Over the last 24 hours, quite a lot has happened that directly affects the crypto market, so I decided to make a small squeeze of the most important things for you.
I don't usually do this kind of thing, but today it's necessary.
β’ Accepted for consideration to add staking to 21Shares' Ethereum ETF.
β’ Accepted for consideration for launch of Ripple ETF from Canary Capital.
BTC ETFs recorded net outflows of -$65m.
. ETH ETFs net inflows of +$19m (a big positive).
As you can see β there is a lot of positive news here. And now let's talk a little bit more about the first one.
DOGE (Deportament of Government Efficiency) uncovered billions of dollars worth of fraud this month, in the future they plan to send the savings to Americans = helicopter money.
During past helicopter money ~$1200 in 2020 could buy 0.17 BTC. Now it's ~$17,000 π
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π¨ Michael Saylor's pyramid that will crash the market
Friends, on the way of any financial market there were Β«black swansΒ» that dramatically and dramatically changed the whole situation.
π€ There were no such precedents in this cycle, but, I decided to consider one of the candidates β Strategy.
Let me explain: Strategy (formerly called MicroStrategy) is an American IT company specialising in business intelligence.
π° Since 2020, it has bet on bitcoin, becoming the largest corporate holder of BTC (478,740 BTC), financing its purchases through bonds and issuing shares - and this is the point that interests us most.
Since the adoption of the bitcoin strategy, MSTR's shares have become highly dependent on BTC dynamics. In most cases, they repeat its price movements, but with an increased amplitude of ~1.5 times.
The company issues debt securities with fixed income or the option to exchange for MSTR shares in the future. Conversion becomes possible if the share price reaches a predetermined level.
π‘ Why is this attractive to investors?
β’ Ability to exchange bonds for MSTR shares at a higher price.
β’ Potential increase in share price due to bitcoin accumulation.
Everything seems fine, but... This mechanism creates a kind of closed loop:
It follows that if the bitcoin price starts to fall, MSTR stock will fall even more.
π Financial risks and possible scenarios
If bondholders convert the bonds into shares when the price reaches the right level, the company's debt is effectively cancelled itself.
But if the MSTR price falls, Strategy will have to repay the debt in cash. In that case, the company may start selling its BTC to meet the obligations, and that could cause panic.
π₯ How can all this be affected?
Right now, MSTR is on the cusp of inclusion in the S&P 500, and that moment could come in mid-June 2025. For that, the company needs to show earnings in Q1 2025.
A key factor is the value of bitcoin. If BTC holds above $96,330 by the end of Q1, Strategy's chances of getting into the S&P 500 will increase significantly.
β If that doesn't happen, Sailor's entire strategy will be in jeopardy, as the main trigger for raising enough capital for the company is the S&P 500 β without it, the ice will already start to crunch.
Put π₯ if you liked this kind of post
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Friends, on the way of any financial market there were Β«black swansΒ» that dramatically and dramatically changed the whole situation.
In crypto, among the most significant ones are the collapse of Mt. Gox, Terra (LUNA) and, of course, FTX.
Let me explain: Strategy (formerly called MicroStrategy) is an American IT company specialising in business intelligence.
Since the adoption of the bitcoin strategy, MSTR's shares have become highly dependent on BTC dynamics. In most cases, they repeat its price movements, but with an increased amplitude of ~1.5 times.
The main principle of the strategy is to raise borrowed funds to buy bitcoins through the issuance of convertible bonds.
The company issues debt securities with fixed income or the option to exchange for MSTR shares in the future. Conversion becomes possible if the share price reaches a predetermined level.
β’ Ability to exchange bonds for MSTR shares at a higher price.
β’ Potential increase in share price due to bitcoin accumulation.
Everything seems fine, but... This mechanism creates a kind of closed loop:
Bitcoin growth β MSTR stock growth β increase in bond conversion value β issuance of new debt β purchase of more BTC.
It follows that if the bitcoin price starts to fall, MSTR stock will fall even more.
If bondholders convert the bonds into shares when the price reaches the right level, the company's debt is effectively cancelled itself.
But if the MSTR price falls, Strategy will have to repay the debt in cash. In that case, the company may start selling its BTC to meet the obligations, and that could cause panic.
How so? One of the largest holders of bitcoin has started selling it? β Sell it too.
Right now, MSTR is on the cusp of inclusion in the S&P 500, and that moment could come in mid-June 2025. For that, the company needs to show earnings in Q1 2025.
A key factor is the value of bitcoin. If BTC holds above $96,330 by the end of Q1, Strategy's chances of getting into the S&P 500 will increase significantly.
Put π₯ if you liked this kind of post
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Friends, yesterday I analysed wallets of one of the largest market makers Β«WinterMuteΒ» and saw that he added $5.06 mln KAITO coin to his portfolio.
To understand (not an advert): KAITO is an AI-aggregator for crypto that collects information from Twitter, Discord, forums and podcasts.
Given this accumulation process, there is a pretty high probability to see significant growth impulses on this asset in the near future. It is worth taking note of.
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Friends, despite another local market decline, it's hard not to be surprised at how easily we survived the biggest hack in the history of crypto. $1.5bn in ETH was stolen for a minute, not from Binance, but from Bybit.
Previously, the market panicked over every ban in China or news about Mt.Gox payouts, but here the situation is quite different. After the attack, we even showed growth over the weekend.
If this hack happened on the local ATH, the effect would be stronger, but now it looks like a signal that the bottom is near.
The only question is how long we will be driven up/down.
The whole Twitter respects the Bybit team and their funder for the way they handled the situation.
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Friends, in the last 24 hours BTC fell another 8% and reached $86,800! I honestly didn't expect this to happen.
The dominance still does not want to change its trend and continues to actively rush upwards, already trading above 62%.
The market is falling, for this reason people are selling off their assets in panic.
So far, the situation is deplorable and it can only be corrected by a liquidity flow from bitcoin to altcoin, and this event will happen only after bitcoin reaches another new ATH.
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Friends, the last few days have been a bloody battle in the financial sector:
β’ Liquidations have exceeded $1bn;
β’ Outflows from BTC ETFs have exceeded $2.5bn;
β’ Fear and Greed Index fell to 10 (the values ββthat were in June 2022);
β’ The US stock market lost over $500bn.
This level of the Fear and Greed Index is reached in a bear market, or when a local bottom is reached in a rising market.
The current values should be taken literally as the end of a corrective movement, because in practice we have never seen a significant correction from the current values.
Not a financial recommendation π³
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Hello everyone. Today after analysing onchain, a large whale of an address has purchased $6.7m worth of SOL coin.
Last time, in November, he sold all of his SOL coins for a total of $28.3 million, for a profit of $11 million (at $230). Right now, the token is priced at $145.
Now, after months of waiting, he's decided to stock up again.
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Hello friends. Bitcoin is more oversold now than it was during the FTX crash when BTC was only $16,000 - shocker?
Oversold in the financial markets is the state of an asset in which its price is reduced to a level that is considered excessively low relative to its true value or trend.
The market works wonders :)
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The last few weeks have been a real storm for global markets. Political tensions, trade conflicts and instability around Ukraine are directly affecting the economy, and of course, cryptocurrency.
Let's break down what's going on and how it will affect us.
This caused the entire market to plummet sharply.
β’ $XRP +18%
β’ $SOL +14.5%
β’ $ADA +32%
Trade war: the beginning of the end or a new round of pressure?
In February this year, Donald Trump initiated new trade conflicts by imposing significant tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union (EU).
In response, the American people naturally received similar retaliatory measures.
β’ Creating phenomenal volatility.
β’ Breaking through the local lows of the year.
β’ Reducing the trade deficit and increasing control of economic flows in the US.
Right now we are in a zone of high turbulence and every piece of news can send us in absolutely any direction. The motto for the start of this year is huge volatility and destabilisation in all financial markets!
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In the last 48 hours, the market has experienced significant swings, and its main ambassador, of course, has been Donald Trump β whose words move the market like a puppet.
According to this order, the Presidential Working Group will be responsible for forming the crypto reserve, which will include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA.
So, how did it all start...
But on February 28, the crypto summit was announced, which will take place on February 7, and the market responded with some local positivity. This was followed by a kind of warming-up week for the crypto push.
Weβve already seen the news about the reserve, which pumped all the assets listed in it.
Now, we can only wait to see what surprises the summit will bring. And perhaps we will be greeted with a few more big news items before it begins.
π¬ Also, interestingly, Eric Trump commented on his fatherβs tweet:
Β«Itβs time for traditional finance to catch up with the crypto industry, which operates 24/7. The world no longer lives 'from 9 to 5', and if banks and stock markets donβt change, they will disappear.Β»
He called the announcement of the creation of the crypto reserve on Sunday a brilliant move, as Wall Street was out of action.
π Some large companies and individuals have also expressed that the marketβs sharp reaction to Trumpβs post is excessive.
Β«There is no clear plan to create such a reserve in the US, and the presidentβs actions are uncoordinatedΒ», said the TD Cowen team.
TD Cowen is an American investment bank with more than $11 billion under management.
He also opened a position on BTC. To understand his risk:
β’ The ETH position was opened at $2,197, and the liquidation was at $2,149.
β’ The BTC position was opened at $85,908, and the liquidation was at $84,752.
At its peak, the position size reached $100 million in BTC and $150 million in ETH.
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Friends, many of you are likely either trading in the crypto market or simply holding an investment portfolio, so here's a useful post for you.
This can be described in three phrases: false breakout, stop-loss hunting, and liquidations. But let's break down why this happens.
π The Nature of a False Breakout
A false breakout occurs when the price breaks a significant level, but instead of continuing in that direction, it quickly returns.
β It often happens during sideways market movement.
It's no secret that for a price to rise, buyers are needed, and for it to fall, sellers. This is why major players are always looking for where the main liquidity and stop-losses are concentrated.
They move the price to gather as many orders as possible before creating a real market move.
β Short sellers place stops above resistance. β Long traders place stops below support.
β In the case of a false breakout upwards β Market Makers push the price above resistance, triggering short traders' stop orders. Their liquidations create forced buying, which pushes the price higher in the short term
β In the case of a false breakout downwards β the price breaks through support, and long traders' stop-losses turn into market sell orders.
After the stops are triggered, the price quickly reverses because major players have gained liquidity to enter the opposite position.
π¬ But what should those who are encountering these formations for the first time do?
In trading, your best teacher is experience. However, here are some recommendations:
A retest (return to the level) helps confirm the true direction of the price movement.
Useful tools:
β’ Resonance β tracking clusters;
β’ ATAS β tracking volume analysis and order flow.
Liquidity is the fuel of the market. Major players move the price where the most orders are concentrated.
Useful tools:
β’ Bookmap β liquidity and volume visualization;
β’ Hyblock β monitoring liquidations and liquidity zones.
Use these tools, learn, observe yourself, and over time, you'll see how the chart becomes more readable.
.
Do you trade crypto?
π₯ β Yes, actively
π§ β No
π³ β I would like to learn
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friends, bitcoin dominance has touched the trend line, which has existed for almost 8 years (each touch led to the season of alts)
Confirmation of all this, you can see on the chart.
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Friends, the image above summarizes the rationale behind the current administrationβs actions and the reasons why they negatively impact the market in the short term.
To achieve this, tariffs are introduced, causing uncertainty in the markets. As a result, investors start selling stocks and buying bonds, which lowers their yields.
Although tariffs typically lead to higher inflation and should, in theory, increase bond yields, the opposite is happening: fear in the market is driving investors toward safe-haven assets β specifically, bonds.
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friends, US President Donald Trump has approved an executive order creating the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Fund.
What is at the core of the crypto reserve?
The bulk of the assets are previously confiscated and seized cryptocurrencies. Simply put, the very BTC and altcoins that the government received after scams, court cases and investigations.
How is the reserve structured?
What does this mean for the market?
Even if you don't have large sums of money, it's worth starting to accumulate BTC. This is not financial advice, but history is being made right now. Those who realise this today will find themselves in a win-win situation tomorrow.
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Friends, yesterday the highly anticipated crypto summit took place, and here are the key takeaways that were discussed:
β The United States is already one of the largest holders of BTC, with about 200,000 BTC.
β The Treasury Department and the Department of Commerce will explore ways to acquire additional BTC reserves.
β We are concluding Operation Β«ChokePoint 2.0Β» (the de-banking of the crypto industry).
β I want stablecoin legislation passed before the August recess. America will never sell its BTC.
β Assets not related to BTC will be stored in a separate vault.
β We will focus a lot on creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins and end the repression of the crypto industry.
β We will cancel and amend all previous recommendations from the IRS regarding cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin is no longer just Β«digital goldΒ», but a strategic asset. It will be accumulated and held, with no pressure from potential government sell-offs, and finally, a regulatory framework for stablecoins will emerge.
And this is just what was said openly to the press. What was discussed behind closed doors β weβll find out or see later.
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Friends, mistakes are an inevitable part of trading, one of its most important components. You probably know this, but many traders still get very stressed about losing trades.
Letβs go through a few useful principles that will not only help minimize mistakes but also manage them properly.
Any trading idea should be falsifiable β before entering a trade, you should have a set of conditions under which your hypothesis becomes irrelevant.
If there are no such conditions, you are trading blindly and cannot objectively assess your risk.
Planning for invalidation is not enough β you also need to stick to it. A classic example of poor risk management:
Entering a trade with full risk β the price moves against you β adding to the losing position β refusing to sell the position β a large loss.
Some traders justify this by the desire to be flexible, but flexibility should be built into the analysis before entry, not appear after the fact when the situation gets out of control.
The size of your position should match the probability profile of the setup:
β’ Higher risk for rare but highly effective setups that bring in the main profit.
β’ Lower risk for standard, frequently occurring setups with a positive expected value.
The key is to not exceed the established risk limits. Increasing the position in a losing trade creates a synthetic losing streak and can lead to catastrophic consequences.
A streak of losses is inevitable even in a successful strategy. The greatest damage happens when small mistakes turn into a series of catastrophic failures:
β’ Trading out of spite or revenge against the market.
β’ Doubling down on losing positions.
β’ Sharply increasing risk after losses.
However, this happens all the time in trading.
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Friends, yesterday Wall Street experienced one of its worst days in the past three years. In just 24 hours, $1.7 trillion was wiped off the U.S. stock market.
And since February 20, total losses have reached $4.5 trillion.
β S&P 500: -5.04%
β Nasdaq: -4.04%
β Dow Jones: -2.48%
Tech giants posted their worst performance since 2020. A broad correction is underway, fear is spreading, and investors are fleeing risk assets.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow this trend with about a 20-day lag.
If the theory holds true, we might see a fresh price surge and a reversal for BTC in the coming weeks. However, it's important to note that not all M2 liquidity flows into risk assets.
β Some are buying gold, others prefer bonds, and some are simply moving into cash.
Financial markets move in cycles. Right now, weβre in a downturn marked by panic and risk-off behavior.
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Friends, today I was analyzing various indicators and I want to draw your attention to one key fact:
Even when BTC reaches ~$72,000, long positions will be liquidated by no more than $100 million.
This is a clear sign that short positions are currently dominating the market.
β This imbalance needs to be addressed, so I am focused on a good rally to the upside to harvest the available liquidity and change market sentiment.
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Friends, it's likely that some altcoins have been sitting in a drawdown in your wallets for a long time, and you're thinking: "I'll hold until the end, growth is inevitable!"
On one hand, this is a valid statement, but what if most people are thinking this way, and the rule "95% of people lose money" has stopped working...
Trading volumes on leading CEXs significantly dropped in February β the total spot volume fell by 21%.
Notably, Upbit lost 46% of its total volume, and Kraken saw a 27% decrease.
Try answering this question: What kind of news event could suddenly push the market up now? β Itβs difficult to say.
A lot has already happened that we would not have believed just a year ago β theoretically, the market should be in much better shape.
But perhaps, this is exactly what will force the market to finally clean itself up and enter a growth phase?!
At the same time, many news stories come out: approval of staking on ETH-ETF, the start of quantitative easing, approval of ETFs for SOL and XRP, etc.
Itβs easy to imagine whatβs going on in people's minds: "Thatβs it, altcoins are dead. The market is full of positivity, but weβre only going down β it seems better to sell and preserve whatβs left."
The key is to adapt it to current conditions.
In this cycle, we might see how key news will only start to play out after a few months. Weβve seen this happen many times in history.
For example, in November 2008, the Fed announced a large-scale asset (bond) buyback, but the S&P 500 continued to fall for several months after the announcement β recession fears were stronger.
Only in March 2009 did the powerful bull run begin, lasting for years. It took 4 months for the market to "believe" in the positivity of QE.
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π¨ New negativity against MicroStrategy β are we falling again?
Friends, more and more people on social media are comparing MicroStrategy to LUNA and FTX, calling it the next potential liquidation that could drag the market down.
π€ Since its first purchase in 2020, the company has accumulated more than 193,000 BTC, using not only its own funds but also borrowed capital.
The main question: Could MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin assets? Many are concerned that a drop in BTC price could lead to a margin call and mass selling.
π How are MicroStrategyβs finances structured?
1οΈβ£ Debt Structure:
β’ $7.2 billion in total debt, of which $2.2 billion is secured by BTC.
β’ Convertible bonds ($2.2 billion) with low interest rates and maturities in 2028-2030.
β’ $2.2 billion in fixed-rate bonds with no liquidation requirements.
β’ $2.8 billion in secured loans, with BTC serving as collateral.
2οΈβ£ Margin Calls and Liquidation:
β’ MicroStrategy took a margin loan from Silvergate ($205 million) secured by BTC, but this loan was paid off in 2023.
β’ The company currently has no urgent margin loan obligations that could trigger forced liquidation.
β’ If BTC drops to $10,000, MicroStrategy could still provide additional BTC as collateral.
π₯ Why isnβt MicroStrategy liquidating?
β’ The company does not use highly risky leverage.
β’ Its long-term obligations have low interest rates and deferred maturities.
β’ Margin calls are unlikely due to the flexible collateral structure.
β Key takeaway: the myth of MicroStrategy being forced to liquidate is an exaggeration. The company confidently continues its BTC-buying strategy and is not at risk, even during major market upheavals π₯
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Friends, more and more people on social media are comparing MicroStrategy to LUNA and FTX, calling it the next potential liquidation that could drag the market down.
MicroStrategy has long been a symbol of corporate BTC accumulation.
The main question: Could MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin assets? Many are concerned that a drop in BTC price could lead to a margin call and mass selling.
Let's break down the real situation.
β’ $7.2 billion in total debt, of which $2.2 billion is secured by BTC.
β’ Convertible bonds ($2.2 billion) with low interest rates and maturities in 2028-2030.
β’ $2.2 billion in fixed-rate bonds with no liquidation requirements.
β’ $2.8 billion in secured loans, with BTC serving as collateral.
β’ MicroStrategy took a margin loan from Silvergate ($205 million) secured by BTC, but this loan was paid off in 2023.
β’ The company currently has no urgent margin loan obligations that could trigger forced liquidation.
β’ If BTC drops to $10,000, MicroStrategy could still provide additional BTC as collateral.
β’ The company does not use highly risky leverage.
β’ Its long-term obligations have low interest rates and deferred maturities.
β’ Margin calls are unlikely due to the flexible collateral structure.
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Friends, if you're feeling down because of a dip in your portfolio, keep in mind β Trump is also sitting in the red.
Trumpβs portfolio is currently down by $124 million!
Heβs riding out this drawdown right alongside us. This man clearly didnβt pick his coins randomly β I believe he knows very well that thereβs light at the end of the tunnel and the long-awaited altcoin rally is coming.
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