💸 The alt season has begun?

Friends, I think that many people did not expect to see such an outcome in the market, as after the first red candles from bitcoin many people had a little panic. But, what did we end up with?

🔤 At this point, most altcoins started showing pretty strong gains. Falling domination + falling bitcoin = rising altcoin. Even that happens. Not often, of course, but once every 4 years can be anything.

In fact, it reminds all this rebalancing of positions by a large participant. It doesn't mean that bitcoin won't grow at all now, but it's a good signal that we may have taken the first step towards that long awaited alt season.

If dominance continues to decline, the altcoin should not fall even from bitcoin's correction below $90k, where it is already more likely to find a firmer level of support.

❕ With falling domination, if BTC becomes sideways, we could witness a nice explosion in altcoins. This includes a good rise in Ethereum 🔥

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🐋 Whale is gaining on PENGU

Friends, today with the team discovered that a major wallet purchased a PENGU coin today totaling $15.5 million.

I think a lot of people don't know about this new token by
so let me explain ⬇️

🔤 PENGU is a token from the Pudgy Penguins NFT collection.

It went on the market about a week ago and gave out a pretty big retrodrop. The tokens were distributed to almost everyone on old wallets on Solana and Ethereum networks, to holders of different NFT collections and coins.

The drop hit 7 million wallets, and the average reward was 8,000 PENGU tokens ($220).

Although the asset is fresh, its capitalization has already surpassed $3.2 billion and the project has started gaining very large parters.

❕ Given the current actions of a major player, one can see that this asset should be expected to start to gain significant growth momentum. The coveted upside exit should be seen from the noted trading range (not a financial recommendation) 🔥

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↗️ My opinion about the current market

Friends, I'll tell you right away that the market is still without much change. Bitcoin continues to move in its sideways range ($93-$99k), and domination is also treading in one place.

🔤 Personally, I don't expect to wait for strong fluctuations in the market ahead of the New Year holidays. The recovery of altcoins should be expected only after the new year.

Now we should pay more attention to the dominance itself than to the bitcoin rate, as the main problem at the current stage of the market is the high dominance of bitcoin, which simply does not allow the altcoin to breathe normally and fly upwards.

In January we should finally see the domination drop below 55%, which will open a direct path to the altcoin season.

📥 Yes, there is a possibility that when Trump takes office but doesn't begin to fulfill his commitments, it will negatively impact the market.

BUT...I think in such a case, the negativity will only go towards bitcoin: people selling bitcoin and moving money into altcoins.

❕ In the meantime, we are further seeing localized razor-sharpness of players who are trading long and collecting lower liquidity. After the current accumulation, we are in for a strong pullback to the upside, especially in the alts sector 🔥

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🐸 How FOMO works

Friends, the worst thing that can happen to you, especially in a bull market is to succumb to fomo and start doing dimensionless things.

So I decided to write for you the stages of this phenomenon that buries a huge number of deposits.

📥 The initial stage

1. Participants take positions in key assets with high conviction.
2. Every few weeks a new meta emerges - a current trend, dominant strategy or asset.
3. The stampede begins.
4. Those who have prepared in advance and entered the new meta experience euphoria. Their strategies begin to generate returns. They actively increase their positions, feeling that their idea is fully vindicated.

🗿 The doubts of the rest of the participants
5. Participants with low conviction begin to feel insecure: "Are my positions bad? Are they doomed? Should I change everything?".
6. Such thoughts haunt you for days. Eventually you decide, "This coin is already missing, never mind," and leave it at that.

📈 Growth of new meta
7. A week goes by and the new metha participants continue to write about the new trend.
8. Interest grows, goals become more ambitious.
9. Gradually you become convinced that the new meta is really promising.
10. The risk seems to be decreasing and you decide to act.

📉 Trend Decline
11. the meta reaches its "risk curve" - the phase where participants who entered earlier start switching to new assets.
12. The leader (some token) of this meta loses its growth rate.
13. You switch to smaller assets hoping for high returns, but your conviction is low.

While profit is possible, you realize that the goals are so inflated that it is extremely difficult to realize them.

⚔️ Starting PVP
14. The meta becomes competitive: participants in favorable positions begin to actively capture profits.
15. Meta gradually fades, a new trend is formed.

🔄 Cycle repeats
16. Early adopters become prominent in the community, seem brilliant because of successful predictions.
17. You meanwhile remain in the previous meta, pondering whether to wait for interest to return or to rotate. You decide to wait, as the new meta seems too risky.
18. Days or weeks pass, the new meta gains popularity, the risk seems lower, and you decide to get into it again.

🔤 The main lessons learned are.
— Conviction is more important than anything else - develop a core hypothesis, convince yourself of its validity and stick to it.
— Patience is the key to success. If your hypothesis is correct, sooner or later you will be on trend.
— A plan is the basis for action. Don't give in to emotion and stay focused.
— Don't chase the crowd. Late entrants always contribute to inflated goals as they need to justify their decision.

Put 🔥 if you like this kind of post

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🪙 Whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin

Friends, once upon a time news about whales (big capitals) buying up Bitcoin used to cause a storm of emotions in the market. Today, it has become commonplace.

We are in a bull market.

💵 Based on onchain data, there is about $7 billion of capital flowing into the market every week. This is a clear sign of continued growth.

It is important to realize that the current situation is far from a bubble:
1️⃣ A bubble is formed when the price significantly exceeds the amount of incoming capital. This is clearly not the case now.
2️⃣ Corrections are possible, but even if Bitcoin falls by 30%, this pullback is likely to be short-lived, followed by growth that will compensate for the losses.

The chart above shows that the current values of the MVRV indicator (blue color) are far from the peak areas of the bubble (area 6-8, and now 1.8), as it was in the past cycles.

We clearly haven't reached the top yet.

The current Bitcoin cycle is far from a peak, and it is too early to talk about a bear market. If someone claims otherwise, perhaps they are just ignoring the onchain data.

❕There may be corrections, but the long-term outlook remains positive. Whales continue to accumulate assets and the market is rising 🔥

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🔹 Will 2025 Bring an ETH Pump?

Friends, hello everyone. ETH/BTC chart, ether purchases over the last 2 weeks, position set in the $3,330 area, flows into ETH ETFs, seasonality — all this lately has been signaling a possible start of funds overflow into Ethereum and its ecosystem.

1️⃣ ETH/BTC chart: we see the beginning of bottom formation and structure change on the weekly timeframe.

2️⃣ ETH buybacks for the last 2 weeks: if you noticed, lately on the downswings ether is bought back more strongly than btc every time.

3️⃣ Positions set in the $3,330 area: this level has already become like a magnet for the ETH price, where we have fallen to more than once, but each time we flew away from this zone on higher volumes, which signals a position set by a major participant.

4️⃣ Flows in ETH ETFs: judging by the flows in US spot crypto ETFs, a shift from BTC to ETH may have begun last week (inflows into ETH were recorded against outflows from BTC).

5️⃣ Seasonality: historically, the first quarter of the year is a bullish quarter for Ethereum. As a rule, ETH shows growth for 3 months in a row.

Overall, we see a few dry facts. In addition to these, there are a few other fundamentals that would contribute to our forecast, but it seems that the aforementioned are enough.

❕ Things look realistically good enough right now. We may be nearing the end of the correction and have a new wave of 1-2 months of gains ahead of us 🔥

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💸 What happens to the market in 2025

Friends, hello everyone. First of all I would like to wish you a happy new year. The only thing I want to wish you for 2025 is to believe in yourself.

🔤 Do what you truly enjoy, and then the long awaited Lifechenge will definitely come. As hackneyed as this phrase may sound, the simplest things are often the most effective when approached in the right way.

Now let's talk about the market ⬇️

Bitcoin domination started to move according to our plan and collapsed below 57% today.

🐸 Thanks to this correction, after being stagnant for quite some time, the altcoin sector finally came to life and showed a nice rebound.

This month, the dominance should fall below 56% and the alts will in turn begin an active recovery to its upper levels. We are now at the beginning of the violent growth of alts, our main task is to sit still, do not give in to emotions and do not take any unforeseen actions early.

❕ Have patience, things will be coming soon. However, only those who have patience will be rewarded. Passengers who want everything and at once, as always will be thrown out of the market by the usual manipulations 🔥

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📈 Two weeks until Trump's inauguration

Friends, 2025, as has become a tradition, has started off with a strong rise, with BTC making its way back to the $100k mark.

📊 There's more movement ahead, especially with Trump's inauguration coming up (January 20), which promises to be a catalyst for new discussions around the crypto.

The key moment is Trump's speech after accepting office.

The key question now is whether he will mention crypto again as «vividly» as he did in his campaign program. This could set the tone for the coming months, if not years.

At the same time, there is growing confidence among major market players that Trump's arrival will usher in a new era for the market.

🔎 This opinion is shared by those who look at the situation from a global perspective, rather than limiting themselves to the framework of «so long or short with 50 leverage?».

However, we should be prepared for volatility at the inauguration.

We may see the classic pattern «buy the rumor, sell the fact». But this is more of a local dynamic. Globally, we also have a number of other factors superimposed on the inauguration, including seasonal patterns and cycles.

— For example, take a look at the halving charts (see screenshot): since 2014, there has been a clear seasonal pattern that is triggered after the New Year. This only adds to the confidence in the long-term outlook.

❕ Everyone has already made their bets, and now we have to wait for the market's revelations. Our team is already back to work and we are ready to make maximum profit from this market 🔥

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🪙 $0.001 per BTC - BlackRock will do it all

Friends, I'll start this post with a quote: “There is no guarantee that the 21 million bitcoin limit will not be changed” - stated on the iShares website, owned by BlackRock.

The fixed issue is one of the key factors in the coin's popularity. Discussions about changing the limit have been going on for a long time and are getting hotter.

Really may change the number of bitcoins soon - or is it a fake?

💵 More number - more clarity

Today, the smallest available unit of bitcoin is a satoshi, equal to 0.00000001 BTC.

A large fractional part can cause confusion in calculations, which is why the conversion of “one satoshi to one BTC” has been discussed for years.

This change will not affect issuance - just the bitcoin limit will increase by “ten to the eighth”: from 21 million to 2.1 quadrillion coins.

Accordingly, the rate of the first cryptocurrency will fall by 100 million units: for example, from $100 thousand to $0.001 per BTC.

🤔 New code - new asset

Bitcoin is a computer code. Therefore, in order to change the model of operation, you need to adjust the algorithm itself. Formally it is very realistic, but in practice it is still difficult to realize.

If the developers, whales and the community as a whole agree, the programming team will integrate the changes into Bitcoin Core. Next, all nodes must accept the changes or be forced offline.

However, even if this happens, there remains another layer - users and investors voting for the coin with their money.

💰 Bitcoin is a dream of a perfect world

BTC is an attempt to fulfill dreams of a stable efficient economy. The growing popularity of the coin has less to do with its uniqueness than with the growing hope in the workability of the model itself.

Of course, BlackRock is right - the number of bits can indeed be changed, especially with the help of quantum technologies.

❕ However, if the fund really believed in these prospects, it would hardly promote its BTC-ETF so actively - BlackRock now accounts for almost 50% of the total market and 2.7% of the total BTC supply 🔥

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🐋 Whales buy up alts via OTC

Friends, I propose to touch on a rather interesting topic today. After the US presidential election, the over-the-counter (OTC) market is booming in terms of volumes and number of transactions.

At the same time, representatives of exchanges note high interest in assets other than BTC and ETH.

What does the long-awaited altcoin season think? There are nuances...

📑 Peculiarities of OTC deals

Over-the-Counter (OTC) trading is an opportunity for large players to make transactions without going to the open market.

— OTC trades are not reflected in the quote stack and do not affect the price.

When two whales know each other personally, they can simply transfer money from one wallet to another. Both got what they wanted - paying less fees and no liquidity issues.

If they do not know each other personally, they can use the services of OTC-platforms - intermediaries in transactions, controlling the correctness of all actions.

🟡 What is happening with crypto?

After Trump's victory, the bitcoin rate jumped by more than 50% - at the peak it updated the ATH of $108 thousand. The capitalization of the entire market grew with it.

1️⃣ Representatives of the Kraken crypto exchange noted the growth of OTC-trading volumes by 220% over the year - other platforms record similar statistics.

2️⃣ Wintermute (the largest market maker) said that during the year they had large clients who decided to make transactions only after the election.

GSR notes that institutionalists are showing strong demand not only for cryptocurrencies with official ETFs, but also for alts.

📉 Potential is not growth

Risk appetite is on the rise, and with it demand for Solana, BNB Chain, Tron and Aave - according to Wintermute statistics. Key reason - they are the most liquid amongst alts.

💬 “Liquidity is the biggest driver for organizations. They're looking for where they can invest more,” noted Wintermute's Jake Ostrovskis.

Despite the large number of “hidden” trades on the fund, real volumes in darkpools have not grown much: in 2009, they represented about 10% of all market cap trading, but in 2020. - only 14%.

Similarly in crypto: a two-fold increase in OTC activity does not reflect the whole picture.

However, the trend itself is important: whales are looking for opportunities to make money and see great potential in liquid altcoins.

❕ The growth of OTC deals can be seen as an indicator of the growing interest of whales in alts, who are clearly waiting for the launch of options, the start of the ETF on Solana, and other cryptopositives from Trump.

Which posts do you feel more comfortable reading?

🐳 — Long ones like this one
🔥 — Shorter ones

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🐸 Why is it harder this time?

Friends, here is a little message from me.

📥 In this cycle, there are many more investors in the crypto market than before, so the «shake» to the desired growth will also be stronger and tougher.

This is done so that as many people as possible would sell their coins at a loss without getting the desired profit.

It is very important to understand and take this factor into account.

I have already repeatedly broadcast this thought, but I will not stop doing it. I want you to earn, not become the 95% who will lose.

❕ If suddenly you do not understand how to act at some stage of the market, simply look at the actions of major players and follow them, you will not be mistaken. Time-tested 🔥

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💸 US presidential inauguration = opening of the alt season

Friends, I found an interesting infographic for you, the attached chart clearly shows that after every US presidential inauguration, there is always a strong growth in the alt sector.

🔎 This has been the case in the last 3 cycles, and immediately after the inauguration, there is a huge inflow of large liquidity (money) into the alts, which very easily sends the assets to new highs.

This is roughly the scenario we should see this year. After the inauguration, I expect a smooth but steady rise, especially in alts.

Trump's inauguration this year will be on January 20. Waiting...

🔤 Also, let's not forget about:

— Firing the head of the SEC, known for his opposition to cryptocurrencies, may create a more favorable environment for the growth of the industry.

— Countries buying BTC and making it a strategic reserve. Yesterday, Bhutan added BTC, ETH and BNB to its strategic reserve

— Billions of dollars in FTX reorganization payments started

— «The Halfing Effect» - BTC's shrinking preposition is starting to have an impact

— BTC ETF has raised more money than ever in its first year of existence

❕ If you're worried about your portfolio - just don't log into the exchange for the next couple months 🔥

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🪙 Big increase in XRP trading

Friends, yesterday large holders of XRP coin sharply increased their activity and bought a total of $2.4 billion over the last 24 hours!

Such significant buybacks have not been seen in a long time.....

🔤 However, every time after such bursts of buybacks from whale addresses, the coin's rate always reacted with a good growth after a short time.

You can see the confirmation of this in the attached chart.

❕ Therefore, if you are suddenly considering local purchases, you can take a closer look at this coin (not financial advice) 🔥

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📈 XRP is already enjoying good growth. Since the moment of the post, the token has given almost +7%.

We continue to follow...

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💵 My crypto market forecast

Friends, let's break down what we are locally observing in the market.

🔤 Right now we are seeing an almost stationary market. But as I mentioned to you earlier — further reversal should happen either after a good sideways movement or after reaching values at which all local liquidity will be successfully collected. In our case, that's ~$86k.

In both cases, the market sentiment will neutralize, which will open the door for the desired reversal to take place. So far, ours is exactly following our scenario.

🔖 However, keep in mind that the desired reversal will happen very abruptly and unexpectedly (for the bulk of people), so at the current stage of the market we should expect the following ⬇️

Bitcoin's corrective movement should be allowed up to ~$86,000, after which we should see the completion of the pullback and a confident exit to $100,000.

❕ Very much like the calm before the storm.....🔥

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🩸 Fear, depression and frustration

Friends, I have noticed that as soon as the market starts to show signs of confidence, fear and apathy take over again. Monday is greeted with a 10% drop in altcoins - red candles are back in play.

📑 Once again the market is testing us for strength. I would like to say again: «weak hands are being knocked out», but it seems inappropriate to repeat it for the tenth time, doesn't it?

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that when it becomes ridiculous to talk about «beating out», it is probably exactly what the market operator and its main players want.

📥 After all, it seems that even the staunchest of those who always said «keep your assets» start to lose patience and “get out of the way”. And this is exactly what the market needs.

Although, in yesterday's post I indicated that I expect it to fall even to $86k.

❕ It's important to remember: bitcoin dominance will not rise forever, ETH/BTC will not fall indefinitely, and the cycle will inevitably repeat itself. Try to indoctrinate yourself with more positive things and don't make decisions under the influence of emotions 🔥

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🔹 My opinion on Ethereum (ETH)

Friends, I often write about Bitcoin, but it's been a while since I wrote my opinion on the second most important cryptocurrency — ETH. I stand corrected...

↗️ Now we are observing an interesting picture: while Bitcoin is rebounding locally, Ethereum looks extremely bad and it continues to plummet further, despite the relatively neutral market position.

ETH is now actively trading around $3,100, but is still showing enough weakness to reach its next support level at $2,800.

— The asset is still now in a favorable range for a position set, but the set zone has widened a bit.

At this point, the $3,000 - $2,800 trading range can be considered as an entry point for a long position set. I have highlighted it with a green rectangle on the chart.

❕ Earlier I showed you the set zone up to $3,000, however, due to the sharp jump in dominance, I have to adapt to the market and make some changes in order to make a correct analysis. LFG...🔥

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🪙 Taking profits on XRP

Friends, earlier I gave a post and a small update on it, in which I talked about the large whale purchases of the XRP token that we discovered with the team through onchain analysis.

💸 Today I made the decision to close 80% of the position at +21.5% profit on the spot.

If you went in with 2x leverage, congratulations on a nice profit.

❕ Yes, using onchain analysis is not a panacea, but it often helps to detect sharp movements before they happen 🔥

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✋ The principle of optimism for life's victories

Friends, I decided to write for you a little bit of my philosophy on life. It will definitely be useful to someone.

💭 «First of all, everything that is not prohibited by the laws of physics is possible if there is sufficient knowledge, which can be obtained by trial and error.»

This is basically the principle by which most entrepreneurs and venture capitalists exist.

The success of things is not predetermined and is often uncertain.

🔤 No one wanted to invest in Airbnb because it seemed idiotic that someone would rent out rooms in their own apartment and let strangers in. And in general it sounds logical, but is not justified by reality.

This is not about the exclusion of critical thinking, but about the fact that in theory the possibility of achieving any goal is unlimited, you just need to find an approach and sensibly assess your ability to continue doing it to the end.

💸 Who's the richest man now, Elon Musk? Someone will inevitably become richer than him from scratch within 10/20/30/50 years.

Let such a person be 1 in a million who set such a goal, but it is a guaranteed outcome of events.

❕ The cycle of error > experience > behavioral correction applied wisely to specific goals will inevitably lead to their achievement. Never stop gambling 🔥

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💸 We continue to take profits on XRP

Friends, our deal on XRT continues to move upwards. Today the token updated its ATH, bringing us some more profit.

Out of the remaining 20% of the original position, I am now only locking in 10% at +42.1%.

❕ Those who entered with me - well done, although I did not give a financial recommendation 🤫

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😒 Best tips from past bull cycles

Friends, there is no point in denying the fact that there are cycles in the crypto market, which with some changes are repeated from time to time - this is how the entire global economy works.

🔤 The key thing for us: all cycles have certain similar characteristics, which stem in the fact that someone understands them at once, while someone else will need a few by lost deposits a couple of three years in the market for this.

Therefore, catch a few theses, which you are likely to derive for yourself after passing several market cycles.

1️⃣ If you don't know where your income comes from, then you are that income.

Having found or invented a new unique method of earning always try to find an answer to the question: who will be the sponsor of the banquet?

If you can not find a loser in this system, then most likely it is you.

2️⃣ The best investment is often the most unobvious option.

Most market players put money into assets/projects on the principle: everyone goes there, so it is the right way. But the paradox, as we already know, is that the market rewards A - large capitals, B - not trivial decisions.

Analyze all the tokens recently that have shown growth and surprised the market and see for yourself.

3️⃣ Trends come and go, but narratives based on true technical innovation often experience several waves of hype.

A prime example, AI. We saw the first boom for this trend in crypto more than a year ago, during the growth of projects like Fetch AI and Alethea AI.

Now the trend has revived, but in a slightly different guise.

4️⃣ Announcements of investments by venture capitalists are often made not when the investment is completed, but when it is necessary to create a hype around the project.

The crowd is easiest to manage through high-profile announcements and infoprovocations. Attracting new investments is one of such elements, so projects try to make the most of them.

❕ All cycles, regardless of their scale, remind one important thing: positive results are obtained by those who can see the essence behind the trends, and not just float on the current of information noise 🔥

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