btw, my most profitable trade is $USELESS, which i bought back in april and shilled here

10x since that post

i think it’s definitely worth signing up here: https://waitlist.jumper.xyz/r/JMP-2E53051B

rumor is $JUMP will run a token sale on Legion with very favorable terms

and for joining the waitlist, i’d expect either an airdrop or some kind of bonus for the token sale

https://x.com/nobrainflip/status/2102862646240293274

since this post, my bags have gone even higher, especially $NEET

on fomo, i write my thesis for every coin i buy, so you can check there to see roughly why i’m buying each one

today i’m also going to write a full guide to my strategy - explaining the mindset, how i find coins, why i avoid some and buy others

but overall, the main thing you need to understand is that memes are basically leveraged beta on $BTC

if $BTC goes down to $60k — which is obviously possible — that’s roughly a 27% drop

your meme portfolio could easily be down 60% from that

but if we keep trading around $80k for another month, or especially if we go higher, memes will probably keep running day after day

so if the market stays flat for another month, you would realistically make 2-3x

if the market goes higher and you actually hold your bags instead of selling early, 10x+ outcomes are absolutely possible

now ask yourself

what’s the probability we stay sideways for another month

what’s the probability we dump before that

and what’s the probability we go higher

then calculate the risk/reward instead of just blindly buying

for example, i’d personally put it roughly like this

• 25% chance we stay sideways for more than a month
• 40% chance we go higher without a major pullback first
• 60% chance we eventually go lower

these probabilities overlap, because we could stay sideways for a month and still dump later

so for a simple one-month model, you could treat it as roughly

• 25% sideways
• 40% up
• 35% dump within the month

now assume memes do +150% in the sideways scenario, +900% in the bullish scenario, and -60% in the bearish scenario

the expected return would be:

0.25 × 150% + 0.40 × 900% - 0.35 × 60% = +376.5%

obviously that number looks insane because the entire setup is extremely asymmetric

your downside might be -60%, while the upside can be several hundred percent or even 10x if you catch the right coins

but it also shows how sensitive the whole calculation is to your assumptions

if your “10x” scenario is actually only 2x, the math changes completely

this is how you can think about whether trading any asset makes sense at any stage of the market

estimate the possible outcomes

estimate their probabilities

then compare expected upside to expected downside

the reason i’m saying all of this is because you can absolutely lose everything trading memes

so size accordingly and understand the risk you’re taking

and there’s one more thing i want to add because i think a lot of people are still in disbelief about this entire asset class

in a sense, every coin - even $BTC - is a community coin

there’s a community that collectively decided it has value based on something, and the market keeps trying to price that belief

memes work the same way

traders give them value based on something too

they don’t have revenue, so most of their value comes from collective belief, attention, identity, distribution, and the strength of the community behind them

take $ANSEM for example

if you believe ansem keeps pushing $ANSEM, ask yourself how high the mcap could realistically go at peak attention

• he has 1.4m followers
• look at how the market currently views him
• think about whether that perception gets stronger or weaker
• then ask yourself what the probability is that he simply stops caring about the coin

and compare that setup with alternatives

for example $USELESS, which i’d also describe as a kind of identity coin around unipcs

understand what exactly you’re trading when you buy a specific meme

once you understand that, you’ll start making much better decisions

I wrote a huge article that i think is insanely useful for anyone trying to understand how i trade memes right now, how to look at this market properly, and how to actually learn to trade it yourself

definitely read it even if you have zero interest in memes

i think it’ll open a lot of people’s eyes to a few things:

(And pls engage with it, spent a lot of time on that one)

https://x.com/nobrainflip/status/2103496245109043636

another article (probably even more useful than the last one)

If I started trading memes today with <$10k: the exact 4-week plan:

https://x.com/nobrainflip/status/2104534814430822674

read this pls, stop losing money:

https://x.com/nobrainflip/status/2104566148301803817