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#Bitcoin & Digital Assets Beyond the Hype!

Daily insights, overview and filter summarized #Crypto global updates.

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Thoughts on the market on 25.03. 2022

Late Update: Bitcoin continued to grow, having worked out the priority option from yesterday's review.

Market capitalization $1.996 Trillion, dominance index 41.9%, fear index 47.

Again, Fed spokesman Charles Evans declares that the regulator is ready to raise the rate by 0.5% at once. Another Fed spokesman announced the reduction of the balance sheet already in May. Markets do not react to such aggressive rhetoric as the main risks now are geopolitics, runaway commodity and food prices, and a looming food crisis.

Recently, on the channel, we spoke about anti-globalization, which is now rapidly changing the previously existing picture of the world. Reducing the role of the dollar in reserves and international payments, breaking economic ties, dividing the previously single economic space into sectors separated by barriers. Read more here.

The head of BlackRock (an investment company with $10 trillion in assets) says very similar things in his letter to shareholders. Today, market movements will be influenced mainly by news from Brussels - will there be further escalation and involvement of third countries in the conflict, or will the instinct of self-preservation still prevent unreasonable and dangerous actions for the world? It is also possible to reduce the indices due to the closing of positions before the weekend. Especially if the information from Brussels is disturbing.

Bitcoin has attained the 45K level exceeding it by $136, and rejected now for the third time. Given the expiration of Bitcoin futures and the opening of new ones on Monday, it is logical that the price will be pushed down until Monday. Two years ago, this would have been a priority scenario, but now CME futures affect the price much less. Therefore, after the rejection at $45K and if Bitcoin stays above the $43,500- $42,800 area until Monday, then the final consolidation above $45K will be a matter of the next few days. Or else we see some red price action at the background on unfavorable news. Highly likely.

Over the past 3 months, the fear index has entered the neutral zone three times, but did not stay there for more than 2-3 days, after which a drain always followed. Let's see what happens this time. Interestingly, Russia allowed the possibility of selling oil and gas for Bitcoin.
The idea is good, but not yet. Since in this case, Bitcoin will become a big threat to the dollar, a US reaction will be appropriate. Powell is already talking unhealthy.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge
Thoughts on the market as of 01.04. 2022. After Bitcoin broke through above 45K. Price has now declined to $44,300, a low of $44,200 is already set. Market capitalization $2.052 Trillion, dominance index 41.5%, fear index 50. I missed updating the on rally to $48,126. Been away since Saturday.

Markets are reacting to a new reality - rising inflation, rising prices for almost everything, breaking old ties and alliances, sanctions and barriers. This is anti-globalization and the main threat is that in addition to record inflation, the economy is clearly shrinking. Sanctions, barriers, disruption of supply chains and rising costs will inevitably lead to just such a result.

A falling economy combined with rising inflation is the worst thing that can happen to an economy. Monetary based solutions or methods cannot be of much help now. It is impossible to either raise the rate (increase costs, finish off the economy), or lower it (where, if inflation is already at its maximum). The result is a stagflationary spiral, the way out of which by economic methods will be difficult and long. Some may e use non-economic methods.

Bitcoin has been declining for over 12 hours. Those who bought Bitcoin above 47K on FOMO, and now will sell for fear of the onset of another crypto winter, only to then buy above 50K.

A fundamental reason for the fall now could also be information from the EU, where a decision was made to ban even small cryptocurrency transfers without verification.
Sounds menacing, this is only a draft that will be considered at the plenary meeting this month.
Even if this obscurantism is eventually accepted, it will not hurt the market much.
First, in Europe the world did not converge like a wedge. Those who want to maintain privacy (and many go into the crypto for this) can do this in other jurisdictions. Secondly, this has already happened. Let's remember the 5th EU Directive in 2019. The market digested it and adapted.

The priority option is for Bitcoin to return to 45K, in the next 12hrs. An alternative option is a decline to the support area of $43,200- $42,800.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge
Thoughts on the market as of 04.04.2022

Bitcoin completed the priority version of Friday’s review. Went above $45K and moved in the range of 45500-47500 for the last two days. At the time of writing the review, Bitcoin is trading at $46,177. Total Crypto Market capitalization of $2.144 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 40.7%, fear index 52.

The driver for the markets this week could be the FOMG protocols, if there is something unexpected about the rate increase and balance reduction. It is also interesting whether the US will be able to incite other countries to a flash mob to drain strategic oil reserves into the market, and significantly collapse the price.

The main negative for the market is inflation with a real threat of turning into stagflation, rising energy prices, an impending food crisis, and geopolitical risks.Everything that softens or at least pushes back these threats will be positive.

Price movement for Bitcoin:a probable attempt to overcome the resistance area at 47500-48200 as a priority option, further depends on the success of this attempt.
Alternative option - Bitcoin in the range of 45-47K

This week (April 6-8), Miami will host the Bitcoin 2022 conference. This is an important event in the industry, during which important announcements and announcements often occur. For example, during the last conference, the President of El Salvador announced that Bitcoin would be given the status of an official currency. I think there will be something no less interesting at this conference. Perhaps of interest will be related to Apple.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge
Thoughts on the market as of 04. 05. 2022

Bitcoin remained in the $45,130- $46,900 range during the day, having worked out an alternative version of yesterday's review. After testing the lower limit of the range, Bitcoin moved to growth. It is now trading around $46,700. With a Market capitalization of $2.162 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.0 and fear index of 53.

The oil market was not impressed by Biden's statements about the sale of strategic reserves that were made earlier, oil is now above $109 (BRENT). This despite the truce between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. This is how the expectation of new anti-Russian sanctions affects the market. Interestingly, the United States, being the main initiator and organizer of these same sanctions, is nowhere near the plight of its European partners. Not only did they not stop importing oil from Russia, but also increased the volume of supplies by 43%. The dollar index was above 99 yesterday, now it is 98.9, the S&P 500 futures are in a slight negative.

Interestingly, large US investors, including Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (whose shares are the most expensive in the world), are making large purchases of oil stocks, despite the fact that they are now at the highs. They understand that dollars and euros can be printed, but oil and gas cannot. Just reminds me of the tweet by James G Rickards, NY Times bestselling author: The New Great Depression. “Before the invasion, the USD/RUB cross rate was 80.0. Today the USD/RUB cross rate is 80.5 bid. Sanctions have had no impact on the Russian ruble at all. But sanctions will cost Americans and Germans billions of dollars through higher energy costs and inflation. Enjoy.”

The most anti-inflationary asset - Bitcoin - has been moving between $45K and $47K for the last 24 hours. The bottom of the range was tested, a quick buyout from $45,130 went up to $46,900 followed by consolidation around $46,500- $46,600, where Bitcoin has been for the last 6 hours.
Probably expect attempts to pass the resistance area at $47,500 - $48,200 as we await for informational occasions from the Bitcoin2022 conference #Miami,

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge
Thoughts on the market on 06.04.2022

Bitcoin briefly went below $45K at night, the correction to $44,400, after which a return to the previous range followed. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is worth $45,260.
Total Crypto Market capitalization is $2.085 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.2% and fear index 48.

The markets are under pressure from the statements of the Fed representatives about more aggressive monetary policy, and the expectations of the March FOMC, which will be published today. A sober reminder that it was the FOMC that brought down the market in January.
The dollar index peaked above 99.6 and is now at 99.56. These were 2020 September - December coronapsychosis levels. Oil is above $106.

Today is the first day of the Miami conference. I think it will be something interesting. Like about El Salvador last year, but cooler.

The priority option for Bitcoin today is movement in the range of $44,400- $47,500.
Correction below may be against the backdrop of further growth of the dollar index or the general negative on the markets. Neither the short-term (fixation above $48,200 with the subsequent movement to 50K), nor the medium-term ones, which are mentioned, do not change. We are still looking for another dump as long as no weekly breakout happens above 50/55K. ​​We still take the bearish side as long as BTC is below $55K/ $65K weekly. The current movement as we said since 21 Nov 2021 when BTC at $60K "we are looking for a breakdown in Q1 of 2022 to $40(breakdown has happened already) next level is /32K/28K!". Next dates: 11th, 17th and 27th April.

These dates do not tell you to buy or sell, but you can use it in your TA as a time factor for patterns, trends, etc.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge
Thoughts on the market on 06.04.2022

Bitcoin briefly went below $45K at night, the correction to $44,400, after which a return to the previous range followed. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is worth $45,260.

Total Crypto Market capitalisation is $2.085 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.2% and fear index 48.

The markets are under pressure from the statements of the Fed representatives about more aggressive monetary policy, and the expectations of the March FOMC, which will be published today. A sober reminder that it was the FOMC that brought down the market in January.

The dollar index peaked above 99.6 and is now at 99.56. These were 2020 September - December coronapsychosis levels. Oil is above $106.

Today is the first day of the Miami conference. I think it will be something interesting. Like about El Salvador last year, but cooler.

The priority option for Bitcoin today is movement in the range of $44,400- $47,500.

Correction below may be against the backdrop of further growth of the dollar index or the general negative on the markets. Neither the short-term (fixation above $48,200 with the subsequent movement to 50K), nor the medium-term ones, which are mentioned, do not change. We are still looking for another dump as long as no weekly breakout happens above 50/55K. ​​We still take the bearish side as long as BTC is below $55K/ $65K weekly. The current movement as we said since 22 Nov 2021 when BTC at $60K "we are looking for a breakdown in Q1 of 2022 to $40(breakdown has happened already https://t.me/decryptedge/860) next level is /32K/28K!". Next dates: 11th, 17th and 27th April.

These dates do not tell you to buy or sell, but you can use it in your TA as a time factor for patterns, trends, etc.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research
Thoughts on the market on 07.04.2022

Bitcoin continued to decline, to a low of $42,720 in tandem with our bearish bias. It later bounced back and at the time of writing this it is trading for $43,490. Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.986 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.4%, fear index at 34.

The FOMC protocols were negative for the market (raising the rate by 0.5%, reducing the balance sheet after the May meeting of the Fed, and at a faster pace than in previous cycles), but this negative was expected, because it did not cause any collapse.

Bitcoin tested the strength of the support area. The correction below $43K was quickly bought out, but there is no growth as price has stabilized around $43,200 - $43,300. Market capitalization at the same time fell below $2 Trillion.

The market is under pressure from a rising dollar index, as well as expectations of negativity from the United States, where a bill has been submitted to the House of Representatives to curb sanctions evasion with the help of cryptocurrencies. The Hydra story can also be used for FUD if there is interest. Especially when you consider where the Garantex office is located, which the US Treasury tied to Hydra. All of the above can affect the market in the short term.

What to expect from the market today?

If the support at $42,800 fails and the price consolidates lower, the next support area will be at $42,200 - $41,800. Fixing above $43,800, the return of capitalization above 2 Trillion, will indicate an imminent return above 45K and a resumption of growth. Chances of this are slim now. This can however happen very quickly, on good news coming out from the conference.

Pay attention to the dominance index - altcoins do not fall relative to Bitcoin, which means that there is no real fear in the market yet.

This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge.
Miami’s Crypto Craze on full Display at Bitcoin Conference. “No Shiny, Bronze Balls Here”

Thoughts on the market on 08.04 .2022

Bitcoin bounced back to the trading range of $43,200 - $43,750 for the last 12 hours, and at the time of writing this review it is trading for $43,620. With a Total Crypto Market capitalization of $2.021 Trillion, BTC dominance index of 41.0% and fear index 37.

The growth of the market brings to mind the popular “dead cat bounce” pattern. Considering the growing dollar index, which is stubbornly approaching 100, information from the Fed about the reduction of the balance sheet from May to $95 billion a month, the growing geopolitical tensions and profit taking on the last trading day of the week, I think that most indices will drop today.

For further growth, it is necessary for bitcoin to touch the zone of local resistance at $43,800 - $44,200, and gain a foothold above it. This is the probable priority option. The alternative option is Bitcoin in a range with a lower limit at $42,800 - $42,500 and an upper limit at $44,000 - $44,200. In the case of working out the priority option over the weekend, expect a strong growth of altcoins.

Interestingly, in Miami, they launched their own cryptocurrency and the state authorities also erected a monument to the cryptobull. Dozens of companies are using the Bitcoin 2022 conference running Wednesday through Saturday as a venue to network, pitch ideas and share announcements. The largest crypto company to move to Miami so far, Blockchain.com, will house 200 employees at a location in the hip Wynwood district, where other tech firms are setting up shop as well. “No, it’s not the beginning of the robot apocalypse. It’s not an NFT come to life. It’s not the final boss in a video game. And it doesn’t poop bitcoins.” “Welcome to the future of finance,” said Miami Mayor Francis Suarez as a blue shroud pulled back to reveal the Miami Bull, a 3,000-pound futuristic statue modeled after Wall Street’s iconic Charging Bull.

The massive Miami Bull has the same dimensions as the Charging Bull and has his head lowered in the same fighting stance, too. (Unlike its New York counterpart, though, the Miami Bull is neutered. No shiny, bronze balls here.) Source: miamiherald

Lastly, a Bloomberg Intelligence report on crypto has been released, the main theses - Bitcoin has shown itself to be more stable than the stock market, Bitcoin is a very attractive asset in the long term, it becomes a collateral instrument and a reserve asset.

Wishing you a blessed weekend and remember this is not traditional investment advice. Must do your own research. D.Y.O.R. #Decryptedge.
Another Covid-?? Crypto Market Thoughts on the market 11.04. 2022

Bitcoin ended the weekend well, reaching highs above $43,430, but has now started the week with a decline. A low price was set below $41,750. At the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is trading for $42,005. Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.949 Trillion, and BTC dominance index of 41.1% and fear index at 32.

The dollar index is growing and approaching 100, oil has lost more than 2.3%. Tomorrow, Tuesday, data on consumer inflation in the US will be released, and on Wednesday - industrial inflation. If these data are worse than the forecast, the markets may perceive this as a threat of an extraordinary Fed meeting and a rate hike before May.

Situation in China is also pressing on the markets, where they are fanning another wave of coronapsychosis. Shanghai reported nearly 25,000 locally transmitted COVID-19 infections on Sunday, as residents of China's most populous city voiced complaints over food and basic supplies and concern spread that more cities may soon be in the same situation. Image shared is from google, on the spike of cases.

Bitcoin first worked out the priority option over the weekend, holding above $42,500 and reaching values ​​above $43,430 by Sunday evening. But with the start of the working week, Bitcoin switched to an alternative option, which provided for a shift in the trading range one floor lower, to $42,500 - $41,800. Alts to Bitcoin are still not being drained, the dominance index is low, which means that real fear has not yet come to the market.

MicroStrategy purchased another 4,100 BTC, now they have 129,218 Bitcoins. The company made its first public purchase of BTC in August 2020. The purpose of the purchase was to protect against inflation, which MicroStrategy considered inevitable. In addition to MS, Elon Musk, Dorsey, and many other people with big and colossal money did the same.

The question is - people who bought Bitcoin to protect against inflation, always working ahead of the curve when this inflation was still about 2%, will they sell it when time has confirmed the correctness of their choice. With inflation updating to new highs and has no particular chance to slow down, geopolitical factors have been added to the monetary ones. What will they do? What will be a reasonable safe haven? Do they have the strong conviction to hold on to the new asset class?
My sentiments are institutional hands are shifting quietly and stealthily, but thanks to @cryptoquant_alert this month that is 1st April 2022 to as of writing of this review a total of 34,537.39 BTC has been moved to exchanges. That is an average total of USD1,462,164,581.82. The actions of big players are one of the main factors influencing a market where supply is limited. We shall revisit this at a future date.

If Bitcoin maintains above $41,800, then price could return above 42500 and a move in the $42,500 - $43,500 range. In case the support at $41,800 is lost, the next area of ​​support is $41,400 - $40,800, then $40,300 - $39,900.

We still take the bearish side as long as BTC is below $55K/ $65K weekly. The current movement as we said since 22 Nov 2021 when BTC at $60K "we are looking for a breakdown in Q1 of 2022 to $40(breakdown has happened already https://t.me/decryptedge/860) next level is /32K/28K!". Next dates: 11th(today), 17th and 27th April.

These dates do not tell you to buy or sell, but you can use it in your TA as a time factor for patterns, trends, etc. Rational action is to use the situation to gain positions or improve the entry price in the area of ​​​​support zones.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge #bitcoin #markets #dollar #oil #research
What is the Best Hedge Against Inflation? Thoughts on the market on 12.04.2022

Bitcoin continued to decline yesterday, setting a low below $39,140 then stabilized in the range of $39,400 - $39,800. At the time of writing this review, the price of Bitcoin is $40,154
Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.831 Trillion, BTC dominance index 41.1% and fear index of 20.

Oil held above $100, dollar index too peaked above $100.12. Inflation data will be released today. Forecast - 8.4%. If the data is above the forecast, and some tough statements by the Fed may collapse the stock markets. Fear in the markets adds to the understanding that this is not just inflation, which can be fought by raising rates. The astronomical external debt and the debt load of the population and the economy do not allow the full use of this tool. Record prices for raw materials and energy carriers against the backdrop of no less than record inflation threaten the economy to go into long-term stagflation.

Bitcoin broke through all the support levels indicated in yesterday's review, the last few hours it has stabilized above $39,500. I get the impression that the negative external background is being used by some well-informed market participants for a comfortable set of positions before some important events for Bitcoin. Perhaps this is a subjective opinion, we will soon find out.

Objectively - when the officially declared dollar inflation approaches double digits, fiat is the most toxic asset, and the prospects for Bitcoin are so clear that there is not even any intrigue.
Don Pliego understands everything correctly, a $$ billionaire. He is Mexico's Third Richest Billionaire and he warns of severe dollar Inflation — Says Buy Bitcoin to 'Save Your Skin' He gave the advice last week Thursday, at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, Florida. “What they are doing is making fake money out of thin air and loaning it out to create a purchasing power to the tune of, we’re now, $9 trillion of fake savings made by the Federal Reserve,” the billionaire described, adding: The creation of fake credit which equals purchasing power has been astounding. The problem is because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, can’t do anything about it. You can’t go out of the dollar — unless you go to bitcoin. FYI: The Billionaire bought his first Bitcoin in 2013, when it was worth around $200. (​​https://t.me/decryptedge/156)

For Bitcoin today, the support area is at $39,200 - $38,500. The priority option is the movement of the main cryptocurrency in a range with a lower boundary at this support area and an upper boundary at $41,500- $42,000. An alternative option is another breakthrough of the next support area at $38,200-$37,500. If Bitcoin fixes below $39,200, the alternative becomes a priority.

Today I carry out a poll: Below, What is the Best Hedge Against Inflation?

Wishing you a good afternoon ahead and remember this is not financial advice or investment recommendation. Must do your own research. #decryptedge
What is the Best Hedge Against Inflation?
Anonymous Poll
45%
Gold
9%
Stock & Commodities
45%
Cryptocurrencies
0%
Real Estate & REIT's
Mayai Pasua Index: Thoughts on the market on 13.04.2022

Bitcoin moved from the range of $39,220 to $40,690 at the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is trading for $39,740. Total Crypto Market capitalization at $1.860 Trillion, dominance index of 40.8% and fear index 25.

The data on consumer inflation came out, it turned out to be worse than the forecast, but not much (8.5% against the forecast of 8.4%). The market reacted and more so perhaps due to Biden's speech, who said that Putin is to blame for record inflation and rising prices for gasoline and everything else. Today there will be data on industrial inflation in the US (PPI), the data may significantly affect the markets.

To put into perspective the 8.5% inflation to the Kenyan context; For those who have tried the boiled egg delicacy. Usually sold/pedelled at high human traffic areas, around key malls, universities and business centers. I remember vividly back in 2012, somewhere around Nairobi, Westlands and several subsequent years enjoying these boiled eggs served with Kachumbari (salsa) and some ketchup(optional) or chili sauce to add to the taste. The flavors burst and melt inside your mouth and trust me, you will definitely go in for another kill. Sorry I digress, it would cost me Ksh10. Now, you have to part with Ksh25. So in simple terms using the analogy the higher the inflation rate..for instance the US has this now at 8.5%, the higher the mayai pasua sells for. I have literally seen the gradual rise from Ksh10, 15, 20 and now 25. Thats mayai pasua index for you. Without much jargon. The more you pay for the same goods/service the higher the inflation index.

The dollar index is confidently holding above 100, which is always bad for the markets. However, the S&P 500 futures are now showing a slight increase. Bitcoin held within the priority option. The lows were not updated, it was also not possible to go upwards beyond $40,690. The range with the lower border at $39,200 - $38,500 and the upper one at $41,500 - $42,000 remains a priority for today.

An alternative option is to go below the support area $39,200- $38,500, it is possible with an external negative. Looking back at Bitcoin’s price milestones, it has made parabolic move in just 10 consecutive days. Could one of those 10 days be coming soon? Speculating around Apple news, although this is not yet certain. The prospects for Bitcoin without Apple are beyond doubt.
There has been a lot of talk lately about how the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed will negatively affect Bitcoin.

That's all for today, I will post an update later today. Wishing you a good afternoon ahead and remember this is not financial advice or investment recommendation. Must do your own research. #decryptedge
⅓ Of Nigerian Adults Are Crypto Investors? Thoughts on the market on 14.04.2022

Bitcoin has been in the range of $39,600 - $41,550, for the last 10 hours, it has been held above $41,000, at the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is trading at $41,370.
Total Crypto Market capitalization of $1.922 Trillion, BTC dominance index at 40.9% and fear index 28.

The producer price index, which measures the prices paid by wholesalers(US market), increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a data series going back to November 2010. On a monthly basis, the gauge climbed 1.4%, above the 1.1% Dow Jones estimate and also a record. The prices that goods and services producers receive rose in March at the fastest pace since records have been kept, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday. Source: CNBC.

Double-digit inflation with maximum energy and food prices is a recession, and there are no monetary methods to combat it in this situation. The Fed's Bullard made another ominous statement about the need to raise the rate to a level that will significantly limit economic activity. He just did not explain how, at such a rate, the national debt of 30 trillion.

This problem has no economic solution. How they are trying to solve it using non-economic methods which, to put it briefly, consist in a simple formula - to make it worse everywhere. The dollar index is back below 100, the S&P 500 futures are in a minimal negative, oil is above $108, and gold is moving towards $2000.

Bitcoin worked out the priority variant of yesterday's review during the day. The price has approached the upper limit of the range indicated, while consolidating under the resistance area. The priority option for today is fixing above $42,000 - $42,200.
An alternative option is Bitcoin in the previous trading range (39200-38500 is the lower limit, $41,500 - $42,000 is the upper limit).

From the interesting - according to a report study by KuCoin exchange, titled: INTO THE
CRYPTOVERSE: DECODING THE WORLD OF CRYPTO CONSUMERS reveals 35% of Nigerian adults are crypto investors). That is a third of the adult population of Nigeria is already investing in cryptocurrencies. Inflation of national currencies and economic problems in developing countries increase interest in the crypto market. Due to limited access to affordable financial services, cryptocurrencies are thus becoming an alternative solution for the storage and transfer of assets. Last month the same exchange had a report, putting the number of crypto users in Africa in 2021 increased by 2500%. (https://t.me/decryptedge/1062). Full report shared below:

All data and info ought to be taken subjectively, beware of Selection biases that occur when looking at samples that are not representative of the population. This can happen organically when working with small sets of data, or when the sampling methodology is not truly randomized.

This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge