#US vs. #IRAN #War
🧠 Analysis: The Domino Effect
PART 3: "Outsourcing Sovereignty"
7. The Evacuation Markers
➡️ Three signals, read together, tell a single story:
🇮🇱 Signal 1: Kushner and Witkoff cancel Israel visit.
🇸🇦 Signal 2: Tanker evacuation from Prince Sultan Air Base.
🇹🇷 Signal 3: US Embassy evacuation from Adana, Turkey.
🇵🇰 Signal 4: Drones over Zahedan — 97 km from a nuclear power.
⏺ If a single American or Israeli drone crosses into Pakistani airspace — even accidentally — this becomes an entirely different kind of crisis. The kind measured not in oil prices, but in megatons.
@REALITY_ANALYST
PART 3: "Outsourcing Sovereignty"
7. The Evacuation Markers
Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner abruptly cancelled their planned March 10 trip to Israel — reported by Israeli Channel 12. Kushner is Trump's personal financial channel to the Middle East — the architect of the Abraham Accords, the man who brokered the Saudi normalization track. If he is afraid to fly to Tel Aviv, it means US intelligence (or what remains of it) expects a massive strike on Israel that the Iron Dome cannot absorb.
This assessment is supported by facts on the ground: Hezbollah's latest rocket attack struck a critical satellite communications center in Beit Shemesh, deep inside Israel, using precision-guided surface-to-surface missiles. Israeli media confirmed the strike. The "dome" has been significantly breached.
The US withdrew its aerial refueling tankers (KC-135/KC-46) from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia after intense overnight strikes on the facility. Without tankers, fighter aircraft cannot operate at the ranges required for the Iranian theater. This isn't redeployment — it's retreat. If tankers leave Saudi Arabia, the air campaign from Saudi bases stops.
The US ordered non-essential embassy staff and families to leave the consulate in Adana — home to Incirlik Air Base, NATO's key southern flank installation. Today, an Iranian ballistic missile was intercepted in Turkish airspace, with debris falling near Gaziantep — 100 km from the Syrian border. Iran says it "did not attack Turkey." Perhaps the missile was aimed at Incirlik and was intercepted. Perhaps it was a miss. Either way, the message is clear.
Erdogan is still talking about "dialogue." But six F-16s and air defense systems deployed to Northern Cyprus say otherwise. Turkey is hedging — and when NATO's second-largest army starts hedging, the alliance is in trouble.
US/Israeli drones have been spotted over Zahedan, the capital of Iranian Baluchistan — the closest major city to the Pakistani border. Pakistan is not Iran. Pakistan has 165 nuclear warheads and the delivery systems to use them.
@REALITY_ANALYST
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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🧠 Analysis: The Domino Effect
PART 4: "Who Pays, Who Profits"
8. The Trillion-Dollar Morning
💸 On March 9, 2026, more than $900 billion vanished from the US stock market at opening bell. To put this in perspective: that's more than the entire GDP of Saudi Arabia — gone in hours.
European markets followed:
• 🇫🇷 Paris: -2.29%
• 🇩🇪 Frankfurt: -2.50%
• 🇬🇧 London: -1.26%
➡️ And here's the number that matters most: the war is costing the US approximately $6 billion per week in direct military expenditure. Trump has ordered a fourfold increase in ammunition production. The 82nd Airborne has been pulled from exercises. Ammunition stocks are running low after just 10 days.
Ten days. $6 billion. And the Pentagon is already rationing.
9. Lloyd's of London: The Invisible Hand
Trump told commercial vessels to "show courage" and sail through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Iran has lost "all but 20% of its launch capabilities."
This statement reveals either profound ignorance or deliberate cynicism. Likely both.
➡️ The entire global oil trade runs on a chain of insurance policies. Lloyd's of London — 335 years of continuous operation, older than the United States itself — underwrites the majority of maritime war risk coverage. When Lloyd's raises war risk premiums, shipping costs spike. When Lloyd's excludes a zone entirely, shipping stops. Period.
No insurance means:
➡️ Trump is asking private businesses to play Russian roulette with 25-man crews and $200 million vessels to suppress gas prices before elections. Lloyd's, which has been calculating risk since 1688, is saying: no.
And Lloyd's is more powerful than the President. Because Lloyd's is math. And math doesn't negotiate.
@REALITY_ANALYST
PART 4: "Who Pays, Who Profits"
8. The Trillion-Dollar Morning
European markets followed:
• 🇫🇷 Paris: -2.29%
• 🇩🇪 Frankfurt: -2.50%
• 🇬🇧 London: -1.26%
Dubai's real estate index collapsed 15-20% — the end of the "safe haven" narrative that had drawn capital fleeing Hong Kong and London. Money that ran to Dubai is now running from Dubai. Destination: Switzerland, Singapore, Tokyo. Gold.
The US dollar surged — but not because the American economy is strong. Because everything else is falling faster. A classic flight to safety: the dollar as the last fortress. But a fortress spending $1 billion per day on a war it cannot win is not a fortress. It's an illusion with an expiration date.
Ten days. $6 billion. And the Pentagon is already rationing.
9. Lloyd's of London: The Invisible Hand
Trump told commercial vessels to "show courage" and sail through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Iran has lost "all but 20% of its launch capabilities."
This statement reveals either profound ignorance or deliberate cynicism. Likely both.
First: 20% of the IRGC's anti-ship arsenal is still hundreds of missiles. Iran's Noor (a derivative of the Chinese C-802), Qader, and Khalij Fars anti-ship missiles are specifically designed to sink tankers in narrow waterways. One hit sinks a supertanker. One. The Strait of Hormuz is 33 km wide. At its narrowest navigable channel — roughly 3 km. A shooting gallery by any military definition.
Second — and this is the part Trump either doesn't understand or is deliberately ignoring — it doesn't matter how brave a captain is if Lloyd's of London says no.
No insurance means:
• The port of destination won't accept the vessel
• Banks won't finance the cargo
• Buyers won't sign the contract
• The flag state won't authorize the voyage
Trump can tweet "be brave" until his fingers bleed. But a tanker captain answers to his shipping company. The shipping company answers to its insurer. The insurer answers to Lloyd's. And Lloyd's answers to actuarial tables, not presidential bravado.⏺ Lloyd's has already raised war risk premiums for Gulf transit to levels not seen since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s — the last time tankers were actively targeted in the Strait. At current premium levels, the cost of insuring a single VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) transit has increased tenfold. This cost is passed directly to the price of oil, which is passed to the price of gasoline, which is passed to every American filling up their tank.
And Lloyd's is more powerful than the President. Because Lloyd's is math. And math doesn't negotiate.
@REALITY_ANALYST
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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🧠 Analysis: The Domino Effect
PART 4: "Who Pays, Who Profits"
10. The Mobilization Ghost
⏺ White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt refused to rule out mobilization.
This is not a slip. Press secretaries at the White House do not misspeak on questions of mobilization. Every word is vetted. Every non-denial is deliberate. This is how the ground is prepared:
Phase 1: "We're not ruling anything out" ← we are here
Phase 2: "We are considering all options"
Phase 3: "The President has authorized..."
➡️ The last time the United States enacted a military draft was 1973 — during Vietnam. The last time it activated large-scale mobilization was 1950 — Korea. That was 76 years ago.
The generation that would be called to fight is Gen Z. The TikTok generation. The generation that watched Afghanistan collapse in real time on their phones. The generation with the lowest trust in government institutions in recorded American polling history.
➡️ They will not go.
And the public is already responding. Americans on social media called on Trump's 19-year-old son Barron to volunteer for military service and deploy to Iran. The Vietnam parallel is exact: when the war starts touching the children of the elite, public opinion inverts. "Why should my son die for a war the President's son won't fight?"
➡️ The math of a ground invasion is annihilating. Iran is not Iraq 2003:
This would not be Iraq. This would be Afghanistan × 10. A second Vietnam — except in terrain that makes the Hindu Kush look hospitable.
@REALITY_ANALYST
PART 4: "Who Pays, Who Profits"
10. The Mobilization Ghost
This is not a slip. Press secretaries at the White House do not misspeak on questions of mobilization. Every word is vetted. Every non-denial is deliberate. This is how the ground is prepared:
Phase 1: "We're not ruling anything out" ← we are here
Phase 2: "We are considering all options"
Phase 3: "The President has authorized..."
The generation that would be called to fight is Gen Z. The TikTok generation. The generation that watched Afghanistan collapse in real time on their phones. The generation with the lowest trust in government institutions in recorded American polling history.
Draft resistance in 2026 would make 1968 look like a campus picnic. Vietnam-era resistance had to organize through mimeographed flyers and campus meetings. Today's resistance would organize in hours — across every platform, every city, every campus simultaneously.
Trump knows this. That's why he immediately declared he is "far from ordering a ground mission in Iran." But Leavitt didn't rule out mobilization. Two messages from the same White House on the same day. One for the public: "relax, no ground war." One for the Pentagon: "prepare for everything."
And the public is already responding. Americans on social media called on Trump's 19-year-old son Barron to volunteer for military service and deploy to Iran. The Vietnam parallel is exact: when the war starts touching the children of the elite, public opinion inverts. "Why should my son die for a war the President's son won't fight?"
• Population: 87 million (Iraq had 25 million)
• Terrain: Mountain ranges covering 54% of the country (Iraq is mostly flat desert)
• Military: 600,000 active army + 190,000 IRGC + Basij militia (potentially millions)
• Geography: Iran is four times the size of Iraq
This would not be Iraq. This would be Afghanistan × 10. A second Vietnam — except in terrain that makes the Hindu Kush look hospitable.
@REALITY_ANALYST
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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🧠 Analysis: The Domino Effect
PART 4: "Who Pays, Who Profits"
11. The Beneficiaries: Follow the Money
War is the most profitable business in human history. This one is no exception. The question "who benefits?" reveals a list of actors who didn't start the fire — but who are feeding on it:
🇷🇺 Russia. Oil at $110+ is a direct cash injection into Moscow's war economy. Every dollar above $60/barrel funds the war in Ukraine. Hormuz closure devastates China (Russia's nominal ally but strategic competitor) while enriching the Kremlin. Moscow didn't start this war — but it's the single biggest financial beneficiary. And Russian intelligence data helped Iran knock out American radar systems. The enemy of my enemy writes checks.
🪖 The Military-Industrial Complex. $6 billion per week in direct spending. Trump has ordered a fourfold increase in ammunition production. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon (RTX), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics — all are looking at contracts stretching years into the future. Their stock prices tell the story: while the S&P 500 lost $900 billion in a morning, defense stocks rose. War is not a cost for these companies. War is the product.
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia. Iran's main regional rival is being systematically destroyed by someone else's military, at someone else's expense. Saudi oil revenues are surging on $120/barrel prices. Vision 2030 — MBS's modernization program — is suddenly fully funded by windfall profits. The kingdom didn't fire a single shot, and it's winning on every front.
📊 Short sellers. $900 billion disappeared from markets in one morning. Someone knew in advance and bet on the collapse. Tracing those trades — who shorted oil futures, airline stocks, and Gulf real estate in the 72 hours before the war began — would reveal the true architecture of this conflict. But no one is investigating. Because the regulators work for the same people who profit.
🛰 Elon Musk. Starlink is the only reliable communications channel in the conflict zone. X (formerly Twitter) is the dominant information platform for war coverage — with Musk personally controlling the algorithm and narrative. Sentient Sun, his $1.75 trillion financial vehicle, is positioned to profit from market restructuring. And Grok is being pushed as a replacement for competing AI systems. Chaos is Musk's growth medium.
🏦 Lloyd's and the insurance sector. War risk premiums have increased tenfold. Reinsurers are earning more in weeks than they did in the previous decade. The more dangerous the Strait becomes, the more they charge. They don't want the war to end — they want it to stay exactly dangerous enough to justify permanent premium increases.
➡️ None of these actors started the war. But all of them are sustained by it. And none of them have any incentive to stop it.
@REALITY_ANALYST
PART 4: "Who Pays, Who Profits"
11. The Beneficiaries: Follow the Money
War is the most profitable business in human history. This one is no exception. The question "who benefits?" reveals a list of actors who didn't start the fire — but who are feeding on it:
🪖 The Military-Industrial Complex. $6 billion per week in direct spending. Trump has ordered a fourfold increase in ammunition production. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon (RTX), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics — all are looking at contracts stretching years into the future. Their stock prices tell the story: while the S&P 500 lost $900 billion in a morning, defense stocks rose. War is not a cost for these companies. War is the product.
@REALITY_ANALYST
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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🧠 Analysis: The Domino Effect
PART 4: "Who Pays, Who Profits"
12. Conclusion: The Fire Tends Itself
The US military machine is operating in the interests of a foreign state. The American economy is hurtling toward stagflation. China is receiving a free masterclass in US military doctrine. Allies are distancing themselves. Markets are hemorrhaging. The environmental catastrophe will poison millions for decades. And the White House won't rule out sending a generation to die in mountains they can't find on a map.
➡️ Who is driving this war?
No territorial claims. No regime change plan (Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power, not lost it). No exit strategy. No definition of victory. The administration that started it cannot articulate what "winning" looks like — because winning was never the point.
➡️ This is not a theory. It is a question. But it is the only question that explains why no one is trying to stop the fire.
The beneficiaries are not "winners." They are parasites on chaos. None of them planned this. All of them profit from it. And therefore, none of them are interested in stopping it.
The question is not "who will win this war."
The question is: who will be left when the fire burns out?
@REALITY_ANALYST
PART 4: "Who Pays, Who Profits"
12. Conclusion: The Fire Tends Itself
The US military machine is operating in the interests of a foreign state. The American economy is hurtling toward stagflation. China is receiving a free masterclass in US military doctrine. Allies are distancing themselves. Markets are hemorrhaging. The environmental catastrophe will poison millions for decades. And the White House won't rule out sending a generation to die in mountains they can't find on a map.
No territorial claims. No regime change plan (Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power, not lost it). No exit strategy. No definition of victory. The administration that started it cannot articulate what "winning" looks like — because winning was never the point.
What if this war is not about Iran at all? What if the fire was lit not to destroy an enemy, but to answer an ultimatum — one we haven't seen? An ultimatum where the price of continued existence is paid in chaos, in blood, in the dismantling of the old order? Where the beneficiaries are not profiteers but survivors-in-advance — entities buying their seat at whatever table exists after the smoke clears?
Perhaps the war is not a means to an end. Perhaps the war is the end. Not "chaos as a tool" — but chaos as an environment. A fire that no one controls because no one needs to. Someone lit the match and stepped back. The fire feeds itself — on oil revenues, defense contracts, insurance premiums, short positions, and human lives.
If so, the list of beneficiaries in Section 11 is not a list of those who earn. It is a list of those who have purchased tickets. And the rest — the 14 million breathing black rain, the 170 million in Bangladesh facing hunger, the generation being told to "show courage" in a strait of burning oil — they are the price of admission.
The beneficiaries are not "winners." They are parasites on chaos. None of them planned this. All of them profit from it. And therefore, none of them are interested in stopping it.
The question is not "who will win this war."
The question is: who will be left when the fire burns out?
@REALITY_ANALYST
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Трампу предлагают уйти "по хорошему"
⚡️ 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Канадский журналист Марк Слапински заявил сегодня на X:
➡️ Напомним, неделю назад, 3 марта, на слушаниях в Конгрессе Тим Тебоу предупредил, что согласно отчету ФБР, число преступлений, связанных с насилием над детьми в США, выросло с 57 000 до «более чем 89 000».
➡️ Впервые Тебоу заговорил об этом публично 27 февраля. В тот же день Трамп внезапно отдал приказ немедленно начать абсолютно неподготовленную операцию против Ирана. Совпадение?
🔗 @TimTebow
Dallas Express
🛰 ❌ 🇺🇸 Напомни также, что первым почти год назад войну против Трампа по кейсу Эпштейна начал Илон Маск, на чьи деньги Трамп выиграл вторые выборы.
➡️ На фоне того скандала Маск потерял $33,9 млрд из-за падения акций, но выстоял и пообещал "посодействовать" импичменту Трампа.
Похоже, Маск собирается сдержать слово.
❗️ UPD:
Еще до войны начались поиски преемника.
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"Есть видео, на которых Трамп занимается сексом с детьми.
Это лишь вопрос времени, когда они появятся в интернете и положат конец его президентству раз и навсегда."
Указывая на карту IP-адресов, с которых скачиваются или распространяются изображения сексуального характера — где почти все дети младше 12 лет — Тебоу заявил, что многие преступники совершают насилие над жертвами:
«Это IP-адреса американцев, которые скачивают детскую порнографию. 300 000 загрузок в месяц. И это проблема.
Ни в одной стране мира нет даже 5000 загрузок. В Америке их более 300 000».
🔗 @TimTebow
Dallas Express
🔴 5 июня 2025 Маск сбросил "бомбу", заявив на X , что Трамп фигурирует в засекреченных Минюстом файлах Эпштейна, — и что это «настоящая причина, по которой они не были обнародованы»
7 июня 2025, после грандиозного публичного скандала, ссоры с Трампом и Беннетом, а также драки с Бессентом Маск взял паузу и удалил свой твит. Однако всё помнит не только гугл.
Похоже, Маск собирается сдержать слово.
Еще до войны начались поиски преемника.
NBC сообщает, что в конце февраля — ещё до операции в Иране — Трамп провёл частный «опрос» в Мар-а-Лаго среди 25 крупнейших спонсоров Республиканской партии: кого бы они предпочли в качестве кандидата в президенты в 2028 году — Джей Ди Вэнса или Марко Рубио?
Ответ был почти единогласным: Марко Рубио.
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Trump Is Being Offered an Exit
⚡️ 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Canadian journalist Mark Slapinski posted on X today:
Context:
➡️ A week ago, on March 3, Tim Tebow warned Congress that according to FBI reports, child sexual abuse crimes in the US had surged from 57,000 to over 89,000.
➡️ Tebow first spoke about this publicly on February 27. On that same day, Trump abruptly ordered the immediate launch of a completely unprepared military operation against Iran. Coincidence?
🔗 @TimTebow
Dallas Express
🛰 ❌ 🇺🇸 The Musk Factor
🔴 The first shot in the war against Trump over the Epstein case was fired almost a year ago — by the very man whose money put Trump back in the White House.
➡️ In the aftermath, Musk lost $33.9 billion from the stock selloff — but held his ground and promised to "facilitate" Trump's impeachment.
➡️ The Succession Question
➡️ This means exit negotiations didn't start yesterday. They started before the war. The search for a successor is underway. What comes next is likely a technical question: a health-related justification for why the President can no longer fulfill his duties.
Because if he doesn't leave voluntarily — Musk will finish what he started.
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"There's videos of Trump having sex with kids. It's only a matter of time before they go online and end his presidency once and for all. Bookmark this."
Context:
Pointing to a map of IP addresses downloading or distributing sexual imagery — where nearly all victims are under 12 — Tebow stated:
"These are IP addresses of Americans downloading child pornography. 300,000 downloads per month. And this is a problem. No other country in the world has even 5,000 downloads. America has over 300,000."
🔗 @TimTebow
Dallas Express
On June 5, 2025, Elon Musk dropped his "bomb" on X:
"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!"
— 138K likes. 7M views in 19 minutes.
Ten minutes later, he added: "Mark this post for the future. The truth will come out."
On June 7, 2025, after a massive public scandal, a falling-out with Trump and Bennett, and a confrontation with Bessent, Musk paused and deleted his tweet. But Google remembers — and so does everyone else.
NBC reports that Trump conducted a private "poll" at Mar-a-Lago in late February — before the Iran operation — among 25 of the Republican Party's biggest donors: whom would they prefer as the 2028 presidential candidate — J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio?
The answer was Marco Rubio — almost unanimously.
Because if he doesn't leave voluntarily — Musk will finish what he started.
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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🇺🇸 ⚔️ 🇮🇷 CENTCOM summarized the 10 days of Operation Epic Fury:
📝 "More than 5,000 targets were attacked, and more than 50 Iranian ships were destroyed or damaged."
➡️ Are CENTCOM’s reported figures for destroyed targets accurate?
Let’s examine what the visually confirmed evidence really shows.
➡️ Air Defense Systems SAM
➡️ Radars
6 (5 destroyed + 1 damaged)
➡️ Missile Launchers (TELs)
28 (27 destroyed + 1 damaged)
➡️ Aircraft
➡️ Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)
2 (2 destroyed + 0 damaged)
➡️ Warships
11 (9 destroyed + 2 damaged)
➡️ Ground Vehicles
35 (28 destroyed + 7 damaged)
➡️ Towed Artillery
1 (1 destroyed + 0 damaged)
➡️ Anti-Aircraft Guns
8 (8 destroyed + 0 damaged)
➡️ Additional losses confirmed on March 8 update (not yet added to main totals above):
Do you want to know the truth? These numbers are tiny compared to the Iranian arsenal, as they have, in fact, hidden all of their weaponry.
CENTCOM exaggerated about the numbers.
🔗 Patricia Marins
🔴 CENTCOM claims 5,000+ targets destroyed in 10 days. Independent OSINT verification (Elmustek) confirms approximately 120. The discrepancy is not a rounding error — it is a factor of 40. This is consistent with historical patterns: in Kosovo 1999, NATO claimed 120 tanks destroyed; the real number was 14. In Al-Asad 2020, CENTCOM reported "zero casualties"; the real number was 110+ traumatic brain injuries. The Pentagon does not make mistakes of this magnitude. It manufactures them.
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Let’s examine what the visually confirmed evidence really shows.
12 (10 destroyed + 2 damaged)
- Khordad-15: 2 destroyed
- Sevom Khordad: 2 destroyed
- 9A331 TLAR for 9K331 Tor-M1: 1 destroyed
- M192 Launcher for HAWK SAM: 1 destroyed
- Majid SAM: 1 destroyed
- Qaem-118: 1 destroyed
- Unknown AD-System: 2 destroyed
- 2P25 TEL for 2K12 Kub: 1 damaged
- Arman: 1 damaged
6 (5 destroyed + 1 damaged)
28 (27 destroyed + 1 damaged)
16 (14 destroyed + 2 damaged)
- SU-22M4: 3 destroyed
- C-130: 2 destroyed
- Northrop F-5 Tiger II: 2 destroyed
- MiG-29: 2 destroyed
- Unknown Aircraft: 3 destroyed
- McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II: 1 destroyed
- Yak-130: 1 destroyed
- MiG-29: 2 damaged
2 (2 destroyed + 0 damaged)
11 (9 destroyed + 2 damaged)
35 (28 destroyed + 7 damaged)
1 (1 destroyed + 0 damaged)
8 (8 destroyed + 0 damaged)
- 1 Ballistic Missile System (destroyed)
- 1 Fakur Command Post (destroyed)
- 1 Unknown Command Post (destroyed)
- 1 Kamaz 6x6 truck (destroyed)
- 1 Unknown Truck (destroyed)
Do you want to know the truth? These numbers are tiny compared to the Iranian arsenal, as they have, in fact, hidden all of their weaponry.
CENTCOM exaggerated about the numbers.
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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🌎 СОБЫТИЯ и ФАКТЫ
➡️ Что говорят политики и военные:
🇮🇱 Представитель ЦАХАЛа: мы уничтожили более 1900 солдат иранского режима
#Израиль планирует увеличить свой оборонный бюджет ~ на $13 млрд для финансирования войны, — Bloomberg
🇱🇧 ⏺ Human Rights Watch: Израиль применил боеприпасы с белым фосфором над ливанским городом Йомор 3 марта
⚡️ UNICEF: со 2 марта в Ливане погибли по меньшей мере 83 ребенка и 254 получили ранения по мере эскалации между Израилем и "Хезболлой"
Каждый день погибают более 10 детей и 36 получают ранения
⚡️ 🇨🇦 Неизвестный открыл огонь по US консульству в Торонто — Reuters
⚡️ 🇺🇸 Boeing заключил контракт на $289 млн на поставку Израилю 5000 «умных» бомб.
🇺🇸 Трамп — Fox News:
➡️ Ничего не напоминает? Путин после вторжения в Украину в 2022: "Если бы мы не напали на них, через 3 дня они бы напали на нас".
🇺🇸 ☎️ 🇷🇺 Агент Краснов доложил, что поговорил со своим Кремлевским куратором об успехах операции в Иране:
Осталось поделиться радостью с Ким Чен Ыном...и Адольфом
🇷🇺 🫡 "Путин заверил Трампа, что Россия не поставляет Ирану данные для ударов по объектам США", — Виткофф в интервью CNBC
➡️ Что выходит — ЦРУ, Пентагон и WP врут Белому Дому? Какая наглость! А так же, похоже, врёт иранский МИД, который публично в интервью NBC подтвердил помощь России и Китая...
🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🛢 Трамп:
⚡️ Джон Болтон:
🇩🇪 Канцлер Германии Мерц:
🕔 💰 Ормузский пролив остается закрыт для всех судов вторую неделю.
Многие коммерческие суда остаются застрявшими по обе стороны из-за угроз ракет и беспилотников после ударов Ирана, США и Израиля.
🪖Генерал Дэн Кейн:
⚡️ 📝 Иран уже приступил к минированию Ормузского пролива, — CBS
💵 РЫНКИ:
🛢 📉 Цена на нефть (WTI) упала до $85 за баррель после словесных интервенций Трампа о скором окончании войны
⚡️ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 🇻🇪 У берегов Китая скопились рекордные запасы подсанкционной нефти из России, Ирана и Венесуэлы — 40 млн баррелей находятся на танкерах в ожидании разгрузки, — Kpler
⚡️ 🇮🇳 Индийские НПЗ скупили всю доступную российскую нефть, — Bloomberg.
Объем закупок составил около 30 млн баррелей, а цена превысила стоимость Brent на $2–8 за баррель
⚡️ 🇶🇦 ⛽️ Рынки СПГ серьезно пострадали из-за прекращения поставок Катара
UPD:
🚨 🇺🇸 Сенатор США Ричард Блюменталь после брифинга:
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#Израиль планирует увеличить свой оборонный бюджет ~ на $13 млрд для финансирования войны, — Bloomberg
Каждый день погибают более 10 детей и 36 получают ранения
"Если бы мы подождали три дня, я считаю, они на нас бы напали".
"Путин был впечатлён нашей операцией в Иране. Он сказал мне, что никогда раньше такого не видел".
Осталось поделиться радостью с Ким Чен Ыном...
"Вчера во время разговора с президентом русские заявили, что они не делились разведданными. Мы можем поверить им на слово", — заявил спецпредставитель Трампа.
"Мы отменяем некоторые санкции в отношении российской нефти, чтобы снизить цены. Пока ситуация не урегулируется..."
"Трамп манипулирует фондовыми рынками; мы знаем, что цены на нефть резко выросли."
С нашей точки зрения — и с моей точки зрения — нет причин рассматривать вопрос об ослаблении санкций против России.
И если столкнуться с выбором между санкциями или солидарностью, наша позиция ясна: мы стоим на стороне Украины.
И мы обеспокоены тем, что, по всей видимости, не существует общего плана того, как эту войну можно быстро и убедительно завершить.
Многие коммерческие суда остаются застрявшими по обе стороны из-за угроз ракет и беспилотников после ударов Ирана, США и Израиля.
🪖Генерал Дэн Кейн:
"CENTCOM продолжит наносить удары по иранскому военно-морскому флоту, чтобы предотвратить перемещения через Ормузский пролив".
"Мы будем наносить удары по судам, занимающимся установкой мин."
После заявлений Трампа о возможном скором выходе США из войны с Ираном и снятии санкций на российскую нефть, стоимость майских фьючерсов на Brent упала до $86,99 за баррель, однако торгуется в боковике на уровне $92,04 за баррель.
Это на 17% больше, чем за неделю до начала войны против Ирана.
Нефть хранится прямо на судах и может служить резервом для китайских нефтеперерабатывающих заводов на фоне перебоев поставок сырья из стран Персидского залива
Объем закупок составил около 30 млн баррелей, а цена превысила стоимость Brent на $2–8 за баррель
💰 Стоимость контрактов выросла до $13 — на 53% больше чем в 2025🇺🇸 Стоимость СПГ на внутреннем рынке США — $3,63🇪🇺 США продают газ в Европу и Азию (68% СПГ) по $12-13 за тонну.
UPD:
"Похоже, мы движемся к размещению американских войск в Иране для достижения любых потенциальных целей."
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#US vs. #IRAN #War
🌎 EVENTS and FACTS
➡️ What politicians and military say:
🇮🇱 IDF Spokesperson: We have eliminated over 1,900 Iranian regime combatants.
#Israel plans to boost its defense budget by ~$13 billion to bankroll the war with Iran — Bloomberg.
🇱🇧 ⏺ Human Rights Watch: Israel dropped white phosphorus munitions on the Lebanese city of Yahmor on March 3.
⚡️ UNICEF: Since March 2, at least 83 children have been killed and 254 injured in Lebanon amid the Israel-Hezbollah escalation. That's an average of 10+ kids killed and 36 injured daily.
⚡️ 🇨🇦 An unidentified gunman opened fire on the US consulate in Toronto — Reuters.
⚡️ 🇺🇸 Boeing Secures $289 Million Contract to Supply Israel with Up to 5,000 Smart Bombs
🇺🇸 Trump:
➡️ Putin after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022: "If we hadn't attacked them, they would have attacked us in 3 days."
🇺🇸 ☎️ 🇷🇺 Agent Krasnov reported on his chat with his Kremlin handler regarding the Iran op's successes:
"Putin was impressed by our operation in Iran. He told me he had never seen anything like it before."
Now he just needs to share the joy with Kim Jong-un...and Adolf.
🇷🇺 🫡 "Putin assured Trump that Russia is not providing Iran with data for strikes on US facilities," — Vitkoff (CNBC).
➡️ So the CIA, Pentagon, and WP are lying to the WH? The audacity! And apparently, the Iranian Foreign Ministry is lying too, despite publicly confirming Russian and Chinese assistance...
🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🛢 Trump:
⚡️ John Bolton:
🇩🇪 German Chancellor Merz:
🕔 💰 The Strait of Hormuz remains sealed off to all shipping for a second week.
Commercial vessels are stranded on both sides due to missile and drone threats.
🪖 General Dan Caine:
⚡️ 📝 Iran has already started mining the Strait of Hormuz — CBS.
💵 MARKETS:
🛢 📉 WTI crude dropped to $85/bbl following Trump's verbal interventions about an imminent end to the war.
⚡️ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 🇻🇪 Off the coast of #China, record stockpiles of sanctioned oil from #Russia, #Iran, and #Venezuela have piled up — 40 million barrels are sitting on tankers waiting to offload — Kpler.
⚡️ 🇮🇳 Indian refiners have swept up all available Russian crude — Bloomberg.
The haul totaled roughly 30 million barrels, pricing at a $2-$8 premium over Brent.
⚡️ 🇶🇦 ⛽️LNG markets have taken a massive hit from the disruption of Qatari supplies.
UPD:
🚨 🇺🇸 US Senator Richard Blumenthal after the briefing:
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#Israel plans to boost its defense budget by ~$13 billion to bankroll the war with Iran — Bloomberg.
"If we had waited three days, I think they would have attacked us."
"Putin was impressed by our operation in Iran. He told me he had never seen anything like it before."
Now he just needs to share the joy with Kim Jong-un...
"Yesterday, during a conversation with the president, the Russians stated that they had not shared intelligence data. We can take them at their word."
"We are lifting some sanctions on Russian oil to drive down prices. Just until the situation is resolved..."
"Trump is manipulating the stock markets; we know that oil prices have risen sharply."
🇩🇪 German Chancellor Merz:
"From our perspective — and mine personally — there is zero justification for easing sanctions on Russia. If forced to choose between sanctions and solidarity, our stance is clear: we stand with Ukraine. We are deeply concerned by the apparent lack of any coherent plan to end this war swiftly and decisively."
Commercial vessels are stranded on both sides due to missile and drone threats.
🪖 General Dan Caine:
"CENTCOM continues to strike the Iranian Navy and its capabilities to ensure sustained movement through the Strait of Hormuz. We will keep hitting their minelaying vessels."
Following Trump's remarks on a potential early US exit from the Iran conflict and the lifting of Russian oil sanctions, May Brent futures dipped to $86.99/bbl, though it continues to trade sideways around $92.04/bbl.
That's a 17% spike compared to the week before the Iran war kicked off. The crude is floating storage, acting as a buffer for Chinese refineries amid supply chain disruptions from the Persian Gulf.
The haul totaled roughly 30 million barrels, pricing at a $2-$8 premium over Brent.
💰 Contract prices have surged to $13 — up 53% from 2025.🇺🇸 The US domestic LNG price sits at $3.63.🇪🇺 Meanwhile, the US is offloading gas to Europe and Asia (68% of its LNG exports) at $12-$13.
UPD:
"We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here."
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