↗️ My opinion on the market

Friends, hello everyone. It's been a while since I reviewed the market situation for you, although a lot of things happened.

📔 Bitcoin has grown nicely over the last 7 days. The growth was more than 16%. I certainly did not expect such a sharp growth, but I think that we will not grow like this for a long time.

On the chart I have multiplied my further vision.

The growth of BTC also affected altcoins, but much weaker. For example, on ARB we do not see the same sharp green bars. What does this mean?

🔖 Manipulator is trying to attract more people by giving them hope for the start of a big rise.

Yes, it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but believe me — the manipulator understands human psychology very well.

Do you think this growth can renew ATH?

🔥 — Yes, it will
🧐 — NO

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💵 An interesting week is ahead

Friends. Hello everyone. I hope you're doing well.

📑 Weekend went briskly, all days the market was growing as we expected with you. Monday starts with a small pullback. It will not be easy to guess the price behavior this week, but we know for sure that there are a lot of news events and volatility will be there.

• ETH ETF trading starts tomorrow.
• There is more and more noise around the election. Biden declined to run, but I think it's not over yet.
• Elon Musk put laser eyes on his Twitter avatar (which means he expects BTC to rise).
• Trump will speak at the Bitcoin conference on Saturday.
• More and more rumors of crypto massadoption by a possible future US government.
• Possible central bank endorsement of XRP (???)

There are realistically a lot of events. First and foremost, I wonder how the Ethereum ETF launch will work itself out.

There seems to be a chance that we could see the way it was on ETF-BTC again (offloading from Grayscale in the first few weeks). Strangely, the commission on their ETFs is once again many times higher than their competitors.

❕ But, let's not forget that it's RISK ON on the fund right now, and that could greatly increase flows into the ETF from investors. It's hard to guess. We wait 🔥

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🔹 The day has come — ETH ETFs

Friends, today, there was an event that was expected for years, namely the adoption of ETF on ETH, trading has already begun, in the first 15 minutes it was more than $ 100 million of trading.

And on the first day, the trading volume totaled over $1 billion, which is 20-25% of the BTC-ETF volume on the first day.

Obviously, the token flew away by tens of percent in the first minutes, most likely it will be the same as with ETH, gradually fly to break through ATH. We can expect good values from ETH.

📑 The news is as bullish as possible. According to forecasts, the launched funds will be able to attract $6-20bn in the first year.

So far, only 9 funds have been launched and one of them is Blackrock and Grayscale. I think you know these guys.

🔖 Anyway, two fundamental assets have a nice ETF, which is very pleasing. This increases confidence in crypto, so hope for a bullrun soon 🔥

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📥 Panic in the market. How to save your nerves?

Friends, many people come to crypto for big money. But many of them miss a lot of moments. Especially beginners.

When the market starts to storm and volatility rises super high, many people start to fear it. After that comes the loss of deposit.

📑 Here are a few rules to follow to stay calm and not lose your money:

• Set stop losses. You plan your trade in advance and place an appropriate order to avoid serious losses.

• Buy assets gradually (laddering). If you invest all the available funds in a coin, it is very likely that the transaction will take place at an unfavorable price.

• Turn off emotions. In the world of crypto you need cold calculation and reason.

• Diversify your portfolio. Invest in different assets, especially when it comes to startups.

• Take breaks. You can't make all the money in the world. Save your body and mind for new achievements by letting yourself rest and exercise.

❕ Please leave 🔥 if you follow these rules.

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📉 The market is bad again, thanks to Grayscale.

Friends, the market is down a bit tonight, and especially ETH. By the way, BTC has already almost recovered from the fall, but ETH still continues to fall. Let's understand why this happened.

There were great chances to rise, but we see that Grayscale continues its dirty game and sells assets at the start of ETF trading.

Yes, they created Ethereum Mini Trust with zero commission for the first 6 months, there was a chance and hope that they would move assets from a trust with high commission to this trust where there is no commission.

But we're seeing sales again. This is going to go on for some time to come.

📑 By the numbers: ETH outflow from ETFs by $133 mln. And Grayscale sold almost $327 mln, other funds managed to raise $193.7 mln in total.

The second reason for the fall is Mt.Gox is sending its BTC to creditors. Who does not remember, this exchange was hacked in 2024.

🔖 And now we see how the symbiosis of these two factors has contributed.Now we can only wait for Grayscale to sell all its ETH, just like it did with BTC.

Do you think we will touch the price of $2,900 for ETH? (currently $3,100).

🔥 — YES
🐳 — NO

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🔤 Excursion into the world of investment funds

Friends, when analyzing projects, we pay attention to a lot of parameters. One of them is inevitably investors. I propose to break down this topic in more detail today.

Investors are understood as both investment funds and project adviser.

📤 All funds can be categorized by value: tier-1, tier-2 and tier-3. The tier-1 funds (the very best) can include:

• Andreessen Horowitz (a16z crypto);
• Paradigm;
• Coinbase Ventures;
• Pantera Capital;
• Dragonfly Capital;
• Binance Labs.

and others....

It is worth noting that funds bring not only money to the project, but also often help in the form of their analysts and connections.

➡️ Founders of other crypto projects can act as an adviser and also help in development.

How do funds invest?

As a rule of thumb for investing, funds have several rounds: pre-seed, seed, series A, series B, etc.

In each next round the conditions are less favorable, but the risk of bankruptcy of the project is also lower.

🔖 It is those who enter in the early stages who earn the most. Hundreds of percent are made exactly there.

Do you pay attention to investors before buying a token into your portfolio?

🔥 - Of course
🐳 - No, I don't

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💬 My thoughts after Trump's speech

Friends, yesterday my infospace was filled with news and discussion of Trump's extreme speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

📥 In general, there were only positive words for Bitcoin and the entire crypto in general. For example, Trump said that he wants to make the US the “cryptocurrency capital of the world.”

He also spoke out about the regulation of the crypto industry, saying that the rules will be written by people who respect crypto, not those who hate it.

Then he also said that he would fire Gary Gensler (head of the SEC) on his first day in office.

There were many more statements, but they can be characterized as “BTC to the moon!”. And yes, that's another Trump quote.

📑 What should we expect before and after the election?

Obviously, all of the recent statements are extremely bullish in nature. Given the cyclical nature of the market and the narratives that portend a bullrun (halving, ETF adoption), its approach is quite expected.

However, for all that, the market has not reacted significantly to the announcements. It is quite possible that everything will happen like in spring, when we saw the growth of BTC only in a few months.

But we should not forget that things do not always go according to plan.

❕ In any case, now it is important to stay in crypto and keep an eye on what is happening, as you don't even know where the next opportunity will come from 🔥

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📤 New ATH BTC this week

Friends, I don't know what has to happen for a bitcoin not to update its all time high this week. Super many bullish triggers that we've mentioned more than once.

📑 Oh yeah, plus the weekend added Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, where he appeared as the market's chief bull.

It is clear that we should not believe 100% the words of the presidential candidate. I wrote about this yesterday.

Yes, of course, we have Grayscale, which crushes the price of ETH with its sales, but if the market euphoria wakes up now, the market will be able to absorb this offer as well.

Another argument is that the correction on the stock has likely come to a close and the trend could continue. Especially strong looks Ressel2000, with which bitcoin correlates the strongest.

🔖 All the panic has been absorbed, all the FUD has already dried up, there is a lot of positivity, there is something to frontrun. Like the election, rate cuts or future bids for new ETFs.

ATH soon 🔥 But a pullback to the downside is likely to follow.

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💵 How not to get on honeypot?

Friends, imagine: a new coin, the chart is flying upwards, promises of golden mountains...
You are ready to invest, but stop! You might be facing a cunning honeypot — a trap designed to fool gullible investors.

📥 How does this scheme work?

• Tempting Bait. Scammers clone popular coins or create one-day projects with unrealistic promises of profits. They have a perpetually rising chart with no drawdowns.
• Smart contract with a secret. The code contains a mechanism that allows fraudsters to block the sale of tokens after purchase. The money gets trapped!
• Disappearance. Once scammers accumulate enough funds, they disappear, leaving investors with nothing.

🔖 Signs of honeypot:

• Closed source smart contract.
• Anonymous development team.
• Social media with fake followers and aggressive marketing.
• Promises of super big returns too good to be true.

📑 How not to get caught?

• Check the project and its creators thoroughly, you can do it here.
• Check the source code of the smart contract (if it is open source).
• Don't trust quick and easy money.

❕ Remember: in the world of cryptocurrencies it is important to keep a cool head and carefully check the information. Safety first 🔥

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📉 Why was the market falling today?

Friends, today the market is not in the best condition. Let's understand.

Yesterday the Fed meeting was held, where everything was quite positive. Powell made it clear that the Fed Funds rate is likely to be cut in September. Of course, they will be looking at annual inflation and so on.

📑 There is an important but. The annual inflation sample includes all 12 months, a new month is added, the one from a year ago is dropped from the calculation. (I hope that's clear). Last year, August/September for two added as much as 0.9% to inflation.

Which means that if inflation is 0% in those months this year, the rate cut will be 100%.

By the way, a 100% cut is also already mortgaged by the market, so we could have a frontrunner in August/September. And even if we fall now, it doesn't change anything globally.

I keep betting on September as a month with possible positivity for risk assets (crypto)

🔖 Why did it fall?

1) Fed meeting pattern. The first 2-3 days after the meeting the market always falls.
2) Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

❕ It's hard, it's boring, it's exhausting. But this is the market, and there is no other way. 70% of the time the market is either falling or flat, and only 30% is growing 🔥

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🥅 Cryptofund with the best projects

Friends, today within the rubric "Exploring the fund from the inside" we will once again dive into the world of fundraising. This time I will tell you about a fund that even experienced analysts overlook.

🪙 Maelstrom is a Tier-3 crypto fund founded by the well-known Arthur Hayes.

VC investments are spread across sectors:
• DeFi (50%)
• Blockchain Infrastructure (25%)
• Blockchain Service (12.5%)
• NFT (6.25%)
• Social (6.25%)

🟢 The fund was founded in 2022. You probably know its founder from numerous essays, but many people haven't even studied his background.

Work experience:
• Trader at Deutsche Bank;
• senior trader at Citigroup;
• CEO of BitMEX;
• Founder of 100X Group.

📑 Of interest: Hayes recently announced the launch of the "Bitcoin Grant Program" on behalf of a fund to support product developers in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

There are only 16 projects in the fund's portfolio, but a sampling of them is worthy of special attention.

Many of them were on the drophunters' list: Elixir, Ethena, Hyperline, Aethir, EtherFi and Term Finance.

❕ Maelstrom can be safely included in the "VC for the kryto-enthusiast" category. In addition, all of its investments overlap with those of other Tier-1/Tier-2 funds. I advise you to keep an eye on this fund 🐳

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💰 Bitcoin continues to fall

Friends, hello, everyone. A quick update from me. Today, BTC was dropping below $60,000.

🔖 The market continues to fall, but it is not clear yet what point will be the reversal point. If the price falls below $60k again, it will probably go further to the $56k zone.

By the way, the situation in the Middle East continues to heat up. The US is asking its citizens to leave Lebanon on the first flight. This has a negative impact on all markets.

❕ Be careful and protect your deposits. Hugs to all 🔥

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📉 Bitcoin below $49.000

Friends, yesterday and today the market showed another correction and fell below the $49,000 mark.

During the last 24 hours more than $1 bln positions were liquidated.

The main thing in this market is not to make rash and emotional decisions.

We've been down many times before. We've gotten back up again.

📃 We just need to get through it without losing all our deposits along the way.

Be prepared for a rather long and exhausting wait for growth and for the news, after which it will seem that nothing else is possible.

❕ I am with you, not fixed, completely in crypto 🔥

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📉 Why is the market down?

Friends, hello everyone. I have already made a post about the fall in the market, but I decided to make another one with specific reasons for the correction.

Bitcoin fell $7K in just a couple days. Let's take a look at what's going on behind the scenes.

1️⃣ USA: the epicenter of unrest

Unemployment added 0.2% to the benchmarks last month. People are spending less - and lo and behold, Amazon is missing out on nearly $1 billion in revenue.

2️⃣ US Fed: monetary tossing around

Inflation is cooling off, and on the Fed's agenda is a 50-point rate cut at once. Such a sudden move clearly shows their strong concern.

3️⃣ Japan's biggest fall since 1987

The recent interest rate hike to 0.25% caused the stock market to crash. The Nikkei 225 posted the largest two-day decline in history.

The Nikkei 225 is one of Japan's most important stock indexes, comprising 225 of the country's largest companies.

4️⃣ Middle East storm.

Confrontation on the political scene again, with Israel and Lebanon being actively aggressive, which is having a negative impact on all markets.

5️⃣ BTC sales and capital flow

BTC sales by governments and MtGox payouts. On top of that, there have been significant capital outflows from BTC ETFs, including GBTC.

But there are positives

The launch of BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs, halving and Trump's promises (if they materialize) could push the market up.

❕ Remember, the market is cyclical: a fall is always followed by a rise.
Be patient, wait for your moment, and the reward will not be long in coming 🔥

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📤 Market maker: who you actually buy tokens from

Friends, fast order execution has become commonplace in the current market realities. But remember that whenever an asset is bought or sold, there has to be someone on the other side of the transaction. This is often the market maker.

📑 A market maker is a market participant whose role is to buy and sell an asset to add liquidity.

A market maker places orders to buy/sell an asset, which are executed either by market participants or by himself (to increase trading volume).

💵 What does a market maker earn from?
A MM earns the difference between supply and demand (spread) for providing an asset.

For example, he may quote a sell price of $20 and a buy price of $20.05. This means that the profit per 1 token will be $0.05.

🔖 What does a market maker risk?
In a word, sharp movements. When the market is hit by selling, the MM is forced to buy assets that are falling in price.

It also causes purchases to slow down as most tend to reset their positions.

🖌 Can a market maker "draw" a chart?
Hypothetically, a MM could place a large order of 3x the current price and buy it back himself. This would draw a high candlestick shadow on the chart, but eventually the price would instantly return to its original value.

In addition, market makers are subject to rules against manipulating the price of assets.

Put 🔥 if you liked this post

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💬 A little bit about market situation

Friends, last black Monday once again shook the market and negative news filled the whole information space. But the thing is, it's a legitimate....

🧯 No one has renounced crypto
It may seem that such a collapse will undermine the reputation of crypto and people will turn away from it - this is not the case. Crypto is still on everyone's radar. It's almost the main tool of Trump's election campaign....

His intentions to make the U.S. a global crypto power and his calls for the U.S. government to "not sell crypto" should not be devalued.

Not far behind him is Kamala Harris, who has hired an ex-Binance employee as her advisor.

She has also already gone to Coinbase and Circle. Why - it's not clear yet....

📑 What to do next?
Calm down, wait and believe only yourself.

The market is a vicious circle. Everything repeats and if you analyze all the past cycles, you will see a pattern.

🔖 Crypto is not an easy way to make money, where you need to take control of your emotions. The right psychology will help you.

What is your mood now?

🔥 — going up
🐳 — going down

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🩸 Is diversification useless?

Friends, today I thought about the fact that not everyone may understand what diversification is or why it is needed, so let's refresh our knowledge.

📑 Diversification is a special strategy of investment portfolio management, which reduces risks and allows you to get profit at any situation on the market.

Many people think that diversification ends with the fact that you simply shouldn't keep all your money in one place, but this is far from true.

1️⃣ This approach implies not only the distribution between places to store funds, but also their actual allocation.

For example, don't keep all your capital in one market, be it stock or cryptocurrency. Or allocate funds between sectors so that if one fails, the profits from the others will cover all losses, etc.

2️⃣ In addition, using the example of the past week, we have seen that it is always profitable to keep some funds in fiat or stable coins.

Are you diversifying your portfolio or sticking to another strategy?

🔥 — Diversification is a must
🤔 — I have a different strategy. I take risks.

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📤 It's a very busy week

Hey, guys. This week will be one of the busiest weeks in macro data in recent times.

📑 This week there will be inflation, important data on oil inventories, GDP in countries like Japan, Britain, US jobless claims and many others.

It is a super active week, which can bring good volatility to the markets.

We will talk more about all these data closer to their release. It may be a key week that will determine the market direction for the near future.

Throw 🔥 if you want to review these macroeconomic events.

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💸 ETF stimulates Ethereum growth

Hi, did you notice how ETH behaved stronger than BTC yesterday?

📑 To understand why this happened, let's look at the Net Flow of money in the ETH-ETF. What do we see there?

Yesterday we had the first day without outflows from Grayscale ETHE. I can't believe it myself, but it's a fact.

Following yesterday's example, we can immediately see how ETH can grow in its current position with Grayscale not selling.

With an unaided eye, we can see how ETFs are affecting the market.

While Bitcoin didn't move much, ETH rose more than 5% in 24 hours. And all it needed to do was for Grayscale to stop its pressure.

❕ Therefore, I think that in the future we will see the impact of the launched ETF on ether and, as a result, a good price growth 🔥

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📑 What is the connection between the Fed and crypto?

Friends, the crypto market is influenced by a large number of factors. Starting from the Fed to the weather forecast (just kidding). But I'm sure not all of you know how these factors are connected.

Let's get this sorted out.

1️⃣ THE FED

It is the Fed that influences the flow of capital into the crypto sector by manipulating interest rates: rates go down - money leaves traditional investments, the dollar falls, and opportunities for bitcoin open up. And vice versa.

2️⃣ Macrodata

Inflation, unemployment, and business activity are also on the Fed's pencil. Any changes can change the rate: inflation and unemployment fall - investors flee into risky assets. And vice versa.

3️⃣ The stock market

The S&P 500 index acts as a kind of barometer of the US economy.
For example, its decline in recent months plus the rising Treasury yield curve suggests a possible correction.

Whales like Buffett, Bezos and others are taking assets to cash, worried about an overheated market.

4️⃣ Politics

Before the US elections, the authorities try to be generous: government spending goes up, taxes go down, and the Fed usually keeps rates low in the name of stability. In addition, the cryptocommunity is becoming an increasingly influential force.

🔖 What's the conclusion?

In an unstable global economy, crypto is strengthening as an alternative asset, attracting both new enthusiasts and traditional financial giants.

❕ Bitcoin, born out of the 2008 crisis, has already penetrated the old financial system through ETFs, creating both synergy and dependence on the global market.

Did you know all these patterns?

🔥 — Yes, but it was still useful to me
🐳 — No, I didn't

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💸 The richest crypto project

Friends, today we are going to talk about a project that despite the low activity on the market, earns unreal money every day.

Of course, this is a project that is related to meme-coins and its name is Pump Fun.

📑 Pump Fun is a simple and clear product for “degens”, with which you can very quickly create meme-coins on the Solana and Blast blockchain. Now this project is the top 1 in terms of revenue generation in all crypto.

The daily revenue of the Pump fun platform has grown to $5.33 million (a record).

📥 This is more than the revenue of more than 20 major protocols combined. And BBG generally wrote that Pump fun has become one of the most profitable crypto projects in history.

In recent days, a large amount of criticism has fallen on the site due to the fact that thousands of unnecessary shit-coins appear on the site per day, on which many people lose money.

I have written about the latter myself many times, in the sense that meme-coins have a very short lifespan.

🗒 Toward the end I'll just give you some stats. Only 1.4% of Pump fun memes go out on Raydium (one of the most popular DEX).

• A total of 1,700,000+ memes were launched
• Of those, 24,000,000+ memes made it to Raydium.
• Kept the $1mln+ capitalization for over a week 41 memes
• Kept capitalizing $10mln+ for more than a week 15 memes (this is very few)

15 memes out of 1,700,000 - how's that for a statistic? Now do you see why it's dangerous to hold memes? They need to be flipped.

Have you ever bought meme-coins?

🔥 — Yes
🐳 — No

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