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Morning update ⏰

πŸ‘¨β€πŸ’»REITs and Technology: Beneficiaries of Fed pivot


US bond yields fell, stocks recovered as inflation woes ease further after December headline and core CPI declined from the previous month, in-line with expectations. We like REITs as yields fall, and are selective on technology on a weaker global demand outlook. Find out our top REIT and tech picks.

https://go.dbs.com/3IGRnHx

πŸ‘·β€β™‚οΈSIA Engineering: Expect core earnings turnaround and accelerated recovery

China’s lifting of its international border restrictions on 8 January will accelerate SIE’s journey towards a complete recovery. We believe China’s 40% contribution to intra-APAC travel is key to full recovery. What other catalysts do we foresee for SIE?

https://go.dbs.com/3IGRnHx

πŸ”»USD Rates: Inflation sufficient for another Fed downshift

US Treasuries rallied sharply post CPI with yield curve belly tenors benefitting from a benign inflation. Headline and core CPI were in line with consensus at -0.1% m-o-m and 0.3% m-o-m respectively. We believe it's no longer convincing for the Fed to insist on hiking rates to weaken the labour market in order to cool off rampant inflation. Find out why.

https://go.dbs.com/3GXSgdz
🎊 Enjoy the festivities, but stay sober

Heading into 2023, there are significant concerns of a global recession or slowdown, as inflation and interest rates remain elevated. But we are optimistic about the release of pent-up demand amid the first Lunar New Year, Tet, Song Kran, Lebaran festive period with travel and domestic restrictions eased across the region 🏯

With COVID behind us and economic uncertainties ahead, we have identified 3 key themes that will be relevant for Asean consumer plays in 2023. Find out what they are.
Morning update ⏰

🌀️ 7 Singapore reopening stocks to watch

Asean's position to welcome Chinese tourists without restrictions at a time of COVID retaliation measures between China, South Korea and Japan will channel pent up Chinese travel demand to this region. We have identified 7 reopening stocks to watch ahead of the results season, which we also think will continue doing well going into 1H23. Find out who they are.

https://go.dbs.com/3XsX4gq

🚧 iFAST Corporation: Hiccup in major ePension project

The schedule for the Hong Kong Pension platform commencement will be delayed for eight months from the original plan. iFAST maintained guidance as the group has provided buffer for delay. Nonetheless, a delay could lead to further increase in operating costs and push back in revenue recognition. Will we see share price weakness?

https://go.dbs.com/3QHep32
πŸ§‘β€πŸ³ Easing COVID-19 restrictions a game changer

The end of China's zero-COVID policy has sent a positive signal to the restaurant industry. A Datassential survey suggests that as the economy reopens, consumption would extend from buying goods to also consuming more services, while the willingness to splurge on travel and dining out is high 🍜

We expect survivors of the pandemic to see stronger sales recovery due to lessened market competition and more catalysts ahead. Find out our top picks in the restaurant sector.
Morning update ⏰

πŸ›« Singapore Airlines: Stock just broke multi-year resistance


The group delivered better-than-expected operational metrics in December on the back of robust passenger traffic and load factors across all route regions. Recently, its share price rose above multi-year resistance on good volume. Is it time to take profit?

https://go.dbs.com/3H9XIu1

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ RMB’s appreciation takes a pause

The renminbi (RMB) depreciated 0.6% against the USD overnight as investors took profit ahead of today’s GDP report and next week’s Lunar New Year holidays. We expect GDP to grow 2.4% y-o-y (vs 1.6% consensus) in 4Q22, leaving full-year expansion at 2.9% for 2022. Can China surpass 5% growth in 2023?

https://go.dbs.com/3XioFkL
🏦 Treasury bills, or T-bills, were all the rage in late 2022, given their safe-haven status amid an uncertain market. They are short-term government bonds that pay a fixed interest rate.

πŸ‘¨β€βš–οΈ With the Monetary Authority of Singapore opening the auction for 6-month T-bills tomorrow, 18 Jan, is it still worth the hype?

Find out what our rates strategist says.

Learn more about T-bills here.
Morning update ⏰

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¬ Equity Picks: Aiming for record-high returns


The much earlier-than-anticipated China reopening and developing signals of tapering inflation have benefited Singapore Equity Picks. The time weighted rate of return since inception of 136.7% aims to surpass its previous record high and smashes STI’s 11.48% return. Find out what changes have been made to the model portfolio over the last month.

https://go.dbs.com/3QMomw6

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­Cyclical hopes and structural frustrations at Davos

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, the buzzword was polycrisis. China’s reopening hopes and an impending end to the global hike cycle this quarter cushioned earlier global hard landing fears. Despite the cyclical hopes, frustration was apparent over structural issues, namely de-globalisation. What does this mean for interest rates and currencies?

https://go.dbs.com/3GLLmXD
🧳 Visitor arrivals to double in 2023 from 2022
 
Reopening stocks are expected to extend their strong recovery momentum into 2023/24, according to Singapore Tourism Board's latest forecast. Tourism activity is on track to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, with positive data points including longer average stays, improved tourism receipts, and higher airfaresπŸ’Ί
 
We have identified three categories of stocks that we believe are likely to benefit. Find out what they are.
Morning update ⏰

β™ŸοΈSingapore: How to position as US slows while China grows?

US economic slowdown/recession worries return after industrial production and retail sales disappointed, while China reiterated its focus on growth at the Davos World Economic Forum. This reinforces our tilt towards reopening beneficiaries and selected tech names. Find out our top picks.

https://go.dbs.com/3XE5xO6

πŸ”»Falling inflation converging with growth risks

In December, US industrial production was weaker than expected and capacity utilisation fell. Currency markets are finding it challenging because falling inflation is converging with growth risks in the US. Will US dollar weaken further?

https://go.dbs.com/3J2yPSj
πŸ›οΈ Mainland tourists to drive retail sales rebound

The earlier-than-expected return of Mainland tourists will see better earnings prospects across their favourite segments – travel, luxuries and cosmeticsπŸ’„

Which 3 retailers will benefit from revenge travel and spending? Find out in our full report.
Morning update ⏰

πŸ›« Singapore Airlines: Boosted by China's reopening

We expect SIA’s passenger traffic to normalise at a quicker pace on China's earlier-than-anticipated reopening, and passenger volumes to climb back to pre-crisis levels in 2QFY24. With macroeconomic headwinds adversely affecting its cargo segment, will the rebound in passenger revenue be enough to offset the decline?

https://go.dbs.com/3Xo7wX7

🏘️ GuocoLand: On track to meet full-year target?

1H23 revenue grew 46% y-o-y to S$661.6m, around around 55% of our full-year estimate. This was thanks to healthy residential property sales and a rise in rental income. Are there other catalysts ahead that can drive earnings?

https://go.dbs.com/3GWqXir
✈️ Regional Airlines: Prepare for take-off!

We predict global air traffic to reach 95-100% and 105-110% of pre-pandemic levels in 4Q23 and 4Q24, respectively. Coupled with China's reopening, we expect airlines in Asia to report substantially stronger earnings over FY23-24F. This is underpinned by a largely constructive macroeconomic environment and the release of pent-up travel demand 🌏

Despite recent outperformance, we believe there is still room for more upside on selected names with inexpensive valuation and promising earnings outlook. Find out who they are.
Morning update ⏰

πŸ‡ Suntec REIT: Hop on for a peaceful Rabbit Year ahead

4Q22 saw a strong recovery but it was offset by higher interest costs and higher management fees in cash (50% vs 20% in FY21). Suntec City rental reversions doubled in 4Q22 and portfolio valuation held relatively stable, supported by Singapore assets. Find out what else is on the cards.

https://go.dbs.com/3Xzo91T
 
πŸ’Έ Singapore: Growth concerns versus inflation fears

This morning, the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) was 0.3% above the mid-point of its policy band – a sign that growth worries have started to eclipse those of inflation. Will today's CPI inflation numbers see the Monetary Authority of Singapore adjust the SGD NEER policy band in the near future?

https://go.dbs.com/3H8GhbR
πŸ™πŸ» New year, renewed hope
 
After a challenging 2022, during which property market distress and struggles with the pandemic sapped economic momentum and hurt consumer sentiment considerably, stars are aligning for a much better 2023 for China πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
 
This is critical for the mainland, but also a potentially major positive for the global economy. Just how big of an impact can China's reopening bring? Find out in our full report.
Morning update ⏰

πŸ›οΈ Paragon REIT: Starting off on the right foot

 
We expect Singapore's tourism sector to see a lift as China reopens its borders. Paragon REIT is a prime beneficiary of increasing tourist spending with the largest exposure to Orchard retail. As tourist arrivals see full year traction in 2023, we foresee 3 catalysts to boost top line revenue for Paragon Mall. Find out what they are.
 
https://go.dbs.com/3Y00M1g
πŸŒ‹2022 was rocked by geopolitical uncertainties, escalating inflation, rapidly rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions. While we do not expect these uncertainties to disappear overnight, we see a better year ahead for regional equities. 
 
🧠Find out our best Singapore and Hong Kong investment ideas for 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF1JqU8so8w
 
Check out our playlist for more videos! πŸŽ₯
https://go.dbs.com/SmartInvestingMadeEasy
Morning update ⏰

πŸ’°Which Singapore stocks benefit from China's decisive reopening?

 
An end to sudden lockdowns and supply chain disruptions is positive even as near-term uncertainties may persist. The Chinese government's pro-growth shift to revive domestic demand encourages a swift resumption of economic activities. We see 4 Singapore stocks with operations in China that stand out. 
 
https://go.dbs.com/3wRWfCR
 
πŸ“ˆ Mapletree Industrial Trust: Organic growth dials up
 
MINT reported a 5% y-o-y rise in 3QFY23 gross revenues and net property income, mainly driven by organic improvement of its Singapore portfolio. Distribution per unit increased 3% q-o-q, boosted by the release of retained capital. Have the REIT's income visibility and strong financial metrics been priced in fully?
 
https://go.dbs.com/3Jk8HCI
 
πŸ–₯️ Intel’s weakness spells uncertainty for AEM

Expect selling pressure on AEM after key customer Intel’s shares sank more than 9% in afterhours trading on lower-than-consensus 4Q results and a weaker-than-expected outlook. What are the overhangs to watch for AEM?

https://go.dbs.com/3kGTzF3

πŸ’΅ USD finds support from resilient US GDP
 
DXY bounced off the low of its 101.5 to 103 range. US 4Q GDP growth was remarkably resilient, rising 2.9%; consensus expected growth to slow to 2.6%. Will tonight’s US personal consumption expenditures inflation provide another reason for the Fed to keep hiking rates?

https://go.dbs.com/3wx0qn4
We asked, you answered πŸ’¬ 77% of you responded you want to invest better in 2023. If you are wondering how to start, we have just the thing for you! 
 
Over the past year, our Singapore Equity Picks logged a time weighted rate of return (TWRR) of 11.2% versus the STI's flat return πŸ“Š What's more staggering is that since the model stock portfolio's inception in 22 July 2016, its TWRR now stands at 136.7% (versus the STI's 11.48%) as of 17 January!
 
Click here to find out what stocks are included.