📉 Why is the market not growing again?

Friends, in addition to yesterday's post. Inflation fell, but along with it, bottom line, so did the market.

After the decline in the SPI, the market immediately plotted an outcome in which the Fed would also cut the rate, but no. That didn't happen, as such a drop in inflation is not enough for Powell.

But, that's okay. The major decline in inflation is ahead of us. Why?

Annual inflation is the main indicator. What is annualized inflation? It is a period of the last 12 months.

🔖 Last year in May, inflation was +0.1%. This year in the same month it came in at 0.0%! BUT, the next month last year was already +0.2%, July was +0.2%, and August was all +0.5%. Get the point?

If the next months this year inflation will continue to remain at 0.0%, it means that in the next 3 months annual inflation could fall by as much as 0.9%!

And that's a clear positive.

And in annualized terms it will go below 3%, and then the Fed will definitely go for a rate cut. Let's see how the summer goes, but the closer we get to August, the closer we get to the point of market flight!

❕ BUT - this is just speculation that will only happen by the end of the summer. And we have 3 months ahead of us, during which anything can happen (fall) 🔥

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⚔️ Buy STRK again

Today with the team we added STRK to our portfolio. I wrote about the previous purchase here.

Yes, we are doing this despite the fact that I expect more market declines. Perhaps for many of you this strategy is not quite the approach, because not everyone has enough money to buy drawdowns.

But we work according to the well-known strategy - DCA.

But what to do for those who do not have so much money?

📑 Frankly speaking, this stage of the market is very hard for guys with small capital. The best solution is to dive into risky and trending areas. That's it.

Catch narratives and trends. For example, the main trend right now is memcoins. I've done several posts about it. Study them first and gradually start diving in.

🔖 Yes, it won't be easy. but it's important to accept it. Starting out is always hard. But when you see the first profit, you will realize that everything was not in vain.

Hugs, everybody. A little motivation for you.

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😱 The crowd is completely in the market

Hey, everybody. An interesting fact for you.

📑 Today I analyzed numerous surveys of people and came to the conclusion that 85% of people are now fully positioned in the market. They have no free liquidity left.

And that's their biggest mistake.

• Was it the right decision to buy assets on drawdown? - Yes, definitely.
• Was it the right decision to drop assets on the drawdown for the whole deposit? - No.

Everyone believes that the market is about to rocket upwards. Perhaps it will happen, but if we consider it within the framework of risk management, the second group of people did not act correctly.

These are the "hamsters that will be shaved".

❕ If you are working on a DCA strategy, do not deviate from it. When we see a drawdown, it is very tempting to go for all the money at once, but this is what distinguishes a competent investor from a hamster 🔥

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💸 When do I expect growth on altcoins?

Friends, hello everyone. I think many people are interested in this question. Lately I have been writing a lot about the fall, but today I would like to talk about a more pleasant topic - growth.

📑 I will take one of the most popular altcoins - Arbitrum (ARB) as an example to explain my vision.

If we consider the price range of $1.7-2.2, a huge number of people bought in it. Few of the entire crowd were actively buying at $1 at the end of last year.

🔎 Those who bought at $1.7-2.2 are now in a ~50% drawdown. And the most important thing is that this is normal for many people. They are willing to sit in such a drawdown, because they are waiting for growth.

But what do you think will happen when they see a drawdown of -80%? Their fear will increase a lot, and believe me, 70% of people will sell their positions in minus. And that's when it's time to grow.

Assets grow when few people are in them.

❕ Bottom line: if we focus on ARB, I expect it to rise from $0.7. This is the point where people will start selling assets in fear 🔥

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📉 Altcoins are falling

Hey, folks. Going according to plan. The price I wrote yesterday is getting closer.

I hope you're not panicking.

It looks very much like the final capitulation on altcoins is approaching. Reminds me of 2020 when alta fell to -90% before the bull market.

📑 And even earlier, similar to this cycle, the market pummeled where it looked like the bull market was about to begin. But the market had other plans, and it started to collapse, only to rise even more later.

There are so many parallels.

❕ Keeping calm, enduring the drawdown. Soon it will be time for new purchases 🔥

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🪂 Totals on the most anticipated retrodrops

Friends, hello everyone. I think this post will not be understood by everyone, but for a general understanding of the market picture I advise everyone to read it.

I've written more about retrodropes in detail here.

📑 Today we released the third most expected project - LayerZero. Could someone think that the output of this trio will be in this order: starknet - zkSynk - LayerZero, because everyone expected a completely different order. But, it is not so important.

It is more important that the market again showed and proved to us the fact that if the crowd runs to a certain sector of the market, nothing good can be expected there.

There was a real clearing of the market.

Have there been life changing events? Yes, they have and are, but in rare cases. In cases where people really spent a lot of effort and money on their accounts. If 100 people came in and the drop is designed for 80 people, you don't really need to stand out, just get it right.

But when you have 1,000,000 applicants and the drop is for 100 people, it's harder.

🔎 In the retrodrop LayerZero and zkSynk did not get very good results. My team made a few X's to their costs and it is already happy. But many people have much worse results.

We personally have no frustration at all in this situation. Deep down, everyone understood how it would end. Understood those who understand and have some experience.

🔖 But, that doesn't mean that retrodrops won't live on. Everything will be, and perhaps we will have very big profits ahead of us. Cleansing + FUD in this direction will contribute to this 🔥

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📉 Bitcoin has fallen below $63,500

Friends, hello. Today once again bitcoin continues its fall. Many people didn't believe me before and said that I was crazy to forecast such a prediction for the market fall to the public.

But so far, things are going as I said.

Money continues to gradually leave BTC. But despite the fall of altcoins yesterday and stand still. They are being bought more than BTC.

❕ I think we will still see bitcoin at 62k. But maybe we'll go up a little bit before that. Not a financial recommendation 🔥

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🟡 AI tokens are doing well?

Friends, hello everyone. It's not the easiest time on the market right now. You can see for yourself. Position sets at these values seem to be riskier than usual. Although as a rule, as a result, those who take risks during such periods - earn more later.

📜 That AI is the trend of the future bullrun is unequivocal. And in general, it seems that we can refer AI tokens on the current cycle to Blue Chip's.

Now I am watching one token of this sector - AITECH. The daily chart looks good. The project has some major events coming up at the end of this month - beginning of July.

Also the project is getting ready to launch a data centre. Plus soon there will be announcements about the launch of a marketplace for GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) and for AI.

❕ All in all there are high hopes for AI, we're waiting. AITECH can be analysed even more deeply, the project is very large scale. And by the way, the token is traded on a large number of centralised exchanges.

Not a financial recommendation. Just my opinion 🔥

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💸 When will money come to the market?

Hey, everybody. Today I found an interesting infographic. I suggest to analyze it. Now let's take a look at the chart.

What do we see there?

📑 Now liquidity is at the bottom of the scale and it looks like it is drawing a reversal. What does it mean? Crossborder Capital believes that now the next cycle of increasing liquidity in the global system has begun, which will certainly affect the risk assets.

But, so far we see only a fall. Where and when will the markets rise?

There is none because of the expectation of the crowd. As long as most market participants are convinced that we will soon see growth - we will fall.

But I notice now that some public personalities (including some people I know) have already started to change positions, and that's a good signal.

My position: I am not selling anything and I am not going to. The retrodrops we're getting, I'm leaving it on hold as well. I evaluate these positions in terms of 2 years, so I can afford drawdowns.

🔖 It has never been profitable for anyone to "close" this "casino". Especially now, when this market is even important in the political race. We tolerate it.

Let's put 🔥 so that the market maker will quickly raise the market up)

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📚 Books that will change the way you look at investments

Friends, I know a lot of newbies are watching me - this post is for you.

If you think books are boring, here is a selection that will cheer up even your grandmother with her distrust of "digital wrappers" ⬇️.

1️⃣ «Hijacking Bitcoin: The Hidden History of BTC» — Roger Ver.
The backstory of the bitcoin revolution: stories you can't read on regular news portals - about bitcoin's early days, its pitfalls and launch into the unknown.

2️⃣ «How to DeFi: Beginner» — Darren Lau, Daryl Lau, Sze Jin Teh and others.
A textbook on decentralized finance. A handbook for those who like to understand the intricacies of digital assets.

3️⃣ «How to Get Rich» — Naval Ravikant.
Wisdom and strategies laid out succinctly and to the point: how to think outside the box and achieve big goals in the crypto world and beyond.

4️⃣ «Secrets of the Millionaire Mind: Mastering the Inner Game of Wealth Hardcover» — T. Harv Eker.
All about how millionaires think. Practical advice and inspiring lessons to help build financial stability and confidence.

5️⃣ «The Road To Financial Freedom» — Bodo Schaefer.
A step-by-step plan to stop being afraid of financial matters and start managing them: simply about achieving stable and long-term financial independence.

Read the right books. And books in general! If you're too lazy to read, find the audio version.

🔖 Your story is waiting for you to stop scrolling memes and start taking action! Good luck, everyone.

If you liked this post, give it a 🔥

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💰 What's next for Bitcoin?

Friends, hello everyone. Failed for 2 days, but coming back to you. I propose now to talk about the market in general, and parts about Bitcoin.

🔖 If we look at the chart, we can see that in the last 5 days BTC is almost standing still with a localized falling trend. Altcoins are also standing in the same place. The market is calm for now.

What to expect next?

Personally, I believe the reversal point for correction will be the $57k-56k zone. Altcoins will also fall during this time. I am targeting the $0.7 zone on ARB (I wrote about it earlier).

What to do now?

❕ If you already have an accumulated portfolio, by no means sell it despite the drawdown. If you have no positions or you want to buy, I advise you to wait a little longer or gradually start buying. Every day a little bit at a time 🔥

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🗿 Halving has driven everyone crazy

Friends, hello everyone. I found an interesting infographic today. I think you will like it.

🔖 We all know that earlier halving was one of the most important trigger points for the beginning of BTC rate growth, and consequently, the whole market.

In the picture to the post you can see the pattern between these events.

The cycle we are living through now is very different from all the others. Its main difference is that it is faster. BTC has upgraded ATH to hightailing it. Plus, there are a lot of "portals" to new audiences in the market. For example, games inside telegram and memtokens.

It's a different time now.

❕ Yes, if guided by the dynamics of past cycles, we should see BTC at the $180k mark in the next 2 years. And I believe in this figure, but the path to this mark will be different.

P.S. Perhaps we will still see a drop to $57k. Remember these words 🐳

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💰 How the crowd is deceived

Friends, today, having analysed the last 5 months on the market, I have once again come to the conclusion that the crowd is always in the negative.

Big capitals and market makers build such a system that they act ahead of the crowd, manipulating it.

Yes, there is no direct manipulation. They just set the desired mood in the market.

📑 Take a closer look at the text below:

> They indoctrinate the crowd that the L2 narrative will gain momentum
> At that time they pummeled the memecoins
> Next they waited for the crowd to realise that memecoins have a yield above L2
> Crowd goes from L2 to memes as they are tired of just watching memecoins grow by hundreds of per cent.
> Market maker drops memes down, pouring all the money into altcoins

The main mistake people make is they don't know how to wait and always act late.

I think I've made it clear. You can draw a conclusion for yourself.

❕ If you get my point, put 🔥

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📈 July may show growth

Friends, hello everyone. Even though July started with a fall, but if we look at the map of BTC returns by month, we can see that the current month most often closed in a good plus for the market.

📑 In 20, 21,22 BTC closed the month around +20% to its price.

I would like to see BTC show the same behaviour this year as well. Altcoins are trying to find another bottom, but so far without results.

For example, STRK continues to make a new ATL every day. A rebound should be around the corner. I don't know how many more people are willing to sell this asset at this price.

I do think that we will close July at the values where we started. We'll stay at zero.

Taiko and LayerZero are performing well today. With the market falling, these 2 assets are adding value. ZRO broke the $4 mark in a moment and updated its ATH. By the way, we as sold some of our airdrop.

❕ Closer to the beginning of August I think may start to revalue the market under the positive phase. And it will all flow into the autumn 🔥

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🩸 The market is redder still

Friends, I think you have already seen that the market has fallen a stone today. The big player spared no one. But I hope you were ready for it.

📑 In this post on July 1 and wrote that bitcoin will fall to $57k. Which is exactly what happened.

Remember, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, various indicators are not as important as understanding the psychology of the crowd.

The market is ruled by people, and people are ruled by emotions.

A big player understands this very well. I hope that in time you will master this too.

❕ The post is short, but I encourage you to master not just basic knowledge about crypto, but to dive a little deeper to understand how a market maker will act.

Have a good day and evening, everyone. You are the champions 🔥

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📉 Reasons for the fall

Friends, the marketplace continues "bloodshed", BTC with ETH give -25% from their ATH, and viola has returned to its minimum values of 2023.

📑 Many are wondering: what can this be related to?

One reason is the official start of the payouts of the previously popular Mt.Gox exchange.

Background:

Mt.Gox, the largest cryptocurrency exchange that processed up to 70% of the world's BTC transactions, collapsed in 2014 due to the loss of 850,000 BTC due to hacking and mismanagement. Withdrawals were blocked, leading to bankruptcy.

I recommend reading the book "Digital Gold" written by Nathaniel Popper to fully understand the history of not only Bitcoin, but also the first major cryptocurrency exchange!

💡 The whole point is that payments to creditors will be made in BTC and BCH. The likelihood that the "victims" will start selling them on the market en masse to lock in profits or offset their losses is high.

This can largely affect the price of BTC, which is what we are seeing now.

How is your portfolio feeling?

🔥 — slimmed down
🐳 — tolerate and do not sell

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🐋 How whales are found

The fact that blockchain transaction data is publicly available allows it to be used to analyze the behavior of other users on the network. Specifically for onchain analytics.

📑 Onchain analytics is the analytics of data discovered in an open source blockchain. In other words, the dynamics of everything going on behind the scenes of crypto projects.

Onchain data allows you to see exactly: who owns what, what transactions are being made, etc. All this information is stored in blocks or transaction records.

📘 Examples of onchain analysis metrics:

1️⃣ Transaction volume. A metric that measures the total number of transactions that have occurred on a blockchain. Used to assess the level of activity on the network.

2️⃣ Smart money analysis (behavior of large players). Venture capital funds or whales can play the role of a major player. Due to their large amounts of funds, they are able to influence the price of an asset. Also, to some extent, they can foresee future trends and narratives in the market.

3️⃣ Number of active addresses / users. This metric shows the number of addresses that have made at least one transaction within a certain time. If the number of active addresses is high, it indicates that the project has a strong user base.

Services for on-chain analytics:
• Nansen
• Glassnode
• Dune
• Token Terminal
• DefiLlama

❕ I advise you to familiarize yourself with and study these services. It will definitely be useful.

Put 🔥 if you like this post

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🔦 Is the alt season coming up?

Friends, the week started with green bars. Many altcoins are adding 10% or more in price. So far, of the assets we keep in our portfolio, Ethfi is growing the strongest.

📥 We can see an overweighting towards Ethereum-based projects. Within two weeks ETH-ETF should be launched, it is time to start frontrunning this event.

In general, the market now has a good chance for a small reversal. We need to see BTC above $59k as confirmation.

In terms of altcoins, I'm leaning more towards fundamental projects than memes right now.

The meme narrative has been too strong in recent months and it's like it's reached a localized peak. But sniping still works well.

❕ The way the market works is that the next trend and hype starts where there was a maximum of negativity not so long ago 🔥

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💎 One of my favorite tokens

Friends, hello everyone. I'm sure that there are still some guys among my audience who haven't bought altcoins in their portfolio.

📑 If this is about you, I advise you to take a closer look at APT. I have already written about this asset, but now I have more interesting speculations.

As you already know, if an asset has a lot of attention and a lot of people have bought it, it is unlikely that it will fly like a rocket.

In order for it to give a multiple of growth, the market maker needs to put the crowd through a big drawdown.

Speaking of Aptos, a lot of people have forgotten about it altogether now. Everyone is discussing ARB, OP, STRK, ZK and so on. To me, that's a good sign. The crowd is staying away from APT.

❕ Because of this, it will be easier for the big player to pump the asset. That's why I think it's a pretty good buy point on APT right now. Not a financial asset.

Good luck, everyone 🔥

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