🪙 Notcoin - what happened?

Friends, hello everyone. Today one of the most anticipated tokens in the TON ecosystem was listed. Namely, the NOT token was released. I propose to discuss this topic a bit for a few reasons. Let's go!

📦 First and foremost, let's discuss the project itself. In a nutshell, Notcoin is a Telegram game where you just had to click on one button and get points. And after that, those points were converted into tokens.

And now the most interesting thing is that mostly guys who played the game were able to earn an average of $500 per 1 account. Yes, I surprised a lot of people, because they got these profits for free.

Why did it happen this way? Why did Notcoin do it?

The answer is one - it was the first. The project came up with a very interesting and simple mechanics, thus was able to win the hearts of people. In addition, NOT is directly related to TON, and this is one of the most popular projects in crypto now.

Now a lot of similar projects are starting to appear on the market. I think you already know about some of them. But my advice to you is that you should not put a super big emphasis on them.

❕ I think such projects will quickly die out, but now you can make a little bit of money on them 🔥

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👑 What's going on with the market?

Friends, hello everyone. Making a short post for you on the market situation. Now bitcoin is behaving in a very interesting way.

📑 As I said, my scenario did not work out completely, but the vector was set correctly. Now BTC is growing again. Apparently, the data on consumer inflation (I wrote here) gave more positive than expected.

Do I expect a sharp rise to ATH now? — No.

I think we need to go lower a bit more to renew the high. A sharp rise after the news can't last that long. In the chart I have visualized my scenario.

Your opinion - when will BTC update the all-time high?

🔥 — Before summer
🐳 — Later than summer

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🦮 Meme coins are the beginning or the end of growth

Friends, hello everyone. I think everyone has already seen how PEPE updated its ATH a few days ago. But on that day, other meme coins also grew. In particular, the price of FLOKI token increased by +13%.

🔖 The growth happened on the background of the situation around GameStop (GME). The asset rose by more than 300% after the publication of Twitter-influencer Roaring Kitty, after a three-year silence.

Twitter users (X) compared GME to PEPE, thus causing a strong shill for the project.orak liquidity to get off the memes and go into "hard" assets?

Let me remind you that very often the growth of the whole market both started with meme coins and ended with them.

his week, memes were just the first to begin to provide strong momentum. Hopefully, this was the beginning of the overall growth.

❕ These are just reflections I made based on the chart history. It is not a fact that it will happen🔥

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🔹 ETH is flying to the sky

Friends, how do you like the growth of Ethereum?) I think many people did not expect this. And in the post earlier I wrote my vision and scenario on this asset. Yes, the scenario did not work exactly, but the main direction was predicted correctly.

🔖 Today news came out that SEC should make decisions on applications from VanEck and ArkInvest for spot Ethereum ETFs on May 23 and 24 (BlackRock has officially filed for a spot ETH-ETF in November 2023)

Recently, a BBG ETF analyst revised his forecasts for Ethereum spot ETF adoption and said he now sees a 75% chance of ETH-ETF approval versus 25% previously.

• SEC may change its stance on this (political agenda) so everyone is urgently revising their forecasts. Previously everyone thought the application would be rejected, but now the probability of approval has increased significantly.

Ethereum has made +15% and is trading above $3500

📑 Spot ETF on ETH is important for 2 reasons:

1) It is a magnet and indicator for all major altcoins ( could kick off alt season).

2) No one expects it to be approved anytime soon, so it could be a white swan and with the new policies in the US - could lay very nicely on the charts.

Do you believe in ETH-ETF adoption this week?

🔥 — YES
🐳 — NO

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📦 An interesting project on the radar is Chia

Friends, hello everyone. It's been a while since I've given interesting assets to pick on the spot. In fact, many top assets you and I have previously considered, but today swept for a few more interesting tokens. One of them is Chia (XCH).

🔖 Chia is the first real decentralized RWA DeFi network. Chia was created with the goal of developing a blockchain and smart contract platform that would outperform competitors in the market.

They raised $61 million in investment from a16z, Slow Ventures and a few other top fodns.

📑 I decided to get myself this token in my crypto portfolio and here's why:

• The project has about 100,000 nodes.
• With nearly 100,000 nodes in 150 countries it is one of the most secure and decentralized blockchains focused on RWA and DeFi.
• On-chain RWA peer-to-peer technology is used by governments and enterprises through Climate Action Data Trust and Global Bank.
• With the technology developed and deployed, they have positioned themselves as one of the leaders of the next generation of finance.

The token is trading on Tier2 exchanges such as: OKX, MEXC, Bitmart and BingX at around $31 (which is very good).

As I said above, the project has an RWA narrative, which is very good as this sector is becoming very popular and against this backdrop the token can give good Xs.

❕ But always keep in mind the risks, this is not a financial recommendation, just my thoughts. 🔥

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📉 Sell on rumors, buy on news

Friends, I'm coming at you with a quick plug. On May 23, the deadline to decide the Form 19b-4 filing for VanEck expires, and on May 24 for the ARK Invest fund managed by Katie Wood.

The 19b-4 is an application to authorize trading of a spot ETH-ETF

In other words, we should actually see the decision tomorrow and even if it is positive, it is not a fact that ETH will fly to update local tops.

It is worth remembering that BTC after the ETF acceptance went on correction, where all the weak hands were knocked out of position.

📍Be careful with long positions. Reduce leverage, reduce volume. Best to hold spot. Not an investment recommendation! 🔥

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🔹 Ethereum ETF approved

Friends, congratulations to everyone. The information has finally been confirmed. But, of course, it was not without manipulations and shaving off the bulls.

📑 Initially there was a rumor that the application was rejected. Against this backdrop, the ETH exchange rate went a bit haywire. But then some time later there was official information about the approval. In general, everything is in the genre of the crypto market.

You can look at the chart yourself.

To be clear: this does not mean that ETFs will start trading tomorrow. This is just an approval of the Form 19b-4. They also need to approve the S-1 documents, which will take time. We expect this to take a couple weeks, but it could take longer.

❕ Regardless, this is a big step towards the development of the crypto market. We are now waiting for the influx of new liquidity. Ahead of the global bull market, this is super news. 🔥

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📘 The problem of new altcoins

Friends, hello everyone. Recently I found an interesting table, in which they collected statistics of 31 tokens released on the exchange on Binance for the last half a year and only 5 of these tokens showed growth from the listing price.

🔎 Yes, the correction, which came to us unexpectedly, played a big factor, but still it was not only the correction that was the main factor for such a big drop in the prices of new altcoins:

One factor is Low Float, High FDV

This means that projects come out with low token circulation to the market (up to 10-15%) and because of that it is easy for them to pummel the FDV valuation above reasonable limits.

FDV is the total value of the project if all tokens were in circulation.

🔓 A very vivid example is the token $WLD, the World Coin project. Only 1% of tokens are in the market right now and for the same reason in an upward market, it was valued at 110 billion FDV in March this year.

These are some cosmic values, even the top 3 and top 4 coins: Solana or BNB don't have such valuations.

The big problem for retail players is that all this upside is being taken away at the private equity level from funds. Because the private equity market doesn't work quite fair....

❕ Continued in the next post. Put 🔥 for an early release of the post.

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📦 Will there be a pump of new tokens?

Friends, hello everyone. I promised you that I will make the second part of the post about "the problem of new tokens". Here we go. Only, if you haven't read this post, you should familiarize yourself with it first.

.... A project can have several rounds of investment: Seed, Private, Series A, B and so on. And each subsequent round is created at a valuation higher than the previous one. This happens because of several reasons:

1️⃣ Early investors risk the most, because very often at Seed Round the project has only an idea and a small plan.
2️⃣ The later a project gathers a round, the closer it is to the exit and the earlier investors can get a return on their investment.

📑 And the situation turns out to be such that at the private level the project FDV only grows, let's take the Starknet project as an example:
• Seed's FDV — $80m
• 2nd Round's FDV — $240m.
• 3rd Round's FDV — $1bn.
• 4th Round's FDV — $8bn.

I wrote about the term FDV in a previous post.

The difference between the first private round and the last is 100x. On such private rounds, as a rule, large crypto funds come in.

❕ Now ask yourself this question: why would early investors do a token dump if they already got hundreds of X's right now?

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💰 What's going on with BItcoin

Friends, hello everyone. Today is Tuesday, but I think a market review is never a waste. That's why I'm sharing my vision for the near future.

📒 Now BTC is confidently going to the upper boundary of resistance formed by the previous ATH of $74.000. I think everyone realizes that this is a very significant retracement.

• whether we will renew the ATH — YES
• will we go further — NO

Personally, I believe that price will make a false breakout and then reverse for at least a local correction. On the chart I have visualized it.

🔖 The main reason why we may stop rising is the decrease in activity. Summer is ahead, and as we know, during this period the activity in the markets drops a lot. The business season is winding down.

What do you expect from the summer period?

🔥 — Market growth and high volatility
🐳 — Sideways and boredom

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🐸 Why have memcoins become the most resilient sector in the market?

Friends, hello everyone. There is an interesting situation on the market right now. We can see that during not the most active phases of the market or in times of correction, memcoins behave stronger than “top” altcoins. It used to be the other way around.

📑 Memcoins were rising strongly, but they were also falling fastest. It was hard for them to resist the negative market. It used to be a great idea to switch from memes to some fundamental asset (e.g. APT, ARB, STRK.) during the fall.

Now, however, the situation is reversed. Fundamental assets are falling and memes are rising. But why?

Funds are to blame. Earlier I described the situation with investment rounds. To summarize, the main struggle between investors of a project takes place even before its release.

🔎 Those funds that will come in at the very first round will probably already have 100x on paper. And if the project is successfully listed, even more.

BUT - in memcoins there is no such situation. The main struggle takes place after the token is released. The most important thing is that there are no token unlocks. This allows big players to get a large number of tokens at once and then make the price pump.

❕ In general, memcoins are just more susceptible to manipulation because of their low capitalization. It's a simple system of pump and dump. I hope everyone knows how it works though?

🔥 — Yes
🐳 — No, do a post on this topic

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🦮 Bought a new memcoin

Hello, everyone. Today I analyzed the memcoin sector with my team. As a result, I bought myself one promising project. I decided to share it with you as well. I expect a lot of buzz on the meme sector in the summer.

The name is PACMOON. The price is currently $0.18. It is the top memcoin on the BLAST network.

Blast is one of the most anticipated L2 blockchains. Now the project is going through the launch phase, during which we can receive poins. Everyone who farms these points was given a drop with this meme - PACMOON

📑 At the moment, the capitalization of PAC $51 million, which is not so much compared to other memes that hype.

The team has launched a cool interactive on Twitter, which will attract a new audience for this meme. This meme has an audience of 200k followers and and that's without the BLAST hype.

In addition, the release date of BLAST itself is getting closer and I believe that the potential of this memecoin has not been unlocked yet. That's why I decided to add it to my portfolio. It has not been listed on CEX exchanges yet, so you can buy it only on DEX.

❕ This is just my opinion. Not an advertisement. It's a higher risk 🔥

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📈 When will there be growth? Pretty soon...

Friends, hello everyone. I think you have noticed that over the last few days many assets have started to rise in value. There is no general trend, but there are point shots of 20-40% growth.

📑 Yesterday steaking/restocking tokens gave green candles. Also a lot of projects from Binance lunchpool started to rise in price.

Noticeable how alta started to go up earlier than BTC/ETH. Perhaps the last price sets before the start of that very rise are underway.

Graphically, both Bitcoin and Ethereum look great for continued growth. Also, many have already started forgetting about the ETF adoption on Ethereum, but it will be launched soon and it will provide a lot of liquidity for the market.

💡 Graphically the situation looks good, fundamentally also. Plus onchain analytics are doing great:

• Open interest in futures indicates an accumulation phase in the current sideways movement
• Reserves on CEX exchanges have fallen hard
• This large volume of coin withdrawals from CEX exchanges was last seen in November last year before the rise, when bitcoin gave 4x.

🔖 There is every argument to see a new ATH on bitcoin and other assets soon🔥

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💸 Pump the market before the presidential election

Hello everyone. Have you wondered why many financial market analysts are looking forward to the fall?

It's simple - growth on the back of the presidential election.

Any candidate will do whatever it takes to get elected. He'll pour any amount of money he can to get more attention. And an influx of new money into the economy = GROWTH. I think you can see that for yourself.

📑 And it doesn't matter at all which market is growing. All sectors are closely linked. If the stock market grows, crypto grows. It's the law.

The most interesting thing is that one of the main candidates, Donald Trump, is super active in promoting crypto. Now think about how many people he will bring to the market through slogans like this...that's thousands of people who will pull the market to the moon.

❕ But most will just take their +20% on BTC. That's the truth of the market and there's no escaping it. People's main problem is they don't know what to buy and when to sell 🔥

This is just my opinion. I do not promote any political views.

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🗿 Why you will lose money in crypto

Friends, hello, everyone. Let me explain a very simple theory that almost no one follows.

🔖 I think everyone has heard the phrase: the majority (crowd) always loses. This is especially evident in financial markets.

Just think about it, why do most traders lose money? Why do many people sell assets when they see a drawdown? Why do only ~15% of all users in the project get retrodrops?

💡Understand, no one is interested in the market to make you money in the long run. The market is a place where money goes from smart to dumb. No matter how crude it sounds.

For example, right now a lot of people are screaming about bitcoin rising to $100k. Most of the market is very positive.

Doesn't that confuse you?

People don't even think that to grow the market needs new money (liquidity), and where to get it? Yes, there is a high probability that ETF on ETH will give a small local boost, but in the range of 3 months it will not give a big result.

🔎 Also, many people claim that after giving out large retrodrops from LayerZero and zkSync, people will have extra money. Yes, this is true, but it will also not be enough.

Anyway, I think you get my point. The market is growing in breadth and needs billions of dollars to lift it.

This is just my opinion. I'm not urging anyone to do anything.

Put 🔥 if you understood the main point of this post.

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🔽 A little storm in the market

Hello everyone. I just the day before yesterday made a post about the fact that the positivity on the market in my opinion is not quite justified, and today as we can see there was a drawdown.

📑 It is especially noticeable on altcoins. For example, many people's favorite NOT, on which many people opened long positions, gave -20% in the moment. Yes, by tomorrow the price may recover, but still there were a lot of liquidations.

What do I expect from the market now?

I have already written this in one of my posts, but I will repeat it. I believe that bitcoin will renew the global high, but it will not go further. The $85,000 price is something I believe in very little.

• I think that after the new high, the price will go to a local correction.

In June, the market activity will remain at the same level as it is now, but July and August it will fall. The business season is ending, which means that people will pay less attention to the financial markets.

❕ Summer is a great opportunity to learn new things and to look out for trends, which locally can give additional profit 🔥

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🪙 Overall market picture

Today, the team and I analyzed the bull run we're seeing right now. We calculated a lot of different metrics, but I don't think you'll be interested in that.

📑 That's why I made some useful conclusions especially for you:

• BTC can grow and ETH can stand still (previously they were moving in parallel)

• ETH can stand still while other altcoins are falling to the bottom

• Some altcoins can bottom while others refresh ATH

• Memes are more reliable than fundamental coins (a trend in a particular sector can produce huge Xs)

• Institutional investors launch a memecoin index

• Altcoin index can rise without the altcoin itself

• Technology is all about pushing your fingers across the screen

❕ These are just small talking points to help you form an overall picture of the market 🔥

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📉 The market will fall again

Friends, I warned you. Today the market is drawing to long red candles again. The reason for the fall is not clear to the end, there is no news.

Today I will prepare one interesting post for you, so wait for it 🔥

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💸 The best strategy to make money on crypto

(not clickbait)

Friends, hello everyone. This one will be closely with my recent post about crowd behavior. And you and I know that it is the crowd that provides the whole market with money.

If you learn to feel the crowd behavior on your fingertips, it will be very easy for you to convert it into income.

📑 The main thing is to find the place where the huge mass of people is now and go against them. And it's actually not that hard to find it.

If you look at buying altcoins, remember how people were waiting for the altcoin season to come (to be honest, I thought it was coming too), but things went completely different. Altcoins are falling a, bitcoin is at ATH.

🪂 Also, retrodrops are a good example. A couple of years ago, after Arbitrum gave away a lot of free days to its users, many people immediately ran to do activity in others. But most of them did not earn anything and went into the minus.

How to understand where the crowd is going?

Only through interaction with it. For example, through public chats. They're in many languages. If you read them and see that people are euphoric and positive, it means that the fall is coming.

🔖 It is not profitable for a big player to lead an asset to the top with a lot of passengers. Either the most patient or the smartest will end up with him. The first option is much easier 🔥

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↗️ FOMC pattern

Friends, hello everyone. In 2024 we have already seen 5 FOMC interest rate decision meetings (today was the last one). If we trace the price behavior after the previous meetings, we can see that every time before and after the meeting, the price had the same movement scenario.

Before the meeting we fall, after the meeting we rise.

The market always tries to put as negative an outcome as possible in asset prices before the FOMC.

🔤 What are the main conclusions I can draw for you:

• It is important to always draw analogies to past meetings.
• The market maker drops the market before "positive" data, knocking out weak hands.
• If the market starts buying back ahead of data, then insiders know something.
• If the market rises slightly before the meeting, it is likely to continue to rise on the data release.

Today's meeting confirmed this again. Yesterday the market was down quite a bit, but after the data was released the market rallied strongly. My team and I predicted this and made a good profit on a local long trade. Unfortunately I did not have time to write about it, but now you know it yourself.

❔ Do you follow macroeconomic events?

🔥 — Yes
🧐 — No

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