"find people who are just as sick in the head as you are".
Quote from the tweet below. Hehe.
Last opportunity. Clock is ticking, anon.
https://x.com/spacexbt/status/1983609844868190629?t=rnfgUvd7-gAuRUkyl_n8Eg&s=19
Quote from the tweet below. Hehe.
Last opportunity. Clock is ticking, anon.
https://x.com/spacexbt/status/1983609844868190629?t=rnfgUvd7-gAuRUkyl_n8Eg&s=19
X (formerly Twitter)
space ฮ (@spacexbt) on X
weโre entering the final stretch, you can feel it in the air the kind of silence before everything flips
2 to 4 months from now, some of you will be free the rest will still be coping, blaming timing, blaming luck
if you waste this last window out of comfortโฆ
2 to 4 months from now, some of you will be free the rest will still be coping, blaming timing, blaming luck
if you waste this last window out of comfortโฆ
๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ:
BTC underperforming equities hard. for no unambiguously reason. thought about that a lot today. possible explanations are china selling corn to weaken Trump/ US who are pushing stablecoins hard, OG whales selling because of 4-year cycle is near its end and the original vision of "we sell the coins to the bankers" has become fulfilled, black friday crash carried a lot of people out on a stretcher, possible miner capitulation / pivot to ai data centers (no hard evidence in the data for this), stocks mooning and equally easy access for retail as crypto and they don't have the fight the KOL rapists and fnf bundlers over there. probably a combination of all the above.
that said, i stopped believing in the 4-year cycle theory a long time ago and all of the other factors shall pass over time. supply overhang will get cleared at some point and after a couple of green candles the majority of the "lets pivot to stocks" crowd will be back with twitter posts about how they bought the pico bottom. not capitulating on my long here. i believe in the thesis. invalidation would be a weekly close below 98k. in this case i would exit all positions. until this doesn't become a reality i will just endure the infinity chop. HYPE and PUMP the strongest on my watchlist today, will keep holding these as well. job's not finished.
on-chain is Aids as usual. am down on every single buy. ceilings are getting lower and lower. after ai every meta that followed had a smaller ceiling and a shorter shelf-life. i don't see this trend reversing anytime soon and i don't think we will see billion-dollar on-chain runners in the foreseeable future. outside capital is not coming in. we are alone here.
outside capital didn't come in during ai meta as well. it was also just us buying in anticipation / pipe dream of outside capital coming in. difference was that market participants had a lot more money. now they been raped most of the year and black friday crash took most of the perps traders out as well. so many people are either toast or completely fed up with this shit. and why would they download phantom app when they just can buy stocks on Robinhood which has a similar good UI and similar little friction. plus the added benefit of not having to fight fnf people, bundlers, ruggers and being forced to carry additional security risks like hacks.
look at x402 meta, we have 2 types of coins. old stuff that is resurrected and fresh deploys that got spun up in a day. problem i find with these old coins that were dead and now getting resurrected is that fundamentals donโt change in a day. people say โdev is building for a yearโ but forget that these things couldnโt find pmf in all this time. this opens up the door for KOLs and fnf groups to scan for dead charts, corner supply and start posting and praising it as the next big thing on the timeline and then rape it. fresh coins have increased rug risk and the bundlers and are equally rape infested. the pond is getting smaller.
i am still playing (and losing, for now) but with a small fraction of my capital. not willing to fire 100k into a token now like i used to do. the days were late-early buyers who stepped in with size were rewarded are long gone. this style of trading doesn't work anymore in the current on-chain climate. its a rotators market with low ceilings. people say "just adapt and do the same" but they forget one thing. when top-blasters and believers constantly get punished then they will step out at some point and this leads to ceilings become even lower and rotations to become even faster. the results is a race to the bottom.
BTC underperforming equities hard. for no unambiguously reason. thought about that a lot today. possible explanations are china selling corn to weaken Trump/ US who are pushing stablecoins hard, OG whales selling because of 4-year cycle is near its end and the original vision of "we sell the coins to the bankers" has become fulfilled, black friday crash carried a lot of people out on a stretcher, possible miner capitulation / pivot to ai data centers (no hard evidence in the data for this), stocks mooning and equally easy access for retail as crypto and they don't have the fight the KOL rapists and fnf bundlers over there. probably a combination of all the above.
that said, i stopped believing in the 4-year cycle theory a long time ago and all of the other factors shall pass over time. supply overhang will get cleared at some point and after a couple of green candles the majority of the "lets pivot to stocks" crowd will be back with twitter posts about how they bought the pico bottom. not capitulating on my long here. i believe in the thesis. invalidation would be a weekly close below 98k. in this case i would exit all positions. until this doesn't become a reality i will just endure the infinity chop. HYPE and PUMP the strongest on my watchlist today, will keep holding these as well. job's not finished.
on-chain is Aids as usual. am down on every single buy. ceilings are getting lower and lower. after ai every meta that followed had a smaller ceiling and a shorter shelf-life. i don't see this trend reversing anytime soon and i don't think we will see billion-dollar on-chain runners in the foreseeable future. outside capital is not coming in. we are alone here.
outside capital didn't come in during ai meta as well. it was also just us buying in anticipation / pipe dream of outside capital coming in. difference was that market participants had a lot more money. now they been raped most of the year and black friday crash took most of the perps traders out as well. so many people are either toast or completely fed up with this shit. and why would they download phantom app when they just can buy stocks on Robinhood which has a similar good UI and similar little friction. plus the added benefit of not having to fight fnf people, bundlers, ruggers and being forced to carry additional security risks like hacks.
look at x402 meta, we have 2 types of coins. old stuff that is resurrected and fresh deploys that got spun up in a day. problem i find with these old coins that were dead and now getting resurrected is that fundamentals donโt change in a day. people say โdev is building for a yearโ but forget that these things couldnโt find pmf in all this time. this opens up the door for KOLs and fnf groups to scan for dead charts, corner supply and start posting and praising it as the next big thing on the timeline and then rape it. fresh coins have increased rug risk and the bundlers and are equally rape infested. the pond is getting smaller.
i am still playing (and losing, for now) but with a small fraction of my capital. not willing to fire 100k into a token now like i used to do. the days were late-early buyers who stepped in with size were rewarded are long gone. this style of trading doesn't work anymore in the current on-chain climate. its a rotators market with low ceilings. people say "just adapt and do the same" but they forget one thing. when top-blasters and believers constantly get punished then they will step out at some point and this leads to ceilings become even lower and rotations to become even faster. the results is a race to the bottom.
With the way crypto is trading we might have to go out to "trick or treat" for food
sorry guys, I hope you see some humor in the shitposting.
it is basically my way of coping with the market when it's down only
it is basically my way of coping with the market when it's down only
maybe iโm just naive but iโm a firm believer that trading, at its heart, is basically the art of allocating capital to where the world needs it
if you think that the world needs more of something, you long it.
and if you think it needs less of it, you short it.
if youโre right, the world allocates more capital to you so that you can go on to help the world allocate even more capital.
and vice versa
maybe that is why iโve been so bearish crypto this year
if you think that the world needs more of something, you long it.
and if you think it needs less of it, you short it.
if youโre right, the world allocates more capital to you so that you can go on to help the world allocate even more capital.
and vice versa
maybe that is why iโve been so bearish crypto this year
I remember 2 years ago when we used to joke that Monad and MegaETH would launch at the start of the bear market.
Looks like it is about to come true
Looks like it is about to come true