Mayai Pasua Index: Thoughts on the market on 13.04.2022

Bitcoin moved from the range of $39,220 to $40,690 at the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is trading for $39,740. Total Crypto Market capitalization at $1.860 Trillion, dominance index of 40.8% and fear index 25.

The data on consumer inflation came out, it turned out to be worse than the forecast, but not much (8.5% against the forecast of 8.4%). The market reacted and more so perhaps due to Biden's speech, who said that Putin is to blame for record inflation and rising prices for gasoline and everything else. Today there will be data on industrial inflation in the US (PPI), the data may significantly affect the markets.

To put into perspective the 8.5% inflation to the Kenyan context; For those who have tried the boiled egg delicacy. Usually sold/pedelled at high human traffic areas, around key malls, universities and business centers. I remember vividly back in 2012, somewhere around Nairobi, Westlands and several subsequent years enjoying these boiled eggs served with Kachumbari (salsa) and some ketchup(optional) or chili sauce to add to the taste. The flavors burst and melt inside your mouth and trust me, you will definitely go in for another kill. Sorry I digress, it would cost me Ksh10. Now, you have to part with Ksh25. So in simple terms using the analogy the higher the inflation rate..for instance the US has this now at 8.5%, the higher the mayai pasua sells for. I have literally seen the gradual rise from Ksh10, 15, 20 and now 25. Thats mayai pasua index for you. Without much jargon. The more you pay for the same goods/service the higher the inflation index.

The dollar index is confidently holding above 100, which is always bad for the markets. However, the S&P 500 futures are now showing a slight increase. Bitcoin held within the priority option. The lows were not updated, it was also not possible to go upwards beyond $40,690. The range with the lower border at $39,200 - $38,500 and the upper one at $41,500 - $42,000 remains a priority for today.

An alternative option is to go below the support area $39,200- $38,500, it is possible with an external negative. Looking back at Bitcoin’s price milestones, it has made parabolic move in just 10 consecutive days. Could one of those 10 days be coming soon? Speculating around Apple news, although this is not yet certain. The prospects for Bitcoin without Apple are beyond doubt.
There has been a lot of talk lately about how the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed will negatively affect Bitcoin.

That's all for today, I will post an update later today. Wishing you a good afternoon ahead and remember this is not financial advice or investment recommendation. Must do your own research. #decryptedge

⅓ Of Nigerian Adults Are Crypto Investors? Thoughts on the market on 14.04.2022

Bitcoin has been in the range of $39,600 - $41,550, for the last 10 hours, it has been held above $41,000, at the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is trading at $41,370.
Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.922 Trillion, BTC dominance index at 40.9% and fear index 28.

The producer price index, which measures the prices paid by wholesalers(US market), increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a data series going back to November 2010. On a monthly basis, the gauge climbed 1.4%, above the 1.1% Dow Jones estimate and also a record. The prices that goods and services producers receive rose in March at the fastest pace since records have been kept, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday. Source: CNBC.

Double-digit inflation with maximum energy and food prices is a recession, and there are no monetary methods to combat it in this situation. The Fed's Bullard made another ominous statement about the need to raise the rate to a level that will significantly limit economic activity. He just did not explain how, at such a rate, the national debt of 30 trillion.

This problem has no economic solution. How they are trying to solve it using non-economic methods which, to put it briefly, consist in a simple formula - to make it worse everywhere. The dollar index is back below 100, the S&P 500 futures are in a minimal negative, oil is above $108, and gold is moving towards $2000.

Bitcoin worked out the priority variant of yesterday's review during the day. The price has approached the upper limit of the range indicated, while consolidating under the resistance area. The priority option for today is fixing above $42,000 - $42,200.
An alternative option is Bitcoin in the previous trading range (39200-38500 is the lower limit, $41,500 - $42,000 is the upper limit).

From the interesting - according to a report study by KuCoin exchange, titled: INTO THE
CRYPTOVERSE: DECODING THE WORLD OF CRYPTO CONSUMERS reveals 35% of Nigerian adults are crypto investors). That is a third of the adult population of Nigeria is already investing in cryptocurrencies. Inflation of national currencies and economic problems in developing countries increase interest in the crypto market. Due to limited access to affordable financial services, cryptocurrencies are thus becoming an alternative solution for the storage and transfer of assets. Last month the same exchange had a report, putting the number of crypto users in Africa in 2021 increased by 2500%. (https://t.me/decryptedge/1062). Full report shared below:

All data and info ought to be taken subjectively, beware of Selection biases that occur when looking at samples that are not representative of the population. This can happen organically when working with small sets of data, or when the sampling methodology is not truly randomized.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge

Thoughts on the market on 18.04.2022

Bitcoin moved within the range of $40,700- $39,560 over the Easter weekend, having worked out the priority option of our Thursday review. Early this morning Bitcoin exited the $39,200 - $38,500 lower range. It is now trading for $38, 975. Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.848 Trillion, BTC dominance index 40.9%, fear index 24.

Oil is approaching 113 (BRENT), gold is above 1985. Oil rose on news of the unrest in Libya, against which the shipment of oil from two Libyan ports stopped.

European markets are closed today, in the US - reporting season. The IMF meeting will be held all week, from where important news for the market may come. The current news background is negative. A massive food crisis is looming. In anticipation of it, more and more countries are introducing restrictions on food exports (for example, Kazakhstan recently did this).
For developing countries that depend on food imports, the situation is becoming increasingly threatening.

Bitcoin did not rise above $40,700 over the weekend, but broke through support at $39,500. The main cryptocurrency has been below $40K for more than 6 hours. Altcoins are accelerating the decline, the level of fear in the market is increasing. It's time to turn around - either right away or after the climactic correction. .
The priority option for today is Bitcoin in a range with a lower limit of $39,500 - $39,200 and an upper limit at $41,500 - $42200.

Over the weekend, FUD began to disperse that Binance is supposedly going to block the accounts of all Russians. Binance has stated its position on citizenship-based locks. In an interview with CNN's Richard Quest, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said his firm complies with all government sanctions very strictly. "We will block anyone on the sanction list, or anyone remotely related to them like the wires, the lawyers, mules and friends, and that is our position," Zhao said.

As we stated on 11th April:(https://t.me/decryptedge/1077) We still take the bearish side as long as BTC is below $55K/ $65K weekly. The current movement as we said since 22 Nov 2021 when BTC at $60K "we are looking for a breakdown in Q1 of 2022 to $40(breakdown has happened already https://t.me/decryptedge/860) next level is /32K/28K!". Next dates: 11th, 17th(yesterday) and next is 27th April.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Crypto Market Thoughts on the market on 20.04. 2022

Bitcoin worked on all the review options since our last update “Bitcoin in a range with a lower limit of $39,500 - $39,200 and an upper limit at $41,500 - $42200.” Is a sideways market so boring and repetitive. Notably Bitcoin has been held above $41K for more than 12 hours.
Total Crypto Market capitalization at $1.917 Trillion, dominance index of 41.0%, fear index at 27.

The dollar index again went above 101, now 100.82. Such values ​​were last seen in March 2020, at the height of the most severe corona psychosis. The reason now is the record fall of the yen against the dollar (maximum in 20 years), which occurred against the background of statements by the Fed representatives about the pace of tightening the monetary policy. Yes, and the euro against the dollar is moving towards parity. Interestingly, in March 2020, American indices collapsed by 30-40% due to the emergence of coronavirus, the real danger of which was, let's say, greatly exaggerated.

There is a much more dangerous situation developing - third countries are being drawn into the Ukrainian conflict, there is a threat of the onset of a food and energy crisis looming, as well as a period of severe stagflation. The markets are practically in place, they just stopped growing.
Markets reacted to a largely fictional threat in 2020 much more strongly than to a real threat now. The reason is that during these 2 years a huge money supply has been generated, which does not allow the markets to fall.

The fact that Bitcoin has not fallen below 41K for more than 12 hours indicates a likely repetition of an attempt to pass $41,500- $42,200. So today the scenario is the same - there will be an attempt, in case of success - fixing above $42,200 and the growth of the entire market. In case of an unsuccessful attempt, we remain in the same trading range with the lower limit at $39,200- $38,500 and the upper limit at $41,500 - $42,200. The first option is a priority, the second is an alternative. Many people regret that they sold Bitcoin and no one regrets that they bought it.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 21.04.2022

Bitcoin, yesterday was in the range of $42,205- $40,875. An attempt to consolidate above $42,200 did not lead to success, the price rolled back below $41K. Total Crypto Market capitalization is now at $1.929 Trillion, dominance index 41.1%, fear index 27.

The dollar index is holding above 100.5, oil is above 108. Its now all over the news, shares of Netflix fell rapidly following the results of the earnings report. For the first time, the company's subscriber count has dropped (despite the fact that Netflix predicted an increase in their number). After losing 700K subscribers in Russia, the company raised subscription prices to compensate for the loss, and as a result lost another 600K in the US and Canada. As a result, stocks hit three-year lows, with all of the 2020-2021 gains lost. Tesla released a good report, better than forecasts. The market reaction will be today.

Germany's industrial producer price index rose by 30.9%, the highest in more than 50 years. We mentioned that inflation in the dollar will be distributed to the whole world, and inflation in regional currencies manifests itself much faster and stronger.

On the crypto market, Bitcoin tried to work out the priority option of yesterday's review. The resistance area $41,500- $42,200 was passed, a high above $42,200 was reached.
It has now been consolidating around $41,500- $41,600 for several hours. The priority option for today is another attempt to consolidate above $42,200. In case of success, the growth of the entire market and the imminent capture of $2 trillion capitalization.
If this third attempt fails, price is likely to move to the lower limit of the range. At least to $40,500- $40,600, a drop further depends on the reaction at this level.

From the interesting: Celsius CEO said that Bitcoin and Ethereum will update ATH in 2022. Sharing his insights at the Bitcoin and Ether markets at Paris Blockchain Week Summit. The entrepreneur believes that Terra’s recent BTC purchase played a significant role in supporting BTC’s price, along with other institutions entering the market. He also mentioned that if retail investors join in, it may lead BTC to new highs. On the contrary, the analyst company Kaiko announced a drop in trading volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum to a minimum since, December 2021. This suggests that the market's stay in the range from the beginning of 2022 is coming to an end. Numbers will always tell a different story. Data from @Cryptoquant_alert show BTC inflow to exchanges. A total of 4,143.65 BTC transferred to coinbase pro and Binance this week. Keeping words to context, the keyword to keep in mind is “may”: if retail investors join in, it may lead BTC to new highs.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 22. 04. 2022

Bitcoin has been trading around $40,400- $40,500 for several hours after gaining to a high of $42,970. Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.875 Trillion, dominance index 41.1%, fear index 26. Markets saw a correction yesterday on the results of Powell's speech. He stated that inflation is a global problem and we may see a world with high inflation. That is, inflation at the highest levels in 40 years, is still not high inflation! To combat it he stated that they will raise rates quickly, several times by 0.5%. Then further, if necessary, they will raise it up to 2.5%. Do not rule out an immediate rate increase by 0.75%.

Bullard also added fuel to the fire, saying that there would be no soft landing for the economy. Considering that it (inflation) was created by the actions of the Fed and it was obvious back in the September- December of 2020 that the problem would raise many questions for Biden’s administration. At the beginning of 2021, trillions of aid packages were accepted, yet now inflation is attributed to Russia.

The dollar index is now above 100.5, oil is slightly above 107, S&P 500 futures are slightly in the red. Bitcoin first worked out the priority option from yesterday's review, confidently breaking $42,200 and reaching almost $43K. Later under the influence of external negativity (falling stock markets), Bitcoin switched to an alternative option. The decline of Bitcoin to $41,200 was smooth, then turned into a drain. For a short time, the price went below $40K, after which it returned to $40,400- $40,600, where it is consolidating.

Correlation between the crypto market and the stock market? It has no economic and logical substantiation, and the crowd(herd) believes in correlation. Crypto market is still a nascent sector to cause ripple waves to the whole financial market yet. Although it is contrary to logic and common sense to expect that during a period of record and growing inflation, the most anti-inflationary asset will fall. Markets can only be irrational in the short term.

The priority option for today is Bitcoin in the range with a lower limit of $40,500 - $39,800 and an upper limit of $42,500. Alternative option - fixing below $39,800. Today there will be an expiration of options on Deribit Exchange (at 11:00PM EAT). Increased volatility during and after expiration is highly probable.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

“The Fed That Failed” Thoughts on the market on 23.04.2022

After yesterday's evening correction to $38,457.12, Bitcoin has found stability in the range of $39,350 - $39,850. At the time of writing the review, it's now trading for $39,587. Total Market capitalization $1.841 Trillion, BTC Dominance index 40.8%, Fear index 24.

Dollar Index stuck above $101 as market participants begin to realize the full depth of the situation in which the markets find themselves. Foremost, the head of the Central Bank of England promised a further increase in inflation due to rising energy prices, then the chief economist of the IMF noted that in the event of tougher sanctions against the Russian Federation and a further rise in oil prices, economic growth is generally in question. Janet Yellen also announced in her speech about possible tariff cuts on Chinese goods to fight inflation. At the same time adding that China's purchase of oil and coal from Russia is not a violation of sanctions.

The well-known Economist magazine, whose front covers are always considered as a source of some hidden symbols, summed it up, this time without hints, stated the situation directly. “The Fed That Failed” How inflation humbled America's central bank. Against this background, and taking into account that there may be surprises on the geopolitical line at the weekend, market participants closed their positions before the weekend. So we expect the bottom for the S&P 500 at 4000-4100, in case of some extreme, a correction to 3800, plus or minus 100 points.

Bitcoin, against the background of yesterday's growth of the dollar index and S& P correction, worked out an alternative version of yesterday's review. A low was set just below $39,200, a quick buyout started from this level. Bitcoin has not yet been able to overcome $39,700- $39,800 level. It's now on consolidation around 39500.

Since January of this year, the market has been in a large range from $48K to $33K. Some see this as a weakness of the asset - there are many institutionalists money supposedly pouring in, and inflation is growing, but Bitcoin is not growing. Fact is the world is undergoing a radical break in the way of life, the world is close to a big war, there are global economic problems, a significant part of the world's population will soon have problems with food; against the background of all this, Bitcoin does not fall or grow. Soon we shall see a denouement on this, and it will be very clear. We have shared our bias view here(https://t.me/decryptedge/1077)

Over the weekend, the priority option is Bitcoin in the range with the lower border of $39,200- $38,500 and the upper one at $40,800- $41,500. An alternative option is a correction to $38,500 and a renewal of April 18 lows. In the thin weekend market, this option is quite possible, the reason may be FUD that Mike Saylor is secretly selling his Bitcoins.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 25.04. 2022

Bitcoin spent the weekend around $39,500, with the opening of the stock markets continuing to decline, reaching lows of $38,200. Updating the April 2022 all time lows. At the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is worth $38,595. Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.804 Trillion, dominance index 41.2%, fear index 23.

The dollar index has skyrocketed and is approaching 101.7. This week, the release of company reports in the US continues, data on business and industrial activity, the real estate market and the labor market will also be released.

Bitcoin remains in the range that was discussed on Saturday, $39,200- $38,500
If there is a re-test of the lower border of the range at $38,500 and it turns out to be successful for the bears (leads to fixing below 38500), Bitcoin may then go below 38K for a while.
The priority option for today is Bitcoin in the range of $38,500- $40,800. Alternative - fixing below $38,500 with movement towards $37,500 - $37,200.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 27.04.2022 Bitcoin going to 32/28K! Will you use these levels as buying opportunities?

Bitcoin lost support at $38,500, reaching lows below $37,740. At the time of writing this review, it's trading for $38,325. With a total crypto market capitalization of $1.769 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.2% and fear index 21.

Stock markets too fell yesterday, here are the numbers, Dow Jones lost 2.38%, the Nasdaq fell 3.95%, the S&P 500 fell 2.81% to close at 4175. The dollar index is now at 102.3. The last time this happened was in March 2020, at the peak of corona psychosis, a all time high of 103.8, is already close.

Tesla shares fell, strongly, by 12.18%. Probable fall due to investors' fears that Elon Musk would take money to buy Twitter by selling Tesla shares. Realizing that Tesla shares would fall from this, many decided to sell them before Elon. Considering that the mood in the markets is far from optimistic, a situation has arisen - Tesla is falling, pulling the indices, Tesla shares make up 2.5% of the S&P. Such corrections of indices provokes a sell off by the crowd. Some stocks fell by 30% or more, the volatility index rose to a monthly high.

Report from Google, earnings per share came out worse than expected. Considering that in the current situation, advertising spending is clearly on the decline, this is not surprising.
Today we have a META report. In February, META(facebook) collapsed both the company's shares and the markets with the 4th quarter report of 2021, which saw a decrease in the number of active users. What will happen now ? It's already blocked in Russia and the reduction in the number of advertisers have also declined?
The S&P 500 moved to the 4000-4100 area that we referred to as the bottom.

Against the backdrop of falling stock markets, Bitcoin lost support at $38,500, updated local lows below $37,740, after which it returned above $38,200 and has so far stabilized in the range of $38,100- $38,400.

I think that the priority option for today is Bitcoin in a range with a lower limit at $38,000- $37,500 and an upper limit at $39,500- $39,800. An alternative option is to go below 38K, a test of support at $37,500- $37,200.
In the medium term, I expect a break in the correlation of Bitcoin with the stock market. It has no economic justification. When the correlation of Bitcoin with stock indices becomes an axiom and completely captures the minds of the crowd. I think this will be the main market shock of 2022.
Our bearish bias of 32/28K. (https://t.me/decryptedge/1077)

We had given you a heads up for 27th April. Going forwards, will you use these levels as a buy opportunity?

Thoughts on the market on 27.04.2022 Bitcoin going to 32/28K! Will you use these levels as buying opportunities?

Bitcoin lost support at $38,500, reaching lows below $37,740. At the time of writing this review, it's trading for $38,325. With a total crypto market capitalisation of $1.769 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.2% and fear index 21.

Stock markets too fell yesterday, here are the numbers, Dow Jones lost 2.38%, the Nasdaq fell 3.95%, the S&P 500 fell 2.81% to close at 4175. The dollar index is now at 102.3. The last time this happened was in March 2020, at the peak of corona psychosis, a all time high of 103.8, is already close.

Tesla shares fell, strongly, by 12.18%. Probable fall due to investors' fears that Elon Musk would take money to buy Twitter by selling Tesla shares. Realising that Tesla shares would fall from this, many decided to sell them before Elon. Considering that the mood in the markets is far from optimistic, a situation has arisen - Tesla is falling, pulling the indices, Tesla shares make up 2.5% of the S&P. Such corrections of indices provokes a sell off by the crowd. Some stocks fell by 30% or more, the volatility index rose to a monthly high.

Report from Google, earnings per share came out worse than expected. Considering that in the current situation, advertising spending is clearly on the decline, this is not surprising. Today we have a META report. In February, META(facebook) collapsed both the company's shares and the markets with the 4th quarter report of 2021, which saw a decrease in the number of active users. What will happen now ? It's already blocked in Russia and the reduction in the number of advertisers have also declined?

The S&P 500 moved to the 4000-4100 area that we referred to as the bottom. Against the backdrop of falling stock markets, Bitcoin lost support at $38,500, updated local lows below $37,740, after which it returned above $38,200 and has so far stabilised in the range of $38,100- $38,400.

I think that the priority option for today is Bitcoin in a range with a lower limit at $38,000- $37,500 and an upper limit at $39,500- $39,800. An alternative option is to go below 38K, a test of support at $37,500- $37,200.

In the medium term, I expect a break in the correlation of Bitcoin with the stock market. It has no economic justification. When the correlation of Bitcoin with stock indices becomes an axiom and completely captures the minds of the crowd. I think this will be the main market shock of 2022.

Our bearish bias of 32/28K. (https://t.me/decryptedge/1077). We had given you a heads up for 27th April. Going forwards, will you use these levels as a buy opportunity?

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 28.04.2022

Bitcoin halted the downward correction and switched to growth. For the last 12 hours, it has been trading in the range of $38,800- $39,400. An attempt to go higher has not yet been successful and at the time of writing the review, Bitcoin is at $39,275. Total crypto market capitalisation at $1.798 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.5%, fear index 24.

The dollar index has updated its highs at 103.696. A growing dollar may well lead to parity in the euro-dollar pair (this is when 1 euro = 1 dollar. But it may be lower). Euro/Dollar parity is an undesirable event. It is good for Europe, as an exporter of goods. However raw materials and foodstuffs are valued in dollars. With a low euro exchange rate, you will need a lot of it and this is a factor that amplifies the already record inflation. Data on inflation from Germany will be released today, it will be interesting.

Today's heavyweight reports will be from APPLE and AMAZON. We will see the market reaction to the reports tomorrow. META(facebook) report turned out to be better than expected (apparently, expectations were quite low, based on the previous report, and the current situation). Because the markets are reacting positively, futures for the S&P 500 are now in positive territory.

Bitcoin worked out the priority version of yesterday's review. Yesterday morning it was at the lower boundary of the specified range, now it has approached the upper boundary (resistance area at $39,500- $39,800). The first attempt to pass these resistances was unsuccessful, another attempt is highly likely. If it fixes above $39,800, Bitcoin will quickly return above $40K, and the next target will be to take $40,500 - $40,600. This will be the top priority for today. An alternative option is Bitcoin in the previous trading range (lower limit $38,000 - $37,500, upper limit $39,500 - $39,800).

Important dates for BTC, watch the Bulls & Bears perform. These macro bearish biases of 32/28K remain (https://t.me/decryptedge/1077) . On 17th April was a normal day followed by +8% PUMP, 23rd Apr, a normal day. 27th Apr, day before -5.7% DUMP. Next date: 3th May.



This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market as of 30.04.2022

Bitcoin during the day moved from $39,800 to below $38,200. At the time of writing the review it is trading at $38,609. Total Crypto market capitalization of $1.758 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.8% and fear index - 20. The dollar index after a small drawdown returned above $103 and closed at $103.230

There is somewhat a planned decline of indices amid geopolitical tensions. AMAZON report, company's shares fell by 15% and further collapsed the markets. At the same time, APPLE shares fared better and only fell by 3.66% The fall swallowed up all the tiny growth that was registered the day before. The S&P 500 fell to the April 2021 levels, and came close to the bottom zone at 4000-4100, which we mentioned here. If the geopolitical situation does not bring strong surprises at the beginning of the week, a rebound is likely.

An interesting point is that there is a positive correlation between the dollar and commodities. Previously, with the growth of the dollar, raw materials fell, but now they are growing. This once again confirms that the growth of the dollar index now is not so much the growth of the dollar as a stronger fall in other currencies. The purchasing power of the dollar is falling, but for other currencies it is falling even more, because the United States "distributes inflation" to the whole world, and regional currencies - in a limited location.

As a result, prices for raw materials and goods in other currencies are rising even faster than in the dollar.

Bitcoin remains within the range: an upper limit at $39,800 - $39,900 and a lower limit at $38,200 - $37,500. Yesterday morning we were at the upper limit and at night we tested the lower one (Bitcoin went briefly below $38,200). This was followed by an unsuccessful attempt to exit above $38,800 and consolidation around $38,500- $38,600. I do not rule out that on the thin weekend market, there will be another correction towards $37,500. That said, the priority option is to remain in the same trading range until Monday. Nothing changes in the medium term either, the break in the correlation of Bitcoin with the stock market is a matter of a short time. It has no economic basis other than the market crowd's belief in this correlation.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 03.05. 2022(late update)

Bitcoin traded within the $39,160 to $38,072 range during the day. A move above $38,800 was not possible to gain a foothold. Since our last update on Saturday, we have been oscillating within the above range and have now narrowed to $38,300- $38600. Boring indeed, at the time of writing this late review, it has exited and is now trading for $37,681. Total Crypto Market capitalization $1.695 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 42.1%,ETH dominance index at 19.7%. Fear index at 27.

The dollar index yesterday reached $103.770, now it is slightly above $103.5. It may aim higher to $104 before we see a draw down. Interestingly, during the American session, the S&P 500 fell to 4066. This is the first entry below 4100 since September 2021, and the first test of the 4000-4100 area, which as indicated in our last reviews could be the bottom for the S&P 500. That said, the beautiful thing about analysis is one is bound to change as per the conditions at hand. This is just a -14% draw down compared to 2020 -33% correction, so strap in for probable dipper dips.

Today the markets had interesting reports on pro inflation in the EU. The American market too, everything will be interesting in a few hours time. What will be the consequences of the energy and food crisis for Europe and the US? Why is there no economic way out of the situation, as well as social networks and freedom of speech? Let's follow closely.

Bitcoin, as expected, did not pass $38,800, and went down. The range is narrowing, there will soon be an active movement in hours to follow.

If you want to sell Bitcoin because it is falling, because of the correlation with the stock market, because “the Fed will raise the rate and it will generally fall to 20K” (and other arguments that chats, tweeter and various channels are now full of, consider two points.

1.Bitcoin was at the levels where it is now for the first time, at the beginning of January 2021.
Remember (or find and read) what was written then. Joyful screams about natives, euphoria and the desire to take out a loan to buy Bitcoin.(not recommended.)
Does Bitcoin at 38K in 2021 differ from Bitcoin at 38K in 2022?
Nothing different. Except as the perception of those who are guided by emotions instead of brains, that is, the main part of the market crowd. Therefore, large holders of Bitcoin are buying it up now, weak hands are selling it, and some are opening shorts.

2. If you now have some surplus cash, say 1M and they are just lying in a bank, idle, in a year their purchasing power will be 850K-880K. Best case scenario.
In fiat, a loss of 12-15% is almost guaranteed. In crypto, no one guarantees anything, but there are reasonable expectations.
Interestingly, the largest Argentine private bank has opened the opportunity for clients to purchase BTC, ETH, XRP, USDS.
For Argentina, with its eternal problem of inflation, the fall of the national currency and default, this topic is particularly relevant.(https://decrypt.co/99264/argentinas-largest-bank-to-offer-bitcoin-ethereum-trading)

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 04. 05. 2022

A slight bounce back from early this morning $37,681 updated to $38,460. Total Crypto Market capitalization $1.717 billion, BTC dominance of 42.2% and ETH: 19.6%, fear index is at 21. Stock markets were up yesterday. The Nasdaq added 0.22%, the Dow Jones gained 0.20% and the S&P 500 gained 0.48% to close at 4175. Dollar index hovering around 103.5, our 104 target still holds. S&P 500 expectedly rebounded from the 4000-4100 area, which we have mentioned before, although the real outcome will be today or tomorrow.

Markets are waiting for the results of the Fed meeting and especially the press conference with comments, until then there will be no significant movements. Interestingly, yesterday the shares of Blue Water Vaccines Inc (biotech) soared by 93%, while the papers of Spero Therapeutics Inc (Pharma) fell by 63.6% in 1 session. Yet you will still read and hear biased comments about the risks of high volatility of the crypto.

German Interior Minister Nancy Feather urged Germans to stock up on food and medicine and be prepared for power outages. However, she recommends using a list that allows you to live offline for 10 days. So the question is - is it because of the energy and food crisis. If so does it mean we may see a further aggravation of the geopolitical situation, involvement of third countries in this conflict. The markets in this case are not predictable, it depends on the degree of escalation. In the short term there will be panic, when everything is over - recovery. If it comes to nuclear weapons, the state of the market and even the price of Bitcoin will not matter.

Plans for today - Bitcoin is in a range with a lower limit of $37,500- $37,000 and an upper limit of $38,800-$39,200. Alternative variant - a correction towards $36,500- $36,300, with consolidation below $37,000, is possible under the influence of external negativity. Cumulative BTC inflow to exchanges from 2nd May to as of writing this stands at 17,089.53 Btc, this are on Binance and @Coinbase. The last update we had was here: https://t.me/decryptedge/1090. Since then we have not seen much retail inflows going by these numbers so strap in.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 05.05.2022

Last night, Bitcoin left the trading range and set a local high above $40K. At the time of writing the review, Bitcoin is worth $39,694. Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.804 Trillion, BTC dominance index 41.8%, ETH: 19.7% fear index of 27.

Stock markets were up yesterday. The Nasdaq rose 3.19%, the Dow Jones gained 2.81%, the S&P 500 added 2.99% to close at 4300. The dollar index fell to $102.5, where it has now stabilized.

The Fed made the expected decision to raise the rate by 0.5 to 1%, the balance sheet reduction will begin on June 1. The market took it positively, because the rate increase by 0.75 was not considered right away. The balance sheet reduction in the first 3 months will be more symbolic - $47.5 billion per month. Lastly Powell did not promise to fight inflation at the cost of going into recession. He did not designate economic growth as a priority, so the intrigue for the future remains. Lest we forget, such a move 22 years ago, in the year 2000 the Federal Reserve tried to cool the excess of the dot com bubble, it worked a little too well as the dot com bust happened later in March and months that followed of the same year.

In general, everything in the market turned out to be a little better than it was already, the indices stabilized after rising by 2-3%, now the futures on the S&P 500 are approximately at the same level. With markets calming down, the volatility index fell by 13%. Additional statements by the Fed representatives, or an escalation in geopolitics may worsen the situation.

Bitcoin, until yesterday's news from the Fed, remained in the range that we mentioned. The priority option for today is Bitcoin in the range with the lower border at $39,200- $38,800 and the upper border at $40,600- $40,800. Alternative option is to fix below $39,200 and return to the previous trading range.

Some interesting facts from Coinbase CEO: according to Brian Armstrong, the number of cryptocurrency users will grow 5 times within 10 years and reach 1 billion. I hope it's not a case of optimism bias. We shall revisit this midway if we are on course to a billion crypto users.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research

Thoughts on the market on 06.05.2022

Bitcoin volatility at its best, oscillated from a high of $40,046 at the beginning of the week to a low of $35,560 registered last night. At the time of writing the review, price is at $36,000
Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.672 Trillion, BTC dominance index 41.4%, ETH 19.7% fear index at 22.

Stock markets fell heavily yesterday. The Nasdaq fell 4.99%, the Dow Jones shed 3.12%, the S&P 500 fell 3.57% to close at 4146. The dollar index has renewed new highs of $104.061 we talked about it 2 days ago(https://t.me/decryptedge/1100) as of now it is trading around $103.45

After the Fed’s meeting, Powell said that they would raise the rate, but only by 50 points and the balance will also be reduced, but not very quickly, for a start by $47.5 billion a month. This caused optimism and growth of the markets on Wednesday. On Thursday, he did not refute what was said earlier, the market refutes him. In other words, the markets don't believe Powell's words. Last year he declared the temporary nature of inflation, although since March of 2020 it was obvious what the generation of trillions of dollars would lead to.

Market participants understand that in the current economic and geopolitical conditions, inflation will only increase. Raising the rate by at least 50 points, and a further 75 points, will not solve the problem. To defeat inflation, the real rate must be positive. That is, it is necessary to raise it to 9-10%, and this is completely unrealistic due to the debt load. In this regard, market participants expect that by June the Fed will see an increase in inflation and raise the rate by 75 points. If Powell or anyone else from the Fed does not reaffirm today what was said on Wednesday, the markets may continue to fall.

Geopolitical tensions are also growing - more and more likely that Poland will send troops to the western regions of Ukraine. It also becomes public information that the participation of some NATO countries in the Ukrainian conflict is not limited to the supply of weapons.

Bitcoin, against such an external background, lost support at 37,000, and reached levels where it had not been since February of this year. The fall in the stock markets is used to redistribute crypto assets, it has already happened and will happen more than once. Now an intermediate support has formed at $36,100- $36,200, but this does not cancel the possibility of going lower.
A more powerful support area is the zone $35,500 - $34,300. The bottom area of $​​32,000 - $30,000. With a possible correction to $28K. (our biased bearish view:https://t.me/decryptedge/1097) Entry into this area becomes highly probable if Bitcoin fixes below $34,300 for more than 6-8 hours.

But If we leave for the weekend with Bitcoin above $37K, this will quell the markets, everything will be decided at the American session.

Note that despite the fall to February levels, real fear has not appeared on the market. Alts have not drained as much - there is a market drawdown, not a panic drain. Real fear and bearish consensus is needed to break the correlation with the stock and move to growth and for this the markets have to fall more.

​​This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research