🔭 Macroeconomics in trading

Friends, 1 in 3 people are introduced to crypto through trading.

But despite the technical part, it is also important to evaluate many macro and microeconomic factors.

Trading is active trading and constant monitoring of charts in order to make profits in the short term.

Macroeconomics - the science of how a country's overall economy works, including growth, unemployment and inflation.

📑 Two aspects I am sticking to at the moment:

1️⃣ Markets are now laying 100% probability on a rate cut in September.

That is, the markets have no doubt that this event will happen. Therefore, it makes little sense to expect to see additional positivity or euphoria at the September 19 meeting.

The positivity from the rate cut is already built into current prices.

2️⃣ Since disinflationary data is coming out now, which does not show that inflation is accelerating much, and therefore does not provoke the Fed with some tougher action.

Even still, markets are reacting with fairly weak growth, there is virtually none.

📊 On BTC we should be looking at the $60,000 level. Right now it is more likely that we will once again try to make a run there, after which we will go to $57,000.

Short-term I consider $60,000 as a zone for selling, but if the exit and consolidation above this level happens, the road to ATH will be opened.

❕ Accordingly, locally I am bearish, but in the medium term I am bullish 🔥

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💸 Top 5 portfolio management tips

Friends, today I suggest to remember the basic rules for managing your investment portfolio.

These rules should always be remembered.

1️⃣ Keep a part of your funds in stablecoins.
Even if the market looks promising, always keep a stake in stablecoins. They will allow you to take advantage of opportunities during corrections and dips with minimal risk.

2️⃣ Buy on fear, sell on greed.
Experienced investors use fear in the market to buy, capitalizing on panic.

3️⃣ Set your own exit levels.
Determine a plan of action in advance in case the asset falls. Acting without a plan and strategy you become like 99% of people who will lose money on crypto.

4️⃣ Don't overload your portfolio with altcoins.
Too much diversification can be a mistake. For example, if you have $1000-$10000 and spread it among 50 random altcoins, it will most likely not bring the expected results.

5️⃣ Always lock in profits.
At big market peaks, it is worthwhile to lock in 20-30% of your portfolio in stablecoins. Remember that on a pullback you will be able to buy back the assets you need and thus increase the number of coins.

❕ Be sure to save this post so that they rules are always in your sight🔥

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🪙 TON continues to fall

Friends, over the last 24 hours TON fell by another 7% and reached $4.9 (where it is currently trading)

Against the background of Durov's detention in France, the situation with TON looks equally deplorable.

📑 We are witnessing the formation of a downtrend, which is not going to end yet, but on the contrary, continues to develop, reaching lower and lower values every day.

Even taking into account the perspective of the asset, I do not recommend longing it now.

Only spot buying. If the current support is changed, we can expect a continuation of the correction up to the next support zone.

❕ The news background puts too much pressure on this project, so it is too early to bet on growth from the current values 🔥

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🟡 What are Coin Mixers

Friends, hello everyone. Thought I'd do a breakdown of one of the popular terms for you today. Newbies will find it useful.

📑 A coin mixer (or cryptocurrency tumbler) is a service that helps hide the source and recipient of cryptocurrency transactions by mixing funds from different users.

This increases the anonymity and privacy of transactions. It is often used by scammers.

1️⃣ How does the mixer work?
A user sends cryptocurrency to a coin mixer address, where it is mixed with other transactions, split into small amounts and redirected through different wallets.

The user then receives mixed funds that cannot be linked to their original transaction.

2️⃣ Why it's necessary?
Anonymity is important to protect against tracking, theft and surveillance. Coin mixers help maintain privacy in the world of cryptocurrencies, especially in countries with strict financial controls.

It is a useful tool for those who value privacy and security in cryptocurrency transactions, but it is important to choose trusted services to avoid risks and scams.

Did you know about such a service?

🔥 - Yes, of course.
🐳 - No, it's the first time I've heard of it.

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📉 Weakness in the market

Friends, due to today's unfavorable news related to the US economy, the market reacted with a significant correction and extinguished all yesterday's growth.

🔖 Many were waiting for a break of $60,000 but the market went against the crowd (my scenario). We got a pullback to the downside and a retracement of the $56,000 level.

There is very little buyback at the current level, sellers are dominating. If this continues, we will lose this level and go lower.

Also, at the level of $54.000 - $53.000 there is a very large liquidity, if reached, traders will be liquidated for a total of $960 mln.

This is a big factor, which additionally pulls the price in its direction.

❕ In general, it is clearly not worth considering longs for the time being. There is a high probability to see the continuation of correction. I wish you success 🔥

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💸 AAVE is looking too good

Friends, thought I'd share with you once again about a certain token. While all other tokens are falling or staying in one place, AAVE is confidently holding its position.

📑 As I mentioned earlier, this is one of the few coins that shows stable growth impulses regardless of the state of bitcoin. In the last month alone, the asset has responded with ~50% growth.

Major players started gaining on this asset back in the $80 range, and continue to do so now.

Today, I came across another whale of an address that purchased $6.8M worth of this coin.

❕ At this point, all available factors on this asset point to a continuation of the uptrend from the current trading range ($120-$140) 🔥

Not a financial recommendation.

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💸 STRK | reversal is set

Friends, even in such unfavorable market conditions, there are assets that are starting to show significant growth momentum and strong support from large buyers.

📑 Pay attention to STRK. Over the past 7 days, the token has been moving against the decline of BTC.

Over the last 5 days, the coin has grown by over 25%, becoming one of the leaders among all altcoins in terms of growth rate.

Given that the coin is showing itself so confidently in such a sluggish market, we can expect it to quickly recover to the upper price limits ($1+) if bitcoin's dominance declines further.

Already in the near future, the project's holders, who have gone through a difficult period of waiting and correction, will finally be rewarded with a decent profit.

❕ Everything is like in the book, weak hands came out of the coin, now it's time for growth 🐳

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📉 How much Panic Sale is ahead of us?

Friends, this summer the crypto market has experienced a lot of emotional selling amid all sorts of negativity. But despite that, whatever anyone says, Bitcoin is indeed holding up well.

But, what's next and should we still expect trials for the market?

📑 Perhaps the last stage before the upswing for the survivors (us) will be the pre-election weakness in risk assets. This pattern has repeated itself every election year.

Weakness in equities that could entail weak BTC and altcoins.

It seems to me that if there is another sell-off against this pattern where bitcoin will possibly behave even stronger than the stock market then this divergence should be used for a “mega-risk” in Q4 of this year.

We have already seen a situation where bitcoin bottomed at the end of 2023, and after that had the fastest run to the upside among all risk assets.

🔖 And we know that market phases tend to repeat themselves, so if the time comes for a “mega-risk”, we should do it.

Do you still have a deposit left for the final run up?

🔥 - Yes, I have an extra deposit.
🐳 - No, already used everything to buy tokens.

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💰 Bitcoin and the presidential election

Friends, I've replaced one pattern.

📑 Yesterday there was a debate between Trump and Harris. The topics discussed in the debate were immigration, turmoil in the country, and various personalities, but cryptocurrency was not mentioned.

So, why am I writing about it now?

Who remembers, the other day, there was a news about some analysts giving their forecast about the election and crypto.

📥 It said that if Trump wins, BTC will fly to the moon, if Harris wins, the price will decrease by half. Tonight BTC fell by more than 1000 points. Why is that?

Trump was pretty weak in this debate, Harris felt much more confident. Most likely, the market will now evaluate every movement of the candidates.

Strong Trump - buy, strong Harris - sell.

❕ Very strange pattern of course, but we will probably live with it until the election. It sounds sad to me, so I hope this correlation will not last long 🐳

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🔎 Who could be a “dark horse”?

Friends, hello, everyone. I decided to make an interesting post for you.

📑 Right now I advise you to take a closer look at the SUI ecosystem. Yes, the SUI token itself is growing and today it is a top gainer on Binance, but beyond that there is an ecosystem.

And these are protocols, DeFi, infrastructure and of course memtokens.

There is a rumor on memes that SUI is now actively thinking about how to launch a parade of memes and liquidity inflow through them into the whole ecosystem of this blockchain.

💵 What do we have today?

• The first “dogs and cats” that are already showing hundreds of percent growth.
• Grayscale has opened a fund on SUI for qualified investors.
• The last 30 days have seen a significant increase in transactions within the network, as well as transfers into the network via bridges.

All of this suggests that we may be in the early stages of a possible hype nascence.

Solana once led the entire market, but now it could be SUI?

❕ I wouldn't be surprised if we see many surprises from this blockchain. My team and I are currently analyzing this direction. If we find something promising, I will share it with you 🔥

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📽 A movie that teaches better than a textbook

Friends, hello everyone. I am sure you are watching various movies. Today, I want to share with you a movie that can only fascinate you, but also provide useful knowledge.

📉 «The Big Short» is my favorite movie! For newcomers, I recommend watching it in two stages.

The first time is as a feature film. Enjoy the stellar cast and plot.

The second time - already with an outline. Dissect every complex financial term you encounter during the course of the movie.

You'll end up with an understanding of how financial bubbles start and a basic understanding of complex financial instruments.

📑 History is cyclical and so are financial markets. Understanding the past helps predict the future.

Take the episode where Michael Bury assigns his analyst to research the state of the mortgage market. He says:

— «One sign of a bloated market is an increase in the volume and sophistication of stock speculation. And guess what? They're growing.»

Now let's move to the crypto market in March 2024, when the price of BTC hits $75,000. What would Bury think?

1️⃣ Speculation Complexity: daily trading volume in crypto options and futures hit a record of $12.4 billion per day in the first week of March.

2️⃣ Volume of exchange speculation: trading volume on Coinbase on Friday, March 15, is 60% higher than the three-month intraday average.

Looking at this in retrospect, we can see that Bury's logic worked. March 2024 turned out to be a peak and a great opportunity for The big short.

❕ Conclusion. Knowing how to recognize a bubble is not just knowledge, but a skill you can use. And «The Big Short» is not just a movie, but a story that will show you how to act when the bubble is about to burst.

Are we continuing with the column? If YES, that's on you 🔥.

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📉 Why the market is pulling down again?

Friends, today the market is in a shorting mood again. Now I will explain why.

As you can see on the screenshot, at the moment the main liquidity on the market is at the bottom. It is highlighted by the red square.

📑 If Bitcoin drops back down to $53,000 in the near future, traders who are currently in the longs will be liquidated for a total of ~$900 million.

This is a huge amount of liquidity that acts as a magnet for the price, which means the probability of reaching this range is quite high. But this is just a theory.

❔ Do you believe in this scenario?

🐳 —Yes, we are going down
🔥 — No, going up

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💵 The main point of the market

Friends, no analytics or tutorial posts today. I just want to convey a thought.

📥 I talk a lot about the market, coins, earning potential, etc. but no matter what I say or write - the main volume of new people will come in at the upper values of the market.

That's the way it was and that's the way it will be. These laws of the market can't be changed by me or you).

On one hand people have a fear of buying, but on the other hand they have a fear of lost profits. All of this leads to them jumping on the last wagon before the market reverses.

That's the crowd that's going to lose money.

❕ So I ask you: if you are just reading my channel, start taking action gradually. That way you will be ahead of 70%-80% of people in crypto 🔥

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📈 Started growing right after the post

Friends, hello, everyone. By the way, after the post about the SUI frenzy starting, the current is already up over 35%.

I am waiting for further growth, but maybe if BTC decides to show a drawdown, SUI will go down too.

❔ Do you keep SUI in your portfolio?

🔥 - Yes
🐳 - No

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💰 Time to talk about memes

Friends, one of the biggest crypto conferences recently took place - TOKEN2049. There was a lot of discussion about memecoins there. I decided to share some thoughts with you.

Many authorities said: Memes are still in the early stages of development. Blockchains are competing for users' attention.

📑 I partially agree about the early stage, and I fully agree about the competition of chains for liquidity (users), and not only chains, but also exchanges and other platforms.

This has always been the case, where there is liquidity, there is also the attention of those who can make money on it. And given the low activity in the market, this is almost the only opportunity for chains to get activity on their blockchain.

📤 Regarding the early stage. Remember that everything in the market is cyclical. And where there's super much attention and greedy participants - that's where the cycle can come to an end.

If the market turns around and fundamental projects take flight, I think only top coins will grow from memes: PEPE, MEME and others.

Binance list low capitalization memes 2 times a week

This is nonsense. Either things are really bad at Binance or they have greatly relaxed the conditions before listing coins.

❕ It is logical that now the potential of memes that reach 20-40 million capitalization increases many times, as many traders will spend more time searching for good memecoins, as such assets become potential candidates for Binance listing 🔥

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💰 Crypto and Fed rates

Friends, it's been about five days since the Fed lowered its key rate. At this point, BTC has reacted by rising to $64k.

Now let's turn to history and look at the relationship between the Fed key rate and the crypto market.

🔖 In early 2020, during the start of the pandemic, the Feds lowered the rate from 3% to around 0% to strengthen and shore up the US economy. BTC didn't react immediately, had to wait ~4 months.

The Fed kept the rate at 0% for about 10 months, and as a result we saw a bull 2020-2021. BTC's growth during this period amounted to +1500%. The movement was not without corrections, however, by November 2020, BTC showed its ATH of $69'000.

💸 With low interest rates, liquidity flows from less risky assets to riskier assets (crypto)

Big capitals, in search of profits amid declining returns from public assets, are turning to higher yielding and riskier markets, including cryptocurrency.

В February 2022 the Fed Funds rate started to rise smoothly and the cryptocurrency market was the first to suffer.

The rate went from 0 to 4.5% for all of 2022. BTC reacted to the rate hike very sharply and fell in proportion to the rate increase all the way to $16k.

❕ However, at the turn of 2022, the situation changed and .....)

Are we doing part two? If YES, that's on you 🔥

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💸 Crypto and Fed rates | 2 PART

Friends, here's part two. The first one was here.

However, at the turn of 2022, the situation changed and .... BTC began to rise along with a rate hike from the Fed.

📑 The maximum value of the rate occurred in August 2023, and BTC continued to grow. This sudden change in trend was due to what happened to the banking system.

In January 2023, there was an instant collapse of two major banks, Sillicon Valley Bank and Silvergate Bank.

On that day, the market said goodbye to $52 billion and the entire U.S. banking system hung by a thread. Panic hung in the air among investors and customers....

📥 That's when Bitcoin, which is independent of banking systems, came to the rescue and helped investors save their capitals.

After that, investors started to see BTC not only as a high-risk asset, but also as an opportunity to save and protect their capitals.

❕ And already we are seeing the market starting to react to the recent 50 basis point rate cut.

🔥 - give me 0-1% interest rate and $100k BTC!

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💰 Is BTC storming 65k today?

Friends, I have a feeling that after correction, BTC dominance will gain height again, thus we will see a new attempt to break the key level at the moment - $65k.

*Just in case I clarify: Bitcoin dominance is the ratio between bitcoin's market capitalization and the total capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market.

Alts have started to rise on the correction of the dominance, especially highlighting the AI sector led by TAO. SUI is also getting attention, and is starting to be compared to the SOL of 2021.

📦 What is the market discussing most right now?

• TAO – +130% price appreciation. This is the leader of the AI narrative to date. It is pulling the entire AI sector with it.
• HMSTR – frustration over the perceived unfairness of the airdrop distribution (I didn't doubt it).
• NEAR – discussions of the Near team's active work, including the OLYMPIAD campaign.

🔤 Which is something I'm currently following on my own?

• ZK – active integration on chane from various projects (Treasure DAO, AAVE).
• Scallop – SUI ecosystem
• CORE – interesting L1 chane.
• DOGS – the end of the drop branding opportunity.

🔖 To be more confident with alts, ideally wait for confirmation from bitcoin - exit above $65k 🐳

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🐹 The largest project has issued a token

Friends, hello everyone. Today the project with the largest number of “hamsters” on board in history was listed. And in the end, it turned out to be “resentful hamsters” as well.

I'm talking about Hamster Combat. It was played by over 200 million people.

📦 Most of them got only $10-$20, and about 2.3 million accounts were banned. That's how the developers of Hamster Combat estimated 6 months of playing their users.

Why didn't experienced players of the crypto market even try to make money on it?

According to the logic of the average person Hamster Combat = Notcoin (read here). So the analogy worked for the masses - if Notcoin gave away hundreds and thousands of $, Hamster Combat will follow the same path.

🔤 Important difference: Notcoin is a marketing move from Telegram and TON blockchain with its ecosystem and budget, while Hamster Combat is a commercial project that got on the wave of hype.

A lot of people jokingly expected to get a kick out of it. But ask yourself the question ⬇️

Can millions of people make a big score at the same time? - No.

💵 Lifechanger requires 3 conditions: justified risk, investment and a small number of people in the area you are working in. Hamster doesn't fit at least one of the parameters.

Successful investments are a long game. They require time, strategy and a deep understanding of the market.

❕ The key to desired results lies in methodology, thorough research and skillful risk management 🔥

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💵 My scenario for the near future

Friends, hello everyone. I decided to make a post for you with my thoughts on the future scenario on the crypto market.

It may be hard for many people to read large posts, so I will write everything in thesis ⬇️

In the near future I expect growth in ETH and BTC.

Of course, this will affect altcoins, but in the perspective of 3-4 months I believe that all many alternative coins will update their price lows.

📑 Now the market maker draws the following pattern on the chart (I will speak on his behalf): «I have accumulated a lot of ETH and I am ready to grow. I am not interested in popular altcoins. But there are exceptions — for example APT and SUI.»

Also, if you now look at the BTC dominance chart, you will see that before each altcoin season this indicator gave a sharp increase.

❕ In the last year this growth has not happened yet and that's why I expect it soon. I am bullish 🔥

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