Minutes show Fed ready to Raise Rates, Shrink Balance Sheet Soon, Master-card Expands Consulting with Practices Dedicated to Crypto and Warren Buffett Invests $1B in Bitcoin-friendly Neobank, dumps Visa and Mastercard Stocks.

Thoughts on the market on 17.02.2022

Bitcoin was in the range of $44,200- $43,300 during the day. Attempts to go above $44,200 did not lead to success, the correction to below $43,500 was also quickly bought out and at the time of writing this review, bitcoin is trading around $43,950 - in the same place as a day ago.

Crypto Market capitalisation $1.984 Trillion,
BTC Dominance index:42.0,
Fear index :52.

So just to be clear these FOMC minutes are from the January meeting. What the market wants to see is if they can get an idea of the Fed's line of thinking going into March. Basically to see if the Fed will be really hawkish...or more dovish. It will be very likely hawkish & those rate increases will definitely be aggressive. The minutes will reflect that. If you paid attention in December 2021, you likely saw that the market reacted negatively to the Fed minutes. I see no reason that won't occur this time as well, especially considering the latest CPI & PPI.

For today, price may remain in the range of $43,500- $44,800. An alternative option - going below $42,800, with a possible test of $41,500 - is less likely. Further growth requires a return of capitalisation above $2 Trillion, overcoming the resistance area of $​​44,800- $45,600, updating the previous highs from 10th February above $45,800. It looks like these are plans for the next 10 days.

Interestingly, Mastercard Expands Consulting with Practices Dedicated to Crypto, Open Banking and ESG. The business world is facing an influx of innovation: changing consumer preferences, rapid digital transformation and geopolitical shifts. To help businesses evolve and supercharge their growth enterprise-wide, Mastercard today announced that it is expanding its preeminent payments-focused consulting service with new practices dedicated to Open Banking, Open Data, Crypto & Digital Currencies, and Environment, Social & Governance (ESG).

In contrast, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway dumped a portion of its Visa and Mastercard holdings and increased exposure in Nubank, the largest fintech bank in Brazil that's also popular among the country's Bitcoin investors. In a securities filing late Feb. 14, the industrial conglomerate disclosed that it had purchased $1 billion worth of Nubank Class A stock in Q4/2021. On the other hand, it sold $1.8 billion and $1.3 billion worth of Visa and Mastercard stock, respectively, singling a shift away from credit companies to gain exposure in their fintech rivals. Source: Cointelegraph.

It's amazing how investors can change their minds when they are wrong. Talk about money being indifferent.

This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge. Images Courtesy:

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Study: 68% of Americans Aware of Risks Involved With Cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has been on a decline, support at $41,500 did not resist, the main cryptocurrency set a local minimum around 40,088, at the time of writing this review, it is trading around $40,640

Market capitalisation $1.854 Trillion,
BTC Dominance Index: 41.7%,
Fear index 30.

Markets were pulled down by a combination of two factors. Firstly, the realisation that this time the Fed will turn on the money faucet and raise rates after a long and almost recoilless market growth, which can lead to its protracted fall.

Secondly, geopolitics pressed the markets yesterday. US Secretary of State, Blinken announced the imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, using a chemical attack as a pretext, and the subsequent capture of Kiev, and the British Department of Defence published a map of this invasion. Biden also joined the topic, stating the high probability of such a development of events.

Markets are irrational, and wonder what to do with the unsuccessful announcement of the previous "invasions" two days ago. Why hasn't the invasion happened, when will it happen?

Bitcoin in its fall somewhat surpassed the alternative option from yesterday's review. Support at $41,500 did not resist, the reaction to the level, which we spoke about, turned out to be negative, price reached the lows of February 4, after which there was a rebound to 40500-40700, and stabilisation at these levels. The fear index, after a short stay in the neutral zone, returned to values ​​that show that the market is dominated by fear and uncertainty.

What will happen next? A return above $41,500 is still a priority option. If this does not happen within the next 6-8 hours, the option of descending towards 38200 becomes a priority. Does this change anything in the medium term for Bitcoin? Important dates for BTC and performance as we had shared here: https://t.me/decryptedge/952

21 Jan (price breakdown to $40k after 13 Days of holding above it) dumped by -15%
3 Feb was a price action day, followed by + 12% pump next day on 4 Feb!
13 Feb was price action day then BTC pumped by +7% a day later.

We shared this dates above since 12 Jan 2022 , Next dates: 21 Feb, 3 Mar
17 Mar (FOMC Day) and 21 Mar

Lastly, nearly seven out of ten surveyed Americans said they were aware of risks that are associated with cryptocurrencies, a new study by Nordvpn has found. However, about 32% of the respondents said they were not aware of any risks. Despite being knowledgeable about cryptocurrencies, the surveyed Americans still expressed their uneasiness over the prospect of these digital currencies “becoming the standard for online purchases.” Source: news.bitcoin.com

Ps: These dates do not tell you to buy or sell, but you can use it in your TA as a time factor for patterns, trends, etc. This is not traditional investment advice, and ought not to be considered as financial recommendation. Must always do your own research. #decryptedge

California No. 1 Most ‘Crypto-Ready’ State.

California is considering adopting Bitcoin as a means of payment for public services. ​​A Bill Introduced by Senator Kamlager on February 18, 2022 titled: The State agencies: cryptocurrency. The bill states that existing law establishes state agencies for various purposes, including to provide certain services to the public for which payment is required.

The bill would authorise a state agency to accept cryptocurrency as a method of payment for the provision of government services. It was voted on and enacted that California may accept cryptocurrency as a method of payment for the provision of government services. This bill was voted on and passed. For clarification this does not make #Bitcoin legal tender but just a provision medium that potentially allows people to pay tax in crypto. One thing for sure though, it makes California the No. 1 Most ‘Crypto-Ready’ State and one the road to making bitcoin legal tender, at-least.

Bitcoin again updated a low of $37,900 over the weekend, then during yesterday's session it consolidated around 38200-38300, after which it returned above $39K and is now trading around $39,100.

Total Crypto Market Capitalisation $1.778 Trillion,
BTC Dominance index 41.7%,
Fear index 25..

The news about the imminent meeting between Blinken and Lavrov, and possibly Putin and Biden, brought some positivity to the markets. The main factor that will affect the markets this week is the situation around the unrecognised republics of Donbass, and the imminent Russian "invasion" of Ukraine.

A probable scenario of the week in the stock markets is growth on the realisation that the expected horrors will not happen. The main thing is that there should be no large-scale provocation that can make the situation truly unpredictable. There is no trading on the American market today, so the impact of this factor on the crypto market will be less significant.

Over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin worked out of the zone of stops and liquidations of margin positions, and some impressionable participants again fear and expect a crypto-winter on the market. In the case of an unfavourable external background, will confirm our bearish bias to $32K/23K(https://t.me/decryptedge/952) . The combination of geopolitics, possible negative from the Fed, and even the expected attempts to regulate cryptocurrencies from Biden (expected this week), can really bring down the market. Talk about expectations not aligned.

For today, the priority option is a return to the range of $39-41K or alternative - local lows in the range of $36,800- $35,500

Bitcoin again updated lows around $36,340 during the day, after which there was a rebound to $36,500- $36,600, where it is trading at the time of writing this review.

Total Crypto Market capitalization $1.646 Trillion,
BTC Dominance index 42.1%,
Fear index 20.

Stock markets are under pressure from geopolitics. Indices are falling, oil, gold, silver, platinum are selectively growing. Gold reached levels where it has not been since 2020, oil also updated local highs, then corrected slightly. This is with the background of Russia recognizing the republics of Donbass, concluded agreements on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance.

It is now unlikely that the Ukrainian authorities will consider it a good idea to attack Russian units of the regular army, especially after Biden directly told Zelensky to resolve the issue exclusively through diplomacy. Russia recognized the republics of Donbass within the borders actually established now (along the demarcation line), and not within the historical borders, as recommended by the Security Council, i.e. there will be no offensive from Russia.

There will be statements from the West, concerns and sanctions. Perhaps Ukraine will be given money and support (most likely, moral). The tension in the Donbass will now subside, because one side (Ukraine) does not have the ability to change the status quo, and the other (Russia) does not have such intentions.

With that the stock markets may stop falling today, and possibly move to growth.The bottom of the S&P 500 at 4100-4200. Futures on the S&P 500 are stabilizing after falling, the dollar index is about 96.180.

Bitcoin held up well in the morning yesterday, went above $39K and confidently worked out the priority option from yesterday's review.

Some negative sentiments from some famous people (Buterin and Du Jun, co-owner of the Hyobi exchange), who announced the imminent onset of a long bear market. Nassim Taleb also appeared on the stage again. The one who called bitcoin owners idiots back in the summer of 2020. Elon Musk will be on the scene soon. Such bearish comments are hardly welcome at this point in time. Never project your bias against the market or to fit a narrative. We called the bear market 3 months ago.

For today, the priority option for Bitcoin is movement in the range of $35,800- $38,800.
An alternative option is a correction to $​​33800 - $32800 which should not come as a surprise.

This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge. Images Courtesy:

Russia’s Finance Ministry Submits Bill to Legalise Crypto Investments, Ban Payments

Thoughts on the market on 23.02.2022

Bitcoin did not update its local lows during the day but 2 attempts to go above $38K which has since succeeded and is currently trading at $38,068.

Total Crypto Market capitalisation $1.707 Trillion,
BTC Dominance index: 41.9%,
Fear index 25.
Dollar Index near 96.

Bitcoin worked out the priority option from yesterday’s review, for today I see the range $36,200- $38,500 as a priority option for today. Alternative - is a renewal of local lows around 35500-35000, further depends on the reaction to this level.

At the height of Russia geopolitics and looming sanctions, The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has presented to the federal government in Moscow legislation tailored to fill the regulatory gaps in the country’s crypto space, remaining after last year’s enforcement of the law “On Digital Financial Assets.” The Treasury Department and the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) were tasked by the government to develop the new legal framework together. However, as the two institutions have supported opposing approaches, last week the ministry suggested the adoption of two laws to regulate the crypto market while media reports revealed the monetary authority had been working on its own bills to implement its proposal for a wide-ranging ban on crypto activities.

Under the new law, the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment will remain prohibited, one of the few common positions with the CBR, and they will be regarded mainly as an investment tool. The ministry confirmed it had received Bank of Russia’s legislative amendments, noting that those which don’t contradict its approach will be considered.

There’s more than what meets the eye, I talked about it here(https://t.me/decryptedge/1004)
Russia is going on the offence, not afraid to step into crypto space. Lastly the case for bitcoin as a sort of "Digital gold" has broken down as more institutional investors have started to trade it, and cryptocurrency is becoming more closely aligned with fluctuations in traditional markets like equities.

This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge. Images Courtesy:

Bitcoin Price Nosedives After Putin Declares War on Ukraine.

Thoughts on the Crypto-market on 24.02.2022

Bitcoin showed a good short lived growth yesterday, not only worked out the priority option, but also left the upward range, reaching local highs above $39,200. Before the geopolitical factor turned on again, Bitcoin went below $35K and is now trading around $34,700- $34800.

Total Crypto Market capitalisation: $1.586 Trillion,
BTC dominance index 41.7%,
Fear index 23.

Stock markets too fell yesterday, US indices sank about 2% on average, S&P 500 closed at 4225. So far, everyone has forgotten about inflation and the Fed, and they don’t remember about the coronavirus at all. Markets are now driven by news from Ukraine, so today they will obviously look for the bottom. We talked about a bottom for the S&P500 in the area of ​​4100-4000, in case of a strong aggravation of the situation may see it at 3800.

On the Russian market, the fall will be stronger, as, most likely, new sanctions will be included. These sanctions are unlikely to affect energy resources and how to pay for them, since oil today is clearly aimed at reaching the 100 mark. Scores of people are now exiting the city of Kiev, there are many kilometers of traffic jams are leaving the city, via @The Insider reports.

I like what Economist Jason Furman, a former advisor to President Barack Obama, said this week, “Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas. It’s basically a big gas station.” With supply chains already stretched thin and inflation on the rise globally, an energy shortage will only add to the worries of businesses and consumers alike. Although Bitcoin is often touted as a hedge against inflation and economic certainties, it's introduction to traditional finance means that its price movements are increasingly correlated to stock markets. Lest we forget Bitcoin has lost almost half its value since its November high of $68,990.

Bitcoin, even against such a background, did not reach the lows of January this year and is now trying to return above $35K. If this attempt is successful and the Bitcoin returns to the previous range of $36,500- $38,800, then a return above $40K is a matter of a few days. But not with the current background of news.

In this case, we expect a bias of Bitcoin below $35K, and an update of the January lows, a test of the $30- $32K zone. We talked about it here(https://t.me/decryptedge/1016).


This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge. Images Courtesy: decrypt.co

Mexican Senator Aims to Introduce Bitcoin Legal Tender Bill, as Mexico’s third-richest man says Buy Low.

Thoughts on the market on 25.02.2022.

It seems that the markets are calming down after yesterday's shock, everything has already happened, the markets have reacted, the worsening of the situation can only be in the event of an increase in the number of participants in the conflict, which is not realistic but probable.

The Russian stock market registered a record drop of almost 50%. The situation will clearly be a shock for new market participants who massively came to it in 2020-2021 and greatly worsened the quality of the audience.

Please note that coronapsychosis, omicron is now history, no one remembers it anymore. But we cannot forget about the record inflation of the dollar. I think that this topic will determine the mood of the markets in the coming months. I hope that within the next 10-15 days we will hear good news from Ukraine.

Bitcoin yesterday not only did not break through the bottom and did not update the January lows, but also moved to a steady growth. Large purchases threw the price back above 40300. Then a rollback followed, and for the last 4 hours Bitcoin has been trading in the range of $38,200- $39,000. Talk about volatility.

Total Crypto Market capitalization $1.726 Trillion,
BTC Dominance index 42.6%,
Fear index 27.
Dollar index after reaching highs above 97.7 is declining to 96.83.

Interestingly, after the success of El Salvador, which, after the full legalization of Bitcoin, received a previously unseen GDP growth of 10.3%, Mexico wants to do the same.
Mexican senator for the State of Nuevo León, Indira Kempis, has stated that she wants to make the country second after El Salvador to adopt Bitcoin. However, the chances of this actually happening are slim at best. “We need bitcoin to be legal tender in Mexico, because if it is not so, if we do not make that decision as El Salvador did, it is very difficult to take action.”

The central bank also plans to roll out a digital Peso by 2024, as reported by @CryptoPotato.
Mexico’s third-richest man, Ricardo Salinas Pliego,(https://t.me/decryptedge/156) thinks otherwise and has doubled down on previous Bitcoin statements. Over the weekend, he tweeted, “You have to buy bitcoin (keep buying when the price is low), then just hold your BTC, forget about selling … Trust me, you’re going to thank me later.”

Wishing you a great day ahead and remember to always do your own research. This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge

ECB Wants Quick Action on Crypto Regulation Following Russian Sanctions And BitConnect Founder in $2.5Billion Case Charged.

In case you missed it, the ECB Wants Quick Action on Crypto Regulation Following Russian Sanctions. ECB parliament yesterday postponed a vote on a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Speaking to the press following a meeting of the EU's Economic and Financial Affairs Council, ECB President Christine Lagarde said it's "critically important" for the so-called MiCA legislation to be pushed through as soon as possible. Source: Coindesk.

In other news, the US Justice Department Indicts BitConnect Founder. The federal grand jury charged BitConnect founder Satish Kumbhani with defrauding investors of some $2.4 billion through its lending scheme. ​​“As cryptocurrency gains popularity and attracts investors worldwide, alleged fraudsters like Kumbhani are utilizing increasingly complex schemes to defraud investors, oftentimes stealing millions of dollars,” quoting the agents involved in the case. “However, make no mistake, our agency will continue our long tradition of following the money, whether physical or digital, to expose criminal schemes and hold the fraudsters accountable for their illegal acts of trickery and deceit.”

Crime, particularly crime involving digital currencies, continues to transcend international boundaries,” said Assistant Attorney General Kenneth A. What is commendable is the department’s commitment to protecting victims, preserving market integrity, and strengthening its global partnerships to hold accountable criminals engaging in cryptocurrency fraud.

With Bitcoin gaining a foothold above $40K last night, it also saw rollback from $40,400. At the time of writing the review, the price is trading around $39,400 - $39,500.

Assumptions that the market had already reacted to the Ukrainian events were justified, and the bottom of the S&P 500 turned out to be exactly where we mentioned 4100 - 4000 range. It closed at 4114.

Total Crypto Market capitalisation: $1.798 Trillion,
BTC Dominance index: 41.8%,
Fear index 26.

Over the weekend, expect further attempts to gain a foothold above 40K, which, most likely, will lead to success. This is the priority option.

The alternative - falling below 38200 - will delay taking 40K for a while. This option is less likely, but possible if the next attempt to take 40K does not lead to success. In the case of working out the priority option, altcoins will also show significant growth.

This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge. Images Courtesy:

Thoughts on the market on 28.02.2022

Bitcoin was in the range of $39,850- $36,934 over the weekend, attempts to take $40K did not succeed, at the time of writing this review, it is trading around $37,600.

Total Crypto Market Capitalization $1.718 Trillion.
BTC dominance index 41.8%,
Fear index 20%.

S&P 500 futures are already in the red by more than 2.5%, the dollar index is rising, and has now reached the levels of June 2020, approaching 97.3. Oil and metals are growing significantly, in anticipation of a shortage in the market due to possible difficulties in settlements with Russia.

Oil is still below 100. But it won't be for long. Although I do not rule out the possibility that our Western "friends" will now quickly lift sanctions from Iran in order to officially bring its oil to the market, and will put pressure on OPEC for the same purpose.
Russia's Central Bank has banned brokers from carrying out orders from foreign companies or individuals to sell securities. This is a reserve lock, most likely trading on the Russian markets today will be closed or limited.

Bitcoin worked out an alternative version of the review, and failed to overcome the resistance area. Against the backdrop of what is happening in the stock markets, the asset maintains an amazing resilience. Many are aware of the scale of what is happening, and the flow of fiat to crypto will increase. Also expect an outflow of funds from crypto exchanges, due to talk about blocking clients from Russia and Belarus. A total block has been introduced so far by several small exchanges. Many will prefer to withdraw funds from large exchanges before the situation is clarified. This will increase the resistance of the crypto market to a fall, as it will reduce sales under the influence of emotions.

The market for services related to money transfers outside the banking system will also grow strongly. Services that can properly provide these services will be at a great position.

Today expect Bitcoin is in the range of $36,500- $39,800. An alternative option is fixing above 40K. Can we fall below? Yes, what is happening now in the financial markets is unparalleled, hence everything is possible and be prepared even for unlikely options.

China’s Supreme Court now adds fuel to the fire after the Russian military attacks on Ukraine slipped the crypto market cap to $1.5 trillion. The court declared that crypto-fundraising illegal and determined jail time and fines for suspected persons. To be clear, the new bill announced on Thursday is an amendment to previous legislative documents regarding cryptocurrency transactions, and it will come into force by 1st March. In this ruling, one of the amendments in section no. 8 of Article 2 identifies “illegal fundraising by way of online lending, investment in shares, and virtual currency transactions.”

This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge. Images Courtesy:

Ukraine Government Turns to Crypto to Crowdfund Millions of Dollars, $22.8Million Raised So Far!

A lot of money is leaving the sufficiency of sanctions in crypto, and the process is just beginning and expanding. Many ordinary people who kept 200- 500K euros in a foreign bank are looking towards crypto, because they do not have confidence in the safety of their funds and the ability to manage them. Sanctions pressure is growing, several Russian banks have been disconnected from Mastercard. Sanctions against Russia are not supported by China, whose Foreign Ministry said that "unilateral sanctions could interfere with a political settlement in Ukraine" and "China and Russia will continue normal trade cooperation."

The most interesting thing is happening now in the crypto market. Bitcoin worked out an alternative version of yesterday’s review fixing above 40K, after which it overcame the resistance area of ​​$41,800- $42,400. It is not so much the fact of growth that is important here - it was understandable and expected. The important thing is that this happened in a falling stock market.

The priority option for Bitcoin today is continued growth and an attempt to gain a foothold above $45K. What happens next depends on the results of this attempt. An alternative option is a rollback to $41,400- $41,200. Bitcoin dominance is growing, unless there is a quick take of $45k and further growth, altcoins will quickly catch up.

Market capitalization $1.904 Trillion,
BTC dominance index 42.9%,
Fear index 51.
The dollar index: 96.8

The main risk on the crypto market now is where Russian money goes, not only we know. This process can increase pressure on large crypto exchanges and tighten KYC / AML. There will be keen and close attention to Russian accounts in any case. Therefore, many are working ahead of the curve, withdrawing crypto from exchanges until the situation is cleared up, which is also good for the growth of crypto assets.

The Ukrainian government – and NGOs providing support to the military – have raised $22.8 million through more than 24,000 cryptoasset donations since the start of the Russian invasion. One NGO received a single Bitcoin donation worth $3 million. The majority of donations received to date have been in Bitcoin and Ether, although US dollar stablecoins contribute a significant proportion. But it’s not only cryptoassets that are being donated; people are also sending NFTs to the Ukrainian government’s Ethereum account. One such NFT has a value of approximately $300.

Scammers also appear to be taking advantage of the current situation by tricking unsuspecting users wishing to donate to Ukrainian causes. Elliptic has identified a number of fraudulent crypto fundraising scams which are exploiting the current situation. So be ware.

This is not traditional investment advice and ought not to be deemed as financial recommendation. Must do your own research. #Decryptedge. Images Courtesy: