📤 It's a very busy week

Hey, guys. This week will be one of the busiest weeks in macro data in recent times.

📑 This week there will be inflation, important data on oil inventories, GDP in countries like Japan, Britain, US jobless claims and many others.

It is a super active week, which can bring good volatility to the markets.

We will talk more about all these data closer to their release. It may be a key week that will determine the market direction for the near future.

Throw 🔥 if you want to review these macroeconomic events.

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💸 ETF stimulates Ethereum growth

Hi, did you notice how ETH behaved stronger than BTC yesterday?

📑 To understand why this happened, let's look at the Net Flow of money in the ETH-ETF. What do we see there?

Yesterday we had the first day without outflows from Grayscale ETHE. I can't believe it myself, but it's a fact.

Following yesterday's example, we can immediately see how ETH can grow in its current position with Grayscale not selling.

With an unaided eye, we can see how ETFs are affecting the market.

While Bitcoin didn't move much, ETH rose more than 5% in 24 hours. And all it needed to do was for Grayscale to stop its pressure.

❕ Therefore, I think that in the future we will see the impact of the launched ETF on ether and, as a result, a good price growth 🔥

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📑 What is the connection between the Fed and crypto?

Friends, the crypto market is influenced by a large number of factors. Starting from the Fed to the weather forecast (just kidding). But I'm sure not all of you know how these factors are connected.

Let's get this sorted out.

1️⃣ THE FED

It is the Fed that influences the flow of capital into the crypto sector by manipulating interest rates: rates go down - money leaves traditional investments, the dollar falls, and opportunities for bitcoin open up. And vice versa.

2️⃣ Macrodata

Inflation, unemployment, and business activity are also on the Fed's pencil. Any changes can change the rate: inflation and unemployment fall - investors flee into risky assets. And vice versa.

3️⃣ The stock market

The S&P 500 index acts as a kind of barometer of the US economy.
For example, its decline in recent months plus the rising Treasury yield curve suggests a possible correction.

Whales like Buffett, Bezos and others are taking assets to cash, worried about an overheated market.

4️⃣ Politics

Before the US elections, the authorities try to be generous: government spending goes up, taxes go down, and the Fed usually keeps rates low in the name of stability. In addition, the cryptocommunity is becoming an increasingly influential force.

🔖 What's the conclusion?

In an unstable global economy, crypto is strengthening as an alternative asset, attracting both new enthusiasts and traditional financial giants.

❕ Bitcoin, born out of the 2008 crisis, has already penetrated the old financial system through ETFs, creating both synergy and dependence on the global market.

Did you know all these patterns?

🔥 — Yes, but it was still useful to me
🐳 — No, I didn't

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💸 The richest crypto project

Friends, today we are going to talk about a project that despite the low activity on the market, earns unreal money every day.

Of course, this is a project that is related to meme-coins and its name is Pump Fun.

📑 Pump Fun is a simple and clear product for “degens”, with which you can very quickly create meme-coins on the Solana and Blast blockchain. Now this project is the top 1 in terms of revenue generation in all crypto.

The daily revenue of the Pump fun platform has grown to $5.33 million (a record).

📥 This is more than the revenue of more than 20 major protocols combined. And BBG generally wrote that Pump fun has become one of the most profitable crypto projects in history.

In recent days, a large amount of criticism has fallen on the site due to the fact that thousands of unnecessary shit-coins appear on the site per day, on which many people lose money.

I have written about the latter myself many times, in the sense that meme-coins have a very short lifespan.

🗒 Toward the end I'll just give you some stats. Only 1.4% of Pump fun memes go out on Raydium (one of the most popular DEX).

• A total of 1,700,000+ memes were launched
• Of those, 24,000,000+ memes made it to Raydium.
• Kept the $1mln+ capitalization for over a week 41 memes
• Kept capitalizing $10mln+ for more than a week 15 memes (this is very few)

15 memes out of 1,700,000 - how's that for a statistic? Now do you see why it's dangerous to hold memes? They need to be flipped.

Have you ever bought meme-coins?

🔥 — Yes
🐳 — No

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📉 Up or down?

Friends, hello everyone. I decided to do a little market review for you. I think many of you have different thoughts and uncertainties.

Actually, nothing has changed globally. The market has recovered a bit after the fall on August 5. Now bitcoin is trading at $59k-$60k.

The main question is - do I expect a further fall?

📥 YES. I think the market will show what a real fall is. At least, in my experience, BTC will still fall to $52k. Not a financial recommendation.

But we should not forget that we have September-October ahead of us. This is the time when there will be multiples more activity in the market.

❕ If you are reading this post, it means you are one of those who really love crypto and are in the market when it is very boring 🔥

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🎈 An interesting situation has developed in the market

Friends, last week the stock market closed at the high point. Lots of positive macro data, rate cut frontrunner, and crypto just stands still and does not react at all.

📑 Normally, it would be different. Normally all markets move at the same time.

With that being said, we even already have a Binance fanding negative on bitcoin. Which means that shorts (sellers) are starting to dominate in the moment.

This situation hasn't happened since October 2023 (just the time when bitcoin started to launch its local bull run).

It is hard to say the reason why bitcoin does not follow all risk assets in such a situation.

📥 Correlation, positivity in macro data, lots of hype news, increasing number of shorts and so on. It seemed like this was the kind of news set that could launch a Bitcoin to its ATH.

But, so far we are seeing the opposite. Perhaps, the market maker is trying to kill people's faith in such a not-so-pleasant way that crypto in general will still start growing this year.

❕ But, on the other hand, bitcoin has a lot of room to fall. But, how low can alta still go? I wrote my assumption in this post. 🔥

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↗️ A market overview from me

Friends, while all the attention and liquidity is in the shitcoin sector (I will tell you about it tomorrow), the rest of the market is still moving.

I decided to share with you more localized analytics on two major cryptocurrencies.

💰 BTC / USDT

The price is in the accumulation phase. There is a trading range around $62,850 and $58,160. Recommend not to open positions inside this range, wait for a sideways exit and react to the movement.

🔹 ETH / USDT

The situation is similar to BTC - the price is squeezed between two zones, trading range $2510 - $2780.

As long as the price is inside the range, there is no preponderance of probability in either side. Setups will appear once the price interacts with one of the boundaries.

📑 Conclusions

We are in a narrow sidewall. I recommend to wait for interaction with one of the boundaries and work from the reaction. We do not open directional positions inside the sidewall as it is quite risky.

Are there those among my audience who are involved in trading?

🐳 — Yes
🧐 — No

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🟡 Spot or trading. Which is better?

Friends, throughout the history of crypto there are disputes, what is better: spot or trading? Let's get to the bottom of it today.

I'm sure it will be useful for many beginners.

1️⃣ Spot

Spot is a form of trading where you buy an asset at the current market price and get it instantly.

Because coins are bought and sold at the market price, spot is more suitable for short-term trading.

If you don't enter positions for large amounts and use non-aggressive strategies, the risks become lower.

2️⃣ Trading

Trading is a general term that includes speculating on assets in order to make money.

Trading comes in different forms: short-term, medium-term and long-term. Let's consider short-term trading.

For example, futures are contracts that you enter into on the market and agree on the price of an asset for future delivery.

📤 That is, you do not buy the asset directly, but only enter into a contract with the exchange. Such transactions have a set date of execution, which differs from spot, where transactions are executed immediately.

Here the risks are much higher and traders should carefully manage their open positions.

📑 What is better?
Of course, conservative spot trading is better. The risks of losing money there are lower than on the same futures.

But it's important to remember: as the risk increases, so does the potential profit, which makes futures attractive to some.

Which trading method do you prefer?

🔥 — spot
🐳 — trading

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📉 TON is going down

Friends, founder of Telegram and cryptocurrency TON Pavel Durov was detained at the airport after his visit to Baku.

📑 The head of Telegram was accused at once of terrorism, pedophilia and selling drugs. French authorities believe that all prohibited activities are spinning in Telegram with Pavel's consent.

Among the probable reasons, the desire to “wean” from committing crimes those who have so far “freely exchanged messages on Telegram.

• The EU will seek access to ALL correspondence as it sees fit.

• The charges are serious: Pavel faces up to 20 years in prison.

• Durov also has French citizenship, so he will be tried in the country.

❕ TON reacted to all this with a strong drop of -15%. If you keep it in your portfolio, don't sell it for anything. If you were still buying, you can buy it now at a discount. This is what I would do.

Do you keep TON in your portfolio?

🔥 — YES
🐳 — NO

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💵 A new wave of FOMO on the TRX?

Friends, hello everyone. While many are waiting for Bitcoin to go above 65k - we have a continuing memcoin story on TRX. Moreover, all interested parties give a lot of positive predictions for this week on memes on Tron.

📑 For those who missed the news: a week ago Justin Sun (founder of TRON) launched a new platform for trading shitcoins, similar to Pump Fun, only on a throne - SunPump.

Of course, first of all, I would like to say once again about the risks of working with shitcoins. Volatility is high, most projects do not even reach the capitalization of $1mln, but there is activity and this is the most important thing.

Those who know how to use it can make money.

For example, yesterday the shitcoin Yilong Ma gave 200% during the day, but then fell by 65% as fast. Such assets can not be held for a long time, you need to trade actively.

📃 You should reserch the best tokens at an early stage, enter several at once for a small amount and withdraw the investment body at the first opportunity.

Let's say you have $5000 allocated for trading shitcoins. You found 5 tokens not bad in your opinion, threw in each $ 200 for a total of $1000.

One was -50%, the second one broke even, the third one gave +40%, and the other 2 gave 2-3x. That's how in the section of a few trades you need to go to profit.

❕ There are also interesting moments. Perhaps Wif, Bonk, Ponke, Pepe will come to TRON and all of them will launch their tokens this week. This could give a new HYIP on TRON. Observe 🔥

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📤 Perfect prediction workout

Hello everyone. My scenario on BTC worked out perfectly. I wrote about it in this post.

Last 2 days the market is falling. Is it manipulation or will we go even lower?

We found strange movements yesterday when conducting on-chain analysis.

📑 Before Bitcoin started to fall down, there was a transfer of 2300 BTC to the Kraken exchange, which may have triggered the first impulse downward on the fear of possible sales of this pack.

And then we have already connected stop-losses of participants, who came to break the level of $61,500 and we saw a large number of sales, stop-losses and liquidations.

💵 As a result, BTC is back below 59k. But, what was it? Manipulation to collect stop losses or real selling by large participants?

Just an hour later, 2k BTC was withdrawn back from the Kraken exchange. The conclusion is: what was the purpose of this transfer?

To collect stop losses, to place their orders? To add more panic to the market?

❕ There is such a possibility. And if it was a real manipulation, we should quickly buy back the current fall.

Do you think we'll get back to $64k quickly?

🔥 - Yeah, we're up tomorrow.
🐳 - No, we'll go lower.

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🔭 Macroeconomics in trading

Friends, 1 in 3 people are introduced to crypto through trading.

But despite the technical part, it is also important to evaluate many macro and microeconomic factors.

Trading is active trading and constant monitoring of charts in order to make profits in the short term.

Macroeconomics - the science of how a country's overall economy works, including growth, unemployment and inflation.

📑 Two aspects I am sticking to at the moment:

1️⃣ Markets are now laying 100% probability on a rate cut in September.

That is, the markets have no doubt that this event will happen. Therefore, it makes little sense to expect to see additional positivity or euphoria at the September 19 meeting.

The positivity from the rate cut is already built into current prices.

2️⃣ Since disinflationary data is coming out now, which does not show that inflation is accelerating much, and therefore does not provoke the Fed with some tougher action.

Even still, markets are reacting with fairly weak growth, there is virtually none.

📊 On BTC we should be looking at the $60,000 level. Right now it is more likely that we will once again try to make a run there, after which we will go to $57,000.

Short-term I consider $60,000 as a zone for selling, but if the exit and consolidation above this level happens, the road to ATH will be opened.

❕ Accordingly, locally I am bearish, but in the medium term I am bullish 🔥

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💸 Top 5 portfolio management tips

Friends, today I suggest to remember the basic rules for managing your investment portfolio.

These rules should always be remembered.

1️⃣ Keep a part of your funds in stablecoins.
Even if the market looks promising, always keep a stake in stablecoins. They will allow you to take advantage of opportunities during corrections and dips with minimal risk.

2️⃣ Buy on fear, sell on greed.
Experienced investors use fear in the market to buy, capitalizing on panic.

3️⃣ Set your own exit levels.
Determine a plan of action in advance in case the asset falls. Acting without a plan and strategy you become like 99% of people who will lose money on crypto.

4️⃣ Don't overload your portfolio with altcoins.
Too much diversification can be a mistake. For example, if you have $1000-$10000 and spread it among 50 random altcoins, it will most likely not bring the expected results.

5️⃣ Always lock in profits.
At big market peaks, it is worthwhile to lock in 20-30% of your portfolio in stablecoins. Remember that on a pullback you will be able to buy back the assets you need and thus increase the number of coins.

❕ Be sure to save this post so that they rules are always in your sight🔥

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🪙 TON continues to fall

Friends, over the last 24 hours TON fell by another 7% and reached $4.9 (where it is currently trading)

Against the background of Durov's detention in France, the situation with TON looks equally deplorable.

📑 We are witnessing the formation of a downtrend, which is not going to end yet, but on the contrary, continues to develop, reaching lower and lower values every day.

Even taking into account the perspective of the asset, I do not recommend longing it now.

Only spot buying. If the current support is changed, we can expect a continuation of the correction up to the next support zone.

❕ The news background puts too much pressure on this project, so it is too early to bet on growth from the current values 🔥

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🟡 What are Coin Mixers

Friends, hello everyone. Thought I'd do a breakdown of one of the popular terms for you today. Newbies will find it useful.

📑 A coin mixer (or cryptocurrency tumbler) is a service that helps hide the source and recipient of cryptocurrency transactions by mixing funds from different users.

This increases the anonymity and privacy of transactions. It is often used by scammers.

1️⃣ How does the mixer work?
A user sends cryptocurrency to a coin mixer address, where it is mixed with other transactions, split into small amounts and redirected through different wallets.

The user then receives mixed funds that cannot be linked to their original transaction.

2️⃣ Why it's necessary?
Anonymity is important to protect against tracking, theft and surveillance. Coin mixers help maintain privacy in the world of cryptocurrencies, especially in countries with strict financial controls.

It is a useful tool for those who value privacy and security in cryptocurrency transactions, but it is important to choose trusted services to avoid risks and scams.

Did you know about such a service?

🔥 - Yes, of course.
🐳 - No, it's the first time I've heard of it.

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📉 Weakness in the market

Friends, due to today's unfavorable news related to the US economy, the market reacted with a significant correction and extinguished all yesterday's growth.

🔖 Many were waiting for a break of $60,000 but the market went against the crowd (my scenario). We got a pullback to the downside and a retracement of the $56,000 level.

There is very little buyback at the current level, sellers are dominating. If this continues, we will lose this level and go lower.

Also, at the level of $54.000 - $53.000 there is a very large liquidity, if reached, traders will be liquidated for a total of $960 mln.

This is a big factor, which additionally pulls the price in its direction.

❕ In general, it is clearly not worth considering longs for the time being. There is a high probability to see the continuation of correction. I wish you success 🔥

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💸 AAVE is looking too good

Friends, thought I'd share with you once again about a certain token. While all other tokens are falling or staying in one place, AAVE is confidently holding its position.

📑 As I mentioned earlier, this is one of the few coins that shows stable growth impulses regardless of the state of bitcoin. In the last month alone, the asset has responded with ~50% growth.

Major players started gaining on this asset back in the $80 range, and continue to do so now.

Today, I came across another whale of an address that purchased $6.8M worth of this coin.

❕ At this point, all available factors on this asset point to a continuation of the uptrend from the current trading range ($120-$140) 🔥

Not a financial recommendation.

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💸 STRK | reversal is set

Friends, even in such unfavorable market conditions, there are assets that are starting to show significant growth momentum and strong support from large buyers.

📑 Pay attention to STRK. Over the past 7 days, the token has been moving against the decline of BTC.

Over the last 5 days, the coin has grown by over 25%, becoming one of the leaders among all altcoins in terms of growth rate.

Given that the coin is showing itself so confidently in such a sluggish market, we can expect it to quickly recover to the upper price limits ($1+) if bitcoin's dominance declines further.

Already in the near future, the project's holders, who have gone through a difficult period of waiting and correction, will finally be rewarded with a decent profit.

❕ Everything is like in the book, weak hands came out of the coin, now it's time for growth 🐳

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📉 How much Panic Sale is ahead of us?

Friends, this summer the crypto market has experienced a lot of emotional selling amid all sorts of negativity. But despite that, whatever anyone says, Bitcoin is indeed holding up well.

But, what's next and should we still expect trials for the market?

📑 Perhaps the last stage before the upswing for the survivors (us) will be the pre-election weakness in risk assets. This pattern has repeated itself every election year.

Weakness in equities that could entail weak BTC and altcoins.

It seems to me that if there is another sell-off against this pattern where bitcoin will possibly behave even stronger than the stock market then this divergence should be used for a “mega-risk” in Q4 of this year.

We have already seen a situation where bitcoin bottomed at the end of 2023, and after that had the fastest run to the upside among all risk assets.

🔖 And we know that market phases tend to repeat themselves, so if the time comes for a “mega-risk”, we should do it.

Do you still have a deposit left for the final run up?

🔥 - Yes, I have an extra deposit.
🐳 - No, already used everything to buy tokens.

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💰 Bitcoin and the presidential election

Friends, I've replaced one pattern.

📑 Yesterday there was a debate between Trump and Harris. The topics discussed in the debate were immigration, turmoil in the country, and various personalities, but cryptocurrency was not mentioned.

So, why am I writing about it now?

Who remembers, the other day, there was a news about some analysts giving their forecast about the election and crypto.

📥 It said that if Trump wins, BTC will fly to the moon, if Harris wins, the price will decrease by half. Tonight BTC fell by more than 1000 points. Why is that?

Trump was pretty weak in this debate, Harris felt much more confident. Most likely, the market will now evaluate every movement of the candidates.

Strong Trump - buy, strong Harris - sell.

❕ Very strange pattern of course, but we will probably live with it until the election. It sounds sad to me, so I hope this correlation will not last long 🐳

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