Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Because the APNSA isn't a member of the Cabinet, the President may appoint whomever they wish to the position without needing to acquire the consent of the Senate. Sullivan serves solely at the pleasure of President Biden.

6/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Excluding Actings, 27 APNSAs have come before Sullivan, but just 7 have lasted an entire full term; most quit or are fired. Only a select few maintain the confidence of the President and keep their job for the full four years. Sullivan is on track to become #8.

7/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Sullivan's membership in this exclusive club speaks to the high level of confidence that President Biden has in him. If he was unhappy with Jake, he could easily replace him. Sullivan has certainly had numerous blunders that would justify a dismissal.

8/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Through the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the October 7th attack on Israel, Sullivan has kept his job though. Just one of these crises would tax both the fortitude of a NSA and their relationship with the President.

9/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Even in the best of times, it's a stressful job, which is why NSAs have a short lifespan. Sullivan is rumoured to have advancement ambitions though, so he has clung to his current position, in the hope that he might be selected to succeed Blinken as Secretary of State.

10/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

President Biden's decision not to run for reelection throws a wrench in this though. Sullivan's path to Foggy Bottom now depends on Vice President Harris first winning the election and then choosing to promote him. Neither are assured, far from it, in fact.

11/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Per WSJ, a Harris Presidency could mean Sullivan, Blinken and Austin would all be out. The possible elevation of her own National Security Advisor, Philip Gordon, demonstrates why getting rid of Sullivan would unlikely change US policy on Ukraine.

12/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

The Democratic foreign policy/national security establishment is dominated by Obama Admin veterans. President Biden & his team share the same worldview, which at it's core is based on deep skepticism about the use of US hard power. Sullivan is just a cog in this machine.

13/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Though I'm sure Sullivan would love to be in charge himself, as John Bolton said, "I'm the National Security 𝘼𝙙𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙤𝙧, not the National Security 𝘿𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙈𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙧". President Biden is in charge, the buck stops with him, as 𝙝𝙚 has said many times.

14/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Sullivan is a convenient scapegoat for those who want to shield President Biden from responsibility for his own policy decisions. Unless, that is, you subscribe to the view that the President isn't actually running his own administration. Are his staff running the show?

15/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Some of President Biden's supporters want to have it both ways: President Biden is fully in charge, but also a helpless victim to all the bad policy decisions that Sullivan is making and implementing. I would posit that Blinken is actually the victim in all of this.

16/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

To the extent that Ukraine has any true friends in high places in the Biden Admin, it's Secretary Blinken. But he is at the mercy of an overly cautious President, an inept National Security Advisor, and an intransigent & aloof Secretary of Defense.

17/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

There is a major problem when Tony Blinken is the most hawkish person in your senior leadership team. Dissenting views on FP/NatSec within the Democratic Party are mostly outside of the administration, or occupy much more junior roles on the inside.

18/25

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Two and a half years into the war in Ukraine, President Biden has had ample opportunity for a strategy reset. He continues to face growing, bipartisan pressure in Congress to do just that, but he seems content to maintain course and finish his term with Sullivan in place.

19/25