📈 July may show growth

Friends, hello everyone. Even though July started with a fall, but if we look at the map of BTC returns by month, we can see that the current month most often closed in a good plus for the market.

📑 In 20, 21,22 BTC closed the month around +20% to its price.

I would like to see BTC show the same behaviour this year as well. Altcoins are trying to find another bottom, but so far without results.

For example, STRK continues to make a new ATL every day. A rebound should be around the corner. I don't know how many more people are willing to sell this asset at this price.

I do think that we will close July at the values where we started. We'll stay at zero.

Taiko and LayerZero are performing well today. With the market falling, these 2 assets are adding value. ZRO broke the $4 mark in a moment and updated its ATH. By the way, we as sold some of our airdrop.

❕ Closer to the beginning of August I think may start to revalue the market under the positive phase. And it will all flow into the autumn 🔥

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🩸 The market is redder still

Friends, I think you have already seen that the market has fallen a stone today. The big player spared no one. But I hope you were ready for it.

📑 In this post on July 1 and wrote that bitcoin will fall to $57k. Which is exactly what happened.

Remember, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, various indicators are not as important as understanding the psychology of the crowd.

The market is ruled by people, and people are ruled by emotions.

A big player understands this very well. I hope that in time you will master this too.

❕ The post is short, but I encourage you to master not just basic knowledge about crypto, but to dive a little deeper to understand how a market maker will act.

Have a good day and evening, everyone. You are the champions 🔥

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📉 Reasons for the fall

Friends, the marketplace continues "bloodshed", BTC with ETH give -25% from their ATH, and viola has returned to its minimum values of 2023.

📑 Many are wondering: what can this be related to?

One reason is the official start of the payouts of the previously popular Mt.Gox exchange.

Background:

Mt.Gox, the largest cryptocurrency exchange that processed up to 70% of the world's BTC transactions, collapsed in 2014 due to the loss of 850,000 BTC due to hacking and mismanagement. Withdrawals were blocked, leading to bankruptcy.

I recommend reading the book "Digital Gold" written by Nathaniel Popper to fully understand the history of not only Bitcoin, but also the first major cryptocurrency exchange!

💡 The whole point is that payments to creditors will be made in BTC and BCH. The likelihood that the "victims" will start selling them on the market en masse to lock in profits or offset their losses is high.

This can largely affect the price of BTC, which is what we are seeing now.

How is your portfolio feeling?

🔥 — slimmed down
🐳 — tolerate and do not sell

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🐋 How whales are found

The fact that blockchain transaction data is publicly available allows it to be used to analyze the behavior of other users on the network. Specifically for onchain analytics.

📑 Onchain analytics is the analytics of data discovered in an open source blockchain. In other words, the dynamics of everything going on behind the scenes of crypto projects.

Onchain data allows you to see exactly: who owns what, what transactions are being made, etc. All this information is stored in blocks or transaction records.

📘 Examples of onchain analysis metrics:

1️⃣ Transaction volume. A metric that measures the total number of transactions that have occurred on a blockchain. Used to assess the level of activity on the network.

2️⃣ Smart money analysis (behavior of large players). Venture capital funds or whales can play the role of a major player. Due to their large amounts of funds, they are able to influence the price of an asset. Also, to some extent, they can foresee future trends and narratives in the market.

3️⃣ Number of active addresses / users. This metric shows the number of addresses that have made at least one transaction within a certain time. If the number of active addresses is high, it indicates that the project has a strong user base.

Services for on-chain analytics:
• Nansen
• Glassnode
• Dune
• Token Terminal
• DefiLlama

❕ I advise you to familiarize yourself with and study these services. It will definitely be useful.

Put 🔥 if you like this post

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🔦 Is the alt season coming up?

Friends, the week started with green bars. Many altcoins are adding 10% or more in price. So far, of the assets we keep in our portfolio, Ethfi is growing the strongest.

📥 We can see an overweighting towards Ethereum-based projects. Within two weeks ETH-ETF should be launched, it is time to start frontrunning this event.

In general, the market now has a good chance for a small reversal. We need to see BTC above $59k as confirmation.

In terms of altcoins, I'm leaning more towards fundamental projects than memes right now.

The meme narrative has been too strong in recent months and it's like it's reached a localized peak. But sniping still works well.

❕ The way the market works is that the next trend and hype starts where there was a maximum of negativity not so long ago 🔥

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💎 One of my favorite tokens

Friends, hello everyone. I'm sure that there are still some guys among my audience who haven't bought altcoins in their portfolio.

📑 If this is about you, I advise you to take a closer look at APT. I have already written about this asset, but now I have more interesting speculations.

As you already know, if an asset has a lot of attention and a lot of people have bought it, it is unlikely that it will fly like a rocket.

In order for it to give a multiple of growth, the market maker needs to put the crowd through a big drawdown.

Speaking of Aptos, a lot of people have forgotten about it altogether now. Everyone is discussing ARB, OP, STRK, ZK and so on. To me, that's a good sign. The crowd is staying away from APT.

❕ Because of this, it will be easier for the big player to pump the asset. That's why I think it's a pretty good buy point on APT right now. Not a financial asset.

Good luck, everyone 🔥

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📤 What do I expect from the market?

Friends, hello everyone. I decided to write some thoughts about the market for you. You guys love it.

📑 I will be brief. Now BTC is squeezed in the corridor between $53k and $59k. Today there were 2 false breakdowns, after which the price remained in place.

I think, in the near future we will see a small positive and recovery of BTC to 60k.

But after that I expect a fall to $56-$53k.

On altcoins. If you still haven't bought top coins, it's worth making your first purchases now. But I think there are not many of them here. Most people now have more than 50% of their deposit in altcoins.

❕ If you fall into this group, I advise you to wait for now. The market will still give good prices for buying, but it is important to know what to buy 🐳

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💵 You want $235k on the NFT?

But the only thing is not to earn, but to lose....

Hi everyone, I decided today to share with you a story (not mine) that recently happened. it will be both useful and interesting.

🔤 Recently one cryptan had NFTs worth 75 ETH (~$235k) missing. The collections included 6 BAYC, 2 MAYC, 40 Beanz, and 3 Azuki Elemental Beans. For those who didn't know, the top NFT collections.

And it didn't happen because of the usual hacker attack. It's much stranger than that...

1️⃣ Who did this?
The scam was led by Pink Drainer, a team from China that recently hacked the account of ETH creator Vitalik Buterin.

Pink Drainer is a group of scammers about whom literally nothing is known. All that is clear is that there are 15 of them and their total revenue has already amounted to $75 million.

2️⃣ How did this happen?
The whole venture happened on the NFT marketplace BLUR. As you may know, they ask newbies to give access to their assets to put up NFTs for sale. And there was a «Trojan horse» hidden somewhere at this point.....

3️⃣ Chronology of events
First, the victim was redirected to a fake website where they had to sign a transaction.

It hid an authorization to sell all assets for free. And the addresses of everyone who wanted to buy the assets (except scammers) were blocked.

If you've signed a real BLUR contract before, be careful. If you are going to be asked for money for a transaction, double-check everything several times.

🔖 Security is always first and foremost. We earn to improve our lives, not to give everything to scammers 🔥

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🫥 The meme-coin phenomenon. Why is the trend still alive?

The last bear phase was quite long and painful, and we can still hear the echoes of that time. But when the market started to slowly come out of it — meme-coins created a serious boom, which continues on various blockchains until now.

🔖 Meme-coin (shitcoin) is a coin, which was created based on a trending meme, event, news, which has ever been or is currently in progress.

The main purpose of such coins is to attract attention, create trends or even make a profit, both on the part of developers and speculators.

Over the past year, the narrative has not just made its season and gone into the shadows as it has in past markets, but continues to live on beautifully, only changing blockchains and some features.

💵 By the end of May 2024, the Dashboard CoinMarketCap alone includes over 10k coins with a total market capitalization of $3.58T.

The popularity of meme coins is growing exponentially. This is similar to the NFT market boom in 2021. We've all seen the beautiful success stories on the same $PEPE coin, which in a way started this "shitcoins bullrun".

The main feature of popularity is still considered to be high profit with not much cost and short time span. Just as it was in its time with NFT.

❕ The cherished X100-X1000 beckons many cryptans. The effect of ludomania is evident here. Just open Twitter and you will see many stories of colossal success and phenomenal crashes.

Are you familiar with meme-coins?

🔥 — Yes
🐳 — No

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📤 7 trends for your portfolio

Friends, hello everyone. I have said many times that diversification is one of the most important factors for success in the cryptocurrency market.

It is important to always follow the rule:

Divide your capital between different trends to protect yourself from losses and maximize your profits.

🔖 I decided to help you with this and gathered 7 promising trends for diversification:

1. RWA (Real-world Assets): Tokenization of real assets such as real estate or securities.
2. Memes: Tokens inspired by popular internet memes, often with high volatility.
3. Solana Ecosystem: A blockchain platform with a mature ecosystem and high growth potential.
4. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Projects that use AI to solve various problems.
5. GameFi: Games that allow you to earn tokens while playing.
6. L2 Solutions: Projects that scale the Ethereum network.
7. Cosmos Ecosystem: An ecosystem with advanced infrastructure and technology, such as IBC.

📑 Always remember:

• Don't forget to invest in BTC and ETH as well.
• Develop your investment strategy and stick to it.
• Diversification does not guarantee profit, but it reduces risks.

Diversify your portfolio?

🔥 — YES
🧐 — NO

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🏅 Tough times produce strong people

Friends, today I've had an obsessive thought about worst case scenarios come into my head. I even caught flashbacks from the beginning of 2022.

📑 But then I looked at the situation and realized that globally the situation at the moment is many times better than in 2022 and we are on the cusp of a global bull run, and all the growth from October to March can be called a pre-bull market.

Yes, Bitcoin has updated its ATH (by a couple thousand), but we have not passed the very final stage of the bull market - euphoria.

I realize that the market has changed a lot and we shouldn't expect a 1-in-1 pattern, we shouldn't expect it to be as easy as last time.

📤 There are many factors that should cause the market to rise by the end of this year and early next year:

• U.S. interest rate cuts. This is a very bullish factor because its increase was one of the reasons for the start of the bear market in early 2022.

• The probable victory of the first crypto president in the US - Donald Trump. Crypto has become one of the main narratives in this US election.

• BTC-ETF, ETH-ETF and so on... The moment of BTC ETF adoption was a precedent, because now crypto is not just a “casino”. It is now available to everyone and by the liquidity in the BTC ETF we can see that it is really in demand.

❕ Look at the current market not as something bad, but as an era of opportunity, I personally know a lot of people who made a fortune in 22 years. After all, a crisis is bankruptcy for some, and for others it is enrichment. 🔥

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↗️ My opinion on the market

Friends, hello everyone. It's been a while since I reviewed the market situation for you, although a lot of things happened.

📔 Bitcoin has grown nicely over the last 7 days. The growth was more than 16%. I certainly did not expect such a sharp growth, but I think that we will not grow like this for a long time.

On the chart I have multiplied my further vision.

The growth of BTC also affected altcoins, but much weaker. For example, on ARB we do not see the same sharp green bars. What does this mean?

🔖 Manipulator is trying to attract more people by giving them hope for the start of a big rise.

Yes, it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but believe me — the manipulator understands human psychology very well.

Do you think this growth can renew ATH?

🔥 — Yes, it will
🧐 — NO

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💵 An interesting week is ahead

Friends. Hello everyone. I hope you're doing well.

📑 Weekend went briskly, all days the market was growing as we expected with you. Monday starts with a small pullback. It will not be easy to guess the price behavior this week, but we know for sure that there are a lot of news events and volatility will be there.

• ETH ETF trading starts tomorrow.
• There is more and more noise around the election. Biden declined to run, but I think it's not over yet.
• Elon Musk put laser eyes on his Twitter avatar (which means he expects BTC to rise).
• Trump will speak at the Bitcoin conference on Saturday.
• More and more rumors of crypto massadoption by a possible future US government.
• Possible central bank endorsement of XRP (???)

There are realistically a lot of events. First and foremost, I wonder how the Ethereum ETF launch will work itself out.

There seems to be a chance that we could see the way it was on ETF-BTC again (offloading from Grayscale in the first few weeks). Strangely, the commission on their ETFs is once again many times higher than their competitors.

❕ But, let's not forget that it's RISK ON on the fund right now, and that could greatly increase flows into the ETF from investors. It's hard to guess. We wait 🔥

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🔹 The day has come — ETH ETFs

Friends, today, there was an event that was expected for years, namely the adoption of ETF on ETH, trading has already begun, in the first 15 minutes it was more than $ 100 million of trading.

And on the first day, the trading volume totaled over $1 billion, which is 20-25% of the BTC-ETF volume on the first day.

Obviously, the token flew away by tens of percent in the first minutes, most likely it will be the same as with ETH, gradually fly to break through ATH. We can expect good values from ETH.

📑 The news is as bullish as possible. According to forecasts, the launched funds will be able to attract $6-20bn in the first year.

So far, only 9 funds have been launched and one of them is Blackrock and Grayscale. I think you know these guys.

🔖 Anyway, two fundamental assets have a nice ETF, which is very pleasing. This increases confidence in crypto, so hope for a bullrun soon 🔥

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📥 Panic in the market. How to save your nerves?

Friends, many people come to crypto for big money. But many of them miss a lot of moments. Especially beginners.

When the market starts to storm and volatility rises super high, many people start to fear it. After that comes the loss of deposit.

📑 Here are a few rules to follow to stay calm and not lose your money:

• Set stop losses. You plan your trade in advance and place an appropriate order to avoid serious losses.

• Buy assets gradually (laddering). If you invest all the available funds in a coin, it is very likely that the transaction will take place at an unfavorable price.

• Turn off emotions. In the world of crypto you need cold calculation and reason.

• Diversify your portfolio. Invest in different assets, especially when it comes to startups.

• Take breaks. You can't make all the money in the world. Save your body and mind for new achievements by letting yourself rest and exercise.

❕ Please leave 🔥 if you follow these rules.

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📉 The market is bad again, thanks to Grayscale.

Friends, the market is down a bit tonight, and especially ETH. By the way, BTC has already almost recovered from the fall, but ETH still continues to fall. Let's understand why this happened.

There were great chances to rise, but we see that Grayscale continues its dirty game and sells assets at the start of ETF trading.

Yes, they created Ethereum Mini Trust with zero commission for the first 6 months, there was a chance and hope that they would move assets from a trust with high commission to this trust where there is no commission.

But we're seeing sales again. This is going to go on for some time to come.

📑 By the numbers: ETH outflow from ETFs by $133 mln. And Grayscale sold almost $327 mln, other funds managed to raise $193.7 mln in total.

The second reason for the fall is Mt.Gox is sending its BTC to creditors. Who does not remember, this exchange was hacked in 2024.

🔖 And now we see how the symbiosis of these two factors has contributed.Now we can only wait for Grayscale to sell all its ETH, just like it did with BTC.

Do you think we will touch the price of $2,900 for ETH? (currently $3,100).

🔥 — YES
🐳 — NO

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🔤 Excursion into the world of investment funds

Friends, when analyzing projects, we pay attention to a lot of parameters. One of them is inevitably investors. I propose to break down this topic in more detail today.

Investors are understood as both investment funds and project adviser.

📤 All funds can be categorized by value: tier-1, tier-2 and tier-3. The tier-1 funds (the very best) can include:

• Andreessen Horowitz (a16z crypto);
• Paradigm;
• Coinbase Ventures;
• Pantera Capital;
• Dragonfly Capital;
• Binance Labs.

and others....

It is worth noting that funds bring not only money to the project, but also often help in the form of their analysts and connections.

➡️ Founders of other crypto projects can act as an adviser and also help in development.

How do funds invest?

As a rule of thumb for investing, funds have several rounds: pre-seed, seed, series A, series B, etc.

In each next round the conditions are less favorable, but the risk of bankruptcy of the project is also lower.

🔖 It is those who enter in the early stages who earn the most. Hundreds of percent are made exactly there.

Do you pay attention to investors before buying a token into your portfolio?

🔥 - Of course
🐳 - No, I don't

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💬 My thoughts after Trump's speech

Friends, yesterday my infospace was filled with news and discussion of Trump's extreme speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

📥 In general, there were only positive words for Bitcoin and the entire crypto in general. For example, Trump said that he wants to make the US the “cryptocurrency capital of the world.”

He also spoke out about the regulation of the crypto industry, saying that the rules will be written by people who respect crypto, not those who hate it.

Then he also said that he would fire Gary Gensler (head of the SEC) on his first day in office.

There were many more statements, but they can be characterized as “BTC to the moon!”. And yes, that's another Trump quote.

📑 What should we expect before and after the election?

Obviously, all of the recent statements are extremely bullish in nature. Given the cyclical nature of the market and the narratives that portend a bullrun (halving, ETF adoption), its approach is quite expected.

However, for all that, the market has not reacted significantly to the announcements. It is quite possible that everything will happen like in spring, when we saw the growth of BTC only in a few months.

But we should not forget that things do not always go according to plan.

❕ In any case, now it is important to stay in crypto and keep an eye on what is happening, as you don't even know where the next opportunity will come from 🔥

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📤 New ATH BTC this week

Friends, I don't know what has to happen for a bitcoin not to update its all time high this week. Super many bullish triggers that we've mentioned more than once.

📑 Oh yeah, plus the weekend added Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, where he appeared as the market's chief bull.

It is clear that we should not believe 100% the words of the presidential candidate. I wrote about this yesterday.

Yes, of course, we have Grayscale, which crushes the price of ETH with its sales, but if the market euphoria wakes up now, the market will be able to absorb this offer as well.

Another argument is that the correction on the stock has likely come to a close and the trend could continue. Especially strong looks Ressel2000, with which bitcoin correlates the strongest.

🔖 All the panic has been absorbed, all the FUD has already dried up, there is a lot of positivity, there is something to frontrun. Like the election, rate cuts or future bids for new ETFs.

ATH soon 🔥 But a pullback to the downside is likely to follow.

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💵 How not to get on honeypot?

Friends, imagine: a new coin, the chart is flying upwards, promises of golden mountains...
You are ready to invest, but stop! You might be facing a cunning honeypot — a trap designed to fool gullible investors.

📥 How does this scheme work?

• Tempting Bait. Scammers clone popular coins or create one-day projects with unrealistic promises of profits. They have a perpetually rising chart with no drawdowns.
• Smart contract with a secret. The code contains a mechanism that allows fraudsters to block the sale of tokens after purchase. The money gets trapped!
• Disappearance. Once scammers accumulate enough funds, they disappear, leaving investors with nothing.

🔖 Signs of honeypot:

• Closed source smart contract.
• Anonymous development team.
• Social media with fake followers and aggressive marketing.
• Promises of super big returns too good to be true.

📑 How not to get caught?

• Check the project and its creators thoroughly, you can do it here.
• Check the source code of the smart contract (if it is open source).
• Don't trust quick and easy money.

❕ Remember: in the world of cryptocurrencies it is important to keep a cool head and carefully check the information. Safety first 🔥

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📉 Why was the market falling today?

Friends, today the market is not in the best condition. Let's understand.

Yesterday the Fed meeting was held, where everything was quite positive. Powell made it clear that the Fed Funds rate is likely to be cut in September. Of course, they will be looking at annual inflation and so on.

📑 There is an important but. The annual inflation sample includes all 12 months, a new month is added, the one from a year ago is dropped from the calculation. (I hope that's clear). Last year, August/September for two added as much as 0.9% to inflation.

Which means that if inflation is 0% in those months this year, the rate cut will be 100%.

By the way, a 100% cut is also already mortgaged by the market, so we could have a frontrunner in August/September. And even if we fall now, it doesn't change anything globally.

I keep betting on September as a month with possible positivity for risk assets (crypto)

🔖 Why did it fall?

1) Fed meeting pattern. The first 2-3 days after the meeting the market always falls.
2) Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

❕ It's hard, it's boring, it's exhausting. But this is the market, and there is no other way. 70% of the time the market is either falling or flat, and only 30% is growing 🔥

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