🔎 Who could be a “dark horse”?

Friends, hello, everyone. I decided to make an interesting post for you.

📑 Right now I advise you to take a closer look at the SUI ecosystem. Yes, the SUI token itself is growing and today it is a top gainer on Binance, but beyond that there is an ecosystem.

And these are protocols, DeFi, infrastructure and of course memtokens.

There is a rumor on memes that SUI is now actively thinking about how to launch a parade of memes and liquidity inflow through them into the whole ecosystem of this blockchain.

💵 What do we have today?

• The first “dogs and cats” that are already showing hundreds of percent growth.
• Grayscale has opened a fund on SUI for qualified investors.
• The last 30 days have seen a significant increase in transactions within the network, as well as transfers into the network via bridges.

All of this suggests that we may be in the early stages of a possible hype nascence.

Solana once led the entire market, but now it could be SUI?

❕ I wouldn't be surprised if we see many surprises from this blockchain. My team and I are currently analyzing this direction. If we find something promising, I will share it with you 🔥

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📽 A movie that teaches better than a textbook

Friends, hello everyone. I am sure you are watching various movies. Today, I want to share with you a movie that can only fascinate you, but also provide useful knowledge.

📉 «The Big Short» is my favorite movie! For newcomers, I recommend watching it in two stages.

The first time is as a feature film. Enjoy the stellar cast and plot.

The second time - already with an outline. Dissect every complex financial term you encounter during the course of the movie.

You'll end up with an understanding of how financial bubbles start and a basic understanding of complex financial instruments.

📑 History is cyclical and so are financial markets. Understanding the past helps predict the future.

Take the episode where Michael Bury assigns his analyst to research the state of the mortgage market. He says:

— «One sign of a bloated market is an increase in the volume and sophistication of stock speculation. And guess what? They're growing.»

Now let's move to the crypto market in March 2024, when the price of BTC hits $75,000. What would Bury think?

1️⃣ Speculation Complexity: daily trading volume in crypto options and futures hit a record of $12.4 billion per day in the first week of March.

2️⃣ Volume of exchange speculation: trading volume on Coinbase on Friday, March 15, is 60% higher than the three-month intraday average.

Looking at this in retrospect, we can see that Bury's logic worked. March 2024 turned out to be a peak and a great opportunity for The big short.

❕ Conclusion. Knowing how to recognize a bubble is not just knowledge, but a skill you can use. And «The Big Short» is not just a movie, but a story that will show you how to act when the bubble is about to burst.

Are we continuing with the column? If YES, that's on you 🔥.

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📉 Why the market is pulling down again?

Friends, today the market is in a shorting mood again. Now I will explain why.

As you can see on the screenshot, at the moment the main liquidity on the market is at the bottom. It is highlighted by the red square.

📑 If Bitcoin drops back down to $53,000 in the near future, traders who are currently in the longs will be liquidated for a total of ~$900 million.

This is a huge amount of liquidity that acts as a magnet for the price, which means the probability of reaching this range is quite high. But this is just a theory.

❔ Do you believe in this scenario?

🐳 —Yes, we are going down
🔥 — No, going up

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💵 The main point of the market

Friends, no analytics or tutorial posts today. I just want to convey a thought.

📥 I talk a lot about the market, coins, earning potential, etc. but no matter what I say or write - the main volume of new people will come in at the upper values of the market.

That's the way it was and that's the way it will be. These laws of the market can't be changed by me or you).

On one hand people have a fear of buying, but on the other hand they have a fear of lost profits. All of this leads to them jumping on the last wagon before the market reverses.

That's the crowd that's going to lose money.

❕ So I ask you: if you are just reading my channel, start taking action gradually. That way you will be ahead of 70%-80% of people in crypto 🔥

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📈 Started growing right after the post

Friends, hello, everyone. By the way, after the post about the SUI frenzy starting, the current is already up over 35%.

I am waiting for further growth, but maybe if BTC decides to show a drawdown, SUI will go down too.

❔ Do you keep SUI in your portfolio?

🔥 - Yes
🐳 - No

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💰 Time to talk about memes

Friends, one of the biggest crypto conferences recently took place - TOKEN2049. There was a lot of discussion about memecoins there. I decided to share some thoughts with you.

Many authorities said: Memes are still in the early stages of development. Blockchains are competing for users' attention.

📑 I partially agree about the early stage, and I fully agree about the competition of chains for liquidity (users), and not only chains, but also exchanges and other platforms.

This has always been the case, where there is liquidity, there is also the attention of those who can make money on it. And given the low activity in the market, this is almost the only opportunity for chains to get activity on their blockchain.

📤 Regarding the early stage. Remember that everything in the market is cyclical. And where there's super much attention and greedy participants - that's where the cycle can come to an end.

If the market turns around and fundamental projects take flight, I think only top coins will grow from memes: PEPE, MEME and others.

Binance list low capitalization memes 2 times a week

This is nonsense. Either things are really bad at Binance or they have greatly relaxed the conditions before listing coins.

❕ It is logical that now the potential of memes that reach 20-40 million capitalization increases many times, as many traders will spend more time searching for good memecoins, as such assets become potential candidates for Binance listing 🔥

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💰 Crypto and Fed rates

Friends, it's been about five days since the Fed lowered its key rate. At this point, BTC has reacted by rising to $64k.

Now let's turn to history and look at the relationship between the Fed key rate and the crypto market.

🔖 In early 2020, during the start of the pandemic, the Feds lowered the rate from 3% to around 0% to strengthen and shore up the US economy. BTC didn't react immediately, had to wait ~4 months.

The Fed kept the rate at 0% for about 10 months, and as a result we saw a bull 2020-2021. BTC's growth during this period amounted to +1500%. The movement was not without corrections, however, by November 2020, BTC showed its ATH of $69'000.

💸 With low interest rates, liquidity flows from less risky assets to riskier assets (crypto)

Big capitals, in search of profits amid declining returns from public assets, are turning to higher yielding and riskier markets, including cryptocurrency.

В February 2022 the Fed Funds rate started to rise smoothly and the cryptocurrency market was the first to suffer.

The rate went from 0 to 4.5% for all of 2022. BTC reacted to the rate hike very sharply and fell in proportion to the rate increase all the way to $16k.

❕ However, at the turn of 2022, the situation changed and .....)

Are we doing part two? If YES, that's on you 🔥

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💸 Crypto and Fed rates | 2 PART

Friends, here's part two. The first one was here.

However, at the turn of 2022, the situation changed and .... BTC began to rise along with a rate hike from the Fed.

📑 The maximum value of the rate occurred in August 2023, and BTC continued to grow. This sudden change in trend was due to what happened to the banking system.

In January 2023, there was an instant collapse of two major banks, Sillicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank.

On that day, the market said goodbye to $52 billion and the entire U.S. banking system hung by a thread. Panic hung in the air among investors and customers....

📥 That's when Bitcoin, which is independent of banking systems, came to the rescue and helped investors save their capitals.

After that, investors started to see BTC not only as a high-risk asset, but also as an opportunity to save and protect their capitals.

❕ And already we are seeing the market starting to react to the recent 50 basis point rate cut.

🔥 - give me 0-1% interest rate and $100k BTC!

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💰 Is BTC storming 65k today?

Friends, I have a feeling that after correction, BTC dominance will gain height again, thus we will see a new attempt to break the key level at the moment - $65k.

*Just in case I clarify: Bitcoin dominance is the ratio between bitcoin's market capitalization and the total capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market.

Alts have started to rise on the correction of the dominance, especially highlighting the AI sector led by TAO. SUI is also getting attention, and is starting to be compared to the SOL of 2021.

📦 What is the market discussing most right now?

• TAO – +130% price appreciation. This is the leader of the AI narrative to date. It is pulling the entire AI sector with it.
• HMSTR – frustration over the perceived unfairness of the airdrop distribution (I didn't doubt it).
• NEAR – discussions of the Near team's active work, including the OLYMPIAD campaign.

🔤 Which is something I'm currently following on my own?

• ZK – active integration on chane from various projects (Treasure DAO, AAVE).
• Scallop – SUI ecosystem
• CORE – interesting L1 chane.
• DOGS – the end of the drop branding opportunity.

🔖 To be more confident with alts, ideally wait for confirmation from bitcoin - exit above $65k 🐳

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🐹 The largest project has issued a token

Friends, hello everyone. Today the project with the largest number of “hamsters” on board in history was listed. And in the end, it turned out to be “resentful hamsters” as well.

I'm talking about Hamster Combat. It was played by over 200 million people.

📦 Most of them got only $10-$20, and about 2.3 million accounts were banned. That's how the developers of Hamster Combat estimated 6 months of playing their users.

Why didn't experienced players of the crypto market even try to make money on it?

According to the logic of the average person Hamster Combat = Notcoin (read here). So the analogy worked for the masses - if Notcoin gave away hundreds and thousands of $, Hamster Combat will follow the same path.

🔤 Important difference: Notcoin is a marketing move from Telegram and TON blockchain with its ecosystem and budget, while Hamster Combat is a commercial project that got on the wave of hype.

A lot of people jokingly expected to get a kick out of it. But ask yourself the question ⬇️

Can millions of people make a big score at the same time? - No.

💵 Lifechanger requires 3 conditions: justified risk, investment and a small number of people in the area you are working in. Hamster doesn't fit at least one of the parameters.

Successful investments are a long game. They require time, strategy and a deep understanding of the market.

❕ The key to desired results lies in methodology, thorough research and skillful risk management 🔥

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💵 My scenario for the near future

Friends, hello everyone. I decided to make a post for you with my thoughts on the future scenario on the crypto market.

It may be hard for many people to read large posts, so I will write everything in thesis ⬇️

In the near future I expect growth in ETH and BTC.

Of course, this will affect altcoins, but in the perspective of 3-4 months I believe that all many alternative coins will update their price lows.

📑 Now the market maker draws the following pattern on the chart (I will speak on his behalf): «I have accumulated a lot of ETH and I am ready to grow. I am not interested in popular altcoins. But there are exceptions — for example APT and SUI.»

Also, if you now look at the BTC dominance chart, you will see that before each altcoin season this indicator gave a sharp increase.

❕ In the last year this growth has not happened yet and that's why I expect it soon. I am bullish 🔥

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📦 Patience or a trap? The game of waiting for losses.

Waiting for losses is a classic financial trap that even experienced investors fall into time after time.

You bought an asset and its price went down? No big deal! Maybe it will return to its previous level.

🔖 Instead of a sober assessment, the waiting mode is switched on, and the mind starts inventing excuses: “Markets are cyclical”, “Patience is rewarded”, “It is enough to wait”, and so on.

The whole point is that stopping a small loss is always harder than just sitting back and waiting for a miracle.

— Moreover, admitting a mistake feels like a double failure: after locking in a loss, the price can suddenly jump up.

— Those who again postpone the exit from a losing position, soon find themselves facing the fact of not just a loss. It is already a major financial failure.

— Postponing the inevitable only leads to a difficult dilemma: accept massive losses or lose hope of a price comeback.

❔ What if we recognize the inevitable, lock in a small loss, and move on?

Maybe this will save you from sleepless nights. Experience shows that even the opportunity to get back into the market on better terms for fear of being wrong is often overlooked.

📥 Think about this the next time you open your investment dashboard. Otherwise, risk memorizing this rule with too painful an experience 🐳

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💸 The crypto market never sleeps

My dear friends, there have been quite a few interesting developments in the market over the past few weeks.

I felt obliged to share such information with you.

Since the U.S. key rate cut by 50 points, it has been 10 days. And during this time we have seen a significant growth in the crypto market on positive expectations, but today BTC still decided to fall.

🔖 Meanwhile, in macro news, audience preparation is underway:

• PayPal has authorized US institutional customers to buy, sell and store crypto;

• Kamala Harris said the US should dominate the blockchain industry;

• China's banking system will start pumping $142 billion into the country;

• $16 billion from FTX will flow into the market in the next two weeks as the exchange repays investors;

• BlackRock bought more BTC last week than any other issuer in 3 weeks. They now have a total of ~363,600 BTC in their accounts;

• Well, and of course CZ (Binance founder) is out of jail.

🔤 Market Opinion:
There is simply no time for another significant market drop anymore. New people, new liquidity, positive backdrop...The medium term forecast I am sticking to is growth.

This may lead to the fact that we will grow on this liquidity, because at the moment of Bitcoin market-maker's pump into this area, there will simply not be so much liquidity in the “glass” to satisfy all the demand to buy BTC.

The short-term forecast is for a fall. The fervor of market participants, who perceived the rate decrease by 50 points positively, is over, and most likely, BTC is going down to the minimum of $61,500.

❕ In this zone on BTC has already gathered long liquidity on the contrary, although it is not large, but it should be taken away 🔥

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🇨🇳 China is saving the market?

Friends, I think you saw that BTC has started to fall. I don't want to focus on it, because I wrote in this post that I expect a local decline. Now it happened.

📑 Today I want to talk to you about another topic. Bloomberg published an interesting material, which says that in Q2 of this year China invested $71 billion abroad.

This has become an absolute record. Before that, the maximum value was in 2015 - 2016, when the amount invested was just over $60 billion.

📈 Markets are on the rise
The day before yesterday was China's national day. And in the run-up to it, investors were buying up Chinese stocks, causing the Chinese market to post its biggest rise since 2008.

What about crypto? Coinbase published an article where analysts said that they expect positive dynamics of BTC in Q4 2024. This should happen because of the Fed rate cut and China's economic stimulus.

❕ But everything is not so unambiguous...It would seem that everything is rosy and beautiful, but no. The situation in the Middle East is heating up. Whether it will have a strong impact on the market - we will see in the near future.

What do you think?

🔥 - Growing in Q4 2024
🐳 - Falling in Q4 2024

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💎 Will APT repeat the success of SUI?

I previously wrote about the SUI narrative, and it worked out great. Today I want to talk about a similar project, Aptos.

If you missed that post, make sure you read it first.

📑 Sui and Aptos are both blockchains that use the Move language. There have been many times in the past when parallels have been drawn between these assets. Same sector, same narrative, similar funds and generally two major competitors.

For example, in winter, when SUI rose sharply, after APT repeated its pattern. Now it is possible we may see a repeat of this story as Aptos has started rolling out news and we see the strength of the asset as the market falls.

📥 What are the updates?

• Support of APT by Franklin Templeton's FOBXX fund
• Aptos Labs' purchase of wallet developer HashPalette

In addition, we see a graphical situation on APT's chart that somewhat resembles SUI before the sharp rise. Plus, there remains a good upside potential given the coin's trading history.

❕ Not a financial recommendation. But I'll tell you in confidence, Aptos has been in my portfolio for a long time. 🔥

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🤙 Friends, check out what I found. This is the chart BlackRock shows to its clients.

This is the chart of the purchasing power of the US dollar and at the same time the spread of Bitcoin.

❕ Sooner or later the rocket will take off. We believe 🚀

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🩸 Crypto players are being intimidated again

Friends, the situation on the BTC chart hasn't changed dramatically in the last few days: we pushed up a bit to $62,000 and continue to trade sideways.

I notice that the bulk of people no longer believe in growth from current levels as much as they used to.

🔤 Most are expecting another major correction (drop) to follow due to the military conflict between Israel and Iran. However, you should realize that there will always be factors in this market that contradict logical expectations.

The crowd more often than not follows just those and then wonders why they fail to profit from their positions.

Try not to think like the majority (I mean locally) because in the long run these factors are accounted for differently.

Every time before a boom starts, people are intimidated in various ways and growth happens in less than expected ways!

❕ This is done so that as few people as possible believe in further growth and consequently fewer participants are able to capitalize on further movement 🐳

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😤 Market Maker Picks Up ARKM

Friends, today we were doing some onchain-analysis with the team and found out that a large market maker «GSR Markets» bought $1.1 million worth of ARKM coin today.

Decided to take a closer look at it for a portfolio purchase.

📤 The asset itself feels very well even on large bitcoin corrections (falls), which emphasizes the strength of the asset and its future potential.

The project is trendy and belongs to the top coins related to artificial intelligence.

AI is the sector where most of the liquidity is going now. Today's accumulation of MM once again confirms it.

❕ Whether we buy it or not - I will not say. The decision is yours alone 🔥

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💰 What can affect the growth of BTC in the near future?

Friends, decided to discuss one pressing topic today. Perhaps many people have already forgotten about it, but a couple of years ago the collapse of this exchange attracted a lot of attention.

📑 We will talk about FTX and payments from the exchange for ordinary users (easy and forgotten money that will go straight into the market?) There is good news - the court approved the plan of bankruptcy of the exchange and payment of $16 billion to users.

What does this mean?

It means that regular people who previously held crypto on FTX will be handed out $16bn worth of “helicopter” money. It's highly likely that most people will take it back to crypto (alt season soon?).

💸 When will the payouts be?
• Payouts less than $50,000 - Q4 2024
• Payouts greater than $50,000 - Q1-2Q 2025

The end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 may be quite interesting for the market. There's also a bitcoin movie from HBO that has already warmed up quite a bit and it's getting special attention. I think there will be a lot of positivity there.

❕ We are preparing for an active phase of the market. Probably waiting for a repeat of last winter. Who is not yet in the market (full-fledged with a set of knowledge in all directions) - think and develop faster 🐳

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🐹 How clickers differ from other types of earnings?

Friends, hello everyone. I decided today to make an analogy between clickers and other types of market activities for earning. I think you've heard about popular clicker games - Hamster Kombat, Blum, etc.

📑 Now clickers are modifying and looking more and more like the era of P2E games, or maybe even the general logic of airdrops and whatever was on the market before.

At first all activities tend to be free and give out money to almost everyone, then comes the era of Ponce strategies (as in the example with p2e). From there, activities are modified and require new criteria for rewards.

💸 At the beginning, for example, NOT also gave out nagards to everyone and the amounts were really good, now in many mini apps you have to buy something, donate something, to get at least a basic drop. At times we even see “hamster razor”, as was the case with retrodrops.

Is it worth it to keep farming points in clickers?

After the release of Hamster Kombat - people are disappointed and a significant portion have dropped out. Many didn't even take the time to withdraw their pennies from the game. Everyone expected big rewards, but the “player razor” was predictable.

The next tapper that is being bet on in a big way is Blum. It will be very interesting to wait for their result, because in addition to the support of Binance (most likely, the listing will also be there), Binance Labs invested in the project.

❕These are just my thoughts. I am not calling anyone to anything 🔥

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🐳 Even whales are giving up

Friends, hello everyone. Yesterday one of the main whales from Hyperliquid platform closed his long position with a loss of $15 million. But today the price has already returned to the right values.

Imagine the emotions of this trader, when he saw that the price has returned to the reverse values and BTC stopped falling, and he recorded a loss of $15 mln.

🔎 What can this tell us? Panic is present in everyone. No matter what your deposit size is, millions or $100, everyone panics.

People are always guided by the same emotions. Therefore, understand that everyone can make money on the market. What I said earlier - flexibility is important. Because there is no sense to poke where there is no earnings that you would like to see.

📑 You need to look in the direction where the main part of players are now, you need to look in the direction where the volumes are now and where you can make money.

Especially, I'll repeat that memcoins and degen activities are the ones to look at right now, especially if you have a small deposit.

If something doesn't work out or you go into a loss, you have to accept it. From the story with a loss of 15 million we can conclude that anything can happen.

❕ The main thing is not to hang your nose and be flexible, look where there is activity and try again 🔥

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