Comrades, hello, everyone. We will start discussing this topic with charts. V-shaped reversals are observed on many assets now, which adds confidence in the market strength and in the continuation of the uptrend.
Let's face it β the charts look much better today than they did a couple days ago.
Even Trump said today β Β«the emergence of DeepSeek is a positive, because competition always leads to developmentΒ».
NVIDIA lost $589 billion in capitalization in a single trading session, and the U.S. stock market as a whole lost $2 trillion.
For comparison, that's the equivalent of bitcoin's entire capitalization. Just think about this scale.
By the way, this comparison clearly shows that the crypto market has a huge potential for growth. Even in moments of global panic and market revaluation, crypto still has prospects for further development.
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Friends, a dually important piece of news broke today: US Senator Cynthia Lummis today officially announced (live on air) plans to make the country's strategic reserve in bitcoin, viz:
β’ Buy 200,000 BTC annually for 5 years.
β’ Hold for at least 20 years.
π The goal of this whole endeavor is to cut the US national debt in half in 20 years. Here I have a couple of complaints as an economist, then we'll talk about it more closely.
A very loud statement that should attract a huge amount of liquidity into the market. After such news, many people who are not even related to crypto will run to buy :)
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After Trump's election victory, the Ripple token (XRP) rose almost 500%: from $0.55 to $3.4. For two and a half months, the growth has not stopped.
This immediately begs the question: has such dramatic growth run out of steam?
In early January, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse met with Trump. The news immediately fueled rumors of high level support for XRP and the early launch of an ETF.
A test version of CME Group's website appeared on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's βbeta.cmegroupβ subdomain announcing the launch of SOL and XRP futures on Feb. 10. The site is said to have posted the page by mistake.
The exchange has already announced orders for spot ETH-SOL. On timing: the market still expects a launch no earlier than mid-March.
There have been no official announcements on XRP yet.
The number of addresses holding XRP worth $100k or more grew from 14k to 108.5k in just two months immediately after Trump's victory.
Trump himself is not giving any statement on the coin. Moreover, his fund World Liberty Financial, which just invested in ETH, TRX, AAVE and other tokens, has no investment in Ripple.
In mid-December 2024, the New York Department of Financial Services approved Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin RLUSD for trading. The start of testing began back in April.
Garlinghouse expects the asset to become the βgold standard for the corporate sectorβ and will be in demand for RWA, DeFi and classic payments.
Against this backdrop, XRP jumped 10% in a couple hours. In general, it is already on the third line of the largest cryptocurrencies by capitalization.
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Friends, in case anyone missed it, on Wednesday there was a Fed meeting β as a result, the rate was left at the same level (4.5%)
The market reacted to the news with a slight correction of 1.5%, but soon rebounded and quickly recovered to the initial levels ($103,800).
The fundamentals around crypto are getting stronger. Every day new states are considering BTC strategic reserve bills.
β The first reviews and approvals for altcoin ETF applications have begun, and Litecoin is one of the top contenders.
I have attached to the post a chart of the difference between the capitalizations of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the current cycle. I have a feeling the slingshot is being drawn for the shot.
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Friends, after Solana's recent new all-time high of $295, caused by a number of major meme token launches on this blockchain, many people started claiming that it's time to move money from ETH to SOL.
To better understand the situation, it's worth going back to the origins of the launch of Ethereum and how the crowd treated it.
It seemed to be one of the underdogs, as it did not react in any way to the growth of bitcoin.
In addition, at the end of 2020, when ETH was trading at $500-600 after the ATH of $1400 at that time, many people were sure that altcoins would never be on par with bitcoin.
The main reason: institutional investors had already arrived, and altcoins weren't taking off.
β At that moment, the price of ETH was around $1,700, but there were still claims that Ethereum was on the verge of decline. But despite this skepticism, it was back on top again.
Moreover, instead of the usual horizontal accumulation, we witnessed a sharp Β«verticalΒ» growth.
It is definitely not worth burying ETH. It still has a huge potential, which can be realized thanks to the interest of large capitals.
Trump is actively accumulating ether through his fund Trump's World Liberty.
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Friends, Solana was below $180! Ethereum is at 2100. Bitcoin is almost $90k.
So what happened in the market?
This is a Β«classicΒ» macroeconomic factor, which unfortunately reduces our deposit.
In short, these info provocation, prospectively do not pose a threat to the crypto market, it is just a narrative to knock out your margin and spot positions in order to grow them later, but without you.
By the way, why it's profitable: overnight, over $2.5 billion of positions were liquidated in the market.
The task of the one who draws us the chart is to create the ideal conditions under which he will throw as many holdings overboard as possible.
The market is giving us tons of opportunities right now (but unfortunately not all people have money left for additional purchases), $JUP, $ETH, $APT, $WIF β what they are giving us right now to buy back at very sweet prices.
It is important to take into account that the very landing, should make as many people as possible to get out, and therefore, to understand which of the moments for entry or exit will be ideal, guessing is very, very difficult.
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Friends, the Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial (WLF) platform has grown its cryptocurrency portfolio to nearly $350 million in recent days, with more than $100 million invested in ETH in just 24 hours.
Those close to the project are talking about the presidential administration's grand plans for ether. Getting to the bottom of it...
On January 19, WLF acquired more than 25k ETH, increasing its portfolio to nearly 42k coins worth $141 million.
It's notable that this happened exactly the day before the inauguration - they were probably expecting a bull rally to start right after the presidency began.
Back in late November 2024, the project only owned $55 million worth of crypto β two months later, the portfolio was 6 times larger.
β’ ETH and $215 million worth of liquid stETH staking tokens;
β’ a wrapped version of bitcoin WBTC at $50 million;
β’ TRX, AAVE, LINK and ENA for $25 million;
β’ USDC and USDT stablecoins and other coins for $60 million.
If the US does integrate ETH into government processes, the coin could see tremendous growth - which is probably why it makes up over 60% of WLF's portfolio.
The active buying of Ethereum has coincided with a massive change in the Ethereum Foundation (EF) organization.
Previously, the foundation used ETH exclusively to sell tokens, pay grants, and create event tickets. Buterin refused to staking due to regulatory risks and conflicts of interest.
But recently Vitalik announced that he was ready for staking, but the question of expediency arose: it would have brought the fund $26 million in annual revenue, while spending $135 million.
At the same time, the other day a wallet controlled by the fund was registered, which conducted a transaction for 50k ETH. On January 21, EF said that this wallet will be used for the fund's participation in DeFi projects.
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Friends, I'll start my post with a brief excerpt and reaction to a conference that took place a couple days ago, where David Sacks, who Trump appointed to be the Β«crypto czarΒ», spoke.
β Frankly, we are coming out of four years of arbitrary harassment and persecution of crypto companies.
β We're excited to work on regulating stablecoins.
β We want to make a βgolden age of cryptocurrency.β
β The feasibility of creating a reserve in bitcoins is being explored.
Despite such a positive statement, many people have started to turn negative. But why?
In fact, what is happening now is a new reality that we haven't seen before! The mere statement that 4 years of crypto stalking is behind us and now a new era with a green light for projects and developers is beginning should say a lot.
Let's remember the reasons for the stagnation and prolonged depression of the market in 22/23 years.
The prolonged market depression was largely due to the total pressure on crypto β regulation squeezed projects and investors. The pressure occurred simply on the back of the fact that there was not this very clear and understandable legal framework.
β The market is being untied
β A clear legal framework will appear
β A renaissance of ICOs and new forms of capital raising is possible.
But not everything is so simple...
There has also been a lot of talk about regulation. Let's not forget that regulation is not the absence of rules, but their clear presence.
The market will undergo a large-scale cleanup, and only the Β«strongΒ» will survive.
And who are these Β«strongΒ»? Those who are now in Trump's entourage, moving their projects forward. They are the ones who will get the funding, attention and liquidity.
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Friends, found an informative and soothing chart picture for you. It can especially help psychologically those who are currently sitting in a drawdown on their portfolio.
We have already seen a similar situation in December 2017 and 2020 - a sharp drop in the ALTS/BTC pair before a strong rise.
We can look for tons of reasons why we might rise or fall, but the fact remains that bitcoin dominance is beating local ATHs, BTC is holding near tops, and there has been no liquidity spillover from bitcoin to other assets on this rise yet.
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Friends, now I see that many in the media space are waiting for a continuation of correction and another fall below $90k.
Considering the current negative funder, I have specifically marked on the chart all the points where the market has already reached similar levels.
Now you will be able to see these key points in momentum.
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Friends, I like the way BTC/ETH/SOL reacted today to another statement in the commodity war between China and the US. Many expected a repeat reaction similar to the first time, but this time it's different.
β’ Funding at super highs
β’ A large number of people sitting in leveraged positions
β’ Overweight to longs (which, the big player of course wanted to take and capitalize on)
Any minimal negativity could have triggered a cascade of liquidations. Now the price behavior shows that the FUD around the duties has already been fully taken into account by the market, and further such news will not become a trigger for sell-offs and falls.
Two V-shaped buybacks point to a possible bullish week.
Additional positivity:
β The BTC chart is looking strong
β ETFs continue to flood with money
β ETH is ahead of BTC in terms of inflows (almost 2x!)
P.S. On the chart you can see my long-standing prediction. So far it's going according to planπ₯
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In recent years, the crypto sector has not only demonstrated rapid growth but also a noticeable reduction in the lifespan of narratives.
Whereas previously altcoins held attention for 1-2 years, memes now only last a few quarters, and the AI-token theme was hyped for just a couple of months.
β 2021-2022: Fundamental alts (L1, L2) β lasted 1-2 years (Solana, Arbitrum).
β 2023: Memecoins β hype lasted several quarters (Pepe, Bonk, WIF).
β 2024: AI-theme β from 2 to 8 weeks for each wave (Bittensor, FET, RNDR).
Now, many are burning out within the first 72 hours.
It must be acknowledged that the market has become more speculative and less stable. Money moves faster, and holding positions requires instant reactions.
Previously, the capital rotation looked like this: BTC β ETH β Large-cap alts β Small-cap alts β Memecoins.
Now everything compresses much faster β traders instantly look for the next 10x asset.
On Twitter, trends can catch fire in a matter of minutes. We've seen it happen where a token launch gets picked up by a famous influencer, and within a few hours/days, itβs too late to get in because the asset is overheated.
Itβs no longer enough to be Β«earlyΒ»; you need to be more adaptable and quicker.
In the past, you could hold assets for several years more calmly, but now new narratives work on a time frame. If a non-fundamental asset hasnβt performed within a few weeks, itβs unlikely to yield any returns.
β Twitter bots instantly identify trending words.
β Telegram bots buy alts before those who go in manually.
β Degens with expensive scripts get in before those using Telegram bots.
Algorithmic trading speeds up the cycle: if a trend hasnβt gained critical mass β it dies.
Always keep in mind that the lifespan of a trend is limited β no matter how clichΓ© it sounds.
For more efficient action, you can specifically create AI agents for yourself and subscribe to analytical services for Twitter (for example, Kaito).
This has always been the case, but now there are many more Β«early birdsΒ» due to the appearance of Β«easy moneyΒ».
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Friends, remember the idea: there are no accidents in the crypto market. Especially when the biggest players start moving volumes a day before the global dump.
What happened?
It's simple: Ethereum is a key liquidation point for the entire DeFi sector. Its fall automatically triggers a chain reaction of liquidations on DeFi lending platforms, destroys margin positions, which pulls the whole market down.
The conclusion is that this is not just a dump β it's a controlled liquidation designed to knock out positions before the next leg of the move.
Give it a π₯ if you like these investigative posts
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Friends, I have some news. Ethereum is up over 5% in the last 24 hours on the back of staking filings for ETF-ETH.
That said, there are more and more shorts on ether, which opens the door for a cascade of liquidations and a powerful short-squeeze (surge).
β Feb. 28-March 5 Pectra network update comes out, it will improve ETH performance.
β Feb. 18 FTX begins returning $16 billion to clients, first phase of $7 billion in refunds.
β Likely launch of new altcoin ETFs and inclusion of staking in ETH ETFs.
β State reserves may start buying not only BTC, but also ETH with top altcoins.
β Large volumes of ETH are being withdrawn from CEX exchanges, reducing selling pressure.
β Large wallets continue to accumulate ETH at current levels.
NO PAIN, NO GAIN π³
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Friends, hello everyone. I think everyone is already aware of what's going on if you're following the news background. In a nutshell, CZ revealed the name of his dog Broccoli in a post on Twitter.
It looks like CZ and team want to launch a BSC season on their blockchain.
Which means they are working on the growth of the network's native coin, BNB, trading volumes on DEX, and of course, meme season on the BSC blockchain β as the main narrative of this bull cycle.
It was one of the toughest PvP-fights between traders and degens in history.
The amount of scam coins within a minute of CZ's post was such that it's hard to even count. Tokens with the same tickers appeared by the dozens, but in the end only a few survived.
This particular dog is in the best position right now β link (not an advertisement)
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Friends, this story wasn't because of another anonym who scammed hamsters by hacking some official's Twitter.
The token was created in a hurry: the investor form led to a Google survey, and the domain, purchased hours before the launch, was registered for only one year.
At its peak, LIBRA's capitalization reached $4.5 billion and daily trading volume was $1.1 billion. In the first three hours, insiders withdrew $87.4 million, causing the price to plummet.
KIP Protocol, who work closely with the Argentine president, are also said to be behind the creation of the token or its promotion. Here's what they stated in their tweet:
π¬ LIBRA is not a rag. KIP is involved in the project, but our main role is to help distribute funds to Argentine companies, not to manage the token.
Milei deleted his original post, saying he was simply supporting a private project he knew nothing about. He called the organizers of the scam Β«dirty ratsΒ».
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Friends, the story with scam memcoin linked to the president of Argentina has moved to a new level β now regulators are seriously looking into it.
I wouldn't be surprised if high-level proceedings are already underway. How can this affect ETH and its ecosystem?
The answer is meme tokens, AI agents and other narratives that have fueled the influx of liquidity and retail players onto this blockchain.
In other words, it fueled trust in the ecosystem and motivated to hold SOL.
If aggressive FUD in the media is added to this, the consequences could be catastrophic. Already analysts are finding traces of involvement of major Solana projects like Jupiter in this story.
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Friends, saw an interesting statistic today β the number of active addresses in SOLANA network has decreased from 18.5 million (in November) to only 8.4 million as of today.
The recent correction on SOL has forced many to exit this asset.
Even today I came across a whale address, which was bought today by Solana for $7.89 million.
This tells us that the current values can be freely considered as favorable marks for additional positions.
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Friends, many traders and investors experience strong emotions when looking at their portfolio numbers.
Some feel nostalgic for the times when the balance was higher, others feel like a millionaire after seeing 7 digits on the screen.
If your deposit looks impressive today, it's no guarantee that the numbers won't halve or even more tomorrow. Similarly, if the balance is down, it doesn't mean you're poorer than yesterday until you record a loss.
The main trap is the feeling that if the portfolio has reached a certain point, then it's βyourβ money. But it isn't β¬οΈ
β’ Ignoring market changes β traders think that once a strategy has worked, it will always work.
β’ Aggressively increasing positions β when growth seems endless, risk starts to seem insignificant.
β’ Ego and complacency β success is written off only on one's own abilities, not the market.
Money is lost at every stage: it is difficult to catch the top point for profit taking, not every pullback leads to growth, and excessive trading activity often brings losses.
Do you have enough patience when working in crypto?
π₯ β Yes, everything is good
π³ β It can be emotionally difficult
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Friends, there are, as always, two answers to this question. The same graph is superimposed on two completely different situations β see the picture.
Most analysts give March-April a chance, saying that if nothing happens in these months, we can go on a six-month holiday.
But we know how the market works β and more often than not, it goes against the crowd's expectations.
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Over the last 24 hours, quite a lot has happened that directly affects the crypto market, so I decided to make a small squeeze of the most important things for you.
I don't usually do this kind of thing, but today it's necessary.
β’ Accepted for consideration to add staking to 21Shares' Ethereum ETF.
β’ Accepted for consideration for launch of Ripple ETF from Canary Capital.
BTC ETFs recorded net outflows of -$65m.
. ETH ETFs net inflows of +$19m (a big positive).
As you can see β there is a lot of positive news here. And now let's talk a little bit more about the first one.
DOGE (Deportament of Government Efficiency) uncovered billions of dollars worth of fraud this month, in the future they plan to send the savings to Americans = helicopter money.
During past helicopter money ~$1200 in 2020 could buy 0.17 BTC. Now it's ~$17,000 π
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