📦 Will there be a pump of new tokens?

Friends, hello everyone. I promised you that I will make the second part of the post about "the problem of new tokens". Here we go. Only, if you haven't read this post, you should familiarize yourself with it first.

.... A project can have several rounds of investment: Seed, Private, Series A, B and so on. And each subsequent round is created at a valuation higher than the previous one. This happens because of several reasons:

1️⃣ Early investors risk the most, because very often at Seed Round the project has only an idea and a small plan.
2️⃣ The later a project gathers a round, the closer it is to the exit and the earlier investors can get a return on their investment.

📑 And the situation turns out to be such that at the private level the project FDV only grows, let's take the Starknet project as an example:
• Seed's FDV — $80m
• 2nd Round's FDV — $240m.
• 3rd Round's FDV — $1bn.
• 4th Round's FDV — $8bn.

I wrote about the term FDV in a previous post.

The difference between the first private round and the last is 100x. On such private rounds, as a rule, large crypto funds come in.

❕ Now ask yourself this question: why would early investors do a token dump if they already got hundreds of X's right now?

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💰 What's going on with BItcoin

Friends, hello everyone. Today is Tuesday, but I think a market review is never a waste. That's why I'm sharing my vision for the near future.

📒 Now BTC is confidently going to the upper boundary of resistance formed by the previous ATH of $74.000. I think everyone realizes that this is a very significant retracement.

• whether we will renew the ATH — YES
• will we go further — NO

Personally, I believe that price will make a false breakout and then reverse for at least a local correction. On the chart I have visualized it.

🔖 The main reason why we may stop rising is the decrease in activity. Summer is ahead, and as we know, during this period the activity in the markets drops a lot. The business season is winding down.

What do you expect from the summer period?

🔥 — Market growth and high volatility
🐳 — Sideways and boredom

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🐸 Why have memcoins become the most resilient sector in the market?

Friends, hello everyone. There is an interesting situation on the market right now. We can see that during not the most active phases of the market or in times of correction, memcoins behave stronger than “top” altcoins. It used to be the other way around.

📑 Memcoins were rising strongly, but they were also falling fastest. It was hard for them to resist the negative market. It used to be a great idea to switch from memes to some fundamental asset (e.g. APT, ARB, STRK.) during the fall.

Now, however, the situation is reversed. Fundamental assets are falling and memes are rising. But why?

Funds are to blame. Earlier I described the situation with investment rounds. To summarize, the main struggle between investors of a project takes place even before its release.

🔎 Those funds that will come in at the very first round will probably already have 100x on paper. And if the project is successfully listed, even more.

BUT - in memcoins there is no such situation. The main struggle takes place after the token is released. The most important thing is that there are no token unlocks. This allows big players to get a large number of tokens at once and then make the price pump.

❕ In general, memcoins are just more susceptible to manipulation because of their low capitalization. It's a simple system of pump and dump. I hope everyone knows how it works though?

🔥 — Yes
🐳 — No, do a post on this topic

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🦮 Bought a new memcoin

Hello, everyone. Today I analyzed the memcoin sector with my team. As a result, I bought myself one promising project. I decided to share it with you as well. I expect a lot of buzz on the meme sector in the summer.

The name is PACMOON. The price is currently $0.18. It is the top memcoin on the BLAST network.

Blast is one of the most anticipated L2 blockchains. Now the project is going through the launch phase, during which we can receive poins. Everyone who farms these points was given a drop with this meme - PACMOON

📑 At the moment, the capitalization of PAC $51 million, which is not so much compared to other memes that hype.

The team has launched a cool interactive on Twitter, which will attract a new audience for this meme. This meme has an audience of 200k followers and and that's without the BLAST hype.

In addition, the release date of BLAST itself is getting closer and I believe that the potential of this memecoin has not been unlocked yet. That's why I decided to add it to my portfolio. It has not been listed on CEX exchanges yet, so you can buy it only on DEX.

❕ This is just my opinion. Not an advertisement. It's a higher risk 🔥

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📈 When will there be growth? Pretty soon...

Friends, hello everyone. I think you have noticed that over the last few days many assets have started to rise in value. There is no general trend, but there are point shots of 20-40% growth.

📑 Yesterday steaking/restocking tokens gave green candles. Also a lot of projects from Binance lunchpool started to rise in price.

Noticeable how alta started to go up earlier than BTC/ETH. Perhaps the last price sets before the start of that very rise are underway.

Graphically, both Bitcoin and Ethereum look great for continued growth. Also, many have already started forgetting about the ETF adoption on Ethereum, but it will be launched soon and it will provide a lot of liquidity for the market.

💡 Graphically the situation looks good, fundamentally also. Plus onchain analytics are doing great:

• Open interest in futures indicates an accumulation phase in the current sideways movement
• Reserves on CEX exchanges have fallen hard
• This large volume of coin withdrawals from CEX exchanges was last seen in November last year before the rise, when bitcoin gave 4x.

🔖 There is every argument to see a new ATH on bitcoin and other assets soon🔥

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💸 Pump the market before the presidential election

Hello everyone. Have you wondered why many financial market analysts are looking forward to the fall?

It's simple - growth on the back of the presidential election.

Any candidate will do whatever it takes to get elected. He'll pour any amount of money he can to get more attention. And an influx of new money into the economy = GROWTH. I think you can see that for yourself.

📑 And it doesn't matter at all which market is growing. All sectors are closely linked. If the stock market grows, crypto grows. It's the law.

The most interesting thing is that one of the main candidates, Donald Trump, is super active in promoting crypto. Now think about how many people he will bring to the market through slogans like this...that's thousands of people who will pull the market to the moon.

❕ But most will just take their +20% on BTC. That's the truth of the market and there's no escaping it. People's main problem is they don't know what to buy and when to sell 🔥

This is just my opinion. I do not promote any political views.

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🗿 Why you will lose money in crypto

Friends, hello, everyone. Let me explain a very simple theory that almost no one follows.

🔖 I think everyone has heard the phrase: the majority (crowd) always loses. This is especially evident in financial markets.

Just think about it, why do most traders lose money? Why do many people sell assets when they see a drawdown? Why do only ~15% of all users in the project get retrodrops?

💡Understand, no one is interested in the market to make you money in the long run. The market is a place where money goes from smart to dumb. No matter how crude it sounds.

For example, right now a lot of people are screaming about bitcoin rising to $100k. Most of the market is very positive.

Doesn't that confuse you?

People don't even think that to grow the market needs new money (liquidity), and where to get it? Yes, there is a high probability that ETF on ETH will give a small local boost, but in the range of 3 months it will not give a big result.

🔎 Also, many people claim that after giving out large retrodrops from LayerZero and zkSync, people will have extra money. Yes, this is true, but it will also not be enough.

Anyway, I think you get my point. The market is growing in breadth and needs billions of dollars to lift it.

This is just my opinion. I'm not urging anyone to do anything.

Put 🔥 if you understood the main point of this post.

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🔽 A little storm in the market

Hello everyone. I just the day before yesterday made a post about the fact that the positivity on the market in my opinion is not quite justified, and today as we can see there was a drawdown.

📑 It is especially noticeable on altcoins. For example, many people's favorite NOT, on which many people opened long positions, gave -20% in the moment. Yes, by tomorrow the price may recover, but still there were a lot of liquidations.

What do I expect from the market now?

I have already written this in one of my posts, but I will repeat it. I believe that bitcoin will renew the global high, but it will not go further. The $85,000 price is something I believe in very little.

• I think that after the new high, the price will go to a local correction.

In June, the market activity will remain at the same level as it is now, but July and August it will fall. The business season is ending, which means that people will pay less attention to the financial markets.

❕ Summer is a great opportunity to learn new things and to look out for trends, which locally can give additional profit 🔥

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🪙 Overall market picture

Today, the team and I analyzed the bull run we're seeing right now. We calculated a lot of different metrics, but I don't think you'll be interested in that.

📑 That's why I made some useful conclusions especially for you:

• BTC can grow and ETH can stand still (previously they were moving in parallel)

• ETH can stand still while other altcoins are falling to the bottom

• Some altcoins can bottom while others refresh ATH

• Memes are more reliable than fundamental coins (a trend in a particular sector can produce huge Xs)

• Institutional investors launch a memecoin index

• Altcoin index can rise without the altcoin itself

• Technology is all about pushing your fingers across the screen

❕ These are just small talking points to help you form an overall picture of the market 🔥

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📉 The market will fall again

Friends, I warned you. Today the market is drawing to long red candles again. The reason for the fall is not clear to the end, there is no news.

Today I will prepare one interesting post for you, so wait for it 🔥

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💸 The best strategy to make money on crypto

(not clickbait)

Friends, hello everyone. This one will be closely with my recent post about crowd behavior. And you and I know that it is the crowd that provides the whole market with money.

If you learn to feel the crowd behavior on your fingertips, it will be very easy for you to convert it into income.

📑 The main thing is to find the place where the huge mass of people is now and go against them. And it's actually not that hard to find it.

If you look at buying altcoins, remember how people were waiting for the altcoin season to come (to be honest, I thought it was coming too), but things went completely different. Altcoins are falling a, bitcoin is at ATH.

🪂 Also, retrodrops are a good example. A couple of years ago, after Arbitrum gave away a lot of free days to its users, many people immediately ran to do activity in others. But most of them did not earn anything and went into the minus.

How to understand where the crowd is going?

Only through interaction with it. For example, through public chats. They're in many languages. If you read them and see that people are euphoric and positive, it means that the fall is coming.

🔖 It is not profitable for a big player to lead an asset to the top with a lot of passengers. Either the most patient or the smartest will end up with him. The first option is much easier 🔥

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↗️ FOMC pattern

Friends, hello everyone. In 2024 we have already seen 5 FOMC interest rate decision meetings (today was the last one). If we trace the price behavior after the previous meetings, we can see that every time before and after the meeting, the price had the same movement scenario.

Before the meeting we fall, after the meeting we rise.

The market always tries to put as negative an outcome as possible in asset prices before the FOMC.

🔤 What are the main conclusions I can draw for you:

• It is important to always draw analogies to past meetings.
• The market maker drops the market before "positive" data, knocking out weak hands.
• If the market starts buying back ahead of data, then insiders know something.
• If the market rises slightly before the meeting, it is likely to continue to rise on the data release.

Today's meeting confirmed this again. Yesterday the market was down quite a bit, but after the data was released the market rallied strongly. My team and I predicted this and made a good profit on a local long trade. Unfortunately I did not have time to write about it, but now you know it yourself.

❔ Do you follow macroeconomic events?

🔥 — Yes
🧐 — No

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📉 Why is the market not growing again?

Friends, in addition to yesterday's post. Inflation fell, but along with it, bottom line, so did the market.

After the decline in the SPI, the market immediately plotted an outcome in which the Fed would also cut the rate, but no. That didn't happen, as such a drop in inflation is not enough for Powell.

But, that's okay. The major decline in inflation is ahead of us. Why?

Annual inflation is the main indicator. What is annualized inflation? It is a period of the last 12 months.

🔖 Last year in May, inflation was +0.1%. This year in the same month it came in at 0.0%! BUT, the next month last year was already +0.2%, July was +0.2%, and August was all +0.5%. Get the point?

If the next months this year inflation will continue to remain at 0.0%, it means that in the next 3 months annual inflation could fall by as much as 0.9%!

And that's a clear positive.

And in annualized terms it will go below 3%, and then the Fed will definitely go for a rate cut. Let's see how the summer goes, but the closer we get to August, the closer we get to the point of market flight!

❕ BUT - this is just speculation that will only happen by the end of the summer. And we have 3 months ahead of us, during which anything can happen (fall) 🔥

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⚔️ Buy STRK again

Today with the team we added STRK to our portfolio. I wrote about the previous purchase here.

Yes, we are doing this despite the fact that I expect more market declines. Perhaps for many of you this strategy is not quite the approach, because not everyone has enough money to buy drawdowns.

But we work according to the well-known strategy - DCA.

But what to do for those who do not have so much money?

📑 Frankly speaking, this stage of the market is very hard for guys with small capital. The best solution is to dive into risky and trending areas. That's it.

Catch narratives and trends. For example, the main trend right now is memcoins. I've done several posts about it. Study them first and gradually start diving in.

🔖 Yes, it won't be easy. but it's important to accept it. Starting out is always hard. But when you see the first profit, you will realize that everything was not in vain.

Hugs, everybody. A little motivation for you.

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😱 The crowd is completely in the market

Hey, everybody. An interesting fact for you.

📑 Today I analyzed numerous surveys of people and came to the conclusion that 85% of people are now fully positioned in the market. They have no free liquidity left.

And that's their biggest mistake.

• Was it the right decision to buy assets on drawdown? - Yes, definitely.
• Was it the right decision to drop assets on the drawdown for the whole deposit? - No.

Everyone believes that the market is about to rocket upwards. Perhaps it will happen, but if we consider it within the framework of risk management, the second group of people did not act correctly.

These are the "hamsters that will be shaved".

❕ If you are working on a DCA strategy, do not deviate from it. When we see a drawdown, it is very tempting to go for all the money at once, but this is what distinguishes a competent investor from a hamster 🔥

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💸 When do I expect growth on altcoins?

Friends, hello everyone. I think many people are interested in this question. Lately I have been writing a lot about the fall, but today I would like to talk about a more pleasant topic - growth.

📑 I will take one of the most popular altcoins - Arbitrum (ARB) as an example to explain my vision.

If we consider the price range of $1.7-2.2, a huge number of people bought in it. Few of the entire crowd were actively buying at $1 at the end of last year.

🔎 Those who bought at $1.7-2.2 are now in a ~50% drawdown. And the most important thing is that this is normal for many people. They are willing to sit in such a drawdown, because they are waiting for growth.

But what do you think will happen when they see a drawdown of -80%? Their fear will increase a lot, and believe me, 70% of people will sell their positions in minus. And that's when it's time to grow.

Assets grow when few people are in them.

❕ Bottom line: if we focus on ARB, I expect it to rise from $0.7. This is the point where people will start selling assets in fear 🔥

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📉 Altcoins are falling

Hey, folks. Going according to plan. The price I wrote yesterday is getting closer.

I hope you're not panicking.

It looks very much like the final capitulation on altcoins is approaching. Reminds me of 2020 when alta fell to -90% before the bull market.

📑 And even earlier, similar to this cycle, the market pummeled where it looked like the bull market was about to begin. But the market had other plans, and it started to collapse, only to rise even more later.

There are so many parallels.

❕ Keeping calm, enduring the drawdown. Soon it will be time for new purchases 🔥

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🪂 Totals on the most anticipated retrodrops

Friends, hello everyone. I think this post will not be understood by everyone, but for a general understanding of the market picture I advise everyone to read it.

I've written more about retrodropes in detail here.

📑 Today we released the third most expected project - LayerZero. Could someone think that the output of this trio will be in this order: starknet - zkSynk - LayerZero, because everyone expected a completely different order. But, it is not so important.

It is more important that the market again showed and proved to us the fact that if the crowd runs to a certain sector of the market, nothing good can be expected there.

There was a real clearing of the market.

Have there been life changing events? Yes, they have and are, but in rare cases. In cases where people really spent a lot of effort and money on their accounts. If 100 people came in and the drop is designed for 80 people, you don't really need to stand out, just get it right.

But when you have 1,000,000 applicants and the drop is for 100 people, it's harder.

🔎 In the retrodrop LayerZero and zkSynk did not get very good results. My team made a few X's to their costs and it is already happy. But many people have much worse results.

We personally have no frustration at all in this situation. Deep down, everyone understood how it would end. Understood those who understand and have some experience.

🔖 But, that doesn't mean that retrodrops won't live on. Everything will be, and perhaps we will have very big profits ahead of us. Cleansing + FUD in this direction will contribute to this 🔥

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📉 Bitcoin has fallen below $63,500

Friends, hello. Today once again bitcoin continues its fall. Many people didn't believe me before and said that I was crazy to forecast such a prediction for the market fall to the public.

But so far, things are going as I said.

Money continues to gradually leave BTC. But despite the fall of altcoins yesterday and stand still. They are being bought more than BTC.

❕ I think we will still see bitcoin at 62k. But maybe we'll go up a little bit before that. Not a financial recommendation 🔥

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🟡 AI tokens are doing well?

Friends, hello everyone. It's not the easiest time on the market right now. You can see for yourself. Position sets at these values seem to be riskier than usual. Although as a rule, as a result, those who take risks during such periods - earn more later.

📜 That AI is the trend of the future bullrun is unequivocal. And in general, it seems that we can refer AI tokens on the current cycle to Blue Chip's.

Now I am watching one token of this sector - AITECH. The daily chart looks good. The project has some major events coming up at the end of this month - beginning of July.

Also the project is getting ready to launch a data centre. Plus soon there will be announcements about the launch of a marketplace for GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) and for AI.

❕ All in all there are high hopes for AI, we're waiting. AITECH can be analysed even more deeply, the project is very large scale. And by the way, the token is traded on a large number of centralised exchanges.

Not a financial recommendation. Just my opinion 🔥

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