📉 Why was the market falling today?

Friends, today the market is not in the best condition. Let's understand.

Yesterday the Fed meeting was held, where everything was quite positive. Powell made it clear that the Fed Funds rate is likely to be cut in September. Of course, they will be looking at annual inflation and so on.

📑 There is an important but. The annual inflation sample includes all 12 months, a new month is added, the one from a year ago is dropped from the calculation. (I hope that's clear). Last year, August/September for two added as much as 0.9% to inflation.

Which means that if inflation is 0% in those months this year, the rate cut will be 100%.

By the way, a 100% cut is also already mortgaged by the market, so we could have a frontrunner in August/September. And even if we fall now, it doesn't change anything globally.

I keep betting on September as a month with possible positivity for risk assets (crypto)

🔖 Why did it fall?

1) Fed meeting pattern. The first 2-3 days after the meeting the market always falls.
2) Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

❕ It's hard, it's boring, it's exhausting. But this is the market, and there is no other way. 70% of the time the market is either falling or flat, and only 30% is growing 🔥

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🥅 Cryptofund with the best projects

Friends, today within the rubric "Exploring the fund from the inside" we will once again dive into the world of fundraising. This time I will tell you about a fund that even experienced analysts overlook.

🪙 Maelstrom is a Tier-3 crypto fund founded by the well-known Arthur Hayes.

VC investments are spread across sectors:
• DeFi (50%)
• Blockchain Infrastructure (25%)
• Blockchain Service (12.5%)
• NFT (6.25%)
• Social (6.25%)

🟢 The fund was founded in 2022. You probably know its founder from numerous essays, but many people haven't even studied his background.

Work experience:
• Trader at Deutsche Bank;
• senior trader at Citigroup;
• CEO of BitMEX;
• Founder of 100X Group.

📑 Of interest: Hayes recently announced the launch of the "Bitcoin Grant Program" on behalf of a fund to support product developers in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

There are only 16 projects in the fund's portfolio, but a sampling of them is worthy of special attention.

Many of them were on the drophunters' list: Elixir, Ethena, Hyperline, Aethir, EtherFi and Term Finance.

❕ Maelstrom can be safely included in the "VC for the kryto-enthusiast" category. In addition, all of its investments overlap with those of other Tier-1/Tier-2 funds. I advise you to keep an eye on this fund 🐳

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💰 Bitcoin continues to fall

Friends, hello, everyone. A quick update from me. Today, BTC was dropping below $60,000.

🔖 The market continues to fall, but it is not clear yet what point will be the reversal point. If the price falls below $60k again, it will probably go further to the $56k zone.

By the way, the situation in the Middle East continues to heat up. The US is asking its citizens to leave Lebanon on the first flight. This has a negative impact on all markets.

❕ Be careful and protect your deposits. Hugs to all 🔥

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📉 Bitcoin below $49.000

Friends, yesterday and today the market showed another correction and fell below the $49,000 mark.

During the last 24 hours more than $1 bln positions were liquidated.

The main thing in this market is not to make rash and emotional decisions.

We've been down many times before. We've gotten back up again.

📃 We just need to get through it without losing all our deposits along the way.

Be prepared for a rather long and exhausting wait for growth and for the news, after which it will seem that nothing else is possible.

❕ I am with you, not fixed, completely in crypto 🔥

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📉 Why is the market down?

Friends, hello everyone. I have already made a post about the fall in the market, but I decided to make another one with specific reasons for the correction.

Bitcoin fell $7K in just a couple days. Let's take a look at what's going on behind the scenes.

1️⃣ USA: the epicenter of unrest

Unemployment added 0.2% to the benchmarks last month. People are spending less - and lo and behold, Amazon is missing out on nearly $1 billion in revenue.

2️⃣ US Fed: monetary tossing around

Inflation is cooling off, and on the Fed's agenda is a 50-point rate cut at once. Such a sudden move clearly shows their strong concern.

3️⃣ Japan's biggest fall since 1987

The recent interest rate hike to 0.25% caused the stock market to crash. The Nikkei 225 posted the largest two-day decline in history.

The Nikkei 225 is one of Japan's most important stock indexes, comprising 225 of the country's largest companies.

4️⃣ Middle East storm.

Confrontation on the political scene again, with Israel and Lebanon being actively aggressive, which is having a negative impact on all markets.

5️⃣ BTC sales and capital flow

BTC sales by governments and MtGox payouts. On top of that, there have been significant capital outflows from BTC ETFs, including GBTC.

But there are positives

The launch of BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs, halving and Trump's promises (if they materialize) could push the market up.

❕ Remember, the market is cyclical: a fall is always followed by a rise.
Be patient, wait for your moment, and the reward will not be long in coming 🔥

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📤 Market maker: who you actually buy tokens from

Friends, fast order execution has become commonplace in the current market realities. But remember that whenever an asset is bought or sold, there has to be someone on the other side of the transaction. This is often the market maker.

📑 A market maker is a market participant whose role is to buy and sell an asset to add liquidity.

A market maker places orders to buy/sell an asset, which are executed either by market participants or by himself (to increase trading volume).

💵 What does a market maker earn from?
A MM earns the difference between supply and demand (spread) for providing an asset.

For example, he may quote a sell price of $20 and a buy price of $20.05. This means that the profit per 1 token will be $0.05.

🔖 What does a market maker risk?
In a word, sharp movements. When the market is hit by selling, the MM is forced to buy assets that are falling in price.

It also causes purchases to slow down as most tend to reset their positions.

🖌 Can a market maker "draw" a chart?
Hypothetically, a MM could place a large order of 3x the current price and buy it back himself. This would draw a high candlestick shadow on the chart, but eventually the price would instantly return to its original value.

In addition, market makers are subject to rules against manipulating the price of assets.

Put 🔥 if you liked this post

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💬 A little bit about market situation

Friends, last black Monday once again shook the market and negative news filled the whole information space. But the thing is, it's a legitimate....

🧯 No one has renounced crypto
It may seem that such a collapse will undermine the reputation of crypto and people will turn away from it - this is not the case. Crypto is still on everyone's radar. It's almost the main tool of Trump's election campaign....

His intentions to make the U.S. a global crypto power and his calls for the U.S. government to "not sell crypto" should not be devalued.

Not far behind him is Kamala Harris, who has hired an ex-Binance employee as her advisor.

She has also already gone to Coinbase and Circle. Why - it's not clear yet....

📑 What to do next?
Calm down, wait and believe only yourself.

The market is a vicious circle. Everything repeats and if you analyze all the past cycles, you will see a pattern.

🔖 Crypto is not an easy way to make money, where you need to take control of your emotions. The right psychology will help you.

What is your mood now?

🔥 — going up
🐳 — going down

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🩸 Is diversification useless?

Friends, today I thought about the fact that not everyone may understand what diversification is or why it is needed, so let's refresh our knowledge.

📑 Diversification is a special strategy of investment portfolio management, which reduces risks and allows you to get profit at any situation on the market.

Many people think that diversification ends with the fact that you simply shouldn't keep all your money in one place, but this is far from true.

1️⃣ This approach implies not only the distribution between places to store funds, but also their actual allocation.

For example, don't keep all your capital in one market, be it stock or cryptocurrency. Or allocate funds between sectors so that if one fails, the profits from the others will cover all losses, etc.

2️⃣ In addition, using the example of the past week, we have seen that it is always profitable to keep some funds in fiat or stable coins.

Are you diversifying your portfolio or sticking to another strategy?

🔥 — Diversification is a must
🤔 — I have a different strategy. I take risks.

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📤 It's a very busy week

Hey, guys. This week will be one of the busiest weeks in macro data in recent times.

📑 This week there will be inflation, important data on oil inventories, GDP in countries like Japan, Britain, US jobless claims and many others.

It is a super active week, which can bring good volatility to the markets.

We will talk more about all these data closer to their release. It may be a key week that will determine the market direction for the near future.

Throw 🔥 if you want to review these macroeconomic events.

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💸 ETF stimulates Ethereum growth

Hi, did you notice how ETH behaved stronger than BTC yesterday?

📑 To understand why this happened, let's look at the Net Flow of money in the ETH-ETF. What do we see there?

Yesterday we had the first day without outflows from Grayscale ETHE. I can't believe it myself, but it's a fact.

Following yesterday's example, we can immediately see how ETH can grow in its current position with Grayscale not selling.

With an unaided eye, we can see how ETFs are affecting the market.

While Bitcoin didn't move much, ETH rose more than 5% in 24 hours. And all it needed to do was for Grayscale to stop its pressure.

❕ Therefore, I think that in the future we will see the impact of the launched ETF on ether and, as a result, a good price growth 🔥

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📑 What is the connection between the Fed and crypto?

Friends, the crypto market is influenced by a large number of factors. Starting from the Fed to the weather forecast (just kidding). But I'm sure not all of you know how these factors are connected.

Let's get this sorted out.

1️⃣ THE FED

It is the Fed that influences the flow of capital into the crypto sector by manipulating interest rates: rates go down - money leaves traditional investments, the dollar falls, and opportunities for bitcoin open up. And vice versa.

2️⃣ Macrodata

Inflation, unemployment, and business activity are also on the Fed's pencil. Any changes can change the rate: inflation and unemployment fall - investors flee into risky assets. And vice versa.

3️⃣ The stock market

The S&P 500 index acts as a kind of barometer of the US economy.
For example, its decline in recent months plus the rising Treasury yield curve suggests a possible correction.

Whales like Buffett, Bezos and others are taking assets to cash, worried about an overheated market.

4️⃣ Politics

Before the US elections, the authorities try to be generous: government spending goes up, taxes go down, and the Fed usually keeps rates low in the name of stability. In addition, the cryptocommunity is becoming an increasingly influential force.

🔖 What's the conclusion?

In an unstable global economy, crypto is strengthening as an alternative asset, attracting both new enthusiasts and traditional financial giants.

❕ Bitcoin, born out of the 2008 crisis, has already penetrated the old financial system through ETFs, creating both synergy and dependence on the global market.

Did you know all these patterns?

🔥 — Yes, but it was still useful to me
🐳 — No, I didn't

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💸 The richest crypto project

Friends, today we are going to talk about a project that despite the low activity on the market, earns unreal money every day.

Of course, this is a project that is related to meme-coins and its name is Pump Fun.

📑 Pump Fun is a simple and clear product for “degens”, with which you can very quickly create meme-coins on the Solana and Blast blockchain. Now this project is the top 1 in terms of revenue generation in all crypto.

The daily revenue of the Pump fun platform has grown to $5.33 million (a record).

📥 This is more than the revenue of more than 20 major protocols combined. And BBG generally wrote that Pump fun has become one of the most profitable crypto projects in history.

In recent days, a large amount of criticism has fallen on the site due to the fact that thousands of unnecessary shit-coins appear on the site per day, on which many people lose money.

I have written about the latter myself many times, in the sense that meme-coins have a very short lifespan.

🗒 Toward the end I'll just give you some stats. Only 1.4% of Pump fun memes go out on Raydium (one of the most popular DEX).

• A total of 1,700,000+ memes were launched
• Of those, 24,000,000+ memes made it to Raydium.
• Kept the $1mln+ capitalization for over a week 41 memes
• Kept capitalizing $10mln+ for more than a week 15 memes (this is very few)

15 memes out of 1,700,000 - how's that for a statistic? Now do you see why it's dangerous to hold memes? They need to be flipped.

Have you ever bought meme-coins?

🔥 — Yes
🐳 — No

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📉 Up or down?

Friends, hello everyone. I decided to do a little market review for you. I think many of you have different thoughts and uncertainties.

Actually, nothing has changed globally. The market has recovered a bit after the fall on August 5. Now bitcoin is trading at $59k-$60k.

The main question is - do I expect a further fall?

📥 YES. I think the market will show what a real fall is. At least, in my experience, BTC will still fall to $52k. Not a financial recommendation.

But we should not forget that we have September-October ahead of us. This is the time when there will be multiples more activity in the market.

❕ If you are reading this post, it means you are one of those who really love crypto and are in the market when it is very boring 🔥

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🎈 An interesting situation has developed in the market

Friends, last week the stock market closed at the high point. Lots of positive macro data, rate cut frontrunner, and crypto just stands still and does not react at all.

📑 Normally, it would be different. Normally all markets move at the same time.

With that being said, we even already have a Binance fanding negative on bitcoin. Which means that shorts (sellers) are starting to dominate in the moment.

This situation hasn't happened since October 2023 (just the time when bitcoin started to launch its local bull run).

It is hard to say the reason why bitcoin does not follow all risk assets in such a situation.

📥 Correlation, positivity in macro data, lots of hype news, increasing number of shorts and so on. It seemed like this was the kind of news set that could launch a Bitcoin to its ATH.

But, so far we are seeing the opposite. Perhaps, the market maker is trying to kill people's faith in such a not-so-pleasant way that crypto in general will still start growing this year.

❕ But, on the other hand, bitcoin has a lot of room to fall. But, how low can alta still go? I wrote my assumption in this post. 🔥

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↗️ A market overview from me

Friends, while all the attention and liquidity is in the shitcoin sector (I will tell you about it tomorrow), the rest of the market is still moving.

I decided to share with you more localized analytics on two major cryptocurrencies.

💰 BTC / USDT

The price is in the accumulation phase. There is a trading range around $62,850 and $58,160. Recommend not to open positions inside this range, wait for a sideways exit and react to the movement.

🔹 ETH / USDT

The situation is similar to BTC - the price is squeezed between two zones, trading range $2510 - $2780.

As long as the price is inside the range, there is no preponderance of probability in either side. Setups will appear once the price interacts with one of the boundaries.

📑 Conclusions

We are in a narrow sidewall. I recommend to wait for interaction with one of the boundaries and work from the reaction. We do not open directional positions inside the sidewall as it is quite risky.

Are there those among my audience who are involved in trading?

🐳 — Yes
🧐 — No

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🟡 Spot or trading. Which is better?

Friends, throughout the history of crypto there are disputes, what is better: spot or trading? Let's get to the bottom of it today.

I'm sure it will be useful for many beginners.

1️⃣ Spot

Spot is a form of trading where you buy an asset at the current market price and get it instantly.

Because coins are bought and sold at the market price, spot is more suitable for short-term trading.

If you don't enter positions for large amounts and use non-aggressive strategies, the risks become lower.

2️⃣ Trading

Trading is a general term that includes speculating on assets in order to make money.

Trading comes in different forms: short-term, medium-term and long-term. Let's consider short-term trading.

For example, futures are contracts that you enter into on the market and agree on the price of an asset for future delivery.

📤 That is, you do not buy the asset directly, but only enter into a contract with the exchange. Such transactions have a set date of execution, which differs from spot, where transactions are executed immediately.

Here the risks are much higher and traders should carefully manage their open positions.

📑 What is better?
Of course, conservative spot trading is better. The risks of losing money there are lower than on the same futures.

But it's important to remember: as the risk increases, so does the potential profit, which makes futures attractive to some.

Which trading method do you prefer?

🔥 — spot
🐳 — trading

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📉 TON is going down

Friends, founder of Telegram and cryptocurrency TON Pavel Durov was detained at the airport after his visit to Baku.

📑 The head of Telegram was accused at once of terrorism, pedophilia and selling drugs. French authorities believe that all prohibited activities are spinning in Telegram with Pavel's consent.

Among the probable reasons, the desire to “wean” from committing crimes those who have so far “freely exchanged messages on Telegram.

• The EU will seek access to ALL correspondence as it sees fit.

• The charges are serious: Pavel faces up to 20 years in prison.

• Durov also has French citizenship, so he will be tried in the country.

❕ TON reacted to all this with a strong drop of -15%. If you keep it in your portfolio, don't sell it for anything. If you were still buying, you can buy it now at a discount. This is what I would do.

Do you keep TON in your portfolio?

🔥 — YES
🐳 — NO

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💵 A new wave of FOMO on the TRX?

Friends, hello everyone. While many are waiting for Bitcoin to go above 65k - we have a continuing memcoin story on TRX. Moreover, all interested parties give a lot of positive predictions for this week on memes on Tron.

📑 For those who missed the news: a week ago Justin Sun (founder of TRON) launched a new platform for trading shitcoins, similar to Pump Fun, only on a throne - SunPump.

Of course, first of all, I would like to say once again about the risks of working with shitcoins. Volatility is high, most projects do not even reach the capitalization of $1mln, but there is activity and this is the most important thing.

Those who know how to use it can make money.

For example, yesterday the shitcoin Yilong Ma gave 200% during the day, but then fell by 65% as fast. Such assets can not be held for a long time, you need to trade actively.

📃 You should reserch the best tokens at an early stage, enter several at once for a small amount and withdraw the investment body at the first opportunity.

Let's say you have $5000 allocated for trading shitcoins. You found 5 tokens not bad in your opinion, threw in each $ 200 for a total of $1000.

One was -50%, the second one broke even, the third one gave +40%, and the other 2 gave 2-3x. That's how in the section of a few trades you need to go to profit.

❕ There are also interesting moments. Perhaps Wif, Bonk, Ponke, Pepe will come to TRON and all of them will launch their tokens this week. This could give a new HYIP on TRON. Observe 🔥

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📤 Perfect prediction workout

Hello everyone. My scenario on BTC worked out perfectly. I wrote about it in this post.

Last 2 days the market is falling. Is it manipulation or will we go even lower?

We found strange movements yesterday when conducting on-chain analysis.

📑 Before Bitcoin started to fall down, there was a transfer of 2300 BTC to the Kraken exchange, which may have triggered the first impulse downward on the fear of possible sales of this pack.

And then we have already connected stop-losses of participants, who came to break the level of $61,500 and we saw a large number of sales, stop-losses and liquidations.

💵 As a result, BTC is back below 59k. But, what was it? Manipulation to collect stop losses or real selling by large participants?

Just an hour later, 2k BTC was withdrawn back from the Kraken exchange. The conclusion is: what was the purpose of this transfer?

To collect stop losses, to place their orders? To add more panic to the market?

❕ There is such a possibility. And if it was a real manipulation, we should quickly buy back the current fall.

Do you think we'll get back to $64k quickly?

🔥 - Yeah, we're up tomorrow.
🐳 - No, we'll go lower.

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🔭 Macroeconomics in trading

Friends, 1 in 3 people are introduced to crypto through trading.

But despite the technical part, it is also important to evaluate many macro and microeconomic factors.

Trading is active trading and constant monitoring of charts in order to make profits in the short term.

Macroeconomics - the science of how a country's overall economy works, including growth, unemployment and inflation.

📑 Two aspects I am sticking to at the moment:

1️⃣ Markets are now laying 100% probability on a rate cut in September.

That is, the markets have no doubt that this event will happen. Therefore, it makes little sense to expect to see additional positivity or euphoria at the September 19 meeting.

The positivity from the rate cut is already built into current prices.

2️⃣ Since disinflationary data is coming out now, which does not show that inflation is accelerating much, and therefore does not provoke the Fed with some tougher action.

Even still, markets are reacting with fairly weak growth, there is virtually none.

📊 On BTC we should be looking at the $60,000 level. Right now it is more likely that we will once again try to make a run there, after which we will go to $57,000.

Short-term I consider $60,000 as a zone for selling, but if the exit and consolidation above this level happens, the road to ATH will be opened.

❕ Accordingly, locally I am bearish, but in the medium term I am bullish 🔥

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