Crowd psychology in crypto 🗳

Friends, remember one important thing: the crowd always loses and in the crypto market this rule also works. But, we can capitalize on it.

🔎 People buy token because they believe in the price growth. The reasons for this belief can be different (growing performance and demand, product, catalysts), and the simpler they are, the better - new liquidity comes from unsophisticated investors. Examples of simple narratives are AI, RWA or GameFi.

The average cryptocurrency user has a shorter attention span than an experienced player. A good product is important, but the price won't go up if the protocol isn't familiar with the dark art of marketing. Look for projects that understand this. That's where the large influx of liquidity from the crowd will go.

• Liquidity inflow -> asset price growth -> profit.

📦 But why does the crowd always lose money? It's simple: they don't know how to lock in profits. After getting +50% to their investment, they will wait for another +100%, but an asset cannot grow forever. In the end, the asset falls and the crowd just keeps sitting with losses. It is important to be able to lock in profits in time.

❔ Do you understand how to properly capture profits from a position?

🔥 - Yes
🐳 - No

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Keith accumulates API3 🐋

Friends, I was planning to make a post for you today about another purchase of "smart wallet", but it turned out that after its purchase token almost immediately began to grow. But I still decided to make a post to show you clearly.

📈 Today a large address started to re-buy API3 coin. This time he purchased it for $1.17 million. Last time he purchased this coin at $1.6, after that he sold it at $2.6.

The spot win rate of this address is about 74%, which shows us his high level of skill in buying coins at the lows and then selling them at higher values.

❕ Personally, I managed to buy some API3 and will sell it soon, as after buying this wallet the token went up sharply. I do not recommend buying it now. Only if the price rolls back to the previous values again.

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Most people are in profit 📦

Friends, found an interesting infographic today. Let me decipher right away: almost all people are in plus on BTC right now. Only 13% of people have a minus position. This has only happened in a bull market in 2021.

🔤 My view on the market:

Recently, altcoin capitalization (no stablecoins or BTC) has done a retest of consolidation and a local peak point update. This can be seen by the rising altcoins gradually catching up with the movement of BTC, which rose to $52,800.

At this point, my team and I have placed a number of orders to open a short position. At $53,000, $55,000 and $58,000. As you can see, we're waiting for the price to fall.

📍 But do not forget about the increased fanding and as a consequence possible sharp price movements. I do not recommend trading on futures now, if you have no experience, because with such volatility you are likely to lose money.

❔ What is your opinion on the market for the coming week?

🔥 - Flying to 56k
🐳 - Falling to 48k

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The market hints at a fall 🐸

Friends, decided to make for you a detailed report (my opinion) on the market at the moment. The thoughts are quite interesting.

📔 Everything looks more than good. I don't know if you guys are getting into euphoria right now, but I personally am not + not really noticing it much in the market. I only have 2 fears at the moment. It's the fundamental backdrop + the risk of "squeezes" for futures traders.

• Fundamental background: BTC advertisement almost from every major financial giant; SNN keeps promoting BTC; Satoshi Nakamoto flag over the Capitol; there are experts with price forecasts from 100k to a million. There are a lot of events. It is all these factors that lead to some doubts. It looks like crypto is being specifically promoted to shave hamsters.

I am used to such fundamental market behavior, as a rule, taking place at the moment of maximum points. Probably, if we had been in the bull market for about 1.5 years and the ATH was updated, then in such a situation I would simply start selling all assets. But, now is a slightly different phase.

The second point. Funding. We already wrote about it yesterday. There's nothing scary about it. But we will probably see sharp movements in BTC.

📍Result: The first point is really confusing, but since I look at the market more globally, I am confident in the reassessment of the market and in the growth of its capitalization. Therefore, globally, I am not confused by the hype in the market for several reasons:

1) I didn't buy at the peak
2) I partially fix my transaction
3) the goals for my long-term portfolio are higher
4) I have enough free stablecoins for possible corrections.

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Overview of tier-1 fund - Coinbase Ventures 📦

Friends, we are continuing our "learning about a fund from the inside" column. Today let's take a look at another venture capital fund that is one of the record-breakers in terms of the number of investments in different projects.

⚫️Coinbase Ventures is a Tier-1 fund that is the venture capital arm of the Coinbase exchange. The VC investments are spread across the following sectors:
• Blockchain Service (27.3%)
• DeFi (25.7%)
• CeFi (13%)
• Chain (8.1%)
• NFT (6.8%)
• Social (5.7%)
• Blockchain Infrastructure (5.5%)
• GameFi (4.4%)
• Stablecoin (1.8%)
• Other (1.3%)
• Currency (0.5%)

The fund was formed in April 2018. The funders are 2 partners, Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam. The more interesting personality of the two is Fred. He has a very good track record:
• Trader at Goldman Sachs;
• co-founder / Board of Directors at Coinbase;
• co-founder of Paradigm fund (top 1 fund).

🥅 The VC has raised a total of only $15 million in assets from investors. However, there is also an info that the fund has raised an additional $300 million in May 2022.

It is worth noting that Coinbase Ventures is one of the most dynamically investing funds. For example, it made ~150 investments in 2022, with over 70 of them in Q1 alone. In comparison, a16z crypto put in 60 projects in the same year.

📍Cumulatively, CV has participated in 353 fundraising rounds and has held the Lead Investor position in just 22 of them. Exemplary investments include: Aptos, LayerZero, Goldfinch, Lido Finance, zkSync and others. Given their "selectivity", getting into the gem is not that difficult.

Put 🔥 if this post was helpful to you...

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BTC Review | Going Higher? 💰

Friends, hello everyone. I'm doing a review of the situation with BTC for you. There are a lot of different talks on the market. I decided to express my opinion.

📑 Bitcoin still continues to accumulate energy, buying out all local drops. A few hours ago the price fell a bit again. Now we should keep an eye on it. If we go back to $42.500 again, there is a high probability that the up-trend movement will continue.

Personally, my team and I are NOT planning to enter a long trade at the moment. Why?

• The market is very unpredictable now. Earlier we expected a fall, but it did not happen. The market has been going up for a long time without any drops. That's very suspicious.

📍If you will open a long position, I advise you to enter with a short stop-loss. Short-squeeze can happen at any moment, so it is desirable to move with short and clear trades (NOT scalping).

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How much does it cost to hack Bitcoin? 💰

Today I decided to write one interesting post for you, in which we find out what "Attack 51" is and why it can be used to hack entire blockchains. And how much it costs to hack the most important blockchain - Bitcoin.

📝 "Attack 51" is a PoW blockchain vulnerability by which an attacker takes control of transaction confirmation and block generation.

This means that with 51% of the network's power, you can:

• Collect all block rewards and commissions.
• Not give transactions or blocks confirmation.
• You will be able to shrink and manipulate the network
• Steal coins that are not signed by the main block.
• Delete contracts or transaction history.

💸 So how much does it cost to hack Bitcoin in 2024?

The first conclusion is that there are no profitable ways to accomplish this. This negates the financial incentive of 51% attacks on the blockchains of the two largest cryptocurrencies. Even in the most lucrative scenario, an attacker could potentially make $1 billion, but after spending $40 billion. The risk is simply not justified.

🟠Also, let's fantasize and imagine that the government attacks Bitcoin in an effort to destroy it (we all know how they feel about cryptocurrency). In that case, the bitcoin would require the purchase of 7 million ASIC miners at a cost of about $20 billion.

And the funny thing is that there is simply no such amount of equipment on the market. But if someone is going to produce their own equipment for this purpose, the cost will be a similar amount.

So, can we sleep easy?! 🔥

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Bitcoin creator's identity discovered 🔐

I see you enjoyed yesterday's post. So I decided to make another post in the topic of "Conspiracy Theory".

💡There are various rumors about who Satoshi Nakamoto is and who he really is (he is the mythical creator of Bitcoin). Many are convinced it's Ilon Musk, and some believe that the US government is running the entire crypto. Theories abound. However, there is something interesting about one of them.

• It is believed that programmer and cryptographer Hal Finney was the first to get Bitcoin from Satoshi.

In 2021, a Bloomberg analyst was going through Finney's messages and discovered something startling. In 1993, the cryptographer actually described the concept of NFT. So the idea he proposed 30 years ago has now become a market worth over $7 billion dollars?

It turns out Finney was definitely one of the pioneers of crypto.

📋 And a couple days ago, crypto-enthusiasts provided new proof: the name "Satoshi Nakamoto" translated into Japanese characters looks similar to the name Hal Finney. But was Hal the creator?

Hal Finney himself always denied these suspicions until his death in 2014.

His quote:

I was only communicating with Nakamoto and giving him advice.

❕ Maybe Satoshi Nakamoto died with him? We don't know. But we really hope Satoshi is hiding in the Japanese islands, full of ideas on how to change the world for the better.

Do you think Satoshi Nakamoto really exists?

🔥 - Yes
🧐 - No

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A new crypto narrative is coming 💡

Friends, recently Arthur Hayes (co-founder and former director of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX) wrote a new essay called "Chief Story Officer".And the interesting thing is that his vector of thoughts in some points coincides with mine. So I decided to share the main theses with you:

📒 The current market shows that project technology is not so important. What is important is the story or "project legend". The simpler the legend is - the more viral it is. Pay attention to this.

A large number of traders are moving from centralized exchanges (Binance, Bybit) to decentralized exchanges (UniSwap, PancakeSwap) and this is a fact. It follows that DEX platforms as well as their tokens will be in high demand. And that means - a new narrative is coming.

❕ He also highlighted a list of projects, let's call this narrative "DEX tokens", that he favors - dYdX, GMX, Pendle, Krav, Elixir, Flare, Ethena and Axelar. Personally, I already have dYdX, GMX and Axelar tokens in my portfolio. I believe they can show good growth in a bull market.

📍Not a financial recommendation. It's just my opinion.

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📉 The Big Short
⠀
Friends, many do not understand how the current, excessive positivity in the markets will end; why the AI bubble and tech stocks are inflating; when it will be possible to start exiting Bitcoin, and so on.

🔤 Let's start from afar and take a look at the US macroeconomy and the Fed's monetary policy actions. After all, macroeconomics is the first step in the hierarchy that determines the global direction of trends in the markets.

The Fed's restrained policy cycle has been going on for more than two years. This is taking a significant toll on banking and many other sectors, and thus on global economic growth. But, for the sake of reducing inflation and preserving the purchasing power of the dollar, the restraint policy is still being implemented. At the same time, the necessary inflation targets of 2%-2.1% have not yet been achieved.

💵 After all, in 2020-21, a record amount of money was printed and injected into the economy. And more and more money has to be printed. Inflation, against this backdrop, is getting harder and harder to contain. Therefore, the Fed and those responsible for the stability of the dollar have to resort to unconventional solutions. And right now, they're trying to get out of that trap.

If they start lowering the key rate, injecting money into the economy without easing inflation, they will get hyperinflation of 10-15% in the next cycle, as it was 50 years ago. That is a smooth depreciation of the USD.

🔎 Why all these complicated words?

It's very simple. Let me give you a simple example. You have $100,000... and instead of buying a new car, you, seeing a great opportunity to earn money, carry this money into BTC. Naturally, you buy it at prices 50% more expensive than you could have done it half a year ago. And, you wait... Meanwhile, Powell is jubilant, because your money is no longer in the economy, but in a bubble... (the load on the economy is reduced).

And obviously, in a situation where it's time to pump new money into the economy to keep key industries from dying, you won't be allowed to get your money out with BTC at, say, $200,000. Why? So that you don't go and trigger the already double demand for autos. That's why they're putting you in there.

❕ The topic of the post is not a simple one. Do you understand this post or should I explain it again?

🔥 - It's clear
🧐 - I don't get it

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🔹 Whale continues to accumulate ETH

Friends, today's post is from one of your favorite columns, "Keeping an eye on smart wallets". Today we're going to take a look at one of the most fundamental coins - Ethereum.

📜 7 hours ago, a large address purchased $6.1 million worth of ETH. This address started gaining ETH since May last year and is currently holding $82 million worth of the coin. His unrealized profit is $22.5 million.

But even given the current profit, he doesn't want to lock in (even partially) and is exclusively buying regardless of the fact that the coin is trading at a local high point.

Over the last week, he bought a total of $18.3 million. These purchases indicate further bullish expectations of large capital on our favorite ETH.

❕ BUT... If you are buying ETH for the long term, I personally wouldn't recommend buying it right now. I think we will see $3,000 and below.

Put 🔥 if this post was helpful to you...

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💰 BTC review | when will we fall?

Friends, hello, everyone. I think many have already seen a sharp increase in BTC. Therefore, I am making a review for you.

↗️ Starting from the second half of yesterday, bitcoin decided to please us and began to grow sharply. At the peak the price reached $57,600.

Now the price is still in the impulse phase. The general structure of the market is still longing. But if we consider the price range of $58-60k, this is the zone from which we will try to open a short position. But...we need to wait for the formation of the right formation from which we can go short.

• A number of factors indicate that the market is overheated, the market structure leaves large volumes of long liquidity at the bottom. The price is going upwards almost without corrections, but there are no systemic prerequisites to go short, so I am watching and looking for the patterns I need.

❕ What to do now? If you don't have a short position now, but you want to get one, I would advise you to place several orders (grid). Divide your base volume for the trade into 3 parts and place at $59k, $61k and $64k. This way you will protect yourself 🔥

Not financial advice.

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Big announcement on TON 🪙

Friends, here's a newsflash. Telegram in March will start paying channel owners for displaying ads. This is a big step towards mass adoption of the crypto.

🪙 Payments will be made exclusively in the TON blockchain with Toncoin coins.

If we consider TON as a project, I believe that it is necessary to have it in the portfolio, but not more than 2% of the deposit.

❕ I think you can try a speculative trade on TON now. It may still get dragged up on the news. Gotta look for an entry point. But this is a high risk trade. The price is already up more than 15%.

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Has the bull market started? 🐂

Friends, today BTC made a real storm. You are probably spending the whole day at your monitors and analyzing charts. Anyway, I decided to once again briefly share my thoughts on the market situation and what can wait for us in the future.

💰 BTC/USDT

Today BTC broke through the structural level of $59.100, where the lower boundary of the weekly imbalance is already starting. There are no systemic reasons to reverse to short from current values, as the setup from the daily FVG was broken by the price (see picture).

A number of factors indicate that the market is overheated, the market structure leaves large volumes of long liquidity at the bottom. However, there are no systemic prerequisites for shorts.

⚡️ What about altcoins?

Despite the fact that some altcoins are now growing strongly and updating their highs following Bitcoin, we have not yet seen an altcoin season as such. Besides, BTC dominance is growing, and the ETH/BTC pair is showing red candles. For overall altcoin growth, it would be favorable to see bitcoin consolidation movement and spillover of big players' assets into alta and decreasing domination.

📝 Macroeconomics

We also expect increased volatility tomorrow as statistics from the US are released, particularly the PCI code, which is referred to as "Powell's inflation". This is one of the most important indicators for the Fed and could come out outside of forecasts, which could have a significant impact on the market.

❕ Wrote this post in a more professional language so that you too learn to perceive professional vocabulary 🔥

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+200% to safety 🔏

Friends, the crypto market has gotten very lively lately. This, of course, will entail the appearance of a large number of scammers. In order not to lose money, it is important to understand where to store it and how they can try to scam us.

I have done a similar post before, but this information is very important, so I decided to tell you about it again. My first and foremost concern is for you.

Knowledge is your first shield against loss

1️⃣How can we be deceived?
There are many options... But all of them are based on the following schemes:

• Phishing attacks - when fake websites or emails are used. By entering data on such sites, you hand over passwords to your assets yourself.
• Pyramid and Ponzi schemes - promises of high returns in a short period of time.
• Fake ICOs - projects that raise funds for the development of non-existent products or services.
• Market manipulation - for example, when the price of an asset is artificially inflated and then sold, causing the token to decline.

2️⃣ How to protect yourself?
This is the base, but many continue to neglect it:
• Use two-factor authentication (2FA) for added security.
• Complex passwords of at least 20 characters will help keep your funds safe.
• Don't enter personal information on suspicious sites or click on unknown links (such as those that arrive in your email and say "You've won airdrop").
• Update your software regularly to protect yourself from vulnerabilities.

3️⃣ Where to store your funds?
• Cold wallets are physical devices without internet access. For example, Ledger or Trezor. They are considered the most secure.

• Hot wallets are crypto storage applications that have constant internet access. Convenient for frequent transactions, but less secure.

❕ Yes, there's a lot of information out there, but as the saying goes..... "Hard in training, easy in battle"! 🔥

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Weekend is the time for altcoins 🪙

Friends, let's break one news today and an interesting thought on it. On February 29, investors from Grayscale decided to sell a large volume of positions before the weekend. The outflow from the fund was $598.9M.

📝 They saw the dump and ran to withdraw money. But despite this volume, bitcoin continues to stand above 60k. As always, other investors from Blackrock came to the rescue, who bought for an even larger amount - $603.9M. )

Today the market is starting to recover after a small correction. But, there is one point. Arkham (service for analytics) gave a new notification: someone sent 10K BTC from Grayscale wallets to Coinbase.

🟠Also remembering the patterns of the past bull run. Weekends tend to mark the time for altcoins. Weekdays the bitcoin grows, and over the weekend the altcoin catches up with it.

Now this pattern may even intensify, as bitcoin liquidity has become even more dependent on traditional markets, and they do not work on weekends. Therefore, it is logical that weekdays are the time for bitcoin, while weekends are for alta.

❔ Do you support this theory?

🔥 - Yes
🧐 - No

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🗣Friends, hello everyone. I'll show you a simple example of why blockchain technology is the future.

❕ I beg you: study the crypto market. This will definitely help you in the future.

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The opportunity to ask me any question 📬

Friends, hello, everyone. Today I decided to do a little interactive for you.

☑️ My DM assistant often receives various questions. You often ask questions about what direction in crypto to choose, where to start, how to earn, what coins to buy, etc.

I don't have time to answer most of the questions, as this is not my personal account and there is often confusion.

📧 That's why today-tomorrow I decided to hold a rubric "Question - Answer". You can ask me any question you are interested in and I will definitely answer it.

To write on this contract - @Treysi_crypto

📍An important condition: the question should be detailed and on a specific topic. For example, to the question "Hi, how are you?" I will not answer. Also, if I did not answer you immediately, then the message do not delete. I will answer you a little later.

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BTC updated ATH 🎉

Happy updating of the historical maximum everyone)

⚫️P.S. I will answer all questions in DM soon. A lot of people wrote.

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