader in African gold mining, but all its product is refined abroad.

The problem is that the same has already been declared in 2013, 2015, 2016, 2022 and 2024 - but local refining still does not exist.

Pure gold requires strict certification from foreign partners. There are <100 certified refining plants around the world (only 1 in the whole Africa), and miners would always prefer them to a new local refining.

The solution is to build at least 1 plant that meets all the requirements. Then -- force the miners to sell it a part of their production there instead of exporting. Dirty, but that's how the countries that already have their own refining powers act - Russia, for example.


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🤩 What is the Kimberley Process? [1/3]

Between the news, we decided to talk about the regulation of the markets for mineral resources - diamonds.

❓ The diamond market is regulated by the Kimberley Process, a program launched in 2003 in (surprise!) Kimberley with the support of the UN. It aims to solve the problem of "blood diamonds" produced and sold by armed groups.

The core is the certification of rough diamond exports: in the ideal world the states control the supply and issue certificates for each shipment.

👁 Today, 80+ countries are participating in the process. If a state fucks up cannot guarantee that the exported diamonds are not used to finance armed groups, it may be suspended.

At this stage, the reader may have a lot of questions about the reliability of this mechanism, perhaps even has some ideas on how to bypass it. 🤔

We'll talk about it next time.

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❤️ No Investments, Exports In Place

In addition to our previous article on gold mining in Ghana.

🌏 Ghana has tightened the visa regime for the Chinese due to illegal gold mining. The new rules for obtaining visas require a mandatory personal interview and prohibit group visa applications.

❓ According a research, between 2019 and 2023, $11.4 billion of gold and gold-bearing raw materials were extracted and exported illegally to Ghana. It is assumed that most of the illegal exports are carried out by small companies comprised of Chinese citizens.

As part of the same efforts, the Ghanaian government recently created the state Gold Board, which gained the exclusive rights to buy and export artisanal gold.

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🤩 Erase the Blood from a Diamond? [2/3]

Let's continue the series of articles on the Kimberley Process. In today's focus are its problems and breaches.

👉 The main problem is the states.

They verify the origin of the diamonds and issue certificates. So, if there is a "blood diamond" in your hands, just find in your country (or in a neighboring country) a corrupt official who will give the necessary certificate and the diamond will magically become "ethically clean".

👉 In addition, only rough diamonds are checked.

Polishing or cutting a diamond will be enough for the Kimberley not to apply, and the trade in brilliants is, in its turn, almost not controlled.

👉 Finally, the Kimberley only fights against the financing of rebel groups, but not against dangerous working conditions or violations of human rights.

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These issues are well known and the global community has been trying for a long time to fix the system. We'll talk about it next time.

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🇨🇩 Cobalt Without Borders (Though With Quotas)

🌏 The DRC nevertheless lifts the ban on cobalt exports. Instead, from October 16, quotas will come into force.

❓ If you want to better understand the importance of this decision, please refer to our article on cobalt in the DRC.

📈 The ban on cobalt exports was imposed in the DRC last February. The government thus hoped to increase world prices and encourage miners to invest in the internal processing of raw materials (only intermediate products, not pure cobalt, were banned for export).

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For several months, the world's cobalt stocks were sufficient to cover the absent DRC, though their exhaustion was expected at the end of September. Now, even with the lifted restrictions could there still can emerge shortages since the first batch of cobalt will arrive again at the factories in China no earlier than 3 months after shipment - that is, in January 2026.

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🇲🇱 Mali Regains the Gold

Remember the topic of the struggle of Mali and Barrick?

🌏 On September 22, the Malian authorities updated seven agreements with companies in the mining sector to align them with the new Mining Code of 2023.

🤝 The agreements concern in particular the mining assets Sadiola (Allied Gold), Fekola (B2Gold) and Syama (Resolute Mining), Bougouni (Ganfeng).

📈 The new conditions for the activity of miners imply an increase in royalties from 6.5% to 10% and an increase in the minimum state share in projects to 35% (previously — 20%).

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We've already talked about the long-running conflict between the government and Barrick. Today's news is good for Mali – even if they can't reach an agreement with Barrick, renegotiating with other companies will ensure the stability of the gold mining industry and make sure more money goes to the government and the people.

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🇨🇩 The United States Will Not Buy The DRC


❗️ The President of the DRC, Tshisekedi, declared that his country did not intend to "sell its resources at auction".

❓ Our readers know that in October, the DRC and Rwanda are to sign an agreement on cooperation in the extraction of natural resources, in which the US will play a separate role.

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The Trump administration, apparently due to its inability to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, decided to also try to pump resources from other countries.

Against this backdrop politicians who are able to defend the sovereignty and national interests of their country play a special role.

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🇬🇭 Gold Is Poisoning Ghana

🌏 One year since the start of a joint project by Pure Earth and the Ghana Environmental Protection Agency aimed at measuring mercury, lead and arsenic levels in artisanal gold mining areas, a report has been published on the current results of these measurements.

‼️ In some regions, there are huge excesses of mercury in the soil and in the air, as well as arsenic poisoning in fish and cereals.

❓ This year Ghana has firmly embarked on the path of regulating artisanal gold mining.

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Artisanal methods of gold mining are based on dangerous and anachronistic technologies. Toxic mercury is used to separate gold from other materials, while lead and arsenic are released as by-products that irresponsible miners leave at the mining site or dump into rivers.


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🇧🇼 Botswana Wants De Beers

For now, let's look at another part of the continent, where a historic agreement could soon take place.

🌏 The President of Botswana has said his country wants to acquire a majority stake in the diamond mining company De Beers by October.

❓ Once, De Beers occupied 90% of the world's diamond mining and its founder, Cecil Rhodes, was one of the brains behind apartheid and dreamed of making the British colonies all the land "from Cape to Cairo".

The company is now in a very difficult situation and its owner - Anglo American Plc - has been wanting to get rid of its stake for a year and a half.

Among the possible buyers:

👉 Anglo-South African company Ninety One
👉 Angolan company Endiama
👉 Qatari Funds Mayhoola For Investments and Al Mirqab Capital
👉 Indian companies KGK Group and Kapu Gems and others.

In October we'll see if there will be any fight over the assets.

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🇳🇬 Nigerian Oil Is In The Lead

🌏 Nigeria maintained its leadership among African oil-producing countries in August 2025, according to an OPEC report.

❓ So far, the five largest oil producers in Africa are:

👉 Nigeria-1,549,000 barrels/day;
👉 Libya-1,299,000 barrels/day;
👉 Algeria - 940,000 barrels / day;
👉 DRC - 259,000 barrels / day;
👉 Gabon - 226,000 barrels / day.


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🇨🇩The DRC Reclaims Its $7 Billion

🌏 The new Minister of Mining, Louis Watum, has announced that the country plans to increase its gold production, including by developing mines in the eastern part of the country, which is still in conflict with the M23.

‼️ The government says the DRC is currently losing $7 billion — 60 tons of gold annually — due to illegal and unregulated mining and smuggling of gold through Uganda and Rwanda to the United Arab Emirates.

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States around the world are trying to jump on the train of unusually high gold prices. Now, DRC is joining Mali and Ghana, which we wrote about earlier. The country's government is counting on signing an agreement with Rwanda in October and subsequent cooperation with major companies like Barrick to increase legal gold production.

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📈 Gold's Godlen Years

We've already mentioned several times the unprecedented heights of gold prices (GP) in recent years, but we've never posed the question of why gold is ever more expensive.

❓ Since March 2019, the GP per troy ounce has increased by about 280% and currently reaches $3,600 (equivalent to, for example, 76.6 minimum wages in Nigeria). Very good for a measly 33 grams of shiny metal.

Basically, there are 3 reasons that explain the endless rise in GP.:
👉 Geopolitical crises, against which gold seems to be the last island of stability
👉 The low interest rate of the US Federal Reserve, with people around the world choosing to invest in gold instead of dollars
👉 No one has figured out how to grow gold in laboratories (unlike diamonds 😁)

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It is expected that the GP won't stop and will continue to rise up to $4,000 per ounce and above, unless one of the listed factors disappears.

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Sorry, But Can't Stop Thinking of Botswana

🤝 Recently we've mentioned that the country is going to strike a deal with major world diamond miner De Beers so that state's stake in the company reaches at least 50%, which certainly means they want a controlling share.

At first it seemed cool and OK, but then I saw this Bloomberg's interview with pres. Duma Boko of Botswana and thought: actually...why would they do this?

📉 The crisis on the diamond market caused a downturn in Botswana's economy which is now 5% smaller than a year ago and country's deficit budget is itself comparable in full size with the cost of De Beers.

“We want effective control of the industry, we want our voice to be heard…”

🤔 Doen't look like a good deal, especially when in August the same pres. Duma Boko had to announce a public health emergency due to the lack of finances to supply medical stores. 👇

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…So What For?

❗️ Taking into account that such a deal would require Botswana to borrow some (my own assessment) $1.7 billion, it brings along a serious risk for the country’s economy.

The considerations behind it may be:
👉 That diamond prices will soon bounce back and the De Beers asset, which is so to say “cheap” now, is a good investment
👉 That by controlling diamonds production Botswana will be able to effectively affect and make grow world prices (if so why not impose exports control???)

Both are very questionable, mainly because there are still lab-grown diamonds that limit any price growth.

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🤩 How To Polish The Kimberley? [3/3]

Long-overdue finale of our series on the Kimberley process.

As I've said the international community have long noticed that the Kimberley works well mostly on paper.

To improve this, the participants of the mechanism went to great lengths:
👉 They reiterated that the process works well and comprises 99% of world trade in diamonds
👉 They voiced concerns and spoke of the need of reform
👉 In 2022 they finally agreed to create an Ad-hoc Committee for Review and Reforms, charged of devising a new, broader definition of "blood diamonds"

🎉 Finally, in May 2025 the Kimberley was reported to be about to adopt a revised definition (though suggested by the African Diamond Producers Association, rather than the Ad-hoc Committee).

Presumably, it will incorporate some notice of diamond-financed state-driven violence and not only rebel groups. How this will work out we'll see at the Kimberley's November 2025 Plenary session.

Personal opinion: the real change will come only when Kimberley process will be able to enforce its provisions, not with a decorative new definition.

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🇳🇬 What's Up With Nigeria's Oil Refinery?

🌏 Yestarday Nigeria's Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) announced a nation-wide strike against the Dangote Oil Refinery starting today.

The development, that in short-term may strongly affect country's economy, is just another part of Dangote's brawl with trade unionists that started this September.

For you to understand, we've compiled a short chronicle of the dispute:
👉 5 Sept. - Dangote announced it will deploy 4000 Compressed Natural Gas trucks to destribute its products across Nigeria
👉 In responce Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) announced a strike (apparently worrying that new truck drivers will not be part of the Union) and got the support of PENGASSAN
👉 9 Sept. - NUPENG and Dangote signed a deal allegedly making NUPENG the only trade union new Dangote drivers may join
...

Next part 👇

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👉 11 Sept. - NUPENG accused Dangote of not obiding by the deal
👉 17 Sept. - National Industrial Court prohibited NUPENG to perform any industrial actions complelling non-members to join the Union
👉 25 Sept. - Dangote fired some stuff citing "sabotage" (PENGASSAN claims the refinery sacked some 800 white-collar empoyees remplacing them with 2000 Indians - not a joke)
👉 27 Sept. - PENGASSAN called on its members in Dangote to go to strike from Sunday (for those in field locations) and Monday (for those in offices)

All members working across field locations are to withdraw services effective 06:00hrs on Sunday, 28 September 2025 and commence 24-hour prayers.

Dangote is visibly trying to get rid of the noisy unionists by firing and reallocating their members away from the decision-making positions. The unions in their turn dream to have an effective leverage on the Dangote.

❓ The question is where the fuck here are the workers' rights?

P.S. If you were an oil tycoon, would you try to replace 800 of your managers with 2000 out-of-the-blue pulled Indians? 🤔

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🇲🇱 Mali Struggles With Gold

🌏 Today Reuters reported that Mali’s gold production fell by 32% year-on-year because of the dispute with Barrick.

The fact itself is not surprising, given the half-year pause in Barrick’s operation in Mali and its current interim management.

Regulatory uncertainty in Mali has weighed on investment and output. The government, like others in the region, has emphasised resource nationalism while pivoting from Western investors to courting Russian interests.

🤔 What is surprising is how crafty journalists are in relating unrelated things.

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