🩸 Fear, depression and frustration

Friends, I have noticed that as soon as the market starts to show signs of confidence, fear and apathy take over again. Monday is greeted with a 10% drop in altcoins - red candles are back in play.

📑 Once again the market is testing us for strength. I would like to say again: «weak hands are being knocked out», but it seems inappropriate to repeat it for the tenth time, doesn't it?

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that when it becomes ridiculous to talk about «beating out», it is probably exactly what the market operator and its main players want.

📥 After all, it seems that even the staunchest of those who always said «keep your assets» start to lose patience and “get out of the way”. And this is exactly what the market needs.

Although, in yesterday's post I indicated that I expect it to fall even to $86k.

❕ It's important to remember: bitcoin dominance will not rise forever, ETH/BTC will not fall indefinitely, and the cycle will inevitably repeat itself. Try to indoctrinate yourself with more positive things and don't make decisions under the influence of emotions 🔥

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🔹 My opinion on Ethereum (ETH)

Friends, I often write about Bitcoin, but it's been a while since I wrote my opinion on the second most important cryptocurrency — ETH. I stand corrected...

↗️ Now we are observing an interesting picture: while Bitcoin is rebounding locally, Ethereum looks extremely bad and it continues to plummet further, despite the relatively neutral market position.

ETH is now actively trading around $3,100, but is still showing enough weakness to reach its next support level at $2,800.

— The asset is still now in a favorable range for a position set, but the set zone has widened a bit.

At this point, the $3,000 - $2,800 trading range can be considered as an entry point for a long position set. I have highlighted it with a green rectangle on the chart.

❕ Earlier I showed you the set zone up to $3,000, however, due to the sharp jump in dominance, I have to adapt to the market and make some changes in order to make a correct analysis. LFG...🔥

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🪙 Taking profits on XRP

Friends, earlier I gave a post and a small update on it, in which I talked about the large whale purchases of the XRP token that we discovered with the team through onchain analysis.

💸 Today I made the decision to close 80% of the position at +21.5% profit on the spot.

If you went in with 2x leverage, congratulations on a nice profit.

❕ Yes, using onchain analysis is not a panacea, but it often helps to detect sharp movements before they happen 🔥

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✋ The principle of optimism for life's victories

Friends, I decided to write for you a little bit of my philosophy on life. It will definitely be useful to someone.

💭 «First of all, everything that is not prohibited by the laws of physics is possible if there is sufficient knowledge, which can be obtained by trial and error.»

This is basically the principle by which most entrepreneurs and venture capitalists exist.

The success of things is not predetermined and is often uncertain.

🔤 No one wanted to invest in Airbnb because it seemed idiotic that someone would rent out rooms in their own apartment and let strangers in. And in general it sounds logical, but is not justified by reality.

This is not about the exclusion of critical thinking, but about the fact that in theory the possibility of achieving any goal is unlimited, you just need to find an approach and sensibly assess your ability to continue doing it to the end.

💸 Who's the richest man now, Elon Musk? Someone will inevitably become richer than him from scratch within 10/20/30/50 years.

Let such a person be 1 in a million who set such a goal, but it is a guaranteed outcome of events.

❕ The cycle of error > experience > behavioral correction applied wisely to specific goals will inevitably lead to their achievement. Never stop gambling 🔥

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💸 We continue to take profits on XRP

Friends, our deal on XRT continues to move upwards. Today the token updated its ATH, bringing us some more profit.

Out of the remaining 20% of the original position, I am now only locking in 10% at +42.1%.

❕ Those who entered with me - well done, although I did not give a financial recommendation 🤫

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😒 Best tips from past bull cycles

Friends, there is no point in denying the fact that there are cycles in the crypto market, which with some changes are repeated from time to time - this is how the entire global economy works.

🔤 The key thing for us: all cycles have certain similar characteristics, which stem in the fact that someone understands them at once, while someone else will need a few by lost deposits a couple of three years in the market for this.

Therefore, catch a few theses, which you are likely to derive for yourself after passing several market cycles.

1️⃣ If you don't know where your income comes from, then you are that income.

Having found or invented a new unique method of earning always try to find an answer to the question: who will be the sponsor of the banquet?

If you can not find a loser in this system, then most likely it is you.

2️⃣ The best investment is often the most unobvious option.

Most market players put money into assets/projects on the principle: everyone goes there, so it is the right way. But the paradox, as we already know, is that the market rewards A - large capitals, B - not trivial decisions.

Analyze all the tokens recently that have shown growth and surprised the market and see for yourself.

3️⃣ Trends come and go, but narratives based on true technical innovation often experience several waves of hype.

A prime example, AI. We saw the first boom for this trend in crypto more than a year ago, during the growth of projects like Fetch AI and Alethea AI.

Now the trend has revived, but in a slightly different guise.

4️⃣ Announcements of investments by venture capitalists are often made not when the investment is completed, but when it is necessary to create a hype around the project.

The crowd is easiest to manage through high-profile announcements and infoprovocations. Attracting new investments is one of such elements, so projects try to make the most of them.

❕ All cycles, regardless of their scale, remind one important thing: positive results are obtained by those who can see the essence behind the trends, and not just float on the current of information noise 🔥

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🗣 My opinion about Donald Trump's token

Friends, if there are those who suddenly missed it - we can say a historic event happened: the US President launched his own memcoin and tweeted about it.

🔤 The project is inspired by the events of the assassination attempt on Trump in July 2024. Within the first 4 hours, the token reached a capitalization of $13 billion.

My opinion ⬇️

This is on the one hand a plus for BTC — the reserve became even closer if the president triggers a meme. Plus for the SOL token itself — since the launch took place on the Solana network.

But this all led to Trump taking liquidity from other coins.

💵 People who rushed to buy the Trump coin ran to sell other coins they own, especially other memecoins on SOL.

If you believe in some sort of global scale conspiracy, then you can assume that this is how the biggest players in the market are knocking the extra passengers off the more interesting coins. But these are just my thoughts.

❕ Buying this token now is clearly not the best idea, as you will simply become liquidity for sale from those who have already earned 🐳

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🐸 I don't know what to say — I'm surprised

Honestly, I didn't expect such massive growth on Trump's tokenization. I was not able to realize the full scale of this event, because we have never seen such a thing.

🔤 What are my thoughts now?

Trump has demonstrated what the tokenization of social capital really looks like. The trend is only going to get stronger.

In the near future, we will see other famous public people start launching their own tokens.

This is positive in the one to two month perspective, as it is now an event that attracts a lot of new people into the market, but then it will dilute liquidity and lead to variance and PvP (Player versus player), lowering the valuation of each new launch of such a token.

📊 Large established memecoins will have an advantage as they already have wide access to markets and a large community. For example, WIF and PEPE.

I'd also keep a close eye on the next high-profile similar luncheon.

❕ If whoever hosts it has enough popularity and sympathy from the masses, the people who felt FOMO and skipped Trump will also quickly send the new token skyrocketing 🔥

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❓ What will happen to crypto after Trump?

Friends, any market cycle will draw situations-exceptions where in the spirit of «everyone could have made money on a lamborghini».

• Shib +166k% from the bottom.

• Pepe +14.5k% from the bottom.

• Doge +779k% from the bottom.

• Trump +41k% from the bottom.

🔤 Trump's situation clearly shows two patterns:

1️⃣ The attraction of people outside of crypto who don't know how to enter Binance, buy Solana, much less memcoin and need a step-by-step explanation.

2️⃣ How weak are the hands already of current market participants who are willing to sell all their assets and move them exclusively into Trump's token.

Every alt-season cycle punishes such weaklings who jump back and forth on fomo trying to catch their loot. Considering how the rest of the sector has lost weight in capitalizations, this just confirms the fact about weak hands.

📥 That's why I wanted to compare (watch the screenshot) what's happening with bitcoin and alt dominance against the performance of doge and shib in the last cycle.

On the chart 1 - bitcoin dominance, 2 - doge quotes, 3 - shib quotes, 4 - alts dominance)

As you could notice, when doge started an active growth phase, bitcoin dominance staggered, but alts began to grow intensively.

💸 Then the case with shib only intensified the dominance of alts, which gave the alt season for the rest of the tokens regardless of the sector.

In Trump's situation, I'm waiting for more token launches from his family and then this trend will come to naught.

The upside is that this is more of a political meta that doesn't live long. And Trump himself realizes this with his team, who are aggressively buying the same ETH through their fund.

😐 When this meta goes to zero, people will again run to find something else, because they are already automatically drawn into the crypto industry.

They were given the example with Trump that you can just make money on crypto: buy it at $10 and sell it at $50 — now you can continue to get rich on crypto (which isn't really true)

❕ I didn't realize how masses of people would come into this cycle, but Trump clarified it for me. If you've already placed your bets and are confident in them, the market will yield 🔥

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💸 Trump is actively recruiting altcoins

Friends, today Trump officially became the Presidency of the United States, but that's not what this simple one is about.

🔤 Donald Trump's official fund, Trump's World Liberty, has today purchased several coins for its investment portfolio, of which:

ETH, LINK, TRX, and AAVE - each purchased for $4.7 million. As well as ENA at $470k.

It is worth taking note, this man obviously knows what to buy and what assets to expect strong growth impulses from, if you follow him, I think you will not lose. There are a lot of influential people around him who influence this (not financial advice).

❕ I have already informed you about these assets many times, but this factor once again confirms their further growth prospects 🐳

If you want a big post about Trump and his connection to crypto, hit 🔥

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😐 Trump, memes, and the crypto market: what's the connection?

Friends, there’s no need to discuss how the Trump family shook up the market with their meme launches, which many people massively profited from — you already know the story.

What’s more interesting is to talk about the consequences and the impact Trump has made on the crypto space through such performances.

💵 Many understand that the token launches were intentionally timed just before the inauguration, which successfully took place yesterday. According to the U.S. Constitution, the president cannot abuse their office for personal enrichment.

So far, this hasn’t affected things much, and everything looks quite positive, but the future is uncertain — impeachment is still on the table.

🔤 Here’s the current situation:

1️⃣ Two major launches in a row (TRUMP and MELANIA) drained liquidity from other assets. Every sector, from L2 to AI, was affected.

People were massively selling off their assets, likely at a loss, in hopes of catching the «life chain change.» But we know how it ended for 90% of people.

During the spike in activity, Phantom wallet received over 8,000,000 requests per minute, and Moonshot reached the top spot in the App Store.

2️⃣ Celebrity token trend. While there hasn't been a huge boom yet, many media figures, including members of the Trump family, inspired by the success, are hinting at launching their own tokens. For example, just yesterday, «Trump’s maid» did it 😁.

P.S. A few days ago, the Liberty Reserve wallet purchased the domains Trumpcoin.eth, EricTrump.eth, and BarronTrump.eth. Just a thought...

🐸 It’s likely that people will quickly tire of these launches, given the huge amount of scams coming from various figures. The attention will likely shift to more substantial projects, like tier-1 meme coins and the AI sector.

This will be the natural progression for the newly arrived masses. If they made money on a meme, why go anywhere else?

3️⃣ Solana in top form. Liquidity has flowed into it in abundance. The key now is to ensure that this is new capital that can sustain the growth of the market moving forward.

The ETH launch on Solana has gotten much closer, as, essentially, the president personally approved its legitimacy.

4️⃣ Donald’s fund, Trump’s World Liberty, is actively buying crypto. Yesterday, it made several large purchases: ETH, LINK, TRX, and AAVE, each worth around $4.7 million.

Currently, the company holds crypto worth $326 million, with over 60% of it in ETH.

5️⃣ Trump appointed Mark Ueda, a well-known crypto industry supporter, as acting chairman of the SEC.

6️⃣ The president has already begun signing his first executive orders, and soon, some of them will directly affect our sector.

According to the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, they’ve received confirmation that the first 200 executive orders include cryptocurrency.

❕ It’s important to note that any negative news right now could seriously crash the market. Against the backdrop of such positivity, this could create a major imbalance and fear in people’s minds. If you’re holding your assets, keep doing so, as, based on the current narrative, the influx of fresh liquidity is quite close 🔥

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💸 Whale buys back LDO

Today with the team we discovered that a major market capital bought back $4.9 million worth of LDO coin today.

🔤 I will say right away that I do not hold this coin in my portfolio, but maybe it will be useful for someone.

It is worth noting that during the recent market corrections this asset is holding up much better than the bulk of altcoins, which demonstrates the special power of buybacks in it.

❕ I think that big capital also perfectly sees the strength in the asset and expects a good rebound from it. Following which, from the marked level there is a probability to see the asset's further exit to $2.4+ 🔥

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😎 Lots of positive news, but where's the growth?

Friends, despite the constant stream of positive news - rumors of new ETFs, institutional investor purchases, a strategic fund, optimistic forecasts from major banks and influencers — the market continues to slowly decline.

The natural question that arises is, “Why is this happening?”

🔤 As CZ (founder of Binance) said, “good things don't happen quickly.” Perhaps, before the fundamentals start to materialize, the market maker is first driving the market down to gather liquidity and more.

This is logical — the current optimism and daily news every day encourages participants to open longs with leverage. I think that the realization of all news and events, as it happens most often, will go the opposite way.

💸 The market always works according to its own rules. Quick and obvious growth without prior “hamster razors” would be too predictable.

Most likely, we will see another run down, where the missing liquidity will be collected, and then we can expect the realization of the potential, which is now accumulating.

❕ In general, given everything that is happening in the crypto industry, it feels like we are on the verge of something really big. Perhaps later, when we look back, we will laugh at our doubts and wish we could return to this moment in time to seize the opportunities 🐳

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🪙 Solana is tearing up the market

Friends, Solana becomes the first network in history to surpass $200 billion in monthly trading volume on DEX (decentralized exchanges)!

This is what memcoins are doing on Solana.....

🔤 Keep in mind that because the asset is in such high demand, it will grow and grow. Moreover, regardless of the general state of the market, since people in any market purchase the coin to pay the commission in this network.

— That is why Solana is one of the most promising coins on the market.

In addition to the fact that the project itself is very strong, it is also maximally demanded — which creates some of the best conditions for the growth of the asset.

❕ This year I expect the coin to go above $500 and the main growth for this will be a new surge in memcoins 🔥

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🪙 Top 20 tokens from Grayscale

Friends, once a quarter, one of the oldest crypto businesses, Grayscale Fund, publishes a report on the state of the crypto market. The company manages over $30 billion for its clients across two ETFs based on BTC and ETH.

So I decided to review the main findings of the report

🔤 Grayscale Research analysts evaluate hundreds of crypto projects and select the most promising ones. Objective: to rebalance the portfolio and build a quality reputation in the information field to attract clients.

In the coming quarter, tokens related to the following trends are relevant:
— US elections and industry regulation.
— AI - particularly AI agents.
— Solana ecosystems.

💸 Grayscale's list of top coins (not a financial recommendation):

• Bitcoin (BTC).
• Ethereum (ETH).
• Solana (SOL).
• Chainlink (LINK) — a decentralized oracle network.
• Sui (SUI) — blockchain for DeFi applications.
• Uniswap (UNI) — DEX.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE) — blockchain for DeFi applications.
• Aave (AAVE) — the largest DeFi lending platform.
• Bittensor (TAO) — an infrastructure blockchain project within AI.
• Ethena (ENA) — USDe stablecoin.
• Optimism (OP) — L2 protocol and smart contract platform on Ethereum.
• Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) — Base-based platform for creating AI agents.
• Lido DAO (LDO) — a liquid steaking protocol.
• Helium (HNT) —Blockchain-based DeFi network for Internet of Things devices.
• Arweave (AR) — A protocol for perpetual data storage.
• Jupiter (JUP) — DEX aggregator on the Solana network.
• Aerodrome (AERO) — automated market maker and liquidity center on Base.
• Akash Network (AKT) — DeFi cloud computing platform.
• Jito (JTO) — The largest liquidity steaking protocol on the Solana network.
• Grass (GRASS) — a physical infrastructure project.

But let me also add my opinion ⬇️

I believe that buying 20-30 tokens per portfolio is too much. If your goal is to get hundreds and thousands of percent profit, you need to make concentrated bets.

❕ That is, select the 10 best coins from the most promising sectors and invest only in them. This way your prospects for big profits are multiplied. Good luck 🔥

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💸 Result on public deals for 3 months

Friends, hello everyone. I decided to summarize the results of the deals I wrote about in the channel for the last 3 months.

🔤 I will summarize the results I got myself. Please note that I attach links to the posts. You can see and check everything yourself.

Where I say about minus trades, it means that I was closed by stop-loss.

✅ Profitable:
• AVAX. I closed the first part of the position +22% (70% of the position) and +49% (30% of the position).
• APT. I expected to see a rise to $19, but the token rose to $15.3, so I went to breakeven.
• EIGEN. I personally recorded a result of +60%. In the post, I also recommended leaving 50% of the position at your discretion. If you did that, you could safely lock in the second part of the position at +110-120%.
• PENGU. The token was giving +38% at the moment, but I ended up closing it at a small plus +6%.
• ETH. I continue to hold this trade. It is currently trading at +14,5%.
• XRP. The first part in 80% of the position was fixed at +21.5%. Next 10% of the position was recorded at +42.1%. The remaining 10% I continue to hold.
• LDO. I continue to hold the trade - it's near breakeven now.

❌ Minus:
• SOL. In this trade I recorded a loss of -11%.
• CULT. I did not enter this trade myself, but if you bought at the values I mentioned in the post, you would now have -33%.
• ACT. This trade I closed at -19%.

As you can see, profitable trades multiply the result of losing trades.

I have not listed all the trades that my team and I make, but despite this the result is very good. If you consider that you could have traded with a conservative 2x leverage, then the profit would have been mega great.

❕ Keep in mind, this is the result we showed in a rather inactive market. When many altcoins start their growth, then we will make a multiple of the profit 🔥

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💵 Chinese developer «destroyed» NVIDIA

Comrades, hello, everyone. We will start discussing this topic with charts. V-shaped reversals are observed on many assets now, which adds confidence in the market strength and in the continuation of the uptrend.

Let's face it — the charts look much better today than they did a couple days ago.

🔤 Even AI-projects, which yesterday sagged on the background of panic around DeepSeek, today began to regain their positions. The market has digested the news, realized that nothing catastrophic has happened, and began to adequately assess what is happening.

Even Trump said today — «the emergence of DeepSeek is a positive, because competition always leads to development».

🔎 But it's amazing how fragile the market can be. A vigorous media effort and a competent pitch from Chinese marketers — and we see the largest stock lose a record amount in value IN AMERICA'S HISTORY. Just think about it.

NVIDIA lost $589 billion in capitalization in a single trading session, and the U.S. stock market as a whole lost $2 trillion.

For comparison, that's the equivalent of bitcoin's entire capitalization. Just think about this scale.

By the way, this comparison clearly shows that the crypto market has a huge potential for growth. Even in moments of global panic and market revaluation, crypto still has prospects for further development.

❕ Therefore, we remain positive and keep working. Today's noise is just another stage on the way to more 🐳

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💰 The US is betting big on bitcoin

Friends, a dually important piece of news broke today: US Senator Cynthia Lummis today officially announced (live on air) plans to make the country's strategic reserve in bitcoin, viz:

• Buy 200,000 BTC annually for 5 years.
• Hold for at least 20 years.

🔖 The goal of this whole endeavor is to cut the US national debt in half in 20 years. Here I have a couple of complaints as an economist, then we'll talk about it more closely.

A very loud statement that should attract a huge amount of liquidity into the market. After such news, many people who are not even related to crypto will run to buy :)

❕ However, this in turn may lead to a good local takeout.

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🪙 XRP is reorganizing the market rules

After Trump's election victory, the Ripple token (XRP) rose almost 500%: from $0.55 to $3.4. For two and a half months, the growth has not stopped.

This immediately begs the question: has such dramatic growth run out of steam?

📈 Why is XRP growing so much?

1️⃣ Political factor.
In early January, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse met with Trump. The news immediately fueled rumors of high level support for XRP and the early launch of an ETF.

2️⃣ XRP futures in two weeks?
A test version of CME Group's website appeared on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's “beta.cmegroup” subdomain announcing the launch of SOL and XRP futures on Feb. 10. The site is said to have posted the page by mistake.

The exchange has already announced orders for spot ETH-SOL. On timing: the market still expects a launch no earlier than mid-March.

There have been no official announcements on XRP yet.

3️⃣ Whales have become more active.
The number of addresses holding XRP worth $100k or more grew from 14k to 108.5k in just two months immediately after Trump's victory.

Trump himself is not giving any statement on the coin. Moreover, his fund World Liberty Financial, which just invested in ETH, TRX, AAVE and other tokens, has no investment in Ripple.

🔤 Crypto future as a benchmark

In mid-December 2024, the New York Department of Financial Services approved Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin RLUSD for trading. The start of testing began back in April.

Garlinghouse expects the asset to become the “gold standard for the corporate sector” and will be in demand for RWA, DeFi and classic payments.

Against this backdrop, XRP jumped 10% in a couple hours. In general, it is already on the third line of the largest cryptocurrencies by capitalization.

❕ Meetings with Trump, launching a stablecoin, dominating the SEC - the market sees that Ripple has its own channels to achieve its goals. That's probably why so many whales have decided to invest in the coin, or perhaps know the insights 🔥

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🤔 January was nerve-wracking, but February....

Friends, in case anyone missed it, on Wednesday there was a Fed meeting — as a result, the rate was left at the same level (4.5%)

The market reacted to the news with a slight correction of 1.5%, but soon rebounded and quickly recovered to the initial levels ($103,800).

🔤 I believe this gives even more confidence that 2025 will still be a bullish year. January certainly rattled the nerves of many newcomers — but that said, the monthly BTC candle could still close bullish, which would create a good base for a February rally.

The fundamentals around crypto are getting stronger. Every day new states are considering BTC strategic reserve bills.

— The first reviews and approvals for altcoin ETF applications have begun, and Litecoin is one of the top contenders.

💸 Crypto supporters are taking key positions on Trump's team, the SEC is opening up to digital assets, and now it looks like the Fed may be going after our digital gold as well.

I have attached to the post a chart of the difference between the capitalizations of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the current cycle. I have a feeling the slingshot is being drawn for the shot.

❕ So far, things are shaping up realistically well, as painful and unpleasant as January was. Hopefully we are being set up for a super cycle 🔥

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🔹 Is Solana killing Ethereum?

Friends, after Solana's recent new all-time high of $295, caused by a number of major meme token launches on this blockchain, many people started claiming that it's time to move money from ETH to SOL.

🔤 This was also driven by negativity towards Ethereum, as it now looks an order of magnitude weaker than bitcoin. But what is this - a local FUD or a really alarming signal?

To better understand the situation, it's worth going back to the origins of the launch of Ethereum and how the crowd treated it.

🪙 In 2019, Ethereum was heavily criticized. At the time, the price of ETH was moving between $100-300, and Twitter was actively discussing that the era of ICOs was over and no one needed ether anymore.

It seemed to be one of the underdogs, as it did not react in any way to the growth of bitcoin.

In addition, at the end of 2020, when ETH was trading at $500-600 after the ATH of $1400 at that time, many people were sure that altcoins would never be on par with bitcoin.

The main reason: institutional investors had already arrived, and altcoins weren't taking off.

📥 In 2022, when Ethereum was again at a crossroads, a new wave of skepticism erupted on social media, «Ethereum has lost its leadership.» This was amidst the launch of major projects and new initiatives in the blockchain industry.

— At that moment, the price of ETH was around $1,700, but there were still claims that Ethereum was on the verge of decline. But despite this skepticism, it was back on top again.

Moreover, instead of the usual horizontal accumulation, we witnessed a sharp «vertical» growth.

🔎 Today we see the familiar doubts again, «Alts will not be able to catch up with bitcoin». These fears are repeated year after year, but the market continues to grow despite pessimistic forecasts.

It is definitely not worth burying ETH. It still has a huge potential, which can be realized thanks to the interest of large capitals.

Trump is actively accumulating ether through his fund Trump's World Liberty.

❕ Fear of certain assets is as cyclical as the market itself. While some flip from unprofitable assets to more «promising» ones, others keep their cool - and win in the long run 🔥

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