ucl today, writing a new post with my bets

too much liqudity on ucl these days, 550k on the first buy order...

really crazy times, happy to be here

breakdown for today's ucl

https://x.com/0xd1namit/status/1998767691138572599?s=20

just created X for my project

https://x.com/Poly_Helper

sending only here for now

https://polymarket.com/event/time-2025-person-of-the-year/will-another-personthing-be-times-person-of-the-year-for-2025-523?tid=1765405910464

easy bond here

my strat for almanak listing

first i look at the listing price and then buy No on this price on Polymarket

https://polymarket.com/event/almanak-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch?tid=1765453519512&via=d1namit

also 50m yes looks good imo

it played out
bought 120m No at 81

i'm thinking to buy more now

another hint about what we're building

https://x.com/0xd1namit/status/1999465244180042013?s=20

https://polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-lighter-airdrop-be?tid=1765726286110&via=d1namit

https://polymarket.com/event/lighter-airdop-by?tid=1765725883421&via=d1namit

1-2% arbitrage

What are your thoughts on Gensyn sale market?

https://polymarket.com/event/gensyn-public-sale-total-commitments/over-100m-committed-to-the-gensyn-public-sale-758-871?tid=1765802453746&via=d1namit

imo there would be something like 50 < x < 100

easy bond now
they raised 1.4m in first 40 mins

20m market added
1.73m raised now, very very bad result

https://predict.fun/invite

New prediction market backed by Binance Labs

Also here we can get a bonus points for trading on Polymarket and other PMs, I got 12500

just bought base watches

https://shop.base.org/

looks cool for collection

https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-release-epstein-files-by/will-trump-release-the-epstein-files-by-december-19-771?tid=1766156943770

actively watching this market, bought first shares at 65 on Yes, now my avg is 85

https://polymarket.com/event/gensyn-public-sale-total-commitments/over-400m-committed-to-the-gensyn-public-sale-344-371-447-337-697-444-148?tid=1766180351650

>15m yes looks good here, bought a lil bit

is it good or not?

research by @Alin9021 in chat, 100% worth take a look

Here are some short reasons why Luís Marques Mendes, Henrique Gouveia e Melo and André Ventura are currently seen as favourites in my opinion:

1) Strong polling performance (three-way race)
All three candidates consistently appear at or near the top in opinion polls, often in a statistical tie for the lead slot going into the first round — with roughly ~19–23 % support each in various surveys.

2) Established name recognition and political support
• Mendes is a veteran center-right politician and ex-leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), giving him broad recognition among moderate and conservative voters.
• Ventura leads Chega, which recently became a major force in Portuguese politics and has a loyal voter base; this helps him secure a robust core share.
• Gouveia e Melo rose to national prominence as the public face of Portugal’s COVID-19 vaccination effort, giving him widespread name awareness beyond traditional party politics.

3) Fragmented field increases their relative share
With many minor candidates in the race, the vote is split — making it easier for well-known figures like these three to stand out and pull ahead of less established rivals.

4) Broad appeal across different voter blocs
• Mendes appeals to traditional center-right voters and moderates.
• Gouveia e Melo attracts voters tired of party politics, thanks to his independent image.
• Ventura galvanizes the protest and right-leaning electorate with strong rhetoric on issues like corruption and identity politics.

5) Election dynamics favor top three for runoff
Polls show no candidate surpassing 50 % in the first round, making a runoff almost inevitable and positioning these three as the most likely to advance to the final ballot based on current intention figures.